Biotech talk/news/rumours and ideas

RobertKK

ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals down 24% it had rallied two days ago when it pulled out of a second conference, this led to rumours it was being bought out.
Shares soared by near 20% to $45. Yesterday a small fall, then after close of trading we found out why they pulled out of a 2nd conference. The CEO was resigning and a drug has been delayed, today shares down 24%...

Cellectis ALCLS/CLLS meanwhile are scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on St Patrick's day, they might wait a day or two but that is the expected day.
Positive thing is Pfizer are buying more shares in the company to keep their stake at 10%.
The news is demand is said to be high for the IPO.

Genfit's crucial data could be released as early as Monday, no specific date given, just the 2nd half of March. Will be glad when the data is out.

We are due a biotech sell off soon, 11 months of increase, with just a blip mid month in October, but that month still ended up higher.
The PCYC buyout by ABBV really put more fuel into the area.
Last year the sell off started around this time and peaked in the first half of April. Sell off coming but when is the question...

RobertKK

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13078249/1/biotech-stock-mailbag-neuralstem-genfit-intercept-amarin.html

Adam Feuerstein gives his opinion on a few stocks including Genfit.

RMandel34 writes, "Thank you for the article about Genfit (GNFTF) and the explanation of their NASH [fatty liver] study, but I hope you can help me with a question. You say people expect the Genfit study to be successful but if that is true, why would Intercept Pharma (ICPT) be acting so strong? Shouldn't Intercept stock fall? If you could clarify this it would be great."

It's a great question. The chart below tracks six-month performance of Genfit (as it trades on the Paris stock exchange) and Intercept. Both stocks are on uptrend heading into the Genfit's pending announcement of the GFT-505 phase II data in NASH. In March, Intercept, and not Genfit, has been the stronger stock, which seems counterintuitive if investor consensus believes the GFT-505 study will be positive.

see link for chart

I asked RBC Capital analyst Michael Yee for help answering this question. "Yeezus," as we like to call him, has a good ear for what professional biotech investors are thinking.
"Genfit's stock is still near relative highs so people expect [GFT-505] to work," Yee said. "But ever since Intercept received Breakthrough Therapy Designation [for OCA], people realize that it's a drug. People didn't necessarily think so before Breakthrough."
The FDA awarded Breakthrough Therapy status to Intercept's OCA for NASH at the end of January. Intercept's stock price has been moving higher ever since as investors have become more confident in the company's negotiations with FDA about how to design a phase III study of OCA in NASH.



Estimates vary (and are controversial), but there could be 12 million people in the U.S. and Europe with a diagnosis of NASH plus advanced liver fibrosis. That's a treatable patient population larger than hepatitis C. With a market so potentially large, multiple drugs could easily find a role, so Genfit's upcoming GFT-505 study results are not winner-take-all stakes.
When the GFT-505 study results are announced, Yee says to look most closely at the drug's effect on liver fibrosis because this could be where Intercept's OCA could have advantages.

I think it will be next week sometime before 8am on any given day, that we finally find out how good or bad this is.

Reverse fibrosis and it would be huge.

Prezatch

GLMD (Genfit competitor) surged yesterday, up 16%

RobertKK

JoeyD wrote: »

GLMD (Genfit competitor) surged yesterday, up 16%

If Genfit has good data and Bank of America expects it to meet expectations, then Genfit is currently undervalued compared to ICPT, but GLMD is is arguably very undervalued at the moment if their drug works as expected.
I have seen it argued Galmed is the better play but Genfit with good data would be excellent too.
Genfit is down at the moment but nothing unusual before major data is released. But I see the same with other French bios down too.
Beginning to think it will be next week for the data.

Galmed having another good day too.

RobertKK

Sold my BLUE shares for a small profit yesterday, wanted the money for Medigene (MDG1)
Bought this morning at €6.83, these shares have been on fire in recent weeks, did consider when in the €4s but didn't have the courage of conviction.
I think this data is amazing and if the same is shown in further clinical trials then this stock is way undervalaued.
http://www.abstractsonline.com/Plan/ViewAbstract.aspx?mID=3682&sKey=eae2d342-dd5a-41ba-9eb4-63990d3122b8&cKey=1ff23671-9f76-44fd-891b-50b8fbfdd1b6&mKey=19573a54-ae8f-4e00-9c23-bd6d62268424

Morgan Stanley bought 6.32% of the company in recent days.

