dollar

euroboom13

I am not trying to encourage gold/silver hoarding but I strongly believe the dollar needs to devalue massively and very soon. I still think gold is overvalued and that equities is the place to be.

Cheap euro will put it under even more pressure!

Thoughts please.

stevedublin

euroboom13 wrote: »

I am not trying to encourage gold/silver hoarding but I strongly believe the dollar needs to devalue massively and very soon. I still think gold is overvalued and that equities is the place to be.

Cheap euro will put it under even more pressure!

Thoughts please.

A Fed reserve meeting is on Wednesday, maybe they will signal a delay in raising interest rates?

For ever odd

euroboom13 wrote: »

I am not trying to encourage gold/silver hoarding but I strongly believe the dollar needs to devalue massively and very soon. I still think gold is overvalued and that equities is the place to be.

Cheap euro will put it under even more pressure!

Thoughts please.

Can you give some insight as to why you feel so strongly that the dollar needs to devalue massively? We can take it forward from there.

euroboom13

Plenty of reasons.

One very good reason as someone said last week,GDP of Texas is the same in dollars as the whole of russias GDP.

Can't argue with that.

For ever odd

California economy equivalent to eighth biggest in the world.

euroboom13

The dollar is off balance with the rest of the world.

stevedublin

euroboom13 wrote: »

The dollar is off balance with the rest of the world.

That's because other currencies are weakening (QE in Eurozone and Japan) and the low oil price is weakening oil currencies like Russia.
The Fed reserve has finished QE and said they would raise interest rates soon causing the dollar to strenghten.
The US economy seems to be strong enough now not to need a weak currency to support exports.

euroboom13

The dollar has a lot more weakening to do.

What person in his right mind would leave his capitol in dollars now, when he can get such strong value abroad.

When the penny drops that this cannot hold there will be a mass exit of capitol, if its not happening all ready .

Watching closely to see what education I can get for free.

ballyharpat

euroboom13 wrote: »

The dollar has a lot more weakening to do.

What person in his right mind would leave his capitol in dollars now, when he can get such strong value abroad.

When the penny drops that this cannot hold there will be a mass exit of capitol, if its not happening all ready .

Watching closely to see what education I can get for free.

No offence, but where is the information/reason for your doomsday prediction regarding the dollar? You seriously lose any credibility you may have when your statements come across as near conspiracy theories....

euroboom13

ballyharpat wrote: »

No offence, but where is the information/reason for your doomsday prediction regarding the dollar? You seriously lose any credibility you may have when your statements come across as near conspiracy theories....

Nothing doomsday about it!
Russia just devalued without any major controversy.

I am not a doomsday forecaster .(in fact the opposite)

What is the conspiracy theory. The dollar is not worth what its traded at and needs to adjust. When Texas and Russia weight(economically) the same ,there is a screaming imbalance, one that I can't explain.

It will be corrected ,the markets don`t let imbalances like this last.

Might spell doomsday to a lot of people playing the NYSE, but if they are blind to currencies, they shouldn`t be investing across currencies!GLA

(Seriously ,conspiracy theory , the conspiracy is not to question the discrepancy!)

BMmeow

anyone think the dollar might devalue a bit in the next few months?

dasdog

Starting to get a little nervous about the announcement @ 7pm but I'm holding firm, for now.

I'd normally use a tool like this for code diffs. Wouldn't even attempt to parse the language :pac:

http://projects.wsj.com/fed-statement-tracker

Amirani

Fed rates unchanged.

dasdog

+Consumer sentiment
+More jobs
-Low salaries of those jobs
-Lower inflation on oil prices

Slightly dovish sentiment but EUR/CAD/GBP have all fallen on the news. Not the safe haven JPY where my interest currently lies unfortunately for me.
Everyone else is holding (New Zealand for example at 8pm this evening) or cutting rates.
Makes no sense for them to hike in or before June as was expected a few weeks ago. Late Autumn perhaps.

EDIT: It was a 10/0 unanimous decision as opposed to 7/3 expected.

