Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

serfboard

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Or run for the presidency in 2018...

That's a good one! I hadn't thought of that.

Enda will be 67 in 2018, a perfect age you might think for the presidency - Michael D will be 77 - too old IMO (even though Eamonn De Valera was only elected to the presidency for the first time at that age - and retired from the presidency aged 90 :eek:)

Enda would then leave Leo and Simon to fight it out for the FG Leadership - the first salvo of which Leo fired in his recent Miriam O'Callagahan interview ("I don't want to be in politics after age 51"). The only other contender would be Richard Bruton who would be 65 in 2018 and would look too old compared to the other "Young Turks".

Loafing Oaf

serfboard wrote: »

That's a good one! I hadn't thought of that.

Enda will be 67 in 2018, a perfect age you might think for the presidency - Michael D will be 77 - too old IMO (even though Eamonn De Valera was only elected to the presidency for the first time at that age - and retired from the presidency aged 90 :eek:)

Enda would then leave Leo and Simon to fight it out for the FG Leadership - the first salvo of which Leo fired in his recent Miriam O'Callagahan interview ("I don't want to be in politics after age 51"). The only other contender would be Richard Bruton who would be 65 in 2018 and would look too old compared to the other "Young Turks".

Michael D has ruled out a second term.

Frances Fitzgerald might have an outside shot at succeeding Enda, she is joint third favourite with PP and I read somewhere that she is Enda's anointed one, but she would also be perceived as over the hill.

I'd say Enda has mulled a presidential bid but the choreography would be tricky. Ideally of course he would make the announcement as a bolt from the blue six months before the election and resign immediately as Taoiseach and FG leader but politicians rarely get to manage things so neatly these days...

Idbatterim

If FF and FG refuse to go into power together (or more specifically if Kenny and Martin refuse) then it is hard to see how a stable government will be formed on the right

I don't want to drag this thread of topic, but neither FF or FG are right wing, they are both centre, with FF leaning slightly left (a be everything to everyone party, why offend anyone) take a look at the tories manifesto in the uk, they wouldn't even be considered far right, actually sensible is how tens of millions would describe their policies, myself included...

touts

serfboard wrote: »

That's a good one! I hadn't thought of that.

Enda will be 67 in 2018, a perfect age you might think for the presidency - Michael D will be 77 - too old IMO (even though Eamonn De Valera was only elected to the presidency for the first time at that age - and retired from the presidency aged 90 :eek:)

Enda would then leave Leo and Simon to fight it out for the FG Leadership - the first salvo of which Leo fired in his recent Miriam O'Callagahan interview ("I don't want to be in politics after age 51"). The only other contender would be Richard Bruton who would be 65 in 2018 and would look too old compared to the other "Young Turks".

Enda has a major PR job ahead of him to stand any chance of winning a presidential election. Right now the only way he'll win is if it is a two way fight between himself and Cowen. Anyway Fine Gael & DOB haven't invested so much time and effort over the 18 months in building John Bruton as an elder statesman to let Enda ruin it all by looking for the nomination.

touts

Idbatterim wrote: »

I don't want to drag this thread of topic, but neither FF or FG are right wing, they are both centre, with FF leaning slightly left (a be everything to everyone party, why offend anyone) take a look at the tories manifesto in the uk, they wouldn't even be considered far right, actually sensible is how tens of millions would describe their policies, myself included...

Well they are Right in terms of Irish politics. But I'd agree with you that they are far to the left of the Tories etc. That is probably the niche the Rebooters are targeting.

conorh91

Idbatterim wrote: »

I don't want to drag this thread of topic, but neither FF or FG are right wing, they are both centre, with FF leaning slightly left (a be everything to everyone party, why offend anyone) take a look at the tories manifesto in the uk, they wouldn't even be considered far right, actually sensible is how tens of millions would describe their policies, myself included...

This is a country where two out of every five adults is either a public servant, a pensioner, or on the live register, i.e. substantially dependent on the State for their income. Even allowing for a lot of nurse-Garda marriages, that's easily above 50% of households relying heavily on State income.

No Government can afford to be right-wing.

Centre-right would be optimistic. Very optimistic.

Slydice

Results of a Paddy Power/Red C poll between Monday and Wednesday this week released today: http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0313/686812-political-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Fine Gael|Ind./Others|Sinn Fein|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Poll|26|27|21|17|9


So FG/FF/Lab have 52%. Again, no need for them to wrangle an independent or two. Now, they are comfortably the majority.

