Fingal / North Dublin Transport Study

MrMorooka

Jesus Christ just build Metro North and DU and be done with it.

Before anyone says it, yes, I made my submission last year, expressing that opinion.

cgcsb

Agreed, we're getting into dangerous what-a-boutery when we start talking about €1bn poorly routed luas extensions that cannot meet long term demand, for the sake of a 50% capital saving in the short term.

AngryLips

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Luas extension to the airport is front runner according to the indo

The biggest problem with this option is that it would add a third northern terminus to the existing BXD/Green line service because it doesn't provide for the opening of any new corridors in the city centre:
- Broombridge
- Dublin Airport/Swords
- Parnell Street loop

Plus it looks like LR3 would leave passengers a good ten minute walk (plus) from the airport terminal. Talk about failing at almost everything. At least Swords town is well served with this option.

cgcsb

AngryLips wrote: »

At least Swords town is well served with this option.

They'd get better frequency and capacity but poor journey time. Ballymun and the airport would receive virtually no benefit from this compared to existing bus services.

Kermit.de.frog

The government must also realise that if they take the luas option they will get a deluge of complaints about Glasnevin.

cgcsb

ABP will probably reject it on heritage grounds in a years time and we'll have some more reports. That's probably what the governments, a delay more than an actual alternative solution.

Andru93

cgcsb wrote: »

Phase one? is DARTu now to be phased? how does that work? Trains terminating at Stephen's Green would involve the construction of a turn back facility.

As far as I can remember someone can correct me if I'm wrong, DART Underground is in two phase.
The First phase connecting Connolly to Hueston via SSG.
The Second Phase is running a DART line the whole way from Hueston to Maynooth.

Van.Bosch

Andru93 wrote: »

As far as I can remember someone can correct me if I'm wrong, DART Underground is in two phase.
The First phase connecting Connolly to Hueston via SSG.
The Second Phase is running a DART line the whole way from Hueston to Maynooth.

DU doesn't connect Connolly ?

stevedublin

AngryLips wrote: »

Plus it looks like LR3 would leave passengers a good ten minute walk (plus) from the airport terminal.

I agree that where the stop is, is quite far from the terminals and inappropriate for passengers with luggage. They could have a section of the luas line going nearer the terminals (like some 41 routes) but that isn't what on the sketch of LR3 route.

monument

I'm unsure of the Luas via Glasnevin option, but...

AngryLips wrote: »

The biggest problem with this option is that it would add a third northern terminus to the existing BXD/Green line service because it doesn't provide for the opening any new corridors in the city centre:
- Broombridge
- Dublin Airport
- Parnell Street loop

The loop isn't a terminus, there would be no Dublin Airport terminus and Broombridge can be extended to Finglas and interchange with Swords line between Ballymun and the airport.

AngryLips wrote: »

Plus it looks like LR3 would leave passengers a good ten minute walk (plus) from the airport terminal.

That's a bigger issue.

cgcsb wrote: »

They'd get better frequency and capacity but poor journey time. Ballymun and the airport would receive virtually no benefit from this compared to existing bus services.

Ballymun and DCU would get capacity and reliability benefits and low floor trams offer quite a number of benefits over buses. I'm guessing you know these even if you disagree.

cgcsb wrote: »

ABP will probably reject it on heritage grounds in a years time and we'll have some more reports. That's probably what the governments, a delay more than an actual alternative solution.

If ABP rejected a tunnel under a graveyard due to risk of collapses etc, they'd never be able to green light a tunnel under houses.

cgcsb

Andru93 wrote: »

The First phase connecting Connolly to Hueston via SSG.

DARTu bypasses Connolly

Andru93 wrote: »

The Second Phase is running a DART line the whole way from Hueston to Maynooth.

When was this floated? how would it work?

cgcsb

monument wrote: »

Ballymun and DCU would get capacity and reliability benefits and low floor trams offer quite a number of benefits over buses.

But ultimately slower service

monument wrote: »

If ABP rejected a tunnel under a graveyard due to risk of collapses etc, they'd never be able to green light a tunnel under houses.

The risk of collapse isn't what'd kill it, it'd be 'heritage concerns'

AngryLips

monument wrote: »

The loop isn't a terminus, there would be no Dublin Airport terminus and Broombridge can be extended to Finglas and interchange with Swords line between Ballymun and the airport.

Sorry, I meant the Swords terminus and not the airport (since corrected in my original post). You're right that the loop is not a terminus but for every tram originating on the southside that serves the loop, that's one less service to Broombridge/Swords. The loop risks becoming the Green Line's version of the Connolly spur.

Also, extending Broombridge to Finglas would only place further demand on this branch meaning that all services on Broombridge, Swords and the Parnell Square loop will be restricted by the capacity of the Green Line as far north as O'Connell Street/Marleborough Street. If extended to Finglas then I expect the RPA to give serious consideration to considering an addition north-south alignment for Dublin within the canals.

