Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

Baggy Trousers · 18-02-2015 10:43pm

For Reals wrote: »

The only reason for Kenny making a mountain out of a molehill as regards the Burton/Murphy Jobstown protest was to either damage Murphy, (which will backfire) and/or damage Burton, (which it has). Keep in mind, she made no complaint.

I wondered was there some machievillian cunning involved in the Murphy arrest on behalf of people who did not like the sympathy Joan got.
Especially the manner of the arrest guaranteed to get publicity.

Look at the suspects in Joan's 4 seat constituency;

Leo Varadkar - needs a great election in 2016 to threaten FG leadership.
Joe Higgins - "Man of the people"; not always guaranteed a seat. Ally of Murphy.
Ruth Coppinger - Elected after McNulty (ex-Labour) resigned. Not a fan of the Gardaí though.
Brian Lenihan (RIP) also topped the poll for years in Dublin West so FF could be looking to return a seat here in David McGuinness. They need to improve their Dublin showing bigtime in 2016 to get any credibility.

Methinks the vultures are circling on all Labour seats, Joan's included.

Who knows....Joan is very quiet on it in any case.

Cui bono.

Sand · 19-02-2015 12:48am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Just because Crieghton left FG over the abortion issue and she's starting a new party doesn't mean that the new party is going to be a "pro-lifer" vehicle.

They've made it clear that any TDs they have will have a free hand in voting on any abortion legislation and the other main person in the startup, Eddie Hobbs is on the record as being pro-choice.

No, because its a Creighton vehicle its going to be a "pro-lifer" vehicle. If Creighton has no other USP to differentiate herself from FG (and she doesn't) then I can only see it attracting only marginal support from the Opus Dei crowd and maybe a few Freeman of the land cranks. People who agree with the FG/Labour government record will vote for FG and to a certain extent Labour, not Creighton. People who don't agree with their record aren't going to vote for Creighton when she happily voted along with the government on every single measure those voters presumably disagree with.

Even if there was some brave new manifesto and Creighton was offering something different, trying to launch 60 candidates simultaneously with practically no infrastructure and no support base other than flash mobs is at best...mistaken. They need to set modest, achievable targets and succeed at them. Set more targets and then succeed at them. Build success upon success - they cannot afford to fail right out of the starting blocks. FF can fail. FG can fail. SF can fail. Even Labour can fail. Some small and new party fails? They disappear.

Going for a grand gesture of running candidates in every constituency pretty much guarantees failure at a time when they can least afford it. Even if Creighton's state Catholicism wasn't objectionable to anyone with republican inclinations, her judgement is clearly flawed. Not inspiring leadership material.

Muahahaha · 19-02-2015 2:55am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Just because Crieghton left FG over the abortion issue and she's starting a new party doesn't mean that the new party is going to be a "pro-lifer" vehicle.

They've made it clear that any TDs they have will have a free hand in voting on any abortion legislation and the other main person in the startup, Eddie Hobbs is on the record as being pro-choice.

Exactly, Lucinda might be the leader but despite her pro-life stance she's not totally stupid- notice her lack of presence last week when fatal fetal abnormalities debate was ongoing, she knows a fools errand when she sees one. She was absent from any meaningful debate on the issue. Match that with her recent volte-face and support for SSM and it's pretty obvious that she is conceding some of her core beliefs because getting into power is more important. Her aim now is to get 8-12 TD's elected, if she can achieve that then she will be seen as a preferential partner in government by FF, FG and Labour thus ensuring that the next government almost certainly willl not have Sinn Fein within it, simply on the basis that the established parties would much prefer do business with a party that is largely like them too. Creighton's party has the potential to fill that vacumn that currently exists a lot better than Sinn Fein do, the Shinners might be up to 26% now but they're not great on transfers whereas if Creighton can put up a mix of established names and young bloods promising the reform that FF/FG.Lab refuse to deliver then Kenny, Martin and Burton will be eating out of her hands post election rather than allowing anything involving Sinn Fein form IMO.

Sand · 19-02-2015 11:15pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

if Creighton can put up a mix of established names and young bloods promising the reform that FF/FG.Lab refuse to deliver then Kenny, Martin and Burton will be eating out of her hands post election rather than allowing anything involving Sinn Fein form IMO.

Thats a contradictory set of ambitions: promising the reform that FF/FG.Lab refuse to deliver, yet with the gameplan of doing a deal with FF/FG.Lab where they will be the minority party with nothing better on offer.

