Petrol

Geuze

120.9 / 132.9 at one station in Sligo today.

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

120.9 / 132.9 at one station in Sligo today.

Two filling stations quite close to me (and to each other) on the southside of Dublin were selling at 119.9 and 129.9 today.

matrim

Driving from Dublin to waterford today prices for diesel ranged from 1.19 to 1.25 with the most common price being around 1.21

Geuze

delahuntv wrote: »

Thought I'd update this because there will be headlines today about oil breaking below $80 and the usual poor standard of journalism we see these days will be asking why fuel prices have not dropped 40% because the dollar price of oil has dropped 40%.

Cost of oil per litre on the spot market is currently 40.5c ($79.8 / 1.24 exchange rate / 159 liters in barrel)
Cost of refining into fuel and delivering to port estimated at approx 6c/litre for petrol, about 8c for diesel.
Duty & Carbon tax 59.6c for petrol, 48.6c diesel.
Estimated combined distributor/retail take = 9c-11c / litre
Cost before vat, Petrol 115c - 117c, diesel 106c - 108c

Add vat @ 23%

and the price you should see at the pumps sometime next week should be about 1.41 - 1.44 for petrol & 1.31 - 1.33 for diesel.


For Kerosene you should be able to get 1000 litres for €720 - €740 at end of next week.



If oil suddenly jumped 50% overnight - the increase at the pumps would be about 25c. Likewise, if it drops to $40 (and that could happen), just another 25c would come off at the pumps, as its the 40.5c raw oil cost that changes (and the vat on that), most other costs stay as they are.

I will attempt the same analysis now.

Spot Brent is at 57.86 USD per barrel, from the US EIA website:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

The euro has fallen to 1.20 USD, so a barrel is 48.22 EUR and a litre of crude