dollar

dasdog

Tugboats wrote: »

could be a opportunity for a eur.usd short again maybe next week

AUD is where my 15% of my artillery is negatively placed at the moment. I'm not overly confident about Tuesday's Core CPI with the east coast snow in Feb but I'll jump on board if the figure is good. Positive DE manufacturing PMI could set up a storm in between.

For ever odd wrote: »

Today is triple witching Friday, always a crazy day! Also coming to quarter end so profit taking and new set ups will be taken by the big boys.
Do you follow DXY ?

Only on Bloomberg. Didn't know about the 1/4 end. Makes sense now, thanks.

Tugboats

had a small euro short scalp this morning. Would have preferred to get in long this morning as the USDX is looking a little ropey

MarkY91

exchanged 600 euro to dollars on friday getting a rate of 1.03..i knew i should have saw the week out and do it today!

dasdog

CPI results look good. Good time to get on board (right now)...going with the JPY option.

dasdog

New home sales also good. Some very good figures compared to recent data. There's been some profit taking but it looks like an upward trajectory will be solidified.

Tugboats

Managed to join the fun today at 1.10 today after missing out last week

Duckett

Dollar is only going one way for some time to come.

Tugboats

Duckett wrote: »

Dollar is only going one way for some time to come.

which way is that?

Low Energy Eng

Tugboats wrote: »

Managed to join the fun today at 1.10 today after missing out last week

Which way was that?

Tugboats

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

Which way was that?

short

dasdog

I went short just above the 109.5 resistance line among other bad executions yesterday :rolleyes:
Durable goods results were really bad but unemployment figures good earlier as was PMI.
Resistance line has been breached but its back slightly above it now.
EDIT: Just gone 1.094

Saudi/Yemen situation has thrown the cat among the pigeons so aside from the recent bad data I would think parity is a good bit away yet.
I'm taking short term profits where possible but still holding out against AUD which the market started to turn to yesterday before the ME shenanigans.

BoE's Carney losing his voice before 5:30pm would help also!

For ever odd

Yellen has more or less said there will be a interest hike this year, in the past when the Fed starts tighting it has an adverse effect on the dollar. Is it "different this time" or can we follow past trends?

dasdog

Markets were trigger active on Friday evening when she was speaking with long/short cancelling each other out but it ended in a slightly bullish zone. I've no USD positions open as it looks to be in flip a coin territory before the non-farm pay roll and I'm out of ideas right now so no new USD trades except minor scalping (AUD/GBP). Above ¥120.000 tonight but it doesn't look convincing and €/$1.081 is putting up good resistance.

dasdog

Greece seems to be playing its uncertainty role again, 1.0736 now. Still hopping just above 120 Yen.

For ever odd

Markets seem to be pricing in a miss for tomorrow in the non farm payrolls, on the back of weak ADP yesterday. 244k forecast, a higher number should have a bigger impact than a lower number, either way it will be volatile.

Tugboats

For ever odd wrote: »

Markets seem to be pricing in a miss for tomorrow in the non farm payrolls, on the back of weak ADP yesterday. 244k forecast, a higher number should have a bigger impact than a lower number, either way it will be volatile.

Isnt the number already out for those who need it? All we will see is a whipsaw spike on the number and then normal service resumed

For ever odd

Tugboats wrote: »

Isnt the number already out for those who need it? All we will see is a whipsaw spike on the number and then normal service resumed

Maybe those who need it, do know. To be honest I don't know, so I'm just following what the market's are doing and making an assumption on what will happen either way.

MarkY91

i have 600 euro needing to change to dollars. is the euro going to rise or is the inevidable parity and below about to happen? i can change it over on saturday

dasdog

For ever odd wrote: »

Markets seem to be pricing in a miss for tomorrow in the non farm payrolls, on the back of weak ADP yesterday. 244k forecast, a higher number should have a bigger impact than a lower number, either way it will be volatile.

Tugboats wrote: »

Isnt the number already out for those who need it? All we will see is a whipsaw spike on the number and then normal service resumed

With so much money at stake somebody somewhere most likely knows but in Feb it did appear to be caught off guard. Definitely don't be exposed to this one if possible, I've been closing positions the past two days (one CAD put down two months ago that only went positive today). Some relatively obvious but worth a read rough guidelines after the initial madness stops. Should be some good opportunities, good luck.

Fizman

Shocking figures in the NFP 30 mins ago, EUR/USD now gone back to 1.10 and euro will probably continue a rally for a bit. Wall St also crashing which I straddled and currently on a nice little earner that I'm likely to cash out soon enough.

dasdog

Fizman wrote: »

Shocking figures in the NFP 30 mins ago, EUR/USD now gone back to 1.10 and euro will probably continue a rally for a bit. Wall St also crashing which I straddled and currently on a nice little earner that I'm likely to cash out soon enough.

But what about the weather :pac:. Really bad figures with the only positive being a $0.08 increase on hourly earnings. I made the mistake of holding on to a final EUR short rather than realising the loss this morning. Took twice the hit as a result but largely unscathed otherwise.

Went 250 on a USD/JPY short not long after the report. Some technical's are pointing to 117 JPY. I'd like to hear Mrs Jellen's thoughts on the short term prospects

Tugboats

One of those days where free money was available. The 1.10 is a big psychological level and it was never going to hold today

For ever odd

Tugboats wrote: »

One of those days where free money was available. The 1.10 is a big psychological level and it was never going to hold today

Do you think 1.10 will hold next week?

Tugboats

For ever odd wrote: »

Do you think 1.10 will hold next week?

Think next week will be third attempt if I'm right . It may try for the Fomc spike high but I will probably play the level until it fails

For ever odd

Tugboats wrote: »

Think next week will be third attempt if I'm right . It may try for the Fomc spike high but I will probably play the level until it fails

True, maybe a bit higher alot of stop losses will be sitting around that area and just above 1.110. The dollar index bounced off 96.39, that is where the fight will take place in my opinion.

Tugboats

For ever odd wrote: »

True, maybe a bit higher alot of stop losses will be sitting around that area and just above 1.110. The dollar index bounced off 96.39, that is where the fight will take place in my opinion.

Im looking at 96.15s and 95.55s

For ever odd

Tugboats wrote: »

Im looking at 96.15s and 95.55s

Thanks Tugboats, you put me thinking of what I said in my previous post and it seems that both cannot happen. Or can it?
So I started wondering is it possible to use a daily or weekly % movement of the dollar index and compare it to the % movement of the constituents of the index. Allowing for the weighting of each, could it be used to spot imbalances in a pair?
Kinda a light bulb moment, I will have to look into it. Maybe there's a strategy out there already.
Anyone have any thoughts on it?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency

Tugboats

I don't overly use the Dollar index as I don't hold positions too long so not too concerned. I think there's stuff out there about smart money divergence. For example if dollar index is down, cable is up and euro should be up. If euro is down it gives you a good opportunity for a long.

Problem I have is it's hard enough to be doing TA on one pair never mind 2 pairs and an index and timing it all together

Tugboats

Never got a short entry today. Had toyed with 1.1027(NFP spike) but held out for 1.1047(Fomc spike) and it never got there:(

dasdog

Next few hours are make or break. Expected Retail & Core Retail benchmark have been set quite high and the recent run looks to have been down to the March minutes publication. Difficult to tell but I'm bearish overall with a hedge shorting AUD against the pound. EUR range is going to be big on this one whichever way it breaks down.

Fireworks start at 1:30pm, good luck.