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Biotech talk/news/rumours and ideas

  • 03-03-2015 11:32am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭


    A thread to discuss what it says in the title: talk, news, rumours and ideas for investment.
    This is so discussion won't ruin other threads like the 'Shares 2015' thread by what may look like hijacking by me (and I don't want that), which would be totally unfair on others who put across their ideas, and who are getting excellent returns, long may that continue.


    Warning: Biotech is a high risk area for investment.
    One can get high returns, but equally if a biotech company gets bad clinical data, depending on the size of the company and its pipeline, the losses can be very high.
    The warning is very important in my opinion


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Good idea Robert. Came across this tweet yesterday re. Genfit:

    https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein/status/572497246710861826

    Some great info on Twitter.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    zpehtsfd wrote: »
    Good idea Robert. Came across this tweet yesterday re. Genfit:

    https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein/status/572497246710861826

    Some great info on Twitter.

    Yes, some over thinking there :pac: but in regards to ICPT, they had their earnings report yesterday and they mentioned Genfit twice in their conference call, one could take from that, that ICPT seemingly expects good results for Genfit, they said the market was big enough for everyone.
    One reference was to the definition of NASH not being defined and how it has been different for both themselves and Genfit.
    The other was Genfit was mentioned in terms of the large population of people who suffer from NASH and how the market is big enough for everyone. 15% of the US and 10% of the European population are said to have NASH.

    March 20th is the expected date for phase 2 b results to be announced. I'll be nervous, excited and wishing it was over in the meantime. The countdown is on...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    OREX up around 30% today after being granted a US patent for Contrave. There will likely be more good news for OREX this month when Contrave (Mysimba in EU) is approved by the EU Commission, already approved by the EU Regulators, approval may already be priced in of course.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    OREX up around 30% today after being granted a US patent for Contrave. There will likely be more good news for OREX this month when Contrave (Mysimba in EU) is approved by the EU Commission, already approved by the EU Regulators, approval may already be priced in of course.

    Now +53%.

    Great turn around in this stock since it initially didn't get approval last year, and went down. That when I owned it, not when it soars...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    OREX up around 30% today after being granted a US patent for Contrave. There will likely be more good news for OREX this month when Contrave (Mysimba in EU) is approved by the EU Commission, already approved by the EU Regulators, approval may already be priced in of course.

    It's not just about the patent it's about the heart-safety benefit seen in the CVOT trial. The is very big news if results can be replicated.

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/13065624/1/orexigen-weight-loss-pill-shows-surprise-heart-safety-benefit.html


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Looks like OREX could be in big trouble with the FDA, OREX had an agreement with the FDA not to release the interim results because it jeopardises the conclusion of the study.
    The problem is some of the patients might opt out of the trial given there is a 50% chance they are on the placebo, and not Contrave.
    If the trial cannot be completed, it is bad news, one report puts a new completion date for a new trial after delays to be completed by 2022...

    Amateurs...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    Oops!!

    That doesn't sound good, if it's to be 2022 this will surely tank tomorrow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    Oops!!

    That doesn't sound good, if it's to be 2022 this will surely tank tomorrow

    Some of the analysts have been bullish given the cardiac data, sort of what is known can't be made unknown.
    OREX said they did it as they needed to patent given what they knew.
    FDA said the executives of the company were not suppose to know this data, people underneath then yes, but it was suppose to be the least amount of people as possible in the company as they worked through the trial.
    Share price did fall a lot off its highs but it will probably rally some again today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    See the sudden spike in Genfit today after a pretty boring few hours?
    New rumour they are looking to sell the company.
    Maybe they see it as best for shareholders including themselves if the news is good for GTF505, rather than raising cash or getting a partner.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    More on the Genfit sale rumours: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/drugmaker-genfit-said-to-weigh-sale-amid-health-care-deal-boom

    They are deciding on whether to sell, it depends on the trial results.
    Current valuation is 3 times less than ICPT for the same area.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    I love love love Biotech. There have been previous times where Biotech shares boomed, and in all those previous booms the prices fizzled out, but this time I think is different (I know those are dangerous words). It seems to me that Biotech has an investing cycle of around 20 years - initial discovery of some fundamental medical science, followed by a wave of investment, followed by disappointment as the discovery turns out to be more difficult than thought to manipulate, followed by investment collapse. 20 years later, after a lot of patient work, the first actual products start emerging and the boom restarts.