Aard

AngryLips wrote: »

If extended to Finglas then I expect the RPA to give serious consideration to considering an addition north-south alignment for Dublin within the canals.

Such as the mysterious Luas D2 Phase 2 perhaps.

Or maybe we'll get a Luas E alignment filler-in between Broadstone and Patrick Street :pac:

Van.Bosch

Aard wrote: »

Such as the mysterious Luas D2 Phase 2 perhaps.

Or maybe we'll get a Luas E alignment filler-in between Broadstone and Patrick Street :pac:

Or maybe we'll get nothing at all!

Andru93

Van.Bosch wrote: »

DU doesn't connect Connolly ?

So it connects Hueston to Pearce and Docklands Memory is a little rusty to day,

cgcsb wrote: »

DARTu bypasses Connolly


When was this floated? how would it work?

Memory is a good bit rusty today.
So there would be a DART going from Connolly out to Maynooth.
And another DART Line going from Hueston to Celbridge / (possible Sallins)

Jack Noble

I was at the FG public meeting in The Comet in Santry last week addressed by Rory O'Connor of the RPA, Barry Kenny of Irish Rail and Derry O'Leary of Dublin Bus.

Much of the meeting was taken up by people from Santry and surrounding areas raising serious issues they had with Dublin Bus over routes, capacity, overcrowding, future plans, etc.

Regarding the rail projects being examined by the RPA and IE, the following can be summed up.

ROC glossed over Metro North/Optimised Metro North. MN cost reduced by shorter trams and platforms (60m as opposed to 90m, therefore less rolling stock needed), at grade through Ballymun, Parnell and OCB station replaced by one on OCS. He concentrated on LR3, the Swords-Cabra Luas line via tunnel under Glasnevin. As has been posted, they even had nice detailed maps and brochures about it to hand out. It is clear to me that ROC and RPA fear/believe/know for certain that Metro North in any version is off the table -- hence the big sell on LR3/Luas. He said Luas can do airport to SSG in around 30 mins and there will initially be 12 trams per hour. Capacity can be increased as demand dictates. It can be built for around €700m.

BK talked about the Dart spur to the airport from Clongfriffin to the airport. Cost €200m and it can be built quickly. Again, it's clear IE hope/believe/know they'll get the nod for this if LR3 goes ahead.

DOL gave the big sell on BRT/Swiftway. Project will cost €200m. Given the reaction from people at the meeting, many of whom were hostile to Dublin Bus based on experience, I don't think he got much traction. People simply weren't convinced that BRT would be the 'Luas on wheels' as DOL described it to them.

I asked ROC a number of specifice questions and these are the answers I got:

1. Is Metro North off the table?

He didn't give a clear Yes or No and simply said it's up to the NTA to decide what is the best option/options based on the current study.

2. Given that the DTO in Platform for Change recommended Metro for the Swords-Airport-City line over Luas because light rail lacked the capacity to meet forecast demand on the route and this was confirmed during the Metro North planning stages, how come Luas now can meet demand, given that the population numbers and employment numbers in the GDA have passed the DTO's predictions, despite the economic crisis post-2008?

Here, ROC said that since the crash, the predicted growth figures and passenger demand has been scaled back to reflect the fact that previous figures were based on much faster and stronger predicted economic growth. He said he believed the DTO had been over-optimistic in their modelling. ROC also said they believe current and future demand on route can be met with Luas LR3, which he said can have capacity increased to 7,500 pphpd, and ultimately to 9,000.

3. Who in their right mind thought that a tunnel under Glasnevin Cemetery (for LR3 and HR8 options) would get political approval given the hysteria whipped up over digging up SSG and OCS for Metro North?

ROC replied that they have a number of options for the tunnel under GC, including some that skirt the edge of the cemetery and that they have discussed it with interested bodies but ultimately it is a planning decision for An Bord Pleanala and not for politicians. He said he attended the ABP hearings on Metro North and there was no opposition or hysteria to tunneling under OCS and SSG. (That was met with some surprise by a few people in the room. I pointed out Mr O'Connor may have missed the coverage/opposition/hysteria in the Irish Times and Irish Independent and other media at the time).

My own conclusions from the meeting and listening to what was said are:

1. A combination of BRT, Luas and Dart to airport are the only games in town now as far as DB, RPA and IE are concerned. The NTA may reach a different conclusion and say Metro North is needed but I'm doubtful about that given how much work as gone into this study from the transport planners.

2. RPA and others are ignoring history and once again underestimating future demand in order to get reduced funding now to 'do something', hence we are looking at cheaper options than Metro. I found ROC's comments re DTO particularly strange given where we are now with population figures and employment numbers in Dublin, despite the crash and looking at current recovery and growth. DTO predicted Greater Dublin Area population of 1.75m by 2016. Census 2011 recorded GDA population of 1.85m. Prediction on current trends for GDA pop in 2016 is that it will exceed 2m. If anything, DTO were too conservative in their modelling. One of the good aspects of both Metro North and Dart Underground was that they were planned with plenty of capacity expansion factored in to cope with rapid growth scenarios.