I think FF/FG.Lab will have the whip hand in those negotiations, so anyone voting for Creighton expecting change will be disappointed.

Muahahaha · 20-02-2015 2:27am

For sure a party run by Creighton going into govt with FG/FF and Lab wont get everything it wants but history has shown us that small parties often exercise power far beyond their actual number of Dail seats, the PDs were a good example of this, they held the Minister for Finance, Justice and Tanaiste positions for many years in govt which gave them a lot more power than what their vote totals would have suggessted.

Although Enda is going around telling everyone he wants FG-Lab to be returned deep down he knows full well that can't happen. Lucinda having enough seats to make up for FG-Lab losses would be an attractive proposition to Kenny IMO, she is FG stock and a known quantity and his government would be a lot more stable with her and Lab than it would be with FG going into power with FF or SF.

the groutch · 20-02-2015 12:14pm

think people are getting ahead of themselves, she doesn't even have a name for the "party" yet, and people are already talking about getting up to 12 seats and being the kingmaker in forming the next government.

Quin_Dub · 20-02-2015 12:25pm

the groutch wrote: »

think people are getting ahead of themselves, she doesn't even have a name for the "party" yet, and people are already talking about getting up to 12 seats and being the kingmaker in forming the next government.

Exactly... I can't see them getting much beyond 5-6 seats.. The few "faces" they have will get elected , but not much beyond that..

Those 5 or 6 seats might still be useful to someone , but not enough to get them a major ministry or anything..

FreudianSlippers · 20-02-2015 12:26pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Exactly... I can't see them getting much beyond 5-6 seats.. The few "faces" they have will get elected , but not much beyond that..

Those 5 or 6 seats might still be useful to someone , but not enough to get them a major ministry or anything..

I'd be surprised if the party that shall not be named (cuz there is no name... cuz that there thinkin' is hard work ya'll) gets 5 seats.

Quin_Dub · 20-02-2015 12:34pm

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'd be surprised if the party that shall not be named (cuz there is no name... cuz that there thinkin' is hard work ya'll) gets 5 seats.

Don't disagree for the most part - All depends on how many "faces" they sign up.. Lucinda and Eddie will gets seats plus 2 or 3 other sitting TD's that might scrape through..

Godge · 20-02-2015 12:36pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

For sure a party run by Creighton going into govt with FG/FF and Lab wont get everything it wants but history has shown us that small parties often exercise power far beyond their actual number of Dail seats, the PDs were a good example of this, they held the Minister for Finance, Justice and Tanaiste positions for many years in govt which gave them a lot more power than what their vote totals would have suggessted.

Although Enda is going around telling everyone he wants FG-Lab to be returned deep down he knows full well that can't happen. Lucinda having enough seats to make up for FG-Lab losses would be an attractive proposition to Kenny IMO, she is FG stock and a known quantity and his government would be a lot more stable with her and Lab than it would be with FG going into power with FF or SF.

FG will get over 30% of the vote in the next election. Depending on how fractured the rest of the vote is and transfers that could give them over 60 seats. They got 76 seats with 36% last time out, 60 seats with 30% is not out of the question.

The question is whether Labour and some other group of sensible independents get enough seats for a majority. In 2007 Labour got 20 seats with 10.8% of the vote, they are not far off that level now.

5 seats for Lucinda could be enough to get here into government with FG/Labour. In fact, possibly the best way of keeping her out would be to vote FG in order to ensure that they don't need her.

The real thing FG/Labour have going for them is the failure of FF to come back strongly. There are too many people who won't want SF in government and FG/Labour is the only real alternative at the moment.

Quin_Dub · 20-02-2015 12:47pm

Godge wrote: »

FG will get over 30% of the vote in the next election. Depending on how fractured the rest of the vote is and transfers that could give them over 60 seats. They got 76 seats with 36% last time out, 60 seats with 30% is not out of the question.

The question is whether Labour and some other group of sensible independents get enough seats for a majority. In 2007 Labour got 20 seats with 10.8% of the vote, they are not far off that level now.

5 seats for Lucinda could be enough to get here into government with FG/Labour. In fact, possibly the best way of keeping her out would be to vote FG in order to ensure that they don't need her.

The real thing FG/Labour have going for them is the failure of FF to come back strongly. There are too many people who won't want SF in government and FG/Labour is the only real alternative at the moment.