Will buy back into BLUE. also want stake in ONCE, maybe KITE and AERI too.

Biotech is gone a bit crazy today.

I did consider buying ESPR last year at $23, then at $50, thought it was chasing at $85, currently it is $117, still not buying :pac:
But I think it could go a lot higher as it is a very real buyout candidate, which I think is what is driving the price.

It is an unreal day today...

zpehtsfd

Big news tomorrow for biotech with Biogen (BIIB) releasing Alzheimers data. Some crazy valuations in this sector now.

RobertKK

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Big news tomorrow for biotech with Biogen (BIIB) releasing Alzheimers data. Some crazy valuations in this sector now.

Yeah, really looking forward to seeing how this pans out.
I have no position but I really hope it is great news.

lucky john

Malin are floating next week. They have already raised €290million so obviously in demand. have you been hearing anything about the quality of investments they have lined up Robert.

RobertKK

lucky john wrote: »

Malin are floating next week. They have already raised €290million so obviously in demand. have you been hearing anything about the quality of investments they have lined up Robert.

First what we don't know. They will invest in three to five companies that are as yet unnamed,

The ones we know:

Kymab is a British company and it also has backing from Bill and Melinda gates.
From their website:

We are building a rich pipeline of assets in 3 therapeutic spaces: immuno-oncology, immunology and opportunistic. Our most advanced assets will enter development this year with proof of concept readouts in 2019.

http://www.kymab.com/pipeline.php They have strong backing and in an area that is going to revolutionise the world.

Xenex is another company, this one is interesting, using robots to clean hospitals and kill germs. It uses UV light to kill germs and results so far shows that the rate of infections are lower where this technology has been employed. 56% lower rates of infection.
http://www.xenex.com/xenex-history/
Can see robots being a key part of the hospital cleaning team.

Viamet were going to list on the Nasdaq last October, it was at the time of a mini correction before normal exuberance in biotech resumed...
The people behind Malin came in and gave them the money they were going to raise from the IPO.
http://www.viamet.com/products
In the fungal area, I don't know an awful lot about them.

It looks good in my opinion, it will be very popular.

Prezatch

ICPT have released clinical results - they need statines to counteract LDL increase. Seems like good news for Genfit

http://ir.interceptpharma.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=902623

RobertKK

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Big news tomorrow for biotech with Biogen (BIIB) releasing Alzheimers data. Some crazy valuations in this sector now.

Really like the results for this.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13085556/1/biogens-alzheimers-drug-exceeds-or-meets-expectations-depending-on-your-view.html?
Just a certain gene causing problems with the drug in some patients, it looks the best drug yet for alzheimers.

JoeyD wrote: »

ICPT have released clinical results - they need statines to counteract LDL increase. Seems like good news for Genfit

http://ir.interceptpharma.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=902623

Market likes the results, ICPT has a clear run now for their drug. The statins offered the solution that ICPT needed.
Be great if Genfit could have positive fibrosis data, only problem is the clinical trial ICPT used was over 72 weeks, while Genfits was over 52 weeks, some people who deal with liver disease think those 20 weeks could be vital to the data.
Meanwhile the wait goes on...

Should be another green day in bio land as the talk goes on whether this is sustainable or a bubble...

Andrea B.

I'm

Medigene (MDG1)
Bought this morning at €6.83, these shares have been on fire in recent weeks, did consider when in the €4s but didn't have the courage of conviction.
I think this data is amazing and if the same is shown in further clinical trials then this stock is way undervalaued.

Cheers. Nice 11% EOD. Peaked to 20%, but based on their abstract I will hold.
Along with my AAVL and STML this week, a beer is deserved.

Andrea B.

Medigene (MDG1)
Bought this morning at €6.83, these shares have been on fire in recent weeks, did consider when in the €4s but didn't have the courage of conviction.
I think this data is amazing and if the same is shown in further clinical trials then this stock is way undervalaued.

Cheers. Nice 11% EOD. Peaked to 20%, but based on their abstract I will hold.

RobertKK

Andrea B. wrote: »

I'm
Cheers. Nice 11% EOD. Peaked to 20%, but based on their abstract I will hold.
Along with my AAVL and STML this week, a beer is deserved.

Great to hear you caught some of it.