3. RPA are deluding themselves if they think any tunnel under Glasnevin Cemetery will not become a political hot potato. Ministers may not have a role in the planning process but they have to approve funding for such a project. I just don't see that happening given the fact that Glasnevin is the national cemetery and hallowed ground in terms of Irish history. I may be wrong but history would suggest otherwise. Once enough hysteria around a project is whipped up, politicians run a mile from it. And I say that as someone who believes that we could safely tunnel under Glasnevin without disturbing a single grave. Any tunnel will be 20m below ground, according to an RPA engineer I spoke to after the meeting but I doubt that will matter to those who will oppose any tunnel under GC. On street options LR4 and LR5 will need to be kept handy.

4. I look forward to the Tribunal/Dail Inquiry circa 2025 into how we spent more than €1billion in 2016-2023 building BRT and (delayed) Luas (on street} from Swords/airport to the city centre and still leave thousands of angry punters every morning/evening having to wait in the rain for bus/tram because someone seriously underestimated future demand back in 2015.

Aard

Any mention of the "people mover" from O'Connor?

monument

The RPA don't have a good history in predicting demand with Luas -- their models are too conservative or just broken.

monument

cgcsb wrote: »

But ultimately slower service

That that public event they were claiming 25 mins to DUB and 35mins to Swords. Seems optimistic to me.

But given. That they bypass very congested streets, I can see how they could get to the city centre quicker than buses from DCU or Ballymun.




The risk of collapse isn't what'd kill it, it'd be 'heritage concerns'

Jack Noble

Aard wrote: »

Any mention of the "people mover" from O'Connor?

Not that I heard. First I knew about it was when Tom Manning handed me the lovely map after the meeting was over. Myself and another chap went WTF? around the same time.

Pete_Cavan

monument wrote: »

That that public event they were claiming 25 mins to DUB and 35mins to Swords. Seems optimistic to me.

But given. That they bypass very congested streets, I can see how they could get to the city centre quicker than buses from DCU or Ballymun.

From where though, Broombridge? Given the RPA themselves say it will take 24 minutes to get from Broombridge to St. Stephen’s Green, a 50 minute journey time from Dublin Airport to SSG is not going to take too many people from the existing bus services.

cgcsb

monument wrote: »

That that public event they were claiming 25 mins to DUB and 35mins to Swords. Seems optimistic to me.

That is simply not possible, a mere lie spouted to make this seem like less of a botched job. The RPA themselves admit that the journey time on BXD from Broombridge to SSG will take 25mins. Are they seriously suggesting that a tram from Broombridge will DUB takes 0 minutes? Have they learned how to bend space and time?

Jack Noble

Another point I made to ROC and others after the meeting was that Irish sovereign debt costs us less now than it did when they were planning Metro North and Dart Underground PPPs back during the C***c T***r.

Yesterday the NTMA sold €4billion in 30-year bonds at a yield of just under 2.1%. They only planned to sell €2bn but such was the demand they doubled up. This was the first time the NTMA had gone for 30-year debt. Last year they dipped their toes in the longer-term market with 15-year bonds.

What could you fund with €4bn of 30-year bonds yielding 2.1%? Just wondrin...

monument

cgcsb wrote: »

That is simply not possible, a mere lie spouted to make this seem like less of a botched job. The RPA themselves admit that the journey time on BXD from Broombridge to SSG will take 25mins. Are they seriously suggesting that a tram from Broombridge will DUB takes 0 minutes? Have they learned how to bend space and time?

City centre could refer to the northside.

After all the slowest part of BXD per km will likely be the river to ST Green.

Jack Noble

monument wrote: »

City centre could refer to the northside.

I'm sure he said SSG at the meeting. 30 mins to DUB and 35 mins to Swords.

If I remember correctly, with Metro it's 20 mins DUB to SSG and 25 mins to Swords.

D.L.R.

This "study" is starting to resemble two bald men fighting over a comb.

Our only hope for a metro system is for Germany to buy Ireland.

I for one would welcome our new teutonic overlords...

Grandeeod

Idbatterim wrote: »

a sign of the times like what?]

It was a Fianna Fail idea.

That's how it works in Ireland.

Grandeeod

D.L.R. wrote: »

This "study" is starting to resemble two bald men fighting over a comb.

Our only hope for a metro system is for Germany to buy Ireland.

I for one would welcome our new teutonic overlords...

Its a joke. Its a fudge. Its political granstanding. If I live long enough I'll be laughing at my grandchildren making submissions to something similar.

Grandeeod

Jack Noble wrote: »

2. Given that the DTO in Platform for Change recommended Metro for the Swords-Airport-City line over Luas because light rail lacked the capacity to meet forecast demand on the route and this was confirmed during the Metro North planning stages, how come Luas now can meet demand, given that the population numbers and employment numbers in the GDA have passed the DTO's predictions, despite the economic crisis post-2008?

That's the 64 million dollar question, isn't it?

But I think you know the answer.