Cheltenham Day 3 - Thursday *READ MOD WARNING POST 203 AND 220

Nulty

Looking at the Ryanair, The field is very evenly balanced.

Hidden Cyclone, I've backed antepost at 16s. He will likely go very close. He's a fair price now being a year older. Theres no Dynaste but there's plenty of other good horses in here. I'd be looking for a bigger price.

A lot of the form ties together. Tanquin De Soil, Uxizandre and Double Ross are all closely matched after their run in the JLT last year. Taquin De Soil won that day, Uxi was a neck behind and has better form this year and Uxi is nearly twice the price. Uxi beat the new Champion Chaser at Cheltenham earlier this year albeit the form is questionable. He has a decent record at the track and if it's Taq and Uxi in the finish, AP will be on Uxi this time round.

Ma Filuille is a good horse and put in a great run at last years festival behind Holywell but hasn't won at the track in four attempts. Seem better suited to flat tracks. She's too short for me in this with that record. Same goes for Balder Succes. Poor record at the track and Short enough for it at 7s.

Foxrocks last performance can't be quantified quite yet but he is the dark horse here. He's progressing nicely and has growing potential. He ran well until he emptied out in the four miler last year. He's on the drift now though. Double figures may be worth taking.

Johns Spririt loves it round Cheltenham. Ran brilliantly off top weight in the Paddy Power but that form is not looking great since. He went very well in the King George before his stamina gave out. He's another on the drift but again, double figures here are very tempting.

Winning form is better than losing form at Cheltenham but losing form is more informative than no form. Eduard ran in a novice hurdle there a few years back and aquitted himself well. He's been set some tough tasks this year and hit the cross bar this year but has been progressing. Giving the Hennessy winner 6lbs and going down a length is good form. He's another dark horse along with Foxrock and very hard to quantify.

Balleycasey is a funny one but was running a big race in the RSA last year before stamina stopped him. He is not without a chance but the worry is whether he'll turn up on the day. At around 28/1 that might be a risk worth taking.

I see no reason why Wonderful Charm can win this. He's well held by at least half the field here. Same goes for Double Ross and Third Intention.

Finally Don Cossack. He's a class horse but again form at Cheltenham is what interests me. He is too short to consider a bet in a race as deep as this at 4/1 so I'm steering clear of him.

The most interesting thing about this race is that Hidden Cyclone and Uxizandre both like to lead which will make this a decent test. I'd like to have a horse with plenty of stamina on my side that can sit in and pick up. With that being the case I can't have either of them. Foxrock and Ballycasey have a decent run at the track under their belt and enough stamina to get through this race. At the prices I'd take Ballycasey to pick up the pieces at 28/1. Win only as he's so unreliable.

malascoile

Does the PP moneyback special for the 1:30 apply for accumaltors or luck 15s?

Niallers87

i think i am going to side with Balder Success in the Ryanair looking at his form he came second to Special Tiara who ran a cracker today, was seven lengths to Dodging bullets who came out and won today and was second previously to Gods Own who came close (only for veering off at a few fences) to winning yesterday, the only negative in all this is he is 0-3 around Cheltenham!!

jobeenfitz

malascoile wrote: »

Does the PP moneyback special for the 1:30 apply for accumaltors or luck 15s?

No, see conditions:

CONDITIONS

If your horse finishes second or third in the 13:30 JLT Novices Chase at Cheltenham, we'll refund your losing single stake as a free bet. Applies to singles only. Applies to win singles and the win part of each way singles only. Applies to Win or Each Way market only. Applies to bets placed from 10am on March 11th Free bet stake not returned. Free bet will be available to use on any horse racing market for 7 days from when it is credited. Max refund EUR/GBP 50 per customer per race. Does not apply to Tote bets. Paddy Power racing rules apply. Paddy Power reserves the right in its discretion to exclude and/or limit the availability of the offer to certain customers.

sdoc13

sdoc13 wrote: »

Ok The big question for me tomorrow is the JLT.

Surely Apache Strongholds form took a serious boost today with Don Poli winning well and by that token Valseur Lidos form too.

Vatours form not as strong for me, but the vibes are excellent and his performance at last years festival was superb.

At the prices I theink Apache is the play. Think the TTT could run well as well.

Have Um Temps Pout Tout AP at 20s and Edyemi @ 12s.

Champion Court my NAP of the meeting and have backed ew at 25s saver on Radhani Express

Grand Vision in the last.