Medigene had a crazy day alright, got a little concerned when it opened 10% down, but it was up 18% yesterday, so it went from that to as you explained, crazy, then profit taking towards close.
I have seen two different technical analysis for the stock - all are positive, one has it going back down a bit before soaring to well over €20 and close to €30.
The other just has it soaring to those levels.
I don't know, hope it is does happen, but at a market cap of €122 million, even if it goes to a market cap of €300 million, that's over €20.

Here is a video and in the second link an interview with a doctor in Oslo. Both are from the Australian broadcaster ABC.
The video is of an Australian who had a tumor the size of an orange in his brain three years ago with months to live. The interview is from the doctor who treated him using Medigene's dendritic cell vaccine.
He should be dead, so this is a great story.

http://www.abc.net.au/austory/specials/thebackofhismind/default.htm

http://www.abc.net.au/austory/content/2012/s3941581.htm

RobertKK

RobertKK wrote: »

Bought a small amount of Cellectis earlier today at €31 a share for a long term hold.
They will be doing an IPO on the Nasdaq later this month, share price is up huge this year and for the past 12 months, but gene therapy stocks are hot.
Pfizer bought a 10% stake in the company last year, and did a deal for the development of 15 of their gene therapy (CAR-T) drugs, Cellectis received an €80 million milestone payment and will receive $185 million for each successful therapy they produce plus royalties, potential $2.8 billion plus royalties, just potential at this stage.

Cellectis (ALCLS) said will IPO on Thusday on the Nasdaq with 3.5 million shares as an ADR at $36.83 a share, based on a €35 share price.

http://www.wkrb13.com/markets/531959/cellectis-s-a-prices-ipo-at-36-83-per-share-clls/

Pfizer buying more to keep their stake at 10%

RobertKK

Andrea B. wrote: »

Cheers. Nice 11% EOD. Peaked to 20%, but based on their abstract I will hold.

They were a good buy so far...
https://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AMDG1&ei=JNIPVbm6HsX_wAO444HwDw

edit, we are in double figures. one at this stage wish they had bought more initially...

mickman

Bio is in a bubble - its like tech in 1999

Who knows how far it will go though - still plenty time to enjoy the ride up

RobertKK

Medigene up 39% today on the Xetra index, and closed up 45% in Frankfurt. They announced today they were starting a phase I/II study with their dendritic cell vaccine to treat Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (AML).
Since I bought last Thursday, shares are up 118%.

I wonder if Genfit will announce NASH results tomorrow, I hope they do...

Thargor

Good going Robert, don't suppose you've ever come across Scancell Holdings SCLP in your research or have an opinion do you? They're more pharmaceutical but Im thinking about it, cancer vaccine pipe dream but the trials keep coming back good, they've pulled back recently and Im tempted to take a small punt.

Andrea B.

+1 to Robert. Up 80% for me.
Sorry did not buy more yesterday, but put off as I needed to transfer from a weak $. Pity, as today's climb would've absorbed any loss there. Could not be happier though😊.

Value Hunter

Anyone following MEI Pharma (MEIP)?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3024216-mei-pharma-upcoming-catalysts-will-drive-stock-rebound

Dubh Geannain

Malin has just landed one of Ireland's biggest ever life science IPOs, raising up to €330m ahead of a listing on the Irish stock market's junior exchange.

The Dublin-based company will act as a startup incubator to develop life science companies.

The €330m IPO is one of Europe's biggest ever after the firm exceeded its initial €275m-€325m target range.

...

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/malin-raises-330m-in-one-of-europes-largest-biotech-ipos-31083345.html

lucky john

Malin MLC

http://www.ise.ie/Market-Data-Announcements/Companies/Equity-Details/?equity=117393&start_day=25&start_month=3&start_year=2015.

RobertKK

Looks like biotech correction is underway, and my internet was down and was too poor when it did work to do anything with it, it was like slow dial up, when it is normally around 10mb/s.
Seems back to normal now when it is a bit late...

Thargor wrote: »

Good going Robert, don't suppose you've ever come across Scancell Holdings SCLP in your research or have an opinion do you? They're more pharmaceutical but Im thinking about it, cancer vaccine pipe dream but the trials keep coming back good, they've pulled back recently and Im tempted to take a small punt.

Haven't heard about them but looking them up, quite similar to medigene in one sense in that they too are using dendritic cell therapy for cancer. They however are using a different technique.
Immunotherapy and gene therapy are areas where a lot of hope is being put to defeat cancer once and for all.
Yeah they have pulled back and hit a 52 week low at 23.80 then bounced, given their valuation, a small punt should be ok, same as I did with Medigene.