Looks like they've shored up their support since last month:


Paddy Power odds have changed. Top is now FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 7/4
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 15/8
FF/SF 13/2

Interesting they're sayin it's gonna be FG/FF. I'd still say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab. Polls and odds over the coming months might point in a more clear direction though.

Godge

Slydice wrote: »

Results of a Paddy Power/Red C poll between Monday and Wednesday this week released today: http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0313/686812-political-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Fine Gael|Ind./Others|Sinn Fein|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Poll|26|27|21|17|9


So FG/FF/Lab have 52%. Again, no need for them to wrangle an independent or two. Now, they are comfortably the majority.

Looks like they've shored up their support since last month:


Paddy Power odds have changed. Top is now FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 7/4
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 15/8
FF/SF 13/2

Interesting they're sayin it's gonna be FG/FF. I'd still say that'll be a FG/FF/Lab. Polls and odds over the coming months might point in a more clear direction though.

FG/Lab/Any other @ 8/1 is the value bet. Any other could be Ind, FF, Green, Renua or some other grouping.

joe912

Godge wrote: »

FG/Lab/Any other @ 8/1 is the value bet. Any other could be Ind, FF, Green, Renua or some other grouping.

renua you are really on top of your game there. how would a party that will have no seats affect the next government f.f/f.g

joe912

sinn fein have no intention of being part of the next government. they will be hoping for a f.g/f.f coalition. this will inevitably lose both these parties followers. people will then see 2 options f.f/f.g or s.f

Godge

conorh91 wrote: »

This is a country where two out of every five adults is either a public servant, a pensioner, or on the live register, i.e. substantially dependent on the State for their income. Even allowing for a lot of nurse-Garda marriages, that's easily above 50% of households relying heavily on State income.

No Government can afford to be right-wing.

Centre-right would be optimistic. Very optimistic.

If you add in those who don't pay any income tax, the percentage of those not contributing to the State must be around 60%.

conorh91

Godge wrote: »

If you add in those who don't pay any income tax, the percentage of those not contributing to the State must be around 60%.

Nonsense. Even people on minimum wage pay income tax and USC.

There is nothing as bad as being dismissive of low paid workers. They pay their share when they could just as easily live on the dole. I know because I've been one of them, as well as self-employed, making a net contribution based on what is possibly affordable. I can assure you that anyone in that position would prefer not to be bunched in with those who earn far more than hard working low-earners in the private sector who make no contribution to anything.

FreudianSlippers

January 2015 live register figures (seasonally adjusted) shows 360,200 people (10.5%). In 2013 it was revealed that 14.28% of people on the live register have never paid any tax. That's 51,437 people who have never paid any income tax or about 1.5% on top of the 50% figure.

Not as massive as Godge estimated, but in fairness, not a small number either.

Quin_Dub

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

January 2015 live register figures (seasonally adjusted) shows 360,200 people (10.5%). In 2013 it was revealed that 14.28% of people on the live register have never paid any tax. That's 51,437 people who have never paid any income tax or about 1.5% on top of the 50% figure.

Not as massive as Godge estimated, but in fairness, not a small number either.

It would be interesting to see an age profile of that 51k - How many are recent School/College leavers that haven't yet found work and how many are truly "dole lifers"..

Suspect a fairly large number are in the former category , but any number in the latter category is unacceptable..

Godge

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

January 2015 live register figures (seasonally adjusted) shows 360,200 people (10.5%). In 2013 it was revealed that 14.28% of people on the live register have never paid any tax. That's 51,437 people who have never paid any income tax or about 1.5% on top of the 50% figure.

Not as massive as Godge estimated, but in fairness, not a small number either.

That is a shocking number who have never paid income tax. I was only thinking about those that aren't currently paying income tax which is an even bigger number as some of them will have paid it in the past or will pay it in the future.

FreudianSlippers

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It would be interesting to see an age profile of that 51k - How many are recent School/College leavers that haven't yet found work and how many are truly "dole lifers"..

Suspect a fairly large number are in the former category , but any number in the latter category is unacceptable..

It would be interesting, but I think one would be disappointed in the results (IMHO). I wonder if the live register keeps/publishes that info vis-a-vis dole demographics?

Godge wrote: »

That is a shocking number who have never paid income tax. I was only thinking about those that aren't currently paying income tax which is an even bigger number as some of them will have paid it in the past or will pay it in the future.

It is, which makes your 60% figure accurate.