    We've seen it with genetics, we're seeing it with stem-cells, we're seeing it with immunology. The stuff that is coming out of labs now is absolutely mind-blowing - in particular we are beginning to finally get a handle on the basics of life and we're no longer simply throwing darts blindfold - instead we're beginning to understand the basics and choosing which weapon is the most appropriate. I read today that DARPA scientists were able to enable a paraplegic woman to pilot a flight simulator - it's not strictly Biotech, but it does show that our understanding of something as fundamental as the brain has improved massively, and we're on the verge of some amazing changes.

    In saying all that, it is a complete mindfield for investment. I've long thought a Biotech fund or ETF was the way to go, and my investments have proved that right over the past few years. Unless you're a lunatic, you'd have Biotech in as only a small bit of an overall portfolio, because who's to say we won't see yet another collapse in the coming years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    hmmm wrote: »
    I love love love Biotech. There have been previous times where Biotech shares boomed, and in all those previous booms the prices fizzled out, but this time I think is different (I know those are dangerous words). It seems to me that Biotech has an investing cycle of around 20 years - initial discovery of some fundamental medical science, followed by a wave of investment, followed by disappointment as the discovery turns out to be more difficult than thought to manipulate, followed by investment collapse. 20 years later, after a lot of patient work, the first actual products start emerging and the boom restarts.

    We've seen it with genetics, we're seeing it with stem-cells, we're seeing it with immunology. The stuff that is coming out of labs now is absolutely mind-blowing - in particular we are beginning to finally get a handle on the basics of life and we're no longer simply throwing darts blindfold - instead we're beginning to understand the basics and choosing which weapon is the most appropriate. I read today that DARPA scientists were able to enable a paraplegic woman to pilot a flight simulator - it's not strictly Biotech, but it does show that our understanding of something as fundamental as the brain has improved massively, and we're on the verge of some amazing changes.

    In saying all that, it is a complete mindfield for investment. I've long thought a Biotech fund or ETF was the way to go, and my investments have proved that right over the past few years. Unless you're a lunatic, you'd have Biotech in as only a small bit of an overall portfolio, because who's to say we won't see yet another collapse in the coming years.


    I'm a lunatic :pac: but I don't invest and forget.

    I agree with what you say. What is happening in biotech at the moment is going to change the world, only problem it might be the more well off who will benefit most. Life expectancy should increase by a lot.
    I 100% believe all cancers will be 100% curable with gene therapy. I read today that there are over 1,000 cancer immunotherapies being worked on around the world.

    There is a hell of a lot of cures, treatments and vaccines coming down the line. The coming years and decades should be amazing.
    Life as we know it changing forever.

    I love biotech, so I invest in what I love, as it keeps me excited and wanting to learn more.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    A couple of months back it was recommended to me to buy PCYC, I didn't, it was $129 a share.
    ABBV bought them, the rumours for the last couple of days were JnJ were buying them. Only two weeks ago the CEO of PCYC said the company was not for sale at any price.
    Sale price $261.25 a share in a mixture of cash and stock.
    Edit to add, you could have bought PCYC for under $1 a share back in 2009.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭Prezatch


    Are there any decent EUR denominated Biotech ETFs that people know of?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    JoeyD wrote: »
    Are there any decent EUR denominated Biotech ETFs that people know of?

    Going by this I would say no, but I don't know. : http://europe.etf.com/europe/features-a-news/10329-source-launches-europes-first-biotech-etf.html?Itemid=126


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Phenomenal day in Biotech land.

    The ABBV buyout of PCYC for what some believe is overpriced, sent stocks soaring.

    GERN, one of the stocks I have in my shares 2015 list soared 34.5%, some of that due to the PCYC deal, but an analyst also came out and said they expect the stock to double in value this year.

    The gene therapy (CAR-T) stocks continued their run, highlight being BLUE up another 12%.

    Just loads of green, then you get a stock like CNAT, they will have NASH data later this month, big month in that area when you include GNFT and ICPT, but for CNAT their chief medical officer resigned, announced after the close. They were having a very good day till then,up 4.6%, after hours trading and down 14%.
    Seen claims of a clash of egos at the company rather than it being data related to a trial as being the reason, I don't know.

