Super XV 2015 General Discussion Thread

sydthebeat

predictor comp

delighted to have gone from last to first in 3 rounds


1 ▲3 sydthebeat 70.49
2 ▼1 Luckygent88 70.16
3 - Swiwi 68.16
4 ▼2 Yeah_Right 66.91
5 ▲1 Kiwi_knock 66.83
6 ▼1 Pudsy33 64.25
7 - Bridge93 57.91


so apart from bridge93, whos missed a few week of selection...
theres only 6.24 points between 6th and 1st.
excellent showing after 11 rounds to be so tight

Swiwi.

sydthebeat wrote: »

predictor comp

delighted to have gone from last to first in 3 rounds


1 ▲3 sydthebeat 70.49
2 ▼1 Luckygent88 70.16
3 - Swiwi 68.16
4 ▼2 Yeah_Right 66.91
5 ▲1 Kiwi_knock 66.83
6 ▼1 Pudsy33 64.25
7 - Bridge93 57.91


so apart from bridge93, whos missed a few week of selection...
theres only 6.24 points between 6th and 1st.
excellent showing after 11 rounds to be so tight

At the start, with the seemingly unpredictable results, it was just a matter of choosing the winning team, and up the table ye'd fly. Now the winning margin is pretty necessary too.

The NZ conference should be a decent run-in, lots of local derbies, I have a feeling our 2 teams will be racing against each other for a playoff spot at the expense of a 2nd SA team.

Swiwi.

I know ABs talk has fairly minimal impact factor on this forum, but Steven Luatua is fast turning into (if not has already become) a one-season (2013) wonder. Benched (and rightly so) for the up-and-coming 19-year old Akira Ioane.

IMO, NZ's best 6 in order are Kaino >> Messam > Brad Shields > Jordon Taufua > Ioane > Luatua. (Counting Victor Vito as an 8, his best position).

In particular, I have been very impressed with Shields this season. I know Taufua has been getting all the rave reviews, but for mine Shields is the more finished product. If Shields doesn't make the ABs in the next couple of seasons, any northern hemisphere club with any bit of nous should make him an offer.

As for Luatua, major work to do, especially as he's signed on recently for another couple of seasons.

stl.ire

Swiwi. wrote: »

I know ABs talk has fairly minimal impact factor on this forum, but Steven Luatua is fast turning into (if not has already become) a one-season (2013) wonder. Benched (and rightly so) for the up-and-coming 19-year old Akira Ioane.

IMO, NZ's best 6 in order are Kaino >> Messam > Brad Shields > Jordon Taufua > Ioane > Luatua. (Counting Victor Vito as an 8, his best position).

In particular, I have been very impressed with Shields this season. I know Taufua has been getting all the rave reviews, but for mine Shields is the more finished product. If Shields doesn't make the ABs in the next couple of seasons, any northern hemisphere club with any bit of nous should make him an offer.

As for Luatua, major work to do, especially as he's signed on recently for another couple of seasons.

Who would you have as the All Blacks back row for the WC on current form? And who would you take as cover in the squad?

I wonder if Luatua is even close to 100% healthy. I know he had injury problems at the start of the season so it might explain some why he's been fairly mediocre. The only other explanation is that the Blues mess is dragging him down (although they haven't been as bad as their results). Did he push too hard to play because of the World Cup and never get healthy? If this is the real Luatua it's a nightmare for NZ as they can't afford to spend biggish money protecting a player from Europe only to see his form fall off a cliff.

Totally agree on Shields, he's the been the best back row on the top super rugby team and a huge reason why the Canes have fronted up and look properly good this season. He's so underrated, particularly when compared to Taufua and Ardie Savea who are better athletes but not as complete. Someone in Europe will make him a rich man soon enough (I think he's just 1 year left on his contract).

If we're talking NZ back row though, I think a huge question is the form of McCaw. Dare i say it, but is there's a case to be made about whether he should start? I know we all hope he'll have a BOD type season where he comes good when it's most important (and he's done exactly that before) but Sam Cane has been a country mile better than him. The way Cane monstered him and the crusaders in that game a few weeks ago was frightening. Even if McCaw gets some form he'll never get back to his peak and Cane just keeps getting better. You could never drop McCaw, certainly not this close to the WC, but are the AB's weaker with him in?

Swiwi.

stl.ire wrote: »

Who would you have as the All Blacks back row for the WC on current form? And who would you take as cover in the squad?

