Biotech talk/news/rumours and ideas

RobertKK

A thread to discuss what it says in the title: talk, news, rumours and ideas for investment.
This is so discussion won't ruin other threads like the 'Shares 2015' thread by what may look like hijacking by me (and I don't want that), which would be totally unfair on others who put across their ideas, and who are getting excellent returns, long may that continue.


Warning: Biotech is a high risk area for investment.
One can get high returns, but equally if a biotech company gets bad clinical data, depending on the size of the company and its pipeline, the losses can be very high.
The warning is very important in my opinion

zpehtsfd

Good idea Robert. Came across this tweet yesterday re. Genfit:

https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein/status/572497246710861826

Some great info on Twitter.

RobertKK

zpehtsfd wrote: »

Good idea Robert. Came across this tweet yesterday re. Genfit:

https://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein/status/572497246710861826

Some great info on Twitter.

Yes, some over thinking there :pac: but in regards to ICPT, they had their earnings report yesterday and they mentioned Genfit twice in their conference call, one could take from that, that ICPT seemingly expects good results for Genfit, they said the market was big enough for everyone.
One reference was to the definition of NASH not being defined and how it has been different for both themselves and Genfit.
The other was Genfit was mentioned in terms of the large population of people who suffer from NASH and how the market is big enough for everyone. 15% of the US and 10% of the European population are said to have NASH.

March 20th is the expected date for phase 2 b results to be announced. I'll be nervous, excited and wishing it was over in the meantime. The countdown is on...

Cute Hoor

OREX up around 30% today after being granted a US patent for Contrave. There will likely be more good news for OREX this month when Contrave (Mysimba in EU) is approved by the EU Commission, already approved by the EU Regulators, approval may already be priced in of course.

RobertKK

Cute Hoor wrote: »

OREX up around 30% today after being granted a US patent for Contrave. There will likely be more good news for OREX this month when Contrave (Mysimba in EU) is approved by the EU Commission, already approved by the EU Regulators, approval may already be priced in of course.

Now +53%.

Great turn around in this stock since it initially didn't get approval last year, and went down. That when I owned it, not when it soars...

zpehtsfd

Cute Hoor wrote: »

OREX up around 30% today after being granted a US patent for Contrave. There will likely be more good news for OREX this month when Contrave (Mysimba in EU) is approved by the EU Commission, already approved by the EU Regulators, approval may already be priced in of course.

It's not just about the patent it's about the heart-safety benefit seen in the CVOT trial. The is very big news if results can be replicated.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13065624/1/orexigen-weight-loss-pill-shows-surprise-heart-safety-benefit.html

RobertKK

Looks like OREX could be in big trouble with the FDA, OREX had an agreement with the FDA not to release the interim results because it jeopardises the conclusion of the study.
The problem is some of the patients might opt out of the trial given there is a 50% chance they are on the placebo, and not Contrave.
If the trial cannot be completed, it is bad news, one report puts a new completion date for a new trial after delays to be completed by 2022...

Amateurs...

Cute Hoor

Oops!!

That doesn't sound good, if it's to be 2022 this will surely tank tomorrow

RobertKK

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Oops!!

That doesn't sound good, if it's to be 2022 this will surely tank tomorrow

Some of the analysts have been bullish given the cardiac data, sort of what is known can't be made unknown.
OREX said they did it as they needed to patent given what they knew.
FDA said the executives of the company were not suppose to know this data, people underneath then yes, but it was suppose to be the least amount of people as possible in the company as they worked through the trial.
Share price did fall a lot off its highs but it will probably rally some again today.

RobertKK

See the sudden spike in Genfit today after a pretty boring few hours?
New rumour they are looking to sell the company.
Maybe they see it as best for shareholders including themselves if the news is good for GTF505, rather than raising cash or getting a partner.

RobertKK

More on the Genfit sale rumours: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/drugmaker-genfit-said-to-weigh-sale-amid-health-care-deal-boom

They are deciding on whether to sell, it depends on the trial results.
Current valuation is 3 times less than ICPT for the same area.

Cute Hoor

Looks like NURO might have a bit of a run today
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/neurometrix-exceeds-indiegogo-campaign-goal-120000323.html

hmmm

I love love love Biotech. There have been previous times where Biotech shares boomed, and in all those previous booms the prices fizzled out, but this time I think is different (I know those are dangerous words). It seems to me that Biotech has an investing cycle of around 20 years - initial discovery of some fundamental medical science, followed by a wave of investment, followed by disappointment as the discovery turns out to be more difficult than thought to manipulate, followed by investment collapse. 20 years later, after a lot of patient work, the first actual products start emerging and the boom restarts.

We've seen it with genetics, we're seeing it with stem-cells, we're seeing it with immunology. The stuff that is coming out of labs now is absolutely mind-blowing - in particular we are beginning to finally get a handle on the basics of life and we're no longer simply throwing darts blindfold - instead we're beginning to understand the basics and choosing which weapon is the most appropriate. I read today that DARPA scientists were able to enable a paraplegic woman to pilot a flight simulator - it's not strictly Biotech, but it does show that our understanding of something as fundamental as the brain has improved massively, and we're on the verge of some amazing changes.