Slydice

After 1 month, we have the Results of a Millward Brown poll poll over a ten-day period up to last Thursday released today: http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0404/692110-sf-and-independents-drop-in-support-in-new-poll/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Fine Gael|Sinn Fein|Ind./Others|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Poll|25|24|23|19|8


So FG/FF/Lab have 52% again. Still no need for them to wrangle an independent or two. Still the comfortable majority.

The support looks to have stabilised since last month:


Paddy Power odds have strengthened. The Top is still FG/FF with FG/FF/Any other party(s) now in second:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591647
The favourites are:
FG/FF 6/4
FG/FF/Any other party(s) 5/2
FG/Lab 4/1

They're after strenghtening the FG/FF odds. Interesting that FF/FG is getting a stronger prospect. Still FG/FF/Lab is my guess (but not as strong). FF/FG would be a much stronger banker government. Guess we'll see over the coming months.

Slydice

I must be going blind.

Paddy Power literarily list FF/FG/Lab at 8/1 now right beside FF/FG/Renua at 8/1. They are the 5th and 6th highest odds.

That's why they see FG/FF/Any other party(s) at 5/2. Renua or Labour or [Selection of Independents] are 3 options open for FF/FG and so make FG/FF/Any other party(s) such a high probability.

Godge

Slydice wrote: »

I must be going blind.

Paddy Power literarily list FF/FG/Lab at 8/1 now right beside FF/FG/Renua at 8/1. They are the 5th and 6th highest odds.

That's why they see FG/FF/Any other party(s) at 5/2. Renua or Labour or [Selection of Independents] are 3 options open for FF/FG and so make FG/FF/Any other party(s) such a high probability.

I cannot see FG giving FF a lifeline. Neither can I see FG going in with SF.

FG/Lab/Other or FG/Lab are the most likely outcomes at this stage.

Paddy Power don't list FG/Lab/Other instead putting FG/Lab/Renua at 20/1 and FG/Lab/Green also at 20/1. Smaller bets on those with a larger bet on FG/Lab at 4/1 would be my strategy to end up winning money.

Loafing Oaf

Godge wrote: »

I cannot see FG giving FF a lifeline. Neither can I see FG going in with SF.

FG/Lab/Other or FG/Lab are the most likely outcomes at this stage.

.

Well FG wont't be forming a coalition with FG to throw them a bone, they'll only do it if it's the only feasible government (and that's assuming FF are willing partners, a very big assumption given MM's statements on this subject). What options do you see if FG/Lab don't have the numbers, even with the support of 'others'?

Godge

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well FG wont't be forming a coalition with FG to throw them a bone, they'll only do it if it's the only feasible government (and that's assuming FF are willing partners, a very big assumption given MM's statements on this subject). What options do you see if FG/Lab don't have the numbers, even with the support of 'others'?

I really can't see how FG/Lab/Green/Renua/Ross will fall short. All of them are potential coalition partners.

If that combination fall short, then FF/SF/Lab/Renua must have the numbers.

FG will go into opposition rather than go into government with SF or FF.

Loafing Oaf

Godge wrote: »

I really can't see how FG/Lab/Green/Renua/Ross will fall short. All of them are potential coalition partners.

If that combination fall short, then FF/SF/Lab/Renua must have the numbers.

FG will go into opposition rather than go into government with SF or FF.

Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 40, Labour Party 6, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31.

Here's Adrian Kavanagh's seat breakdown based on the latest Sindo opinion poll. If that's anywhere close to the mark FG/Lab/Other must be a non-starter no?

FF/SF/Lab is certainly a runner numbers-wise, but Martin has seemingly ruled out a deal with SF as categorically as one with FG, and in this scenario FF would be junior partner....

If FF, FG and SF are all refusing to coalesce with either of the other two, on whom does the onus fall to back down?

Quin_Dub

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Fianna Fail 34, Fine Gael 46, Sinn Fein 40, Labour Party 6, Green Party 1, Independents and Others 31.

Here's Adrian Kavanagh's seat breakdown based on the latest Sindo opinion poll. If that's anywhere close to the mark FG/Lab/Other must be a non-starter no?

FF/SF/Lab is certainly a runner numbers-wise, but Martin has seemingly ruled out a deal with SF as categorically as one with FG, and in this scenario FF would be junior partner....

If FF, FG and SF are all refusing to coalesce with either of the other two, on whom does the onus fall to back down?

I really don't understand how he keeps giving SF the level of seats he does..

Nothing in there history suggests that ~25% in opinion polls will convert to 40 seats..