6 - Kaino
7 - McCaw
8 - Read

The encumbent backrow, with Kaino in savage form, Read in decent enough form, and McCaw currently below par. However, McCaw has proven himself time and again a master of pacing his season, and I reasonably expect him to be sharp for the international season. Nevertheless, I don't think NZ will do a John Smit, so if he doesn't cut it during the 4N, the baton could well be passed to Sam Cane, who will definitely travel as the back-up. RWC injury rules mean you have to carry a genuine back-up for each position, NZ don't want the equivalent of Ben McCalman at 7 because Pocock is injured. If either of those 2 were out pre-RWC, I suspect Matt Todd would get the nod ahead of Ardie Savea, and the unfairly overlooked Luke Braid.

They will also take Liam Messam to cover 6, because of his experience, and he also got completely shafted in 2011 missing out to the average Adam Thomson. If Kaino or Messam are out, I suspect McCaw to 6 or Vito would be next, rather than the uncapped Shields (or even Taufau), but neither of those options fills me with great joy. To cover Read, they will either find a place for Victor Vito who is twice the player of his AB debut, especially at 8, or else use Kaino (or even McCaw) as 8 cover. Vito is injury-prone though, out once again for this weekend with a calf strain.

I wonder if Luatua is even close to 100% healthy. I know he had injury problems at the start of the season so it might explain some why he's been fairly mediocre. The only other explanation is that the Blues mess is dragging him down (although they haven't been as bad as their results). Did he push too hard to play because of the World Cup and never get healthy? If this is the real Luatua it's a nightmare for NZ as they can't afford to spend biggish money protecting a player from Europe only to see his form fall off a cliff.

I am 100% certain Luatua is just on a standard contract like everyone else. These are due to increase somewhat in value with the new broadcasting deal, but he is definitely not a player who the NZRU would have done a deal on. He would have the AB carrott/Lions tour like everyone else, with the associated pay increase if he cuts the mustard. He is a naturally very athletic player, but he is just too loose for a 6, and doesn't clean out rucks properly. He looked like he could be a major star in 2013, but it all started to go downhill vs Ireland at the Aviva. His best chance for the RWC is going as a 6/lock, but I'd be pretty certain he will miss out.

Totally agree on Shields, he's the been the best back row on the top super rugby team and a huge reason why the Canes have fronted up and look properly good this season. He's so underrated, particularly when compared to Taufua and Ardie Savea who are better athletes but not as complete. Someone in Europe will make him a rich man soon enough (I think he's just 1 year left on his contract).

He made an AB extended squad in 2012, but was cut (rightly so) at the time, not due to his own form, but better options then. Then he had a run of injuries, especially last leason which completely stuffed his chances. He is now in excellent form. I think he could well make an extended AB squad this season as injury cover, but need to wait until 2016 for a call-up, which is a good chance with Messam quite possibly going to play 7s for the Olympics. As you say he's off contract after 2016, if there is no sign he is line for an ABs call-up, I suspect he could go overseas, and he would be a great signing, as he also covers 8 and to a lesser extent 7.

Always wary of saying so on an Irish forum, but Taufau reminds me of POM - he likes running at and through things, but not so much round or making a pass instead. NZ's game is an off-loading one, not a smash-em-to-pieces one, and Taufau to my mind doesn't suit that. I will be intrigued by the AB squad annoucement, as I'm sure they will initially name 40-odd players.

If we're talking NZ back row though, I think a huge question is the form of McCaw. Dare i say it, but is there's a case to be made about whether he should start? I know we all hope he'll have a BOD type season where he comes good when it's most important (and he's done exactly that before) but Sam Cane has been a country mile better than him. The way Cane monstered him and the crusaders in that game a few weeks ago was frightening. Even if McCaw gets some form he'll never get back to his peak and Cane just keeps getting better. You could never drop McCaw, certainly not this close to the WC, but are the AB's weaker with him in?

Wouldn't write him off just yet, but keeping a keen eye on proceedings. His experience could be invaluable. On the other hand, other countries like nothing better than seeing McCaw get penalised, and you can bet your bottom dollar that the English media will be driving that to the max, especially if England and NZ end up meeting. Owens strikes me as the type of ref who doesn't get swayed by such things, but I would be somewhat nervous with other refs in charge. McCaw is the type though who would actually rule himself out if he thought he wasn't up to it IMO, in which case Read would step up as captain.

My 2c.

Answers above

RugbyLover123

The Waratahs are more often than not always on go forward ball. Despite this Beale very rarely breaks the line himself or puts someone through, even though Foley seems to be able to do it quite often.
Just something I kept on noticing in the game against the Rebels and some recent games, feel like he has gone backwards as a player.

Morf

Swiwi. wrote: »

I know ABs talk has fairly minimal impact factor on this forum, but Steven Luatua is fast turning into (if not has already become) a one-season (2013) wonder. Benched (and rightly so) for the up-and-coming 19-year old Akira Ioane.

