100 Bets to Broke Hennessy to Cheltenham

longshotvalue

Sandown 2:00

I’ve a sneaky feeling that Mercoeur hasn’t showed his full hand yet. He came back after a break to be second lately and he may well be better on good ground as his best performance yet on 2nd on good ground to a very decent yardstick. First time blinkers as well here all points to today being the day, and he is in here of a very light weight. 14/1 with Ladbrokes looks value.

1 Point win 14/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

Sandown 4:25

Clondaw Kaempfer came into form fairly suddenly at the end of last year of a couple of pounds higher than this mark and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he did the same again here in a similar race. The stable has started to find a bit of form (not shooting the lights out but an improvement all the same). 33/1 is too big to ignore.

1 Point EW 33/1 365/888/32red

Lt J.R. Bell

Giving Gods Own another chance

longshotvalue

Irish Handicaps aren't really my thing, in fact Irish Racing in general is a losing proposition, but it would be no fun to not put anything up so here goes.

4:55

Indian Icon had his first decent run in a while last time out and finished a decent 7th in a similar race to this but on soft ground which won’t have suited him judging by his best form as a 4yo. The stable are getting into form as well and if he can improve on his 7th last time he looks very decent value off a lower mark on decent ground with 5 places EW.

1 Point EW 33/1 PaddyPower 5 places

5:30

This is a strange race with all sorts of out of form and horses that won’t be suited by the ground etc. The favourite is purely a Cheltenham horse for me and I’m going to go down the betting for a bit of value in Flemenstar. His front running style may be suited to this race and if he is fitter than his last run , which was his first for a long time I would expect him to be competitive here. I had a price in my head of 14/1 or bigger so the 20/1 with boyles is well worth the risk.

1 Point win 20/1 Boyles

6:40

Opposing Don Poli feels like setting fire to money but he is very short here and I strongly feel that Wounded Warrior is the 2nd best horse in this race over this trip. He let Don Poli away from him in the RSA about 3 out but really finished the race well and his overall form looks to me to be stronger than the other 2 for this race. 12/1 looks a big price In case anything happens the fav here.

1 Point win Wounded Warrior 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue

6:05 Punchestown

There isn’t a lot between most of these that ran in the Festival bumper apart from Modus and its clear to me that the value might be Bay of Freedom at the prices. 66 or 50/1 is too big for a couple of lengths difference between this and many of the others . He looks an EW bet worth chancing and I’ll go with the 50/1 and 4 places on paddy power for a small bet.

1 Point ew 50/1 Paddy Power 50/1 4 Places

longshotvalue

6:40 Punchestown

This race looks ideal for You must Know Me , he had had a very light season and came good at this time last year with a very good run in the Topham at Aintree. For some reason he is 4lbs lower here after mostly very decent runs since and I don’t think he will be far away here. He looks more of an 8/1 shot to me and 12/1 is great value

2 Point win 12/1 Various

longshotvalue

4:15 Punchestown

Dick Dundee ran a great race in the best 2 mile handicap of the year at Cheltenham and having just faded out of it in the end he may be suited to this race on slightly better ground with an easier finish. He is no 25/1 shot given he is a couple of pounds down and with a decent 5lbs claimer on this time. He possibly went after the winner a bit early that time and with a bit more restraint this time he should be in the firing line

1 Point EW 25/1 Bet365/Stan James

5:30 Punchestown

This race is littered with possible non stayers and if Thousand Stars is fitter this time after his very good return last time out he is no 14/1 shot. Not much explanation needed he is well capable of outrunning 14/1.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

6:05 Punchestown

Black Benny was poor enough last time after a break, but has been an improving chaser of late. He has a very attractive hurdles mark in comparison and has in the past a few very decent hurdles runs of higher marks that this. He has been given a small break again here and of a career low mark he should be able to get involved in this at a huge 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 Lads/Stan James

3:40 Punchestown

Battling Boru has been very consistent in this type of race for a while now and although this is a step down in trip it may suit judging by his last run. He looks to have a very high chance of placing of a decent mark with a 5lbs claimer on today at a huge 33/1 with 5 places .

1 Point ew 33/1 5 places Bet365

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

3:40 Punchestown

Battling Boru has been very consistent in this type of race for a while now and although this is a step down in trip it may suit judging by his last run. He looks to have a very high chance of placing of a decent mark with a 5lbs claimer on today at a huge 33/1 with 5 places .

1 Point ew 33/1 5 places Bet365

nice start placed 5th at 33/1

Polo_Mint

aidankkk wrote: »

nice start placed 5th at 33/1

Good Call

I put €5 EW on all your horse listed with PP

I got this
You benefited from our Extra Places bonus to the value of €46.25

I didnt notice it when I placed the bet

Anyways thanks for the tip and hopefully something comes with the rest

longshotvalue

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

longshotvalue

7:45 Punchestown

I can’t understand how Noble Prince is 20/1 in this hunter chase. I realise he is an unlikely winner as the fav really is in the form of his life but there won’t be much between him and the likes of Pearlysteps and Vital Plot who are both shorter in the market. He used to like decent ground and was the highest rated of these. I recon he is about evens to place here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Bet365 & Boyles

rossom

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

Agree with this one but fancy Mr Fiftyone more. Found things happening too quickly in the Grand Annual and his jumping just didn't hold up at that pace. Have backed BC as well

