General Elections. The Constituency of Tipperary

Wrongway1985

realdanbreen wrote: »

Well it's true that we are not as sophisticated as our city cousins who pay more for everything from housing, insurance, drink, spend hours stuck in traffic every day and end up voting in such inspiring TD's as Shane Ross or Paul Murphy !

Both better than what we have on offer says even more.

touts

Tipperary featured in six key constituencies article on RTE. They say polls indicate Healy's seat is the one in play.

http://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/1111/1010076-election-constituencies

digzy

touts wrote: »

Tipperary featured in six key constituencies article on RTE. They say polls indicate Healy's seat is the one in play.

http://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/1111/1010076-election-constituencies

Think at the last election Kelly was last man home..
Hard not to see fg take a seat

jem

Not a hope that FF will take a second seat.

elperello

jem wrote: »

Not a hope that FF will take a second seat.

It's hard to see how they could.
I'd say if Farrell goes well she will be building for future top billing.

touts

elperello wrote: »

It's hard to see how they could.
I'd say if Farrell goes well she will be building for future top billing.

There is no doubt she's ambitious. Switching from Labour to FF because Kelly was blocking her career path shows that. Given her background I'd say she'll have to do very well to ever get through a FF convention never mind be top of a ticket. I just can't see her doing well. She has no Fianna Fail base support and her core Labour support are all sown up by Kelly. It really is a strange selection and indicates something is very wrong in FF in Tipperary. Surely they could have found someone to be Cahill's running mate from the ranks of their existing membership if not their councillors without having to poach a candidate from Labour.

by8auj6csd3ioq

touts wrote: »

There is no doubt she's ambitious. Switching from Labour to FF because Kelly was blocking her career path shows that. Given her background I'd say she'll have to do very well to ever get through a FF convention never mind be top of a ticket. I just can't see her doing well. She has no Fianna Fail base support and her core Labour support are all sown up by Kelly. It really is a strange selection and indicates something is very wrong in FF in Tipperary. Surely they could have found someone to be Cahill's running mate from the ranks of their existing membership if not their councillors without having to poach a candidate from Labour.

she is no different to any. they all follow the votes. That is all they really care about

elperello

I see a report in today's Irish Times that Teneo is to sponsor the Tipperary Hurling and Football teams at minor and senior starting on January 1. The sponsorship deal is valued at €180,000 pa.

Teneo founder and CEO is Declan Kelly, Alan Kelly's brother.

Congratulations are pouring in this evening to Councillor Imelda Goldsboro, who has just been added to the Fianna Fáil ticket in Co. Tipperary, joining current incumbent TD Jackie Cahill, and Sandra Farrell.

Cllr Goldsboro told tipperarylive.ie that the Fianna Fáil team are confident of winning at least two seats in the Premier County, and she stands a strong chance as the contender representing south Tipperary. Cllr Goldsboro was first elected to Tipperary Co. Council in 2014, and has a strong interest in highlighting mental health issues, rural communities, and transport.

touts

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Congratulations are pouring in this evening to Councillor Imelda Goldsboro, who has just been added to the Fianna Fáil ticket in Co. Tipperary, joining current incumbent TD Jackie Cahill, and Sandra Farrell.

Cllr Goldsboro told tipperarylive.ie that the Fianna Fáil team are confident of winning at least two seats in the Premier County, and she stands a strong chance as the contender representing south Tipperary. Cllr Goldsboro was first elected to Tipperary Co. Council in 2014, and has a strong interest in highlighting mental health issues, rural communities, and transport.

She'll be lucky to make it past the first count. But I suppose at least she's a member of FF so that's progress for them.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Congratulations are pouring in this evening to Councillor Imelda Goldsboro, who has just been added to the Fianna Fáil ticket in Co. Tipperary, joining current incumbent TD Jackie Cahill, and Sandra Farrell.

Cllr Goldsboro told tipperarylive.ie that the Fianna Fáil team are confident of winning at least two seats in the Premier County, and she stands a strong chance as the contender representing south Tipperary. Cllr Goldsboro was first elected to Tipperary Co. Council in 2014, and has a strong interest in highlighting mental health issues, rural communities, and transport.