In the Ryan Air have Don Cossack in a double with Don Poli at 12s. If I get 12s or more tomorrow might be tempted to back TDS.

have gone with
Apache Stronghold 3 pts
Edyemi 12s AP 1 pt ew
Eduard 20/1 2 pt win
Um Temp Pour Tout AP 20/1 2 pt win
Champion Court 3 pt ew and Radhani Express 2 pt win
Grand Vision 2 pt win.

All in an 10c Lucky 63 for the milion payout:D

Have to say the more I look at Eduard the more I like its chances. Run behind many clouds very decent form. Think he is the most overpriced in the race.

Andalucia

a tough day for punting

I like the look of Run Ructions Run in the Pertemps, good ground and Carberry are just what the doctor ordered

Ryanair is very open

fancy Un Temps pour Tout in the world hurdle

Plasandrunt

Vaseur Lido, Balder Succes and Jetson for me tomorrow.

That said I couldn't pick my nose this week

mailburner

think buywise has a great chance in the 4.0 (9/1)
ran an amazing race over fences to finish fifth here over the same distance despite an awful round of jumping
glad to see this one over hurdles


already on call the cops ante post at 20/1 in that lottery of a race (pertemps)


vautour is class, sticking with that

backed ma filleule+johns spirit both ew

can figure out the world hurdle at all

mailburner

mate was telling me jane mangan was on radio one (longwave) and was very bullish about dodging bullets and said moon racer would win
said vigil had no chance, more or less said it like it was unlike most jocks

I'll be listening out for that tomorrow

DyldeBrill

might stick and e/w bet on Dawalan. think he could upset in the pertemps.

Suarez20

Fancy at fishers cross with the headgear on tomorrow, hoping the good ground will bring out some improvement!

Quick question I backed champagne fever for qm in a double with taquin de seuil, the result is still saying pending with void for champagne fever, does any one know if this is a losing bet or what happens? Im nearly sure I did it before nrnb so I expect it to be a loser

Zarkandar

Suarez20 wrote: »

Fancy at fishers cross with the headgear on tomorrow, hoping the good ground will bring out some improvement!

Quick question I backed champagne fever for qm in a double with taquin de seuil, the result is still saying pending with void for champagne fever, does any one know if this is a losing bet or what happens? Im nearly sure I did it before nrnb so I expect it to be a loser

NRNB was available for the championship races with many bookies for months before the other races went NRNB, so bet might still be on.

I know who I'm on for the World Hurdle

Suarez20

Zarkandar wrote: »

NRNB was available for the championship races with many bookies for months before the other races went NRNB, so bet might still be on.

I know who I'm on for the World Hurdle

Is this just a single now then?
Ha best of luck he will be there at the bottom of the hill that's for sure.
Surely this pipe runner in the 4 o'clock must go well too

rossom

1.30 Cheltenham

Vautour 2/1

Paddy Power are offering money back as a free bet if 2nd or 3rd in this contest which is an absolutely terrific offer but, nevertheless, I very strongly fancy Vautour to land this contest. Willie Mullins' French recruit was unbeaten in his novice hurdling campaign last year when he landed 3 Grade 1s with the highlight undoubtedly being a scintillating performance in the Supreme Novice Hurdle where he smashed the track record and he started this campaign as a high class Novice Chasing prospect. Having won very easily and impressively on his chasing debut at Navan over 17f back in November, Vautour was turned over in a shock defeat when stepped up to Grade 1 company at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival when beaten miles by Clarcam (who he easily dispatched with on his chasing debut) and you have to put a line through that run as he just wasn't right in the slightest. He put that run behind him when easily winning a pretty weak 3 runner Grade 2 contest at Leopardstown back in January when stepped up to 19f and I think he'll have no issue with an extra furlong here at Cheltenham. Looking at the opposition, I cannot believe Ptit Zig is as short as 3/1 in a place. The best price of 9/2 on offer is also a joke in my eyes. He fell last time out, wasn't very impressive in my eyes against Champagne West and I just couldn't have him. The legitimate danger in my eyes comes in the shape of Apache Stronghold who beat Valseur Lido LTO and who ran a good 2nd to Don Poli before that and I think he's the horse to follow Vautour home. Taking aside Vautour's 2nd when clearly not right at Leopardstown, Vautour has won all his other 7 races since trained by Willie Mullins and with a track record breaking performance in the Supreme to his name I think he'll be extremely hard to beat.