Andrea B. wrote: »

+1 to Robert. Up 80% for me.
Sorry did not buy more yesterday, but put off as I needed to transfer from a weak $. Pity, as today's climb would've absorbed any loss there. Could not be happier though😊.

One word: Volatile :pac:

Bit extreme today even for me....from being up double digits to down double digits, playing on swings and roundabouts, should have sold this morning.
Greed is a terrible thing, and I let greed make me not sell yesterday.
Will likely sell tomorrow. Still have a nice profit but nowhere near as nice as yesterday.
Internet was so bad today, Three must have been doing work on it.

Value Hunter wrote: »

Anyone following MEI Pharma (MEIP)?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3024216-mei-pharma-upcoming-catalysts-will-drive-stock-rebound

Yes, I don't have a clue how the results will be, the bad results two days ago would have me wary, but maybe the next set of results coming up will be good for a different type of cancer. I don't know.


Cellectis got greedy with their IPO at the worst time possible, they weren't to know they would IPO in the US on the day the correction in bio really got going.
They increased their share offering by 50% and increased the price to over $41. So now down 6%, they got too greedy at the wrong time.
Considering selling my stake in them.

Waiting for Genfit to announce their results still...wish they would just do it. Will likely be selling off all or most (80%) of my shares when they do.

The biotech sell off could last for a few weeks. Cash in one's account might be best right now unless playing a catalyst.

Andrea B.

Bit extreme today even for me....from being up double digits to down double digits, playing on swings and roundabouts, should have sold this morning.
Greed is a terrible thing, and I let greed make me not sell yesterday.
Will likely sell tomorrow. Still have a nice profit but nowhere near as nice as yesterday.
Internet was so bad today, Three must have been doing work on it.

Agreed on greed. Raised my stop loss this morn as it was doing a crazy climb for first hour. Came out with tidy profit.

AAVL has me worried. Large stake. Have a stop at 38 which will leave me break even.
Getting better at that golden rule of never lowering your stop.

Aside, if you do not mind, would you share original source of Medigen news?

RobertKK

Andrea B. wrote: »

Agreed on greed. Raised my stop loss this morn as it was doing a crazy climb for first hour. Came out with tidy profit.

AAVL has me worried. Large stake. Have a stop at 38 which will leave me break even.
Getting better at that golden rule of never lowering your stop.

Aside, if you do not mind, would you share original source of Medigen news?

Good to hear you got to sell today.

AAVL, two options:
Sell take a profit and buy back at lower price.
Don't sell as the price doesn't matter compared to the possibility during the summer when they release data, which if good and earlier trials were good, stock should go triple digit and Regeneron who own 8% of the company could go for a full takeover as it would be a huge threat to their Eylea drug.

I do troll twitter looking for news, also stocktwits. But it was on twitter I came across Medigene, someone was asking Brad Loncar about the stock. So I looked it up, and that eventually led to me buying.
His twitter, it was someone saying it to him, but he didn't reply about it.
https://twitter.com/bradloncar
I also saw it mentioned on twitter when searching Genft, GNFT, ALCLS and Cellectis.
So I suppose it was on twitter.

Andrea B.

The biotech sell off could last for a few weeks.

Most sectors are down today though? Only catalyst I can personally guess is a Q1 reaping of profits consolidation. Optimistic for now with only concern being a higher than normal incidence of insider sales.

RobertKK

Andrea B. wrote: »

Most sectors are down today though? Only catalyst I can personally guess is a Q1 reaping of profits consolidation. Optimistic for now with only concern being a higher than normal incidence of insider sales.

True that is one reason.

Biotech sell off last year started second half of March and it was around 10th/11th April that it hit the low point.
Then the main US biotech ETF (IBB) was up for 11 months in a row.

Prezatch

RobertKK wrote: »

Waiting for Genfit to announce their results still...wish they would just do it. Will likely be selling off all or most (80%) of my shares when they do.

The biotech sell off could last for a few weeks. Cash in one's account might be best right now unless playing a catalyst.

Big sell off on GNFT already this morning down 8%. I don't see anything on twitter yet

RobertKK

JoeyD wrote: »

Big sell off on GNFT already this morning down 8%. I don't see anything on twitter yet

Just part of the general sell off. I wouldn't worry.
Have seen stocks sell off before data is released and shares rocketing and vice versa.
Action today means nothing.
Some people think it will be tomorrow they will release the results and let them be digested over the weekend.