Red C Poll

Godge

A new poll out today from Red C. They seem to do one nearly every month.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0114/672484-politics-poll/

Rather than look at in isolation, here are the various parties and their share (of Red C polls) since last September, with the last one today's poll. I haven't included Reboot's 1%, as I can't get it to align so it is under Independent.


FG|28|26|22|21|24
FF|18|18|18|19|18
SF|23|20|22|24|21
Lab|8|8|8|6|8
Ind|21|26|27|28|28
Grn|2|2|3|2|1


The trend is interesting, but much of it is within the margin of error.

Looking at those, the questions I have are as follows:

Are FF ever going to get beyond 18/19%, or is that as far as Martin can bring them?
Are Labour stuck at 8% (assuming December is a one-off)?
Have Sinn Fein peaked, are people seeing though them?
Have Fine Gael bottomed out, is the budget having an effect?

But probably the most important one is, will all of this change as we get closer to an election and people think about what sort of government we need?

Godge

A separate issue is the popularity of the party leaders. I couldn't find comparable data from previous Red C polls online but the current satisfaction ratings for the various leader are as follows:


Enda Kenny 35%
Joan Burton 33%
Micheal Martin 31%
Gerry Adams 27%


Gerry's position in the rankings is quite surprising considering all we have heard on these boards about how the Liam Adams and Mairia Cahill affairs haven't affected him. That may well be true and it may be that Mary Lou's childish antics in the Dail have created a question mark over her leader's suitability for the role of leading the country.

oscarBravo

Graphically:



(I took the liberty of formatting the original post.)

Iwasfrozen

Definitely seems like Labor are making a recovery at SF's expense. Hopefully SF don't go above 20% on election day. Nice to see them being pushed back down to second place anyway.

FF have been stripped back to their core voters, I don't expect them to fall much further if at all.

FG are making a nice recovery and with a few more give away budgets and the water charges issue getting stale they should be on schedule to be in government for 2016.

Godge

oscarBravo wrote: »

Graphically:



(I took the liberty of formatting the original post.)

Thanks, couldn't figure out how to do it.

Rightwing

oscarBravo wrote: »

Graphically:



(I took the liberty of formatting the original post.)

Looking at this graph, FG looks to be in the most volatile position. They need the voter to feel the effects of the recovery, that's too late for Labour.

Go on the independents.

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

Looking at this graph, FG looks to be in the most volatile position. They need the voter to feel the effects of the recovery, that's too late for Labour.

Go on the independents.

The Independent vote is interesting. Here is an alternate view of it:

http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/SBP-December-2014-Poll-Report.pdf


"A lot has been made of the rise of support for Independent candidates in the polls, (rightly so with their share now standing at 28% in this poll) and how this might work in terms of a government after the next General Election. While they will of course do well, it is unlikely that support will remain at such a high level when the reality of forming a government is put to voters.

Traditionally in between elections when voters were less connected to the political situation and unsure of how they might vote in a year or mores time, polling has seen high levels of undecided voters. The proportion of the electorate suggesting they were undecided had often been seen to reach as high as 25% of all those likely to vote. Yet at the moment the level of
undecided voters stands at just 12% of those likely to vote in any General Election.

This may suggest a subtle change in mind set among those being polled who haven’t really made up their mind how they will vote, from simply stating they are unsure how they will vote, to instead being ABP (Anyone But a Party). However, it is quite likely that to some extent that claiming you will support an Independent candidate now, remains a way of not registering support for a party mid election, somewhat in the same way as saying you were undecided in the past. "


If that is true (and without taking a view one way or another on it), then there is 12% of undecideds hiding in the Independent vote. One to watch.

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

The Independent vote is interesting. Here is an alternate view of it:

http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/SBP-December-2014-Poll-Report.pdf


"A lot has been made of the rise of support for Independent candidates in the polls, (rightly so with their share now standing at 28% in this poll) and how this might work in terms of a government after the next General Election. While they will of course do well, it is unlikely that support will remain at such a high level when the reality of forming a government is put to voters.

Traditionally in between elections when voters were less connected to the political situation and unsure of how they might vote in a year or mores time, polling has seen high levels of undecided voters. The proportion of the electorate suggesting they were undecided had often been seen to reach as high as 25% of all those likely to vote. Yet at the moment the level of
undecided voters stands at just 12% of those likely to vote in any General Election.

This may suggest a subtle change in mind set among those being polled who haven’t really made up their mind how they will vote, from simply stating they are unsure how they will vote, to instead being ABP (Anyone But a Party). However, it is quite likely that to some extent that claiming you will support an Independent candidate now, remains a way of not registering support for a party mid election, somewhat in the same way as saying you were undecided in the past. "


If that is true (and without taking a view one way or another on it), then there is 12% of undecideds hiding in the Independent vote. One to watch.