In saying all that, it is a complete mindfield for investment. I've long thought a Biotech fund or ETF was the way to go, and my investments have proved that right over the past few years. Unless you're a lunatic, you'd have Biotech in as only a small bit of an overall portfolio, because who's to say we won't see yet another collapse in the coming years.

RobertKK

hmmm wrote: »

I love love love Biotech. There have been previous times where Biotech shares boomed, and in all those previous booms the prices fizzled out, but this time I think is different (I know those are dangerous words). It seems to me that Biotech has an investing cycle of around 20 years - initial discovery of some fundamental medical science, followed by a wave of investment, followed by disappointment as the discovery turns out to be more difficult than thought to manipulate, followed by investment collapse. 20 years later, after a lot of patient work, the first actual products start emerging and the boom restarts.

We've seen it with genetics, we're seeing it with stem-cells, we're seeing it with immunology. The stuff that is coming out of labs now is absolutely mind-blowing - in particular we are beginning to finally get a handle on the basics of life and we're no longer simply throwing darts blindfold - instead we're beginning to understand the basics and choosing which weapon is the most appropriate. I read today that DARPA scientists were able to enable a paraplegic woman to pilot a flight simulator - it's not strictly Biotech, but it does show that our understanding of something as fundamental as the brain has improved massively, and we're on the verge of some amazing changes.

In saying all that, it is a complete mindfield for investment. I've long thought a Biotech fund or ETF was the way to go, and my investments have proved that right over the past few years. Unless you're a lunatic, you'd have Biotech in as only a small bit of an overall portfolio, because who's to say we won't see yet another collapse in the coming years.

I'm a lunatic :pac: but I don't invest and forget.

I agree with what you say. What is happening in biotech at the moment is going to change the world, only problem it might be the more well off who will benefit most. Life expectancy should increase by a lot.
I 100% believe all cancers will be 100% curable with gene therapy. I read today that there are over 1,000 cancer immunotherapies being worked on around the world.

There is a hell of a lot of cures, treatments and vaccines coming down the line. The coming years and decades should be amazing.
Life as we know it changing forever.

I love biotech, so I invest in what I love, as it keeps me excited and wanting to learn more.

zpehtsfd

Nasdaq 5000 built on biotech this time

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=111421568

RobertKK

A couple of months back it was recommended to me to buy PCYC, I didn't, it was $129 a share.
ABBV bought them, the rumours for the last couple of days were JnJ were buying them. Only two weeks ago the CEO of PCYC said the company was not for sale at any price.
Sale price $261.25 a share in a mixture of cash and stock.
Edit to add, you could have bought PCYC for under $1 a share back in 2009.

Prezatch

Are there any decent EUR denominated Biotech ETFs that people know of?

RobertKK

JoeyD wrote: »

Are there any decent EUR denominated Biotech ETFs that people know of?

Going by this I would say no, but I don't know. : http://europe.etf.com/europe/features-a-news/10329-source-launches-europes-first-biotech-etf.html?Itemid=126

RobertKK

Phenomenal day in Biotech land.

The ABBV buyout of PCYC for what some believe is overpriced, sent stocks soaring.

GERN, one of the stocks I have in my shares 2015 list soared 34.5%, some of that due to the PCYC deal, but an analyst also came out and said they expect the stock to double in value this year.

The gene therapy (CAR-T) stocks continued their run, highlight being BLUE up another 12%.

Just loads of green, then you get a stock like CNAT, they will have NASH data later this month, big month in that area when you include GNFT and ICPT, but for CNAT their chief medical officer resigned, announced after the close. They were having a very good day till then,up 4.6%, after hours trading and down 14%.
Seen claims of a clash of egos at the company rather than it being data related to a trial as being the reason, I don't know.

Has to be a pull back soon, can't keep rising, but one will not refuse days like today.

Cute Hoor

Phenomenal day indeed, great move for GERN, and after hours OREX has tanked.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2015/03/05/top-fda-official-says-orexigen-data-unreliable-likely-false/

RobertKK

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Phenomenal day indeed, great move for GERN, and after hours OREX has tanked.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2015/03/05/top-fda-official-says-orexigen-data-unreliable-likely-false/

This story just keeps giving and giving, idiots are running that company, surely they must have known the rules and regulations. If I was a shareholder, I would be raging right now, just can't believe how stupid the people who run that company have been.
Message is nobody messes with the FDA.

zpehtsfd

RobertKK wrote: »

Phenomenal day in Biotech land.

The ABBV buyout of PCYC for what some believe is overpriced, sent stocks soaring.

GERN, one of the stocks I have in my shares 2015 list soared 34.5%, some of that due to the PCYC deal, but an analyst also came out and said they expect the stock to double in value this year.