At those kinds of levels they are far far closer to 30 than 40...

blackwhite

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I really don't understand how he keeps giving SF the level of seats he does..

Nothing in there history suggests that ~25% in opinion polls will convert to 40 seats..

At those kinds of levels they are far far closer to 30 than 40...

It looks like he's just applying the results that other parties (i.e. FF/FG) have gotten with that share of the vote in the past.
He certainly seems to be ignoring SF's poor record of gaining transfers (which, TBF, one could argue may not be as big a factor this time around).
He also appears to be (more damning of his methodology to my mind), ignoring that SF are highly unlikely to be running more than one candidate in a lot of constituencies.
Whilst we might talk about SF being "transfer-toxic," the bigger obstacle to SF converting their eventual share of the vote (whatever that may be) into seats will be a lack of candidates in certain areas.

touts

There isn't a hope in hell that Sinn Fein will go onto government after the next election. They are playing a long game towards being the dominant political party on the whole island. Integral to that is a term or two as opposition complaining about everything the government does.

serfboard

touts wrote: »

There isn't a hope in hell that Sinn Fein will go onto government after the next election. They are playing a long game towards being the dominant political party on the whole island. Integral to that is a term or two as opposition complaining about everything the government does.

While I understand why you're saying what you're saying (Labour could have been very successful in the next GE if they had stayed out of government this time), and it is understandable that parties try to "grow their market share", at the end of the day, politics is all about a) doing things and b) power and you can't do things without having power.

I also think there is the added minor consideration for Sinn Féin of being in government, north and south, 100 years after the Easter Rising and the whole emotional appeal of that.

I personally think they wil go into power (if they can) and their electorate will become just as disillusioned with them as Labour's electorate are now, when Sinn Féin discover that there is not an infinite pot of money to be thrown around the place, notwithstanding the improving economic situation. I also think that, if they do go into power, within a few days the American MNCs will sit down with them and threaten to take tens of thousands of jobs out of the economy if they do anything too radical.

Slydice

Another month on, we have the Results of a RED C poll:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0530/704936-poll-indicates-rise-in-government-support/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Fine Gael|Ind./Others|Sinn Fein|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Poll|28|22|21|19|10


FG/FF/Lab now have 57%. Wow! Definite majority. Almost looking like Labour could be turfed out.

It also says

Within that the Green party are on 3% and Renua on 1%

So the support chart looks really strong now:


Paddy Power ... have stopped doing odds on the Government after the next election. They have favourites for Taoiseach:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591648
The favourites are:
Enda Kenny 4/11
Micheal Martin 9/2
Gerry Adams 9/1

Looks like their money is on FG and FF.

This poll has a big jump in support and I'll be interested to see where it goes from here. Green Party or Renua might be contenders for Labours place if FG or FF get much stronger.

omicron

Next government after election odds are still here.

FG/FF 11/2
FG/FF/Any other 7/2
FG/Lab 7/2

Slydice

omicron wrote: »

Next government after election odds are still here.

FG/FF 11/2
FG/FF/Any other 7/2
FG/Lab 7/2

Again I must be going blind. I swear I triple checked :rolleyes:

Thanks!

edit to update the Paddypower bit on FG/FF/Lab specific odds:
Paddy Power literarily list FF/FG/Lab at 8/1 now right beside FF/FG/Renua at 9/1. They are now 4th and 5th highest odds.

FG/FF/Any other party(s) at has weakened to from 5/2 to 7/2. Seems like they are indicating a FG/FF only government is a stronger possibility.

FreudianSlippers

Slydice wrote: »

Another month on, we have the Results of a RED C poll:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0530/704936-poll-indicates-rise-in-government-support/

The results are:
Paper(Poll)/Party|Fine Gael|Ind./Others|Sinn Fein|Fianna Fáil|Labour
Poll|28|22|21|19|10


FG/FF/Lab now have 57%. Wow! Definite majority. Almost looking like Labour could be turfed out.

It also says

So the support chart looks really strong now:


Paddy Power ... have stopped doing odds on the Government after the next election. They have favourites for Taoiseach:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/irish-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=591648
The favourites are:
Enda Kenny 4/11
Micheal Martin 9/2
Gerry Adams 9/1

Looks like their money is on FG and FF.

This poll has a big jump in support and I'll be interested to see where it goes from here. Green Party or Renua might be contenders for Labours place if FG or FF get much stronger.

FF would need to close the gap on SF to turf our Labour I'd think.