BQQ

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

He's been wrong several times this week already.
Paul Townend would probably have been let ride Rebecca curtis' one if this didn't have a good chance.
Definitely looks value

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

:D:D:D:D

magicmoves

aidankkk wrote: »

:D:D:D:D

Cheers for the tip

hurleronditch

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

Some man Aidan!! Had Mr Fiftyone as the second leg of a big double based on Rossoms tip but did BC as an EW single saver and very glad I did. Great picking once more

rossom

Nice one mate. Had a saver on him but wish he did that at Chelt as he would have won me 5k had he won the Grand Annual!

bladespin

Awresum - that is all!

madmoose

Get in aid.

gavindublin

That's the weekend sorted!

Lt J.R. Bell

Paul Townend is some jockey (no **** Sherlock) he is not even 30 yet. Hope when he's free, he continues going over to Britian. According to At The Races, even though he has ridden 10 less than Mccoy, for Curtis, he has 3 more winners in the last year . Lol

Oh, for once, I decided not to ignore your tips. I even accidentially went to win as oppose each way.Brilliant.

Covers the crazy prices for train tickets, since buses are on strike, and have change for sweets. Lovely stuff

minibear

aidankkk wrote: »

4:20 Punchestown

I’m fairly confident that Blood Cotil is well handicapped here. He should be better over this trip than the 2 miles he has been running well at this year, and his form is littered with very high standard novice form. Ruby must think the top weight is some horse to be able to give the selection 10 lbs but I’m hopeful he is wrong here. He was backed into an outrageous price in the Grand Annual, but hit a fence early and never recovered, so he must be doing something right at home. 14/1 looks huge even in this race.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

Thanks Aidan!

Bangor Billy

Cheers Aidan. Set me up for a nice profitable evening at God's own racecourse,

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

7:45 Punchestown

I can’t understand how Noble Prince is 20/1 in this hunter chase. I realise he is an unlikely winner as the fav really is in the form of his life but there won’t be much between him and the likes of Pearlysteps and Vital Plot who are both shorter in the market. He used to like decent ground and was the highest rated of these. I recon he is about evens to place here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Bet365 & Boyles

You was unlucky with this fella going down a length but ew money top tipping again different gravy.

Thoughts for tomorrow?

longshotvalue

Punchestown 3:10

Cross Appeal is one I’ve tried before without success but he appeals here at a big price on his first run back from a break. He actually has a very decent record fresh and a couple of his last few runs give him a definite chance here of this mark. I’ll go for the extra place here with bet365 as 25/1 with those terms looks the best value


1 Point EW 25/1 Bet365 5 places

longshotvalue

Punchestown 3:50

Analifet looks a bit underestimated here in the w/o Annie market. She is an improving horse with 2 very good runs lately. I think there is nothing between her and Katie T, but the selection is 7/2 and Katie T is odds on. I would have them more or less the same so that kind of margin can’t be ignored. I also think coming second may suite her rather than actually having to try and get her head in front


2 Points Win 7/2 W/O Annie Power Betfair/Will Hill

longshotvalue

Punchestown 5:00

Aupcharlie has flattered to deceive a few times as he generally travels well in his races. I think he needs this step up in trip and in fact had some very decent novice performance’s over this trip. He is down to a workable mark with a 5lbs claimer on today and that should bring him right into the action here. 25/1 looks a bit generous because he isn’t the stable choice but that wouldn’t really effect his chances much as both have solid chances in my mind.


1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Punchestown 3:50

Analifet looks a bit underestimated here in the w/o Annie market. She is an improving horse with 2 very good runs lately. I think there is nothing between her and Katie T, but the selection is 7/2 and Katie T is odds on. I would have them more or less the same so that kind of margin can’t be ignored. I also think coming second may suite her rather than actually having to try and get her head in front


2 Points Win 7/2 W/O Annie Power Betfair/Will Hill

lovely stuff, that was a silly price... Won the other race handily:D

langer91

aidankkk wrote: »

lovely stuff, that was a silly price... Won the other race handily:D

As always Aidan, unbelievable picking cheers mate.

longshotvalue

This is the final bet on this tread, and ill have the figures later on this week. Perhaps its right to finish on an old fav of mine.

Kempton 3:10

Vino Greigo has been one I’ve been expecting to do something this year but luckily I’ve steered clear most of the time as he hasn’t really done anything of note since a half reasonable seasonal opener. I think today’s race may suit him and the drop in class is badly needed. One of my other cliff horses Champion Court could be dangerous but the step up in trip hasn’t worked in the past. 11/1 about Vino looks worth a bet in this race, as although he stopped last time out in a better race he did travel well for a lot of the way and may be able to extend that today.


1 Point win 11/1 Generally.

3:45 Kempton

A Cor Et A Cri has French form that would make this race of this mark a complete forgone conclusion. He was 4th behind Aux Ptits Soins & Arbre De Vie. The step up in trip will more than likely suit and basically I’m just going to take a gamble that he will be backed today and if so the current 10/1 will look value. He was very poor on his British debut, but it may be significant that he hasn’t been put away for the season yet.


1 Point win 10/1 Various