Not sure about 60 seats , but FG will be as large and most likely larger than SF/FF combined (I see them getting about 50 between them)

I can't see how SF would break 30 seats with their current level of support. Nor do I see how/where SF would get the additional support it would need to be in a realistic position to form a government.

If SF don't have the 40%+ Opinion poll support they need today, they are not going to have it in 12 months time..

There are 30% undecided out there along with a large chunk of those that say "Independent" - I don't see a pathway for SF to win those voters over..

They may gather up/consolidate some of the Hard Left vote , but that's a zero-sum activity in terms of weakening FG/Lab

Loafing Oaf · 22-02-2015 12:48am

Godge wrote: »

FG will get over 30% of the vote in the next election. Depending on how fractured the rest of the vote is and transfers that could give them over 60 seats. They got 76 seats with 36% last time out, 60 seats with 30% is not out of the question.

The question is whether Labour and some other group of sensible independents get enough seats for a majority. In 2007 Labour got 20 seats with 10.8% of the vote, they are not far off that level now.

5 seats for Lucinda could be enough to get here into government with FG/Labour. In fact, possibly the best way of keeping her out would be to vote FG in order to ensure that they don't need her.

The real thing FG/Labour have going for them is the failure of FF to come back strongly. There are too many people who won't want SF in government and FG/Labour is the only real alternative at the moment.

And even some moderate left voters who wouldn't necessarily be horrified at the idea of SF in govt will be looking at the situation and asking where is a govt to come from if only two out of FF/FG/SF have the numbers. And will therefore only vote for FG & Lab candidates cos the current coalition is the only show in town...

Muahahaha · 22-02-2015 2:32am

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

And even some moderate left voters who wouldn't necessarily be horrified at the idea of SF in govt will be looking at the situation and asking where is a govt to come from if only two out of FF/FG/SF have the numbers. And will therefore only vote for FG & Lab candidates cos the current coalition is the only show in town...

but it never happens that way on a local level, you're assuming people go to the polling booths to elect their preference of government whereas what they're actually doing is voting for the person who they see at funerals and who can fix the road.

Only political anoraks like us here go into a polling booth voting for a government, the vast vast majorty of people are voting from a much different persepctive; local is everything in Ireland, national interests are secondary at an election

Sobko · 23-02-2015 12:08am

I think it will be FG minority government maybe made up with what remains of Labour and some independents thrown into the mix.

Dyr · 23-02-2015 12:45am

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

I wondered was there some machievillian cunning involved in the Murphy arrest on behalf of people who did not like the sympathy Joan got.
Especially the manner of the arrest guaranteed to get publicity.

Look at the suspects in Joan's 4 seat constituency;

Leo Varadkar - needs a great election in 2016 to threaten FG leadership.
Joe Higgins - "Man of the people"; not always guaranteed a seat. Ally of Murphy.
Ruth Coppinger - Elected after McNulty (ex-Labour) resigned. Not a fan of the Gardaí though.
Brian Lenihan (RIP) also topped the poll for years in Dublin West so FF could be looking to return a seat here in David McGuinness. They need to improve their Dublin showing bigtime in 2016 to get any credibility.

Methinks the vultures are circling on all Labour seats, Joan's included.

Who knows....Joan is very quiet on it in any case.

Cui bono.

I thought Higgins is adamant that he is not running and McGuinness is not going to get the nod for selection according to rumour

washman3 · 23-02-2015 12:53am

Sobko wrote: »

I think it will be FG minority government maybe made up with what remains of Labour and some independents thrown into the mix.

Labour will get 2 seats, anything more will be a bonus.
No 'party' with that amount should even be considered for a place in Government. Labour should be consigned to where they belong, the dustbin of history.! Wait for the flight of the 'elder lemons' as the election draws near, aka Fianna Fail before the last G.E.
The only viable alternative to protect the status qou of cronyism/corruption and gombeenism is a merger of FF/FG. There is virtually no difference between both parties now.
Speaking of gombeenism, take a look at Michael Rings rant at this weekends FG knees-up/back slapping exercise in Castlebar. Definitely a throwback to the Irish political scene 30-40 years ago. Its like a sketch taken directly from D'unbelievables. funny if it wasn't for the fact that people actually voted for this guy and he's the type of an inept soul that we send to negotiate in Europe. No wonder they're having a laugh at us.

touts · 23-02-2015 9:45am

Sobko wrote: »

I think it will be FG minority government maybe made up with what remains of Labour and some independents thrown into the mix.