She’s a hard worker, but I doubt that she’s any chance of being elected. She’s too new to the game. She should concentrate on her base and build on it. Preferably as an independent!

golfball37

Jackie Cahills seat in serious peril now imo

They’re spreading themselves too thin. Siobhan Ambrose was the obvious running mate to Jackie Cahill. http://tippfm.com/news/politics/unrest-within-fianna-fail-tipperary/

MarkR

Deleted an unsubstantiated accusation. If you have more facts, let us know.

julyjane

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They’re spreading themselves too thin. Siobhan Ambrose was the obvious running mate to Jackie Cahill. http://tippfm.com/news/politics/unrest-within-fianna-fail-tipperary/

she's had at least 2 cracks of the whip IIRC, 2016 and 2007 I can't remember if she ran in 2011 but I definitely met her on the canvas trail in 2007 because I had my newborn baby with me. as an aside I like keeping newspapers from the day my children were born and about a year ago I was looking at the 2007 one and the political promises would make you laugh.

Cllr Goldsboro is well liked in her area AFAIK but FF are taking a huge gamble running 3 candidates I can't see them returning 2 seats they'll be doing well to hold onto the one they have

touts

julyjane wrote: »

she's had at least 2 cracks of the whip IIRC, 2016 and 2007 I can't remember if she ran in 2011 but I definitely met her on the canvas trail in 2007 because I had my newborn baby with me. as an aside I like keeping newspapers from the day my children were born and about a year ago I was looking at the 2007 one and the political promises would make you laugh.

Cllr Goldsboro is well liked in her area AFAIK but FF are taking a huge gamble running 3 candidates I can't see them returning 2 seats they'll be doing well to hold onto the one they have

Ambrose has had at least two shots at it but I think they should have gone for either herself or Smith Jr as at least they have name recognition from previous elections. Maybe a decent, but losing, performance by Ambrose could have led to a senate nod from the Taoiseach if FF were in power with the view of challenging for Healy's Clonmel based seat in the election after that. Goldsboro may be liked in her immediate area (Fethard I believe) but she is pretty much unknown outside of that. I like to follow politics and honestly I know nothing about the woman. It has all the hall marks of that Murphy lady that FG ran in a panic for Gender quota issues last time. Did she even get into triple figures in the final vote? Goldsboro has the whiff of a panic selection by FF especially if the reports of a revolt by members at the selection of Farrell. Come the general election Goldsboro will be out in the first count and will struggle to get her deposit back.

julyjane

probably hoping to get back some of Mattie's ex FF support in the south of the county too. Siobhan Ambrose and Mattie may have been on the same side of the referendum campaign to repeal the 8th. I didn't hear that she was or wasn't but I asked her in 2016 when she called to my door and she said she wouldn't be in favour of any changes to the constitution with regard to the 8th amendment.

touts

So looks like Leo is going to the park on Tuesday and we'll all be voting on February 7th. Who are the runners and racers in Tipperary? Any change likely?

Michael Lowry. Will comfortably top the poll and retain his seat. Somehow it is his until he dies.

Mattie McGrath. Came second last time and probably will again as he has maintained his staunch Christian rural profile for his target voters.

Seamus Healy. Has a lock on Clonmel and that seems to be enough to get him over the line.

Alan Kelly should hold his seat. He has been very quite over the last couple of years but for him thats a good thing. But his old Nenagh labour party foe Sandra Farrell has transferred to Fianna Fail and will take some votes from him. That'll hurt him until she goes out and then they will all go back to him and should see him home.

After that it becomes interesting (or boring depending on your view).

Jackie Cahill's seat is probably in play. He has done nothing for the last couple of years. His running mates aren't going to help him as they are either really Labour candidates (Farrell) who will transfer to Kelly or unknown outside their immediate family members (Goldsboro). But who will take the seat from him. Fine Gael's Gareth Ahern really struggled to win a seat in the local elections and Kate O'Connell's sister is a Dublin candidate not really interested in or interesting to the Tipperary voter. Plus if the election becomes one about the health service and overcrowding in Clonmel Hospital then I can't see either of them winning a seat. After that who is there? There is no one else. Could Lowry or McGrath run one of their kids as a running mate to take a second seat. Unlikely. Have Sinn Fein or the Social Democrats a big name they are keeping secret? Even more unlikely. Really have no idea who will take the final seat. It will be a case of last one standing between about 4 or 5 dull unappealing candidates.

touts

touts wrote: »

So looks like Leo is going to the park on Tuesday and we'll all be voting on February 7th. Who are the runners and racers in Tipperary? Any change likely?

Michael Lowry. Will comfortably top the poll and retain his seat. Somehow it is his until he dies.

Mattie McGrath. Came second last time and probably will again as he has maintained his staunch Christian rural profile for his target voters.

Seamus Healy. Has a lock on Clonmel and that seems to be enough to get him over the line.

Alan Kelly should hold his seat. He has been very quite over the last couple of years but for him thats a good thing. But his old Nenagh labour party for Sandra Farrell has transferred to Fianna Fail and will take some votes from him. That'll hurt him until she goes out and then they will all go back to him and should see him home.