2.05 Cheltenham

Call The Cops 10/1 & Edeymi 8/1

This looks an incredibly open renewal and I could make a case for about 7 or 8 of these and I'm playing two against the field in the shape of Call The Cops and Edeymi. Starting first with Call The Cops, I don't think there's any doubt that he's well handicapped under a 5lb penalty for his really impressive success at Doncaster when upped to 3 miles for the first time but the worry is with that effort coming just 12 days ago there's an obvious chance that the run took more out of him that it looked and he won't be 100% today. A useful enough novice hurdler, this unexposed 6 year old ran a very eye catching 4th behind Brother Brian (well fancied in this) at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance as he stayed on strongly from an impossible position over 2m5f and his latest run was seriously impressive to my eye when upped to 3m on his latest start as he ran out a very convincing eased down 5L winner off a mark of 133. He travelled powerfully through the race and came clear on the bit before being briefly driven to success and it was a very impressive performance that suggested he had a real future as a staying hurdler. I've actually no problem that Andrew Tinkler has kept the ride as opposed to Barry Geraghty as I thought he got on really well with the horse the last day and I think a well run race will suit this strong travelling 6 year old. With only 8 career starts to date, there ought to be a lot more to come from Call The Cops and if in the same form as he was 12 days ago I think he'll prove a difficult horse to beat. The other horse I've backed in this race Edeymi screams of a Tony Martin plot and he's somehow sneaked in as bottom weight in this contest. I could go into great depth about a lot his previous runs but all you need to do is look at his last run at Musselburgh when he was a tenderly handled 4th off this mark under an inexperienced 7lb claimer to see that he's had this race as a target for a good while and I'd be surprised if he didn't run a big race.

2.40 Cheltenham

Don Cossack 4/1

This actually looks like a race with a good bit of depth to it and there's a good 6 or 7 live contenders in this contest but I think Gordon Elliott's 8 year old is the one to be on. Don Cossack has always been a good horse and won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown in late 2013 but I think he's finally finished maturing into his big frame this season as he has been imperious in winning all 4 starts this season. An effortless win on his reappearance in a Grade 3 was followed by another comfortable success in a 3 runner Grade 2 at Down Royal and he bagged his 2nd career Grade 1 beating two very good horses in Boston Bob & Gold Cup holder Lord Windermere over 2m4f at Punchestown in December and for all both would be better over further and Lord Windermere would have needed the run he couldn't have been much more impressive in winning. Don Cossack's final start again resulted in success this time in a Grade 2 at Thurles in soft/heavy ground and for all his task was made simplistic with Champagne Fever falling at the last I think he was going to master that rival and I was particularly impressed how he got himself back into the race having made a mistake 2 out. At the very least, Don Cossack would have pushed a horse who was a 5/1 shot for the QMCC before his withdrawal very close on ground much softer than ideal but I firmly believe he was going to surge past that rival up the home stretch. It finally seems this big bodied horse has completely filled out and he's now finishing off his races much better and I think he'll be an incredibly hard horse to beat today. Ma Filleule, Balder Succes, Foxrock, Hidden Cyclone and Taquin De Seuil all look to be legitimate threats in this contest which should be a very good viewing spectacle but I'm confident The Don can see them all off and record his 5th win on the spin.

3.20 Cheltenham

I can't get over had bad this race is and I'm leaving it well alone. At a push I'd go for Blue Fashion 18/1 & Abbyssial 16/1 and the fact I'm putting up 2 horses that haven't even raced over 2m4f says it all. Good luck to whatever you back in this.

4.00 Cheltenham

Monetaire 7/1

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Monetaire is a well handicapped horse off a mark of 138 and has had this race as his target since he arrived at David Pipe's from France and, given that the trainer won the contest in 2014 and 2012 with ex French horses with similar profiles for this owner, I think he'll take a lot of beating. Monetaire made his British debut off a mark of 123 at Cheltenham over 2 miles where I thought he did an amazing job to finish 3rd. He made an absolutely horrendous error at the first when unsighted and he nearly fell as he dropped back to last but I was just so impressed with the ease he travelled through the field despite making a few more mistakes along the way and, much like The Druids Nephew in the Hennessey, he struck me as a really classy horse. Having travelled oh so smoothly into the race, Monetaire looked like the likeliest winner turning into the home straight but his early shuddering blunder saw him tire late on as he was beaten less than 5L into 3rd. His ability to recover from that mistake over the minimum trip and get into contention screamed that he was a very well handicapped horse and I immediately thought he'd be aimed at this contest. Upped 3lb to a mark of 126, Monetaire scored 2 weeks later at Newbury over 2m1f in impressive fashion and he struck me as a horse that had a lot more left to give in the handicapping sphere. Given a good sighter at all his fences by Tom Scudamore, his jumping was excellent throughout bar getting in close once and he again travelled through the contest powerfully. He took up the lead at 2 out and despite having to be driven out up the run in to maintain his advantage he ran out a very impressive scorer.