FG would have to hold their current seats for that to happen. That's all but impossible. Last time out they gained a lot of last seats in constituencies on the back of a tidal wave of support. That's not going to happen this time. As the election draws closer I do think we will see their (and FF's) support harden as the socialist rants from the left will scare a lot of voters. But that support will really only be in the top 2-3 preferences. People will either vote for them or they won't. They won't get many transfers from leftist and independent candidates and as the smaller ones of those get eliminated then we will see a lot of protest candidates come up from behind and overtake a stalled FG sitting TD. By bet is they will lose at least a seat in every constituency. It will be even worse for Labour as their voters won't be scared by socialist rants from other parties and will have lots of alternatives to choose from. They could be lucky to come back with 2-3 seats.

The end result will be FG/FF/Reform Alliance/Reboot Ireland on one side and SF/Socialist Party on the other. It will be a right/left split. My bet at the moment is the right will win out mainly because as the whole United Left Alliance debacle showed the one thing Socialists hate more than the right/conservatives is other socialists. I just can't see Gerry Adams, Joe Higgins, Paul Murphy etc agreeing to share power.

Loafing Oaf · 23-02-2015 10:39am

touts wrote: »

The end result will be FG/FF/Reform Alliance/Reboot Ireland on one side and SF/Socialist Party on the other. It will be a right/left split. My bet at the moment is the right will win out mainly because as the whole United Left Alliance debacle showed the one thing Socialists hate more than the right/conservatives is other socialists. I just can't see Gerry Adams, Joe Higgins, Paul Murphy etc agreeing to share power.

But what if FF and FG refuse to deal with each other? Both Kenny and Martin have already ruled out a deal categorically enough to make it very difficult to reverse ferret post coalition?

So I'm wondering what's the minimum number of seats FG & Lab would need to make a coalition with the supports of Inds/small parties viable? I suggest it could be doable with 65, although even that is at the outer limits of what the two parties could hope to win. I think the many 'sensible Left' Inds like Catherine Murphy and Finian McGrath could be persuaded to support an FG/Lab coalition, although obviously the process of government formation would be messy & tortuous...

Dyr · 23-02-2015 11:59am

FF and, to a lesser extent, FG are down to their core vote. Can't see them alienating that vote by going into coaltion with each other. Stranger things have happened

Whatever about the rest of the leftist lucky bag, SF will avoid the Socialist party/AAA/insert-logo-here like the plague, they've shown they can't operate with any other party.

Mind you, The SP/AAA/no-bin-tax/whatever-you're-having-yourself wouldn't touch a role in a capitalist government with a barge pole, like garlic to a vampire.

touts · 23-02-2015 12:18pm

If FF and FG refuse to go into power together (or more specifically if Kenny and Martin refuse) then it is hard to see how a stable government will be formed on the right. Likewise there isn't a large enough socialist party to form a stable government on the left as they all hate each other's guts. We'll end up going back to the polls 3 months later with new leaders in FG and FF and then a coalition will not be ruled out (although they are likely to be heavily punished by the electorate for not putting petty civil war politics aside in which case a new centre right part like the rebooters might come to the fore).

As to the core FF/FG voters being against a coalition well I don't think the core FF or FG voter is that loyal to an old party ideal. The party members might be but the vast vast majority of their voters won't be. We are talking about voters who are voting for a centre right set of policies rather than a specific party. Remember a lot of them moved from FF to FG in the last election. They are now similar to the supporters of the Republican party in the US or the Conservative party in the UK or UMP in France. Voters with center right opinions and beliefs in areas such as economics, business, society etc. In the past they were so much in the majority in this country that they formed the two rival large parties. Now there is only enough for one large party but we are still left with the two old parties. They won't care if FF & FG go into coalition together as long as that keeps the left out of power.

We need to forget about the old civil war politics and instead look at a more standard Right vs Left politics.

Dyr · 23-02-2015 12:30pm

Out of curiosity, which labour tds are not running next time out? They've lost seven sitting TDs who aren't going to jump back onto a sinking ship, Quinn is out, Rabbite is meant to be knocking it on the head, Gilmore is going to try hang on (good luck with that). Are Stagg and Costello calling it a day?

Howlin might be the only one of their big guns left after the next election

Actually post election, could you have a bizarre situation where ex-Labour TDs outnumber Labour TDs?