IMO, NZ's best 6 in order are Kaino >> Messam > Brad Shields > Jordon Taufua > Ioane > Luatua. (Counting Victor Vito as an 8, his best position).

In particular, I have been very impressed with Shields this season. I know Taufua has been getting all the rave reviews, but for mine Shields is the more finished product. If Shields doesn't make the ABs in the next couple of seasons, any northern hemisphere club with any bit of nous should make him an offer.

As for Luatua, major work to do, especially as he's signed on recently for another couple of seasons.

Call me a sceptic . . . go on . .. but I think Taufua's relative lack of height would count against him. I think he may be just below 6' or just over it. When it comes to Kaino or Messam (although not huge in stature either has proven his flexibility across the BR) or Shields etc.

Swiwi.

Morf wrote: »

Call me a sceptic . . . go on . .. but I think Taufua's relative lack of height would count against him. I think he may be just below 6' or just over it. When it comes to Kaino or Messam (although not huge in stature either has proven his flexibility across the BR) or Shields etc.

I just can't bring myself to do it, Morf, respect you too much...

Yes, he's not really a lineout option. I will be interested to see if Hansen buys the hype or not. I suspect not. The name Taufua suggests he could also play for Samoa if he wants...

Swiwi.

RugbyLover123 wrote: »

The Waratahs are more often than not always on go forward ball. Despite this Beale very rarely breaks the line himself or puts someone through, even though Foley seems to be able to do it quite often.
Just something I kept on noticing in the game against the Rebels and some recent games, feel like he has gone backwards as a player.

He's the Simon Zebo of Australian rugby - splits the fans down the middle. IMO his best position is 15, but he has 0% chance of displacing Folau from there.

stl.ire

Swiwi. wrote: »

Answers above

Thanks.

I thought Luatua was given something more. They certainly made a big deal at the time about locking him and Kaino down for the Blues. I trust you are right, contracts talk can get confusing.

Would McCaw really step aside if he didn't get back near his best? Maybe he'd pull up with a mysterious injury in training before the tournament! His performances should start improving, and his experience and presence is incalculable for the ABs, but if he doesn't get much better I would be legitimately concerned that a great back row could do a number on NZ's - something that hasn't been done in a while. Particularly with, as you mentioned, northern hemisphere referees.

On the subject of Refs if Wayne Barnes refs anything like he did in the 6nations (whistling up everything) I am 100% confident he'll be reffing the game where either NZ or SA get eliminated. If they meet in the semis he's almost certain to be there (with 2 euros likely in the other semi getting a SH ref like joubert and Nigel maybe saved for the final) and I doubt the southern hemisphere will ever forgive the north for the type of game he would force on us.

To keep the All Blacks conversation going - How do you currently rank the back 3 guys after Savea and Smith? What's your call on the centres?

stl.ire

Swiwi. wrote: »

He's the Simon Zebo of Australian rugby - splits the fans down the middle. IMO his best position is 15, but he has 0% chance of displacing Folau from there.

To be fair Zebo is fairly constant now days. Beale is like old Zebo - up and down performances every game. He will do something magic then be completely out of position in defence the next.

stl.ire

Isn't Steffon Armitage like 5'9 or something?
I don't think Taufua realistically will be on the plane to the WC due to his inexperience in general compared to the other options NZ have. I wonder if he'll risk getting capped in a warm up game as he could definitely find a way into the 40 man initial squad?

Kiwi_knock

Highlanders looking good when they turnover the ball.

Kiwi_knock

Sharks have come back into the game well, 10-10 now. Sharks need to cutout the aimless kicks, and they have a good chance of getting a result.

Kiwi_knock

Ndungane won't want to watch his first half highlights, weak defence for both tries.

sydthebeat

It's the sopoaga show, probably the form 10 in nz right now.

Some rugby!

Still vulnerable to the saffer power plays, but damn exciting stuff

stl.ire

Nice game so far. The Sharks are a bit of a mess, particularly their kicking and back 3 defence, but their forwards are decent enough to do damage.
The Landers should have it wrapped up soon in the 2nd half. Aaron Smith and Sopoaga looking very smooth and in control. They are just picking apart the sharks defence when they get quick enough ball. Sopoaga in particular is having a great game.

matthew8

Sharks defense is just absolutely awful. Their backs not accomplishing much out wide either.

sydthebeat

Seriously sexy rugby by the Highlanders.


Happy days

Swiwi.

Not able to watch this, but Sharks are a rabble this year. I'm taking note to adjust their losing margins for my future picks!

Inappropriate Bruce Jenner joke!

matthew8

Jake White gets a lot of stick from everywhere, but the Sharks must be desperate to have him back. Gold has not worked out at all for them. The defensive organisation is non existent. Very little intensity and the back 3 always positioned very poorly for kicks.