    Has to be a pull back soon, can't keep rising, but one will not refuse days like today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    Phenomenal day indeed, great move for GERN, and after hours OREX has tanked.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2015/03/05/top-fda-official-says-orexigen-data-unreliable-likely-false/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    Phenomenal day indeed, great move for GERN, and after hours OREX has tanked.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2015/03/05/top-fda-official-says-orexigen-data-unreliable-likely-false/


    This story just keeps giving and giving, idiots are running that company, surely they must have known the rules and regulations. If I was a shareholder, I would be raging right now, just can't believe how stupid the people who run that company have been.
    Message is nobody messes with the FDA.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Phenomenal day in Biotech land.

    The ABBV buyout of PCYC for what some believe is overpriced, sent stocks soaring.

    GERN, one of the stocks I have in my shares 2015 list soared 34.5%, some of that due to the PCYC deal, but an analyst also came out and said they expect the stock to double in value this year.

    The gene therapy (CAR-T) stocks continued their run, highlight being BLUE up another 12%.

    Just loads of green, then you get a stock like CNAT, they will have NASH data later this month, big month in that area when you include GNFT and ICPT, but for CNAT their chief medical officer resigned, announced after the close. They were having a very good day till then,up 4.6%, after hours trading and down 14%.
    Seen claims of a clash of egos at the company rather than it being data related to a trial as being the reason, I don't know.

    Has to be a pull back soon, can't keep rising, but one will not refuse days like today.

    Yes great day bar my CNAT. I sold in AH once the CMO resignation news came out.

    OREX trainwreck also. FDA putting them to the sword. Looking to buy high $5's today hopefully. GL


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,063 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Anybody got any TRIB Trinity Biotech? Irish HIV kit maker with a lot of acquisitions in other products. By far my best performer and a small dividend. Seem to be stuck at 18 now though after peaking at 25, cant decide whether or not to stick with them. there were a couple of years there where they just rose every single week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Thargor wrote: »
    Anybody got any TRIB Trinity Biotech? Irish HIV kit maker with a lot of acquisitions in other products. By far my best performer and a small dividend. Seem to be stuck at 18 now though after peaking at 25, cant decide whether or not to stick with them. there were a couple of years there where they just rose every single week.

    No, got none, don't know much about them, but up on a fairly red day is always nice.
    Maybe a positive signal. Up 5.5% for the week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    This is a good read for anyone else who bought GNFT shares as I am not the only one here.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2979576-genfit-pivotal-phase-iib-data-on-nash-offers-high-risk-reward-trade

    Describes the risk and what they expect, it says good results, double the stock price, bad results half it.
    But he goes for the stock to be somewhere between €70 to €80 before results.

    The author is quite bullish, personally I am nervous and excited because it could be great, it could be potentailly awful.

    There is an interesting Deutsche Bank price target on the company based on various outcomes in that article too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Bought a small amount of Cellectis earlier today at €31 a share for a long term hold.
    They will be doing an IPO on the Nasdaq later this month, share price is up huge this year and for the past 12 months, but gene therapy stocks are hot.
    Pfizer bought a 10% stake in the company last year, and did a deal for the development of 15 of their gene therapy (CAR-T) drugs, Cellectis received an €80 million milestone payment and will receive $185 million for each successful therapy they produce plus royalties, potential $2.8 billion plus royalties, just potential at this stage.

    Similarly I bought a very small amount of $BLUE shares last Friday, just a starter position. Hoping for a price fall later this month or next to buy some more when I will hopefully sell some other shares.
    They potentially have the cure for Sickle cell disease (SCD) and if they do, it will be huge, later this year. The company is putting out very bullish signals and has strong backers.
    It is expensive at the moment , but when you think its going to go down it just keeps rising given the company comes with high expectations. They have a lot to live upto.

    Both of them in my pension account and long term holds.
    Some think the gene therapy area is a bubble, I think it is the future so putting my money where I believe breakthroughs will happen.

    Others I want in on include ONCE who may have a cure for a certain type of blindness, some great video of a child who was treated and couldn't see and put on an obstacle course, and then the same child on the same obstacle course after treatment and living a normal life. I believe that gene therapy drug will pass later this year and it gives me hope for AAVL which I currently hold and who have a phase 2 clinical trial reporting in the summerand hopefully they too have cured another type of blindness via gene therapy.

    I believe we are living in a golden age and in a few decades time most diseases will be treatable and curable, just hope a cure or treatment for alzheimers and other brain diseases are among them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Just a technical update on Genfit.
    Couple of weeks ago went down to €52.50 from a high of €70, then reached €66 last week. Today hit €53.33 just after opening today and then rallied by going up €4.
    A double bottom so it should rise from here and eventually new highs before data.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,370 ✭✭✭eeepaulo


    Saw neil woodford discussing his new fund on hardtalk, (available on bbc player if you have access) patient capital he will be targetting biotech.