BMmeow

can someone explain this to me? does this mean the dollar will get stronger?

dasdog

BMmeow wrote: »

can someone explain this to me? does this mean the dollar will get stronger?

If you are talking about the Euro/Dollar the more bullish quarters are mentioning parity (€1 = $1) possibly this year which could happen.

The only way the US can devalue is by printing more money which is not something the current Fed are likely to do but I'm open to correction from those more knowledgeable.

Roonbox

dasdog wrote: »

The only way the US can devalue is by printing more money which is not something the current Fed are likely to do but I'm open to correction from those more knowledgeable.

The Fed have had the printing presses running at record pace over the past 5 years. Any sign of an economic slowdown in the U.S and they will crank them up again.

Its sort of a race to the bottom between both currencies, or a 'least bad' competition.

The Euro has been absolutely crushed over the past few months so be wary of a relief rally in the future.

Mr.David

euroboom13 wrote: »

Nothing doomsday about it!
Russia just devalued without any major controversy.

Perhaps this is where you hammer the final nail in your own credibility coffin.:rolleyes:

euroboom13

Mr.David wrote: »

Perhaps this is where you hammer the final nail in your own credibility coffin.:rolleyes:

You think! how do you figure that one?

Low Energy Eng

i think the fed will devalue/QE again to stay competitive, the economy is still very weak

For ever odd

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

i think the fed will devalue/QE again to stay competitive, the economy is still very weak

QE4eva will mean the rest of the world will have to follow suit.
The merry-go-round has to stop sometime.

Low Energy Eng

For ever odd wrote: »

QE4eva will mean the rest of the world will have to follow suit.
The merry-go-round has to stop sometime.

the problem is, no politician or central banker wants it to stop on their watch.

Yellen jawboning that she intends to raise rates is causing volatility, if she does the markets will tank. imo of course

beer_hunter

if they engage in even more QE , american treasuries will be the big winner , U.S treasuries are great value compared to any soverign bonds in europe and have doubled the returns of the S+P this past year

For ever odd

Low Energy Eng wrote: »

the problem is, no politician or central banker wants it to stop on their watch.

Yellen jawboning that she intends to raise rates is causing volatility, if she does the markets will tank. imo of course

It is pre- election year in the states, historically a good year as the PR machines kick in and tell all is good in the hood.

irish gent

It's a waiting came now for the world's markets as it's all over the place Oil is going down still , and The likes of Gold a lot of people have a lot of investments in it so they bought Gold at it's peek and they won't sell off now.

BorneTobyWilde

Should a person be taking his euro saving and exchanging it for some other currency, and if so which currency ?

ballyharpat

there will be no more QE from the US, it only works for a while....it's like a hit for a junkie.....they will try something else, probably spending on infraastructure or other large projects that stimulate the economy but also get people to spend.....

Roonbox

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Should a person be taking his euro saving and exchanging it for some other currency, and if so which currency ?

Not at this stage. It is at a longtime low. The time to exchange has passed.

sin_city

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Should a person be taking his euro saving and exchanging it for some other currency, and if so which currency ?

Gold, Silver, Swiss Francs.

Gold is not overvalued and Silver less.

It has not kept pace with the massive currency creation going on.

euroboom13

sin_city wrote: »

Gold, Silver, Swiss Francs.

Gold is not overvalued and Silver less.

It has not kept pace with the massive currency creation going on.

(gold)It has out paced currency creation since 2001, so it is hard to value, but one things for sure its definitely not bargain basement!

People were using the same argument 2 yrs ago here and were very wrong.($1800 to $1200)GLA

For ever odd

euroboom13 wrote: »

The dollar has a lot more weakening to do.

What person in his right mind would leave his capitol in dollars now, when he can get such strong value abroad.

When the penny drops that this cannot hold there will be a mass exit of capitol, if its not happening all ready .

Watching closely to see what education I can get for free.