The form of that race looks very strong with the runner up Solar Impulse (running off 145 that day) subsequently finishing 2nd to Josses Hill who was 3rd in Tuesday's Arkle and being headed at the post in a Grade 2 novice at Doncaster and it was fine performance by Monetaire on just his 2nd start in Britain. The handicapper initially raised him 10lb to a mark of 136 for that effort but luckily he's given him an extra 2lb on the back of Solar Impulse's subsequent exploits as he wouldn't have gotten into this race otherwise but even with a 12lb hike there's no doubt in my mind he's a well handicapped animal. The Pipe's put him away for this contest back in November and have clearly been readying him for it ever since. Although both his starts have been over 2m/2m1f in Britain, I definitely think he'll relish the step up in trip to 2m5f today as he was 2nd in the French Grand National (run over just shy of 3m) and I'm confident it will see him improve significantly. It's quite interesting that the tongue tie which was used on his British debut but was absent on his 2nd start is back on for this contest and it is possible that he may have won despite a suffering with his breathing in the closing stages (complete speculation) which would further enhance his chances if true. Given that Pipe has won this contest in 2 of the last 3 years with ex French horses towards the bottom of the handicap for owner Allan Stennett, he clearly knows exactly how to ready his horses for a race of this nature and I've no doubt Monetaire will be ready for the task and I think he'll take a truck load of beating. I can't not have a bet on Champion Court 33/1 given that he's either a plot of just a regressive 10 year old given that he's a massive 16lb lower than when 7th in this race last year and if he is a plot he's sure to run a huge race off a mark of 141 and at 33/1 I'm willing to take a chance that he is.

4.40 Cheltenham

Champagne James 10/1

I'm keeping this short and sweet but it looks like Ted Walsh has done a fine job getting Champagne James into this handicap off a mark of 134 having campaigned him over 2m4f or shorter throughout his career but he's shaped as if he'd appreciate a step up in trip for a long time and I think getting that here today now upped to 3m2f will bring out a lot of improvement in him. I'd be fairly certain that Ted Walsh has had his eye on this race for quite a while with regards to Champagne James as he'd dearly love to give his daughter Katie another Cheltenham winner and with a good weight of 11-1 on his back I think Champagne James is primed to run a big race.

My Thursday bets

Already have Ma Filleule and Edeyemi in antepost bets.

Following Rossom blindly here with
Vautour
Monetaire
Champagne James

Trixie


I've always been a follower of At Fishers Cross (nothing to do with how lovely his trainer looks!!!) So I'm not letting him go off today at such a big price without backing him. I still have belief that the talent is in there somewhere waiting to re-emerge

Copper_pipe

Have 6 horses picked out, fancy doing multiples today. Budget is 10 quid. Whats the best way to go?

BrookieD

had a each way bet on
Ma Filleule - 5/1 14:40
Saphir Du Rheu - 6/1 15:20
Ptit Zig - 9/2 13:30

fingers crossed for a potential 2.5k return

dodzy

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Have 6 horses picked out, fancy doing multiples today. Budget is 10 quid. Whats the best way to go?

Add 1.40 (€11.40 total stage) and put the 6 horses in a 20cent Heinz. 57 bets. It'd be some craic if they all come up:)

Copper_pipe

dodzy wrote: »

Add 1.40 (€11.40 total stage) and put the 6 horses in a 20cent Heinz. 57 bets. It'd be some craic if they all come up:)

If it does ill stand to you

Gee Male

My own record so far: early success on Tuesday (like most of the planet) led to a later collapse on Tuesday. Had very little luck yesterday, everything I backed seemed too keen for me, until Moon Racer came in at the end. I had got MR at 9/1 on Tuesday evening and had used even staes throughout the day, so got my money back and picked up a refund on a free bet somewhere along the line – don’t even know where truth be told.