    Here is what the fool says about it.

    I guess need to wait for him to start up the fund, but, any thoughts on this being good exposure to biotech? (if he does the same as with his main fund he publishes all the holdings)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Genfit's Fatty Liver Drug Study Results Are Coming. Here's What You Need to Know.

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/13075236/1/genfits-fatty-liver-drug-study-results-are-coming-heres-what-you-need-to-know.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    eeepaulo wrote: »
    Saw neil woodford discussing his new fund on hardtalk, (available on bbc player if you have access) patient capital he will be targetting biotech.

    Here is what the fool says about it.

    I guess need to wait for him to start up the fund, but, any thoughts on this being good exposure to biotech? (if he does the same as with his main fund he publishes all the holdings)


    Wait and see what companies are being invested in.

    More biotech products the better for choice and good for those who don't want to go with individual stocks.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,063 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Interested in that Woodford fund myself now, apparently he'll be prepared to bet the other way if the arse drops out of things aswell, Biotech and a bit of hedging, exactly what I'm looking for at the minute...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    ACAD Acadia Pharmaceuticals down 24% it had rallied two days ago when it pulled out of a second conference, this led to rumours it was being bought out.
    Shares soared by near 20% to $45. Yesterday a small fall, then after close of trading we found out why they pulled out of a 2nd conference. The CEO was resigning and a drug has been delayed, today shares down 24%...

    Cellectis ALCLS/CLLS meanwhile are scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on St Patrick's day, they might wait a day or two but that is the expected day.
    Positive thing is Pfizer are buying more shares in the company to keep their stake at 10%.
    The news is demand is said to be high for the IPO.

    Genfit's crucial data could be released as early as Monday, no specific date given, just the 2nd half of March. Will be glad when the data is out.

    We are due a biotech sell off soon, 11 months of increase, with just a blip mid month in October, but that month still ended up higher.
    The PCYC buyout by ABBV really put more fuel into the area.
    Last year the sell off started around this time and peaked in the first half of April. Sell off coming but when is the question...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    http://www.thestreet.com/story/13078249/1/biotech-stock-mailbag-neuralstem-genfit-intercept-amarin.html

    Adam Feuerstein gives his opinion on a few stocks including Genfit.
    RMandel34 writes, "Thank you for the article about Genfit (GNFTF) and the explanation of their NASH [fatty liver] study, but I hope you can help me with a question. You say people expect the Genfit study to be successful but if that is true, why would Intercept Pharma (ICPT) be acting so strong? Shouldn't Intercept stock fall? If you could clarify this it would be great."

    It's a great question. The chart below tracks six-month performance of Genfit (as it trades on the Paris stock exchange) and Intercept. Both stocks are on uptrend heading into the Genfit's pending announcement of the GFT-505 phase II data in NASH. In March, Intercept, and not Genfit, has been the stronger stock, which seems counterintuitive if investor consensus believes the GFT-505 study will be positive.

    see link for chart

    I asked RBC Capital analyst Michael Yee for help answering this question. "Yeezus," as we like to call him, has a good ear for what professional biotech investors are thinking.
    "Genfit's stock is still near relative highs so people expect [GFT-505] to work," Yee said. "But ever since Intercept received Breakthrough Therapy Designation [for OCA], people realize that it's a drug. People didn't necessarily think so before Breakthrough."
    The FDA awarded Breakthrough Therapy status to Intercept's OCA for NASH at the end of January. Intercept's stock price has been moving higher ever since as investors have become more confident in the company's negotiations with FDA about how to design a phase III study of OCA in NASH.



    Estimates vary (and are controversial), but there could be 12 million people in the U.S. and Europe with a diagnosis of NASH plus advanced liver fibrosis. That's a treatable patient population larger than hepatitis C. With a market so potentially large, multiple drugs could easily find a role, so Genfit's upcoming GFT-505 study results are not winner-take-all stakes.
    When the GFT-505 study results are announced, Yee says to look most closely at the drug's effect on liver fibrosis because this could be where Intercept's OCA could have advantages.

    I think it will be next week sometime before 8am on any given day, that we finally find out how good or bad this is.