I'm not sure I'd buy into that. The thing about independents is, they may get c 28%, but not secure all that many seats (may just miss out on many, despite getting a lot of votes).

Godge

Rightwing wrote: »

I'm not sure I'd buy into that. The thing about independents is, they may get c 28%, but not secure all that many seats (may just miss out on many, despite getting a lot of votes).

Or, and this is half-way between your view and Red C's, some people may give one Independent a first preference to register protest before giving their second to their regular party/choice for government.

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

Or, and this is half-way between your view and Red C's, some people may give one Independent a first preference to register protest before giving their second to their regular party/choice for government.

True enough, I don't think the Irish electorate (or indeed any electorate) is sophisticated in their use of votes.

Uncle Ben

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Definitely seems like Labor are making a recovery at SF's expense. Hopefully SF don't go above 20% on election day. Nice to see them being pushed back down to second place anyway.

FF have been stripped back to their core voters, I don't expect them to fall much further if at all.

FG are making a nice recovery and with a few more give away budgets and the water charges issue getting stale they should be on schedule to be in government for 2016.

I never thought I'd see SF in second place let alone slipping from first within the margin of error. It really does show how the establishment of FF / FG & Labour have destroyed this country.

Fr Tod Umptious

Uncle Ben wrote: »

I never thought I'd see SF in second place let alone slipping from first within the margin of error. It really does show how the establishment of FF / FG & Labour have destroyed this country.

Not exactly.

What it shows is that people are willing to listen to populists but only to a certain degree.
The economic good news and lower taxes will bring them back to established parties

Support for SF is soft support, a lot less people will be willing to support them in a GE than would in local elections or give them support in a poll.
This trend will continue to evolve as we approach the GE.
The closer we get to the election the less SF can attack the economic good news or its messengers.

For Reals

Godge wrote: »

A separate issue is the popularity of the party leaders. I couldn't find comparable data from previous Red C polls online but the current satisfaction ratings for the various leader are as follows:


Enda Kenny 35%
Joan Burton 33%
Micheal Martin 31%
Gerry Adams 27%


Gerry's position in the rankings is quite surprising considering all we have heard on these boards about how the Liam Adams and Mairia Cahill affairs haven't affected him. That may well be true and it may be that Mary Lou's childish antics in the Dail have created a question mark over her leader's suitability for the role of leading the country.

I salute your non-bias punditry

Good loser

I believe the combined FF/FG vote will always be 50% + in general elections.

BoJack Horseman

Interesting to see the trend since September.
Its pretty consistent.

As an aside, I hate the "independent & others" tag.
Its hardly cumbersome to extract the 4% far-left parties & show the 24% indie stat on its own.

Iwasfrozen

Uncle Ben wrote: »

I never thought I'd see SF in second place let alone slipping from first within the margin of error. It really does show how the establishment of FF / FG & Labour have destroyed this country.

It shows nothing of the sort, it shows people are not happy with the establishment party, not any party has "destroyed" the country.

And btw if we had followed SF proposals during the boom we would have been much much worse off.

Steppenwolfe

For Reals wrote: »

I salute your non-bias punditry

I was just thinking that myself. What a load of codswallop

BoJack Horseman

Steppenwolfe wrote: »

I was just thinking that myself. What a load of codswallop

What was inaccurate about his posts?

Godge

Steppenwolfe wrote: »

I was just thinking that myself. What a load of codswallop

Explain to me why Gerry Adams is now the least popular leader. We had multiple posts on here from the usual suspects only a couple of months ago telling us how he was the most popular leader and that he was untouched by the scandals.

I would like to hear their explanation of what has changed. I didn't advance a particular view, I asked a question.

As always when they go missing, you wonder whether they are awaiting instructions from Belfast.

alaimacerc

Godge wrote: »

Explain to me why Gerry Adams is now the least popular leader. We had multiple posts on here from the usual suspects only a couple of months ago telling us how he was the most popular leader and that he was untouched by the scandals.

My suspicion is that this is a function of "transfer toxicity". If you're a SF#1 voter, then Gerry for Taoiseach, grand so. Fairly small numbers of others happy with that. If you're voting for one of the other three (well, two and a half) main parties you're likely thinking of who'd be a somewhat acceptable leader in the event if a coalition, if it's not your own party's. SF perhaps don't help themselves here by "talking down" their own coalition prospects and intentions. Or are believing their own propaganda that they'll only go into one if they get to lead it.

alaimacerc

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Its hardly cumbersome to extract the 4% far-left parties & show the 24% indie stat on its own.