After that it becomes interesting (or boring depending on your view).

Jackie Cahill's seat is probably in play. He has done nothing for the last couple of years. His running mates aren't going to help him as they are either really Labour candidates (Farrell) who will transfer to Kelly or unknown outside their immediate family members (Goldsboro). But who will take the seat from him. Fine Gael's Gareth Ahern really struggled to win a seat in the local elections and Kate O'Connell's sister is a Dublin candidate not really interested in or interesting to the Tipperary voter. Plus if the election becomes one about the health service and overcrowding in Clonmel Hospital then I can't see either of them winning a seat. After that who is there? There is no one else. Could Lowry or McGrath run one of their kids as a running mate to take a second seat. Unlikely. Have Sinn Fein or the Social Democrats a big name they are keeping secret? Even more unlikely. Really have no idea who will take the final seat. It will be a case of last one standing between about 4 or 5 dull unappealing candidates.

Imelda Goldsboro is very popular in her area and could cost Jackie Cahill his seat by splitting the FF vote and letting another in.

touts

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Imelda Goldsboro is very popular in her area and could cost Jackie Cahill his seat by splitting the FF vote and letting another in.

Possibly. But her area is Fethard (I think) and that's very small. She'll do some damage to Cahill but I think she'll go out in the first couple of counts so any votes he loses will go back to him then. Fianna Fail really lack any serious candidate in the South of the county. Whatever happens I agree Cahill is in serious danger of losing his seat and if he retains it that will be because no one came to take it off him.

LuasSimon

3 independents , 1 labour and 1FF last time . One of the few constituencies that didn’t elect a Fine Gael TD last time . You’d imagine there would be enough rich farmers in tipperary to get a Fine Gael candidate elected but their soft approach to traveller crime and their Black and Tan commemoration will hurt them in many rural constituencies . No Change

mahoney_j

Alan Kelly will do way better this time ,has delievered on lots of projects in terms of jobs and money in ,lowry ,mattie and Kelly are certainties anyone’s guess after that

touts

touts wrote: »

Possibly. But her area is Fethard (I think) and that's very small. She'll do some damage to Cahill but I think she'll go out in the first couple of counts so any votes he loses will go back to him then. Fianna Fail really lack any serious candidate in the South of the county. Whatever happens I agree Cahill is in serious danger of losing his seat and if he retains it that will be because no one came to take it off him.

She’s FF Councillor for Carrick on Suir municipal area, which covers a large area of the south of the county. I wouldn’t rule her out. She’s a very hard worker. Pity she’s FF!

CúilChip

touts wrote: »

So looks like Leo is going to the park on Tuesday and we'll all be voting on February 7th. Who are the runners and racers in Tipperary? Any change likely?

Michael Lowry. Will comfortably top the poll and retain his seat. Somehow it is his until he dies.

Mattie McGrath. Came second last time and probably will again as he has maintained his staunch Christian rural profile for his target voters.

Seamus Healy. Has a lock on Clonmel and that seems to be enough to get him over the line.

Alan Kelly should hold his seat. He has been very quite over the last couple of years but for him thats a good thing. But his old Nenagh labour party foe Sandra Farrell has transferred to Fianna Fail and will take some votes from him. That'll hurt him until she goes out and then they will all go back to him and should see him home.

After that it becomes interesting (or boring depending on your view).

Jackie Cahill's seat is probably in play. He has done nothing for the last couple of years. His running mates aren't going to help him as they are either really Labour candidates (Farrell) who will transfer to Kelly or unknown outside their immediate family members (Goldsboro). But who will take the seat from him. Fine Gael's Gareth Ahern really struggled to win a seat in the local elections and Kate O'Connell's sister is a Dublin candidate not really interested in or interesting to the Tipperary voter. Plus if the election becomes one about the health service and overcrowding in Clonmel Hospital then I can't see either of them winning a seat. After that who is there? There is no one else. Could Lowry or McGrath run one of their kids as a running mate to take a second seat. Unlikely. Have Sinn Fein or the Social Democrats a big name they are keeping secret? Even more unlikely. Really have no idea who will take the final seat. It will be a case of last one standing between about 4 or 5 dull unappealing candidates.

Mary Newman Julian (or Kate's sister as you liked to call her) has lived in Tipperary for 20 years and is married to a Tipp man. Plus she is not from Dublin

julyjane

I'm not a FF supporter and won't be voting for them but I'd have a lot of respect for Imelda as a county councillor and I could see a lot of her constituents voting for her. Ultimately a vote for FF is a vote for Mícheál Martin and I'm sceptical about them bringing about any real change. Then again Mícheál Martin is no Bertie Ahern.