    Reverse fibrosis and it would be huge.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭Prezatch


    GLMD (Genfit competitor) surged yesterday, up 16%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    JoeyD wrote: »
    GLMD (Genfit competitor) surged yesterday, up 16%


    If Genfit has good data and Bank of America expects it to meet expectations, then Genfit is currently undervalued compared to ICPT, but GLMD is is arguably very undervalued at the moment if their drug works as expected.
    I have seen it argued Galmed is the better play but Genfit with good data would be excellent too.
    Genfit is down at the moment but nothing unusual before major data is released. But I see the same with other French bios down too.
    Beginning to think it will be next week for the data.

    Galmed having another good day too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Sold my BLUE shares for a small profit yesterday, wanted the money for Medigene (MDG1)
    Bought this morning at €6.83, these shares have been on fire in recent weeks, did consider when in the €4s but didn't have the courage of conviction.
    I think this data is amazing and if the same is shown in further clinical trials then this stock is way undervalaued.
    http://www.abstractsonline.com/Plan/ViewAbstract.aspx?mID=3682&sKey=eae2d342-dd5a-41ba-9eb4-63990d3122b8&cKey=1ff23671-9f76-44fd-891b-50b8fbfdd1b6&mKey=19573a54-ae8f-4e00-9c23-bd6d62268424

    Morgan Stanley bought 6.32% of the company in recent days.

    Will buy back into BLUE. also want stake in ONCE, maybe KITE and AERI too.

    Biotech is gone a bit crazy today.

    I did consider buying ESPR last year at $23, then at $50, thought it was chasing at $85, currently it is $117, still not buying :pac:
    But I think it could go a lot higher as it is a very real buyout candidate, which I think is what is driving the price.

    It is an unreal day today...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 627 ✭✭✭zpehtsfd


    Big news tomorrow for biotech with Biogen (BIIB) releasing Alzheimers data. Some crazy valuations in this sector now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    zpehtsfd wrote: »
    Big news tomorrow for biotech with Biogen (BIIB) releasing Alzheimers data. Some crazy valuations in this sector now.

    Yeah, really looking forward to seeing how this pans out.
    I have no position but I really hope it is great news.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 838 ✭✭✭lucky john


    Malin are floating next week. They have already raised €290million so obviously in demand. have you been hearing anything about the quality of investments they have lined up Robert.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    lucky john wrote: »
    Malin are floating next week. They have already raised €290million so obviously in demand. have you been hearing anything about the quality of investments they have lined up Robert.

    First what we don't know. They will invest in three to five companies that are as yet unnamed,

    The ones we know:
    Kymab is a British company and it also has backing from Bill and Melinda gates.
    From their website:
    We are building a rich pipeline of assets in 3 therapeutic spaces: immuno-oncology, immunology and opportunistic. Our most advanced assets will enter development this year with proof of concept readouts in 2019.
    http://www.kymab.com/pipeline.php They have strong backing and in an area that is going to revolutionise the world.

    Xenex is another company, this one is interesting, using robots to clean hospitals and kill germs. It uses UV light to kill germs and results so far shows that the rate of infections are lower where this technology has been employed. 56% lower rates of infection.
    http://www.xenex.com/xenex-history/
    Can see robots being a key part of the hospital cleaning team.

    Viamet were going to list on the Nasdaq last October, it was at the time of a mini correction before normal exuberance in biotech resumed...
    The people behind Malin came in and gave them the money they were going to raise from the IPO.
    http://www.viamet.com/products
    In the fungal area, I don't know an awful lot about them.

    It looks good in my opinion, it will be very popular.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭Prezatch


    ICPT have released clinical results - they need statines to counteract LDL increase. Seems like good news for Genfit

    http://ir.interceptpharma.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=902623


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    zpehtsfd wrote: »
    Big news tomorrow for biotech with Biogen (BIIB) releasing Alzheimers data. Some crazy valuations in this sector now.

    Really like the results for this.
    http://www.thestreet.com/story/13085556/1/biogens-alzheimers-drug-exceeds-or-meets-expectations-depending-on-your-view.html?
    Just a certain gene causing problems with the drug in some patients, it looks the best drug yet for alzheimers.

    JoeyD wrote: »
    ICPT have released clinical results - they need statines to counteract LDL increase. Seems like good news for Genfit

    http://ir.interceptpharma.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=902623

    Market likes the results, ICPT has a clear run now for their drug. The statins offered the solution that ICPT needed.
    Be great if Genfit could have positive fibrosis data, only problem is the clinical trial ICPT used was over 72 weeks, while Genfits was over 52 weeks, some people who deal with liver disease think those 20 weeks could be vital to the data.
    Meanwhile the wait goes on...