Hopefully we'll see a more sensible breakdown of this "bloc" as time goes on. At least for the "formal" groupings, once they're somewhat stabilised. It's a nonsense to say "the biggest vote is for 'misc'."

One wonders if it's even a real number. Are these respondents actually going to be voting #1 for any actual independent in their actual constituency? Or are they thinking "I like that guy [_] in the Dáil, I'd vote for him" -- regardless if there's anyone "like-minded" standing where they do have a vote? And if the independent vote goes ten different ways in each, it may elect no-one even where it on the face of it has a quota-and-a-half.

For Reals

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What was inaccurate about his posts?

Just to note that when Sinn Fein are topping, 'these polls carry no real weight' etc.

Godge

For Reals wrote: »

Just to note that when Sinn Fein are topping, 'these polls carry no real weight' etc.

Since this poll came out, there has been a load of sniping on this and the other thread about how I am highlighting a poll when supposedly previously I have dissed them. Not surprisingly, most of those sniping are SF supporters.

However, despite what they all say, I haven't changed my view on the fact that it is a long way to the next election. Here from the OP to the thread is the biggest question I posed:

Godge wrote: »

But probably the most important one is, will all of this change as we get closer to an election and people think about what sort of government we need?

I have also said many times that between elections, individual polls aren't the story, the trend is. That is why I included polls back to last September in the OP.

I have placed a huge caveat over the poll. Why would I do that if I was wanting to crow about FG topping the poll? (incidentally last month SF only topped one of the three polls, FG topped the other two and again I was cautious about their relevance for a general election)

On other posts on the Taoiseach thread, I have drawn attention to the remarks made by Red C about the softness of the FG vote - again hardly something a rabid FG voter would do.

When Gerry Adams is the least popular party leader and SF have gone down in the polls, the easy thing to do is to make snide and sniping remarks about who is posting the factual information, unfortunately it doesn't change the polls. Neither does it help those on the thread who are interested in analysing and looking at what is happening.

I have a genuine interest in statistics and numbers. The idea behind this thread is to follow the polls and analyse them as we get nearer the general election. It is not about scoring cheap political points.

Steppenwolfe

Godge wrote: »

Explain to me why Gerry Adams is now the least popular leader. We had multiple posts on here from the usual suspects only a couple of months ago telling us how he was the most popular leader and that he was untouched by the scandals.

I would like to hear their explanation of what has changed. I didn't advance a particular view, I asked a question.

As always when they go missing, you wonder whether they are awaiting instructions from Belfast.

I have no idea and don't give a toss why he's the least popular leader in those polls. I don't think any of them are doing their party any good as leader. I was simply agreeing with the posters sarcastic remark about your 'non biased punditry'.

You state " I didn't advance a particular view, I asked a question." However, the questions in your OP are loaded with bias. Your 2nd post of the leaders graph is also followed by the Mary Lou remark which highlights your bias once again. In your reply to me you go on about other posters "awaiting instructions from Belfast." Really?

The poll graphs are useful and interesting. Adding bias loaded questions and remarks is not.

Godge

Steppenwolfe wrote: »

I have no idea and don't give a toss why he's the least popular leader in those polls. I don't think any of them are doing their party any good as leader. I was simply agreeing with the posters sarcastic remark about your 'non biased punditry'.

You state " I didn't advance a particular view, I asked a question." However, the questions in your OP are loaded with bias. Your 2nd post of the leaders graph is also followed by the Mary Lou remark which highlights your bias once again. In your reply to me you go on about other posters "awaiting instructions from Belfast." Really?

The poll graphs are useful and interesting. Adding bias loaded questions and remarks is not.

The questions are thrown up by the findings of the poll. If SF had further increased their vote and it was showing as solid, the question would have been different. There are questions for all the parties.

Godge wrote: »

The trend is interesting, but much of it is within the margin of error.

Looking at those, the questions I have are as follows:

Are FF ever going to get beyond 18/19%, or is that as far as Martin can bring them?
Are Labour stuck at 8% (assuming December is a one-off)?
Have Sinn Fein peaked, are people seeing though them?
Have Fine Gael bottomed out, is the budget having an effect?

But probably the most important one is, will all of this change as we get closer to an election and people think about what sort of government we need?

conorh91

Steppenwolfe wrote: »

I have no idea

seriously? You cannot think of any reason why Gerry Adams has suffered a 20% cut in supporters? Any controversy at all in recent weeks… kangaroo courts, rape victims… anything like that come to mind?