Loafing Oaf · 23-02-2015 12:40pm

touts wrote: »

If FF and FG refuse to go into power together (or more specifically if Kenny and Martin refuse) then it is hard to see how a stable government will be formed on the right. Likewise there isn't a large enough socialist party to form a stable government on the left as they all hate each other's guts. We'll end up going back to the polls 3 months later with new leaders in FG and FF and then a coalition will not be ruled out (although they are likely to be heavily punished by the electorate for not putting petty civil war politics aside in which case a new centre right part like the rebooters might come to the fore).

This is certainly a plausible scenario. John McGuinness has already put his head above the parapet to lead FF in such a situation. I think FF would get the bigger kicking from the electorate in the follow-up election because they would be perceived as an irrelevance and an obstacle to the emergence of a proper left-right divide.

touts · 23-02-2015 12:56pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

This is certainly a plausible scenario. John McGuinness has already put his head above the parapet to lead FF in such a situation. I think FF would get the bigger kicking from the electorate in the follow-up election because they would be perceived as an irrelevance and an obstacle to the emergence of a proper left-right divide.

I think FF are smart enough to recognize this. They have had 5 years in opposition to think about this sort of thing while FG have been distracted by government. Also with the government holding an oireachtas inquiry into "banking" which is likely to turn into an anti-FF showtrial there is a real danger that they back themselves into a corner that they can't get out of. They might end up not having landed a serious blow on FF (remember we pretty much know everything about the bailout already) but end up unable to go into power with them.

Then we'll have the spectacle of FF in effect locked out of government buildings saying they are willing to do what is necessary in the national interest as Kenny drives out the gate to head to the Park to seek another election. The electorate will reward whichever party is seen to make every effort to form a coalition and if it is FG who walk away waving the civil war flag proudly then it will be FG who are wiped out in the second election. Plus FG have more splinter parties already breaking off from them (the Reform Alliance and the Rebooters) to take their vote.

blackwhite · 23-02-2015 1:06pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But what if FF and FG refuse to deal with each other? Both Kenny and Martin have already ruled out a deal categorically enough to make it very difficult to reverse ferret post coalition?

If the numbers add up (and it's still a big if), then we'd fairly quickly see hear about how "the people have spoken," etc. etc. and a deal would be struck nice and quickly.

To be fair though, this would most likely hold true for most of the possible coalitions, not just FG/FF

Loafing Oaf · 23-02-2015 1:37pm

blackwhite wrote: »

If the numbers add up (and it's still a big if), then we'd fairly quickly see hear about how "the people have spoken," etc. etc. and a deal would be struck nice and quickly.

I still think there's a point where if you rule something out categorically enough, you lose all credibility if you go back on your word, irrespective of 'national interest' etc. I think both Martin and Kenny may well have gone that point already, but even if they are not judged to have done so, they are both going to be badgered by every interviewer between now and the election to definitively rule out an FF/FG deal, to a point where they will feel obliged to do so or run the risk of not being able to talk about anything else...

unfortunately · 25-02-2015 10:14pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I still think there's a point where if you rule something out categorically enough, you lose all credibility if you go back on your word, irrespective of 'national interest' etc. I think both Martin and Kenny may well have gone that point already, but even if they are not judged to have done so, they are both going to be badgered by every interviewer between now and the election to definitively rule out an FF/FG deal, to a point where they will feel obliged to do so or run the risk of not being able to talk about anything else...

I think you underestimate how politicians can spin and change 180 degrees on topics without missing a beat. If FF and FG went into coalition, as has been said earlier on this thread, they'd just claim that the electorate has spoken or that it is necessary for stability or what was said in the past is in the past or we have to be pragmatic or a number of other though terminating cliches.

Idbatterim · 26-02-2015 2:58pm

I see FF as virtually the same as Labour, so if they went in together, I cant see much change to what we currently have...

Baggy Trousers · 26-02-2015 3:07pm

Does anyone else think Enda will retire at the end of this term?
I think he might.

Quin_Dub · 26-02-2015 3:13pm

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Does anyone else think Enda will retire at the end of this term?
I think he might.

Not a chance.. He wants to be the 1st FG Leader to get a re-elected..

He might stand down in a year or two , but he'll be there for the election.

Loafing Oaf · 26-02-2015 3:36pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

He might stand down in a year or two.

Or run for the presidency in 2018...

Next (2016) Gov: FF, FG & Lab? (Bankers Gov?)

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