The SF candidate seems to be popular in the party whether he'll be enough of a draw to get over the line is another thing. I'd say either himself or Séamus Healy will get in when one is eliminated and transfers to the other.

I'd say it'll be one of them, Lowry, Kenny, one FF and Mattie.

jlm29

Id day it’s highly likely that the five sitting tds will retain their seats, much as id like to see 60-80% of them out in their ears!
I’d say FG haven’t a hope of winning a seat, and unless someone wonderful crawls out of the woodwork in the next few weeks, I wouldn’t think anyone is likely to do enough to take a seat from one of the current TDs

jlm29

jlm29 wrote: »

Id day it’s highly likely that the five sitting tds will retain their seats, much as id like to see 60-80% of them out in their ears!
I’d say FG haven’t a hope of winning a seat, and unless someone wonderful crawls out of the woodwork in the next few weeks, I wouldn’t think anyone is likely to do enough to take a seat from one of the current TDs

I would like to think that you’re wrong, but I’m afraid that you might get it right. Trouble is that apart from Alan Kelly and Jackie Cahill (who will struggle to keep his seat) they’re all pensioners. We need younger, more progressive and modern thinkers.

I like Imelda Goldsboro. She’s young(ish). A hard worker. Personable. Bright. Ambitious.

Seamus Healey is old, stuck in the past. Grumpy old man.

Michael Lowrey is everyone’s darling, well, in North Tipp anyway.

Mattie McG has the rural dwellers ear.

Jackie Cahill is always a step behind. Imelda could split the vote and leave FF out in the cold.

Alan Kelly is a hard worker, young, ambitious, leadership material.

elperello

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112234833&posted=1#post112234833

Just FYI they are saying over on AH that AK has posters up already.
Usual caveats apply.

elperello

elperello wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112234833&posted=1#post112234833

Just FYI they are saying over on AH that AK has posters up already.
Usual caveats apply.

I very much doubt that any of his opponents would have let the opportunity to report these pass! I have seen the reverse of election posters used to promote other events.

jem

touts wrote: »

Michael Lowry. Will comfortably top the poll and retain his seat. Somehow it is his until he dies. Agree

Mattie McGrath. Came second last time and probably will again as he has maintained his staunch Christian rural profile for his target voters. agree

Seamus Healy. Has a lock on Clonmel and that seems to be enough to get him over the line. is there not a rumor that he isnt standing?, if he does think he will be fighting for last seat

Alan Kelly should hold his seat. He has been very quite over the last couple of years but for him thats a good thing. But his old Nenagh labour party foe Sandra Farrell has transferred to Fianna Fail and will take some votes from him. That'll hurt him until she goes out and then they will all go back to him and should see him home. Dont think s farrell will hurt him very much and the money into St conlons, His brothers money into TIPP GAA and the cervical cancer revelations will stand to him. Think he will comfortabley come 2nd or more likly 3rd.

After that it becomes interesting (or boring depending on your view).

Jackie Cahill's seat is probably in play. He has done nothing for the last couple of years. His running mates aren't going to help him as they are either really Labour candidates (Farrell) who will transfer to Kelly or unknown outside their immediate family members (Goldsboro). But who will take the seat from him. Fine Gael's Gareth Ahern really struggled to win a seat in the local elections and Kate O'Connell's sister is a Dublin candidate not really interested in or interesting to the Tipperary voter. Plus if the election becomes one about the health service and overcrowding in Clonmel Hospital then I can't see either of them winning a seat. After that who is there? There is no one else. Could Lowry or McGrath run one of their kids as a running mate to take a second seat. Unlikely. Have Sinn Fein or the Social Democrats a big name they are keeping secret? Even more unlikely. Really have no idea who will take the final seat. It will be a case of last one standing between about 4 or 5 dull unappealing candidates.

Social dems would ignore, cant see SF winning a seat unless Healy doesnt stand so comes down to FF or FG- cahil or either of the FG canidates. Cahil has played what he thinks is smart have 2 running mates one down south and one in Nenagh who would hopefully hurt McGrath and Kelly a bit while not hurting him at all. Will be interesting as to how much of Smith's vote last time gets to Cahil, hearing very mixed opinions as there is very bad blood between the two wings.
Other side is FG canidates are so so week and none in North Tipp. Remember FG votes didnt transfer well between North and South.
Had FG decent canidates and smart locations think they may have taken a seat ( there should be enough FG votes).
I would bet on no change ( assuming Healy stands)