This guy has the opposite view to you. Interesting article.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-dollar-and-the-cone-of-uncertainty-2014-12?IR=T

dasdog

Some quite bearish USD signals this week. Short term everything appears to be hinging on the Non-Farm Payroll (expected +237K) and Average Hourly Earnings (Jan 24.57) reports at 1:30pm today.

dasdog

A very strong report which puts USD back on track.

US Jan. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls out at +257k vs. +228k expected
US Jan. Average Hourly Earnings out at 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY vs. +0.3%/+1.9% expected,

A much relieved me. Think I need some Quaaludes after that one.

For ever odd

dasdog wrote: »

A very strong report which puts USD back on track.

US Jan. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls out at +257k vs. +228k expected
US Jan. Average Hourly Earnings out at 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY vs. +0.3%/+1.9% expected,

Upward revisions of November and December to the tune of 147K was a big factor.

For ever odd

Crazy world, all eyes will be on the Fed statement on Wednesday to see if the word "patient" is included/excluded.

euroboom13

Never thought we would see $1.06 ,but it makes the argument for a dollar collapse even stronger.

The dollar is too numerous to be this strong!

MarkY91

euroboom13 wrote: »

Never thought we would see $1.06 ,but it makes the argument for a dollar collapse even stronger.

The dollar is too numerous to be this strong!

you think it could happen? all i seem to find online is articles that the dollar will continue to rise.

im interested as im visiting the states in june and i feel like ive been mugged seeing as the euro was trading at about 1.30 when i booked

euroboom13

The fact that articles are all pointing the other way ,makes me more convinced the dollar has to cave ,but when?,i can't say ,I thought it would have happened all ready.

MarkY91

Do you reckon I should hold off a bit before exchsbging? I'm going in 14 weeks. It has gone dowbhill..fast since booking. Its a killer to be getting almost parity.

euroboom13

I would wait before touching $ but its your money and in the short term it may keep getting stronger, but I believe if it reverses, it will do rapidly.

But the amount of money you are hedging (spending money) isn't worth worrying too much about.

For ever odd

euroboom13 wrote: »

The fact that articles are all pointing the other way ,makes me more convinced the dollar has to cave ,but wh?,i can't sayen ,I thought it would have happened all ready.

The only thing I can think of is the debt ceiling issue in September, otherwise with rates hikes coming at some stage, the dollar looks good.

dasdog

Euro to rise to from $1.06 to $1.10 tonight?

Tugboats

dasdog wrote: »

Euro to rise to from $1.06 to $1.10 tonight?

More than likely back to 1.05 by Friday

dasdog

Tugboats wrote: »

More than likely back to 1.05 by Friday

Just broke 1.10 but the fall back started. Gone from long to short.

Tugboats

dasdog wrote: »

Just broke 1.10 but the fall back started. Gone from long to short.

It seriously hit 1.10? Wow. Turned it off after FOMC it was 1.07s lol

dasdog

1.085 to 1.10 something, 8:02pm to 8:04pm. Back to 1.091. Timed some scalps well after some dreadful profit taking haemorrhaging in the early stages with the Yen.

Tugboats

dasdog wrote: »

1.085 to 1.10 something, 8:02pm to 8:04pm. Back to 1.091. Timed some scalps well after some dreadful profit taking haemorrhaging in the early stages with the Yen.

Wow looks like I missed the fun

dasdog

Tugboats wrote: »

Wow looks like I missed the fun

Moved incredibly quick. 250k spread from 1.076 closed 1.095 Good medicine to counteract the GBP fall this morning,

Tugboats

dasdog wrote: »

Moved incredibly quick. 250k spread from 1.076 closed 1.095 Good medicine to counteract the GBP fall this morning,

Are you holding you short at 1.10 for a while or have you taken profit?

dasdog

Tugboats wrote: »

Are you holding you short at 1.10 for a while or have you taken profit?

Took the profit. Couple of more short scalps since, one closed but I'll leave the last one settle (50k).

Mini rally was people closing Euro shorts anticipating a more hawkish Fed, apparently, after the initial dust had settled.

MarkY91

Does anyone think it it can rise past its current 1.07 before June? Or should I just accept I'm getting just about parity in the post office and exchange now?