Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Spring/Summer 15

Iancar29

1st of March and all that may as well start fresh with a nice new clean thread for whats awaits us over the next few months

I expect something similar to the activity this morning on the south coast to repeat tonight on the north coast.
A fresh surge of cold air will lead to steepening mid level lapse rates giving some good instability and some Cape too .


Hopefully some up north will get some moonlit sparks or even thundersnow

Oscar Bravo

Recent sparks in the North west

vistafinder

That thunder and lightening show that past west Cork yesterday morning done a fair bit of damage a few miles over the road from me.

Hit a house. They have to move out of it for a while.

Its blew some of the caps off the wall aswell.

Iancar29

Just a quick post before i head to college , a cold front passing through the NW in the next hour or two could bring some activity with it.

If it was summer id be putting on a severe TS warning as all conditions including mid and low level shear would be strong enough for supercells to form . But its not summer and we only have marginal surface heating.

Still though some nice structure isnt out of the question with the odd spark here and there.

http://www.sat24.com/en/gb

Jpmarn

There is a shower line over South east Clare with a few strikes. It is moving over Limerick City and threatening my area. I haven't hear any thunder from this line yet.

Strangegravy

Thunder, lightning and hailstones in Shannon half an hour ago, according to the wife in work.

DOCARCH

Distant, but loud enough boom of thunder here (in Dublin 16).

Iancar29

DOCARCH wrote: »

Distant, but loud enough boom of thunder here (in Dublin 16).

Knew i heard a faint distant clap from here in Finglas

Looks like it would've been a nice cell to photograph from howth!

Decent hail shower here so im happy still

dacogawa

Iancar29 wrote: »

Knew i heard a faint distant clap from here in Finglas

Looks like it would've been a nice cell to photograph from howth!

Decent hail shower here so im happy still

Got Howth from Dun Laoghaire, evil looking cell!

Iancar29

dacogawa wrote: »

Got Howth from Dun Laoghaire, evil looking cell!

I haven't had the chance to use this in awhile so lets kick it off...



PICS OR GTFO!!!!!


:cool:

dacogawa

Iancar29 wrote: »

I haven't had the chance to use this in awhile so lets kick it off...



PICS OR GTFO!!!!!


:cool:

Give me a minute, was trying to dry off after getting hailed in the face...

Speaking of face, in yours Ian!

fleet_admiral

Got caught in a mammoth hail shower in Stephens green around 15:45

dacogawa

Sorry got caught up in stuff, here are the pics...

Look out behind you Howth!


Too Late...


As it passes, one side of Howth must be like night


Quick look left and this is heading right for me! #hailface

DominoDub

5mins of strong Hail with Thunder just now in Dublin 4

DOCARCH

DominoDub wrote: »

5mins of strong Hail with Thunder just now in Dublin 4

I knew I heard a crack/thunder earlier!

Heavy hail shower here (in Dublin 16) in the last hour has left hail drifts. Long time since I have seem them around these parts.

Iancar29

A shot from my attic window ealier looking towards Santry

Irelandcool

any model lately showing any potential for some spanish plumes.

Iancar29

Irelandcool wrote: »

any model lately showing any potential for some spanish plumes.

The NMM had this on the 00z run for Tuesday , but has backtracked since, giving England some better chances . Its all strongly capped though.

ninebeanrows

EURO4 picks up potential thunderstorm activity in and around Greater Dublin area this evening... One to watch

Iancar29

Awaiting the 06z NMM before i get excited..

Iancar29

Yeah 06z shows a small area of instability building this evening but more so in the midlands , East Galway to Meath region.

PPN chart for 6pm


Some slight wind convergence may help initiate things.. Also the frontal feature over at the boarder will be heavier due to this.


Very Isolated area of instability..


Still interesting none the less!

ninebeanrows

6z EURO4 again goes for thunderstorm into Greater Dublin areas..

It coincides with my touchdown at Dublin Airport, so it is guaranteed to happen

ninebeanrows

Iancar29

I'll take that option please!

Rikand

A recent rumble off the kerry coast

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/

And a quite heavy pulse of rain moving up through west kerry into clare at the minute. Some nice heavy rain colours showing on both raintoday and met.ie

Hooter23

Very heavy rain a few minutes ago in Galway got quite dark too...

Iancar29

Dar she blows ! :cool:

Iancar29

Some sferics detected In Wexford, any reports from the area?

snaps

After a very warm week here in southern Poland, today was up to 27c before the storms have kicked off in the last hour.

Oscar Bravo

Lightning/hail in north mayo now along with squally winds.

Oscar Bravo

Some sparks about today

SEPT 23 1989

Nasty looking sky heading into West Dublin now

redsteveireland

Sunrise lit anvil this morning - Low Res phone picture.

Oscar Bravo

Thunder/lightning to the north west of Castlebar now.

Iancar29

A cell just off howth too , fecking typical , was out there on Monday hoping to catch something!!

highdef

Torrential hail shower reported in Celbridge from a developing cell that is only now beginning to appear on radar. Will probably hit Dublin city shortly - there may be sparks by then

Iancar29

My view towards the Airport awhile ago , saw a very faint flash of lightning and a distant roll of thunder

mike2084

Massive hail shower at Punchestown Races today about 2pm accompanied by one flash of lightning and loud thunder.

Iancar29

Some potential for some pulse type thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon in the North Midlands.

06z WRF showing a convective band heading NE


Some few hundred joules of cape and some decent instability should build if morning frontal mess clears quickly enough.


With the total lack of both low and mid level shear, I don't expect anything severe , but will hope the area of wind convergence will help a few active storms kick off.


06z NMM a little less appealing and has the ppn a bit further north.. I will hopefully be out if the risk is more in line with the WRF :cool:

maquiladora

Yep. Midlands and eastern parts probably looking most likely.

A wet start to Sunday in many parts of Ulster and Leinster but brighter, showery conditions elsewhere will soon replace the rain. However, showers will become heavy at times by afternoon, with an increasing risk of thunderstorms in many places through the afternoon and evening.

Bsal

Afternoon looking good

maquiladora

redsteveireland

Some good strong sunshine here in the west, some nice convection kicking off.

FWVT

Some potent lift along a convergence line through the east later this evening

highdef

FWVT wrote: »

Some potent lift along a convergence line through the east later this evening

Would the lack of solar heating at that time mean that there would be a much lesser chance of anything interesting building, with the sun having set and all by then?

Rikand

Nice dark ridge of cloud heading north west of athlone. Not sure if there was anything thundery in it, but I'd say it was very WET!

FWVT

highdef wrote: »

Would the lack of solar heating at that time mean that there would be a much lesser chance of anything interesting building, with the sun having set and all by then?

There will still be plenty of lift through convergence to offset any diminishing diabatic heating at that time. Showers so far have been sprouting up at will, without any cap present. That convergence line later should lead to a more organised setup, though it still remains to be seen how much lightning it will produce (if any).

FWVT

ECMWF has decent CAPE this afternoon.

maquiladora

Looks like first couple of strikes in Monaghan.

Oneiric 3

First few strikes showing up through the mid-west into midlands.

FWVT

Nice development now, as shown by the cyan and red areas.

http://www.nwcsaf.org/NRT_images/ImaGIF_RDT____ORIG_RES_LOOP.html