I cannot comprehend why SF want to retain at the helm of their party a man who displays no competence for, or interest in, a Government role; who regularly embarrasses the party on economic matters; who makes utterly incredible claims regarding IRA non-membership; and who now sees his reputation sink further, having allegedly impeded justice for underage rape victims.

For how long can the Cult of Gerry survive? I'm no fan of Mary-Lou McDonald, but at least her barmy opinions are more amusing than she is offensive. She carries no personal human-rights' violations baggage, which is a clean slate many of us prefer in our leaders….

irishfeen

FG will be delighted to see their decline bottom out - general elections are all about momentum and ultimately the electorate fearing the unknown.. Unemployment will be under 10% at the next GE and budget 2016 will likely serve to give back every euro they possibly can to those tempted to vote SF/Ind.

I would imagine you will see an all out attack on everything SF from Q3 2015 .. Inside FG/Lab they will be plotting to take SF apart and IMO Adams will be centred around that.

Fr Tod Umptious

conorh91 wrote: »

seriously? You cannot think of any reason why Gerry Adams has suffered a 20% cut in supporters? Any controversy at all in recent weeks… kangaroo courts, rape victims… anything like that come to mind?

I cannot comprehend why SF want to retain at the helm of their party a man who displays no competence for, or interest in, a Government role; who regularly embarrasses the party on economic matters; who makes utterly incredible claims regarding IRA non-membership; and who now sees his reputation sink further, having allegedly impeded justice for underage rape victims.

For how long can the Cult of Gerry survive? I'm no fan of Mary-Lou McDonald, but at least her barmy opinions are more amusing than she is offensive. She carries no personal human-rights' violations baggage, which is a clean slate many of us prefer in our leaders….

IMO Adams remains at the helm because SF is like no other party.
Dissention is not permitted, if it was there would have been a heave long ago.

My fear of a SF led government in Ireland would be that dissention would not be allowed either and our democracy would slowely but surely be lost.

BoJack Horseman

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

IMO Adams remains at the helm because SF is like no other party.
Dissention is not permitted, if it was there would have been a heave long ago.

My fear of a SF led government in Ireland would be that dissention would not be allowed either and our democracy would slowely but surely be lost.

Thankfully, SF have absolutely zero interest in government..... its an awfull lot like hard work.

http://www.thejournal.ie/mary-lou-mcdonald-sinn-fein-government-1865502-Jan2015/

MARY LOU MCDONALD has expressed her view that Sinn Féin would have to be the largest party in the country before it would consider going into the government after the next election.

She knows as well as we do that a 50+ seat SF Dáil representation is all but impossible....
So, why vote for someone unwilling to participate in government?

alaimacerc

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

She knows as well as we do that a 50+ seat SF Dáil representation is all but impossible....

Does sound like she's cranking up the threshold: previously it was just "left-led". Which merely requires:

a) We pretend SF is a "left" party, and not a bunch of nasty nationalist opportunists with some flatpack economic policies.
b) SF, the "hard" left, Labour, and a few "left-leaning" indies add up to more than FF's total. And there will be plenty of indies after the next one fancying they can bluff their way through that one. Even Ming seemed to have the occasional such notion, despite having politics that were anything but.
c) And, the above can reach 79, or at least bluff their way through a vote on taoiseach after an election in which FG is licking its wounds, Labour is trying to get the number of that truck, and they're repeatedly yelled at that they've "lost their mandate" and need to pipe down.

Bigger than not just FF but also than FG seems like a much bigger ask.

So, why vote for someone unwilling to participate in government?

Because they've been told to? It's "building the brand". One more heave the election afterwards. At least for the true believers.

OTOH... It's not going to be good for the transfers, is it? Aside from a few "deep green" FF types that think MLMcD is just spoofing and are salivating at the idea of the all-republican, all the time coalition. That the SF leadership keep trying to talk back down again.

alaimacerc

conorh91 wrote: »

For how long can the Cult of Gerry survive? I'm no fan of Mary-Lou McDonald, but at least her barmy opinions are more amusing than she is offensive. She carries no personal human-rights' violations baggage, which is a clean slate many of us prefer in our leaders….

I think "barmy" is a tad harsh, but I broadly agree otherwise. She has the party's baggage all the same, but she tends to offset it, rather than vastly compound it.

But I can't see Gerry stepping down over the next few years. How would it play up north, or to the "Republican Base"? Maybe some horrible compromise where McD becomes leader in the Dáíl, and Gerry stays as president -- but that was what we had before, so flip-flopping between the two would seem horrifically confused.

Maybe I'm kidding myself, but I just can't get my head around the idea of GA as An Taoiseach ("revolving" or otherwise).