LuckyGent88

Expected a highlanders win but that's a superb performance. Sharks are really disappointing. Expected a lot more from them

Swiwi.

stl.ire wrote: »

On the subject of Refs if Wayne Barnes refs anything like he did in the 6nations (whistling up everything) I am 100% confident he'll be reffing the game where either NZ or SA get eliminated. If they meet in the semis he's almost certain to be there (with 2 euros likely in the other semi getting a SH ref like joubert and Nigel maybe saved for the final) and I doubt the southern hemisphere will ever forgive the north for the type of game he would force on us.

To keep the All Blacks conversation going - How do you currently rank the back 3 guys after Savea and Smith? What's your call on the centres?

Barnes - penalises hard and fast at the start of games, even known to dubiously send people to the bin, doesn't penalise anything at all in the 2nd half. Known to miss the odd forward pass. He's improved, but I'd have Nigel any day.

Centres: Nonu is playing his best super Rugby since years. No brainer for me that it's Nonu/Smith in the starting XV. SBW will travel. That leaves Fekitoa, Crotty and possibly your new friend Piutau if he's taken as a wing/FB who can cover 13. Fekitoa's defence has been excellent this season, and his general game has improved, I still have some issues with his reading of the game on attack. Crotty is a highly reliable, mistake-free sort of centre, not liable to panic (I still have nightmares about Isaia Toeava in 2007, complete possum in the headlights, and I worry Fekitoa might do the same in a high-pressure match), but less impact. I don't think a 31-man squad allows the luxury of 5 centres, so one of Crotty or Fekitoa will miss out IMO. Fekitoa has re-signed with the NZRU, Crotty is yet to do so. No idea if that will have any bearing on things.

Back 3 is highly competitive. Savea is streets ahead of anyone else at 11, but that is in a global context, not just NZ! Ben Smith is locked in at 14 or 15. That leaves Dagg, Jane & Piutau as incumbent ABs, and then from the uncapped bunch you have the Chiefs' James Lowe and Tom Marshall (apparently has cancelled his Gloucester move, as the ABs selectors have indicated interest), the Canes Nehe Milner-Skudder and even Matt Procter, and the Highlanders' Patrick Osborne & Waisake Naholo.

I really, really don't know. I would think they will favour experience over form, at least one of Dagg, Jane or Piuatau will probably miss out. Nehe Milner-Skudder just looks awesome, but maybe a player for 2016. They will definitely want players who are decent under the high ball, as that is likely to be a major play in the RWC (not looking at you Ireland).

I'm going to guess Smith, Savea, Jane, Piutau +/- Dagg.

What do you reckon??

matthew8

Early Brumbies try this one looks a cracker.

sydthebeat

I dont think either piutua or dagg have done anything special this season to make them have one foot on the plane.

personally i think B Smiths best position is 15 and id prefer to see him there than 14, which would open up a position for a specialist 14
im not sure if naholo would get a look in seeing as hes moving north (great business clermont!)
NMS at 15 is a real exciting talent but perhaps a year too soon, given the choice of dagg / b smith.... but id have him ahead of Piutua.

maybe james lowe could switch over? hes having some season.

Swiwi.

sydthebeat wrote: »

I dont think either piutua or dagg have done anything special this season to make them have one foot on the plane.

personally i think B Smiths best position is 15 and id prefer to see him there than 14, which would open up a position for a specialist 14
im not sure if naholo would get a look in seeing as hes moving north (great business clermont!)
NMS at 15 is a real exciting talent but perhaps a year too soon, given the choice of dagg / b smith.... but id have him ahead of Piutua.

maybe james lowe could switch over? hes having some season.

Piutau gets a get-out-of-jail card for the Blues factor...

Dagg has looked good when uninjured...which seems to be hardly ever. He is definitely at risk as he is a specialist FB.

I'm not sure about Naholo's all round game yet, but give him a sniff of the tryline and he's lethal. Seriously good signing for Clermont. Happy days that he's been capped for NZ at 7s, otherwise in 3 years he would be wearing blue/white/red imo.

I think Jane at 14 with Smith at 15 might be what they go for. Definitely NZ's position of most depth, just like Ireland I suppose.

matthew8

Smith and Savea are in great form and have international pedigree, have to be nailed on when healthy. Other spot is up for grabs, all the other internationals haven't been shining. Lowe might be the one for me.

tmq

matthew8 wrote: »

Early Brumbies try this one looks a cracker.

Was just following this online, but it sounds like it fizzled out....? The Oz teams aren't reaching any great heights this season.

sydneybound

Hooper got the better of Pocock!