My selections for today, again using even 1pt stakes:

1:30 Vautour
2:05 Regal Encore
2:40 Foxrock
3:20 Jetson
4:00 Champion Court e/w
4:40 Standing Ovation e/w

Little 10c Luck 63 on the above too, just for the laugh. I reckon my luck has to change some time.

Also have a little 2pts each way on Abbyssial in the 3:20 too, just out of curiosity that arose after a few pints last night. That’s the danger of smartphones if you ask me!

HarshOstrich

Here's a warning for yas
Ruby on channel 4 every morning trotting out a horse each day with the whole Mullins team, the horse he sits on every day have yet to win, Annie power, nicols canyon and today is vautour.

supersean1999

The top 3. 7/1 in the world hurdle on ladbrokes

Plasandrunt

€10 e/w on Balder Succes @ 8/1
€10 on Vaseur Lido @ 9/2
€5 e/w on Jetson @12/1
€20 on Vaseur Lido and Don Cossack to place
€5 e/w on Spirit on Shankly (Pertemps)

robo

Here are my picks for today -

1:30 EW Valseur Lido - 5/1
2:05 EW Dawalan - 14/1
2:40 Win (NAP) Don Cossack - 4/1
3:20 EW Jetson - 16/1
4:00 EW Dare Me - 40/1
4:40 EW Clondaw Knight - 20/1

I had 2 winners and 2 places yesterday so hoping to get some more today, but I have done my first win only bet today on Don Cossack, I really think that Elliot will have this horse ready & waiting for this race...oh and its sponsored by Ryanair so wouldn't that just make MOL smile from ear to ear!

KilOit

Hey ive got a few genuinely from the horses mouth.

In the 1.30 there shouldnt be anything to stop vautour on that ground Ruby very confident to tell everyone to back VAUTOUR so i would go with that.
Each way Apache stronghold as a saver from a typical Paul Carberry ride.

2.05 is looking wide open but the more you look at the weights its hard to get away from the low weight Bryan Cooper is on EDEYMI.

2.40 The Ryanair has never gone to an Irish horse and i believe that trend will continue. The Mare MA FILLEULE has an allowance so this along with the good ground and off the back of a good run at Aintree should see her follow through with a first festival win for Nicky Henderson. Foxrock will run a good race.

3.20 the not so big one of the day a poor open World Hurdle should fall into the hands of a genius ride by Paul Carberry on MONKSLAND a great each way bet but feeling confident he should go close for the win. Ground that suits and after two good runs on ground he disliked i can see him fly up that hill to get the better of Zarkandar.

4.00 I feel this could finally be the year for Malcolm Jefferson to get ATTAGLANCE to finally get into the Festival winners enclosure.

4.40 Finally my NAP of the day is GOLD BULLETT in the last. A local horse to myself and through local word of mouth and then the great book of Derek O Connors services at a good price about 8 or 9/1 this very decent novice hurdler and progressive chaser has to potential to be a National horse. Get on!

irish_major

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Here's a warning for yas
Ruby on channel 4 every morning trotting out a horse each day with the whole Mullins team, the horse he sits on every day have yet to win, Annie power, nicols canyon and today is vautour.

In fairness to him, Annie was very very unlucky and nic canyon would have gone much much closer if he settled.
And I hope you're wrong cause I need Vautour for an accum

Fitz*

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Here's a warning for yas
Ruby on channel 4 every morning trotting out a horse each day with the whole Mullins team, the horse he sits on every day have yet to win, Annie power, nicols canyon and today is vautour.

Yep, as the poster above said Annie Power was unlucky. Windsor Park was always going to beat Nic Canyon

Let's hope it's third time lucky & Vautour strides home in 1st

mailburner

wonder how many had the first 4 with poli and vautour
was working out at nearly 190 for a little over a euro for me
there'd have been bookies closing down everywhere

snowgal

I got a €100 free bet from Paddys this morning! any ideas? Im not the best horse racing person! I dont know if it has to be a single bet or not, cant see the terms anywhere.

tipptom

mailburner wrote: »

think buywise has a great chance in the 4.0 (9/1)
ran an amazing race over fences to finish fifth here over the same distance despite an awful round of jumping
glad to see this one over hurdles


already on call the cops ante post at 20/1 in that lottery of a race (pertemps)


vautour is class, sticking with that

backed ma filleule+johns spirit both ew

can figure out the world hurdle at all

With you on Buywise,c/d winner and given a nice little prep race over hurdles to set him up nicly for this one,won on good and soft, and no better man than Williams to have him ready.
Vatour
dawalan
Don Cossack
Buywise