    Should be another green day in bio land as the talk goes on whether this is sustainable or a bubble...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,988 ✭✭✭Andrea B.


    I'm
    Medigene (MDG1)
    Bought this morning at €6.83, these shares have been on fire in recent weeks, did consider when in the €4s but didn't have the courage of conviction.
    I think this data is amazing and if the same is shown in further clinical trials then this stock is way undervalaued.
    Cheers. Nice 11% EOD. Peaked to 20%, but based on their abstract I will hold.
    Along with my AAVL and STML this week, a beer is deserved.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,988 ✭✭✭Andrea B.


    Medigene (MDG1)
    Bought this morning at €6.83, these shares have been on fire in recent weeks, did consider when in the €4s but didn't have the courage of conviction.
    I think this data is amazing and if the same is shown in further clinical trials then this stock is way undervalaued.
    Cheers. Nice 11% EOD. Peaked to 20%, but based on their abstract I will hold.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Andrea B. wrote: »
    I'm
    Cheers. Nice 11% EOD. Peaked to 20%, but based on their abstract I will hold.
    Along with my AAVL and STML this week, a beer is deserved.

    Great to hear you caught some of it.

    Medigene had a crazy day alright, got a little concerned when it opened 10% down, but it was up 18% yesterday, so it went from that to as you explained, crazy, then profit taking towards close.
    I have seen two different technical analysis for the stock - all are positive, one has it going back down a bit before soaring to well over €20 and close to €30.
    The other just has it soaring to those levels.
    I don't know, hope it is does happen, but at a market cap of €122 million, even if it goes to a market cap of €300 million, that's over €20.

    Here is a video and in the second link an interview with a doctor in Oslo. Both are from the Australian broadcaster ABC.
    The video is of an Australian who had a tumor the size of an orange in his brain three years ago with months to live. The interview is from the doctor who treated him using Medigene's dendritic cell vaccine.
    He should be dead, so this is a great story.

    http://www.abc.net.au/austory/specials/thebackofhismind/default.htm

    http://www.abc.net.au/austory/content/2012/s3941581.htm


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Bought a small amount of Cellectis earlier today at €31 a share for a long term hold.
    They will be doing an IPO on the Nasdaq later this month, share price is up huge this year and for the past 12 months, but gene therapy stocks are hot.
    Pfizer bought a 10% stake in the company last year, and did a deal for the development of 15 of their gene therapy (CAR-T) drugs, Cellectis received an €80 million milestone payment and will receive $185 million for each successful therapy they produce plus royalties, potential $2.8 billion plus royalties, just potential at this stage.

    Cellectis (ALCLS) said will IPO on Thusday on the Nasdaq with 3.5 million shares as an ADR at $36.83 a share, based on a €35 share price.

    http://www.wkrb13.com/markets/531959/cellectis-s-a-prices-ipo-at-36-83-per-share-clls/

    Pfizer buying more to keep their stake at 10%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Andrea B. wrote: »
    Cheers. Nice 11% EOD. Peaked to 20%, but based on their abstract I will hold.

    They were a good buy so far...
    https://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AMDG1&ei=JNIPVbm6HsX_wAO444HwDw

    edit, we are in double figures. one at this stage wish they had bought more initially...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭mickman


    Bio is in a bubble - its like tech in 1999

    Who knows how far it will go though - still plenty time to enjoy the ride up


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Medigene up 39% today on the Xetra index, and closed up 45% in Frankfurt. They announced today they were starting a phase I/II study with their dendritic cell vaccine to treat Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (AML).
    Since I bought last Thursday, shares are up 118%.

    I wonder if Genfit will announce NASH results tomorrow, I hope they do...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,063 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Good going Robert, don't suppose you've ever come across Scancell Holdings SCLP in your research or have an opinion do you? They're more pharmaceutical but Im thinking about it, cancer vaccine pipe dream but the trials keep coming back good, they've pulled back recently and Im tempted to take a small punt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,988 ✭✭✭Andrea B.


    +1 to Robert. Up 80% for me.
    Sorry did not buy more yesterday, but put off as I needed to transfer from a weak $. Pity, as today's climb would've absorbed any loss there. Could not be happier though😊.


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