The gene therapy (CAR-T) stocks continued their run, highlight being BLUE up another 12%.

Just loads of green, then you get a stock like CNAT, they will have NASH data later this month, big month in that area when you include GNFT and ICPT, but for CNAT their chief medical officer resigned, announced after the close. They were having a very good day till then,up 4.6%, after hours trading and down 14%.
Seen claims of a clash of egos at the company rather than it being data related to a trial as being the reason, I don't know.

Has to be a pull back soon, can't keep rising, but one will not refuse days like today.

Yes great day bar my CNAT. I sold in AH once the CMO resignation news came out.

OREX trainwreck also. FDA putting them to the sword. Looking to buy high $5's today hopefully. GL

Thargor

Anybody got any TRIB Trinity Biotech? Irish HIV kit maker with a lot of acquisitions in other products. By far my best performer and a small dividend. Seem to be stuck at 18 now though after peaking at 25, cant decide whether or not to stick with them. there were a couple of years there where they just rose every single week.

RobertKK

Thargor wrote: »

Anybody got any TRIB Trinity Biotech? Irish HIV kit maker with a lot of acquisitions in other products. By far my best performer and a small dividend. Seem to be stuck at 18 now though after peaking at 25, cant decide whether or not to stick with them. there were a couple of years there where they just rose every single week.

No, got none, don't know much about them, but up on a fairly red day is always nice.
Maybe a positive signal. Up 5.5% for the week.

RobertKK

This is a good read for anyone else who bought GNFT shares as I am not the only one here.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2979576-genfit-pivotal-phase-iib-data-on-nash-offers-high-risk-reward-trade

Describes the risk and what they expect, it says good results, double the stock price, bad results half it.
But he goes for the stock to be somewhere between €70 to €80 before results.

The author is quite bullish, personally I am nervous and excited because it could be great, it could be potentailly awful.

There is an interesting Deutsche Bank price target on the company based on various outcomes in that article too.

RobertKK

Bought a small amount of Cellectis earlier today at €31 a share for a long term hold.
They will be doing an IPO on the Nasdaq later this month, share price is up huge this year and for the past 12 months, but gene therapy stocks are hot.
Pfizer bought a 10% stake in the company last year, and did a deal for the development of 15 of their gene therapy (CAR-T) drugs, Cellectis received an €80 million milestone payment and will receive $185 million for each successful therapy they produce plus royalties, potential $2.8 billion plus royalties, just potential at this stage.

Similarly I bought a very small amount of $BLUE shares last Friday, just a starter position. Hoping for a price fall later this month or next to buy some more when I will hopefully sell some other shares.
They potentially have the cure for Sickle cell disease (SCD) and if they do, it will be huge, later this year. The company is putting out very bullish signals and has strong backers.
It is expensive at the moment , but when you think its going to go down it just keeps rising given the company comes with high expectations. They have a lot to live upto.

Both of them in my pension account and long term holds.
Some think the gene therapy area is a bubble, I think it is the future so putting my money where I believe breakthroughs will happen.

Others I want in on include ONCE who may have a cure for a certain type of blindness, some great video of a child who was treated and couldn't see and put on an obstacle course, and then the same child on the same obstacle course after treatment and living a normal life. I believe that gene therapy drug will pass later this year and it gives me hope for AAVL which I currently hold and who have a phase 2 clinical trial reporting in the summerand hopefully they too have cured another type of blindness via gene therapy.

I believe we are living in a golden age and in a few decades time most diseases will be treatable and curable, just hope a cure or treatment for alzheimers and other brain diseases are among them.

RobertKK

Just a technical update on Genfit.
Couple of weeks ago went down to €52.50 from a high of €70, then reached €66 last week. Today hit €53.33 just after opening today and then rallied by going up €4.
A double bottom so it should rise from here and eventually new highs before data.

eeepaulo

Saw neil woodford discussing his new fund on hardtalk, (available on bbc player if you have access) patient capital he will be targetting biotech.

Here is what the fool says about it.

I guess need to wait for him to start up the fund, but, any thoughts on this being good exposure to biotech? (if he does the same as with his main fund he publishes all the holdings)

zpehtsfd

Genfit's Fatty Liver Drug Study Results Are Coming. Here's What You Need to Know.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13075236/1/genfits-fatty-liver-drug-study-results-are-coming-heres-what-you-need-to-know.html

RobertKK

eeepaulo wrote: »

Saw neil woodford discussing his new fund on hardtalk, (available on bbc player if you have access) patient capital he will be targetting biotech.

Here is what the fool says about it.

I guess need to wait for him to start up the fund, but, any thoughts on this being good exposure to biotech? (if he does the same as with his main fund he publishes all the holdings)

Wait and see what companies are being invested in.

More biotech products the better for choice and good for those who don't want to go with individual stocks.

Thargor

Interested in that Woodford fund myself now, apparently he'll be prepared to bet the other way if the arse drops out of things aswell, Biotech and a bit of hedging, exactly what I'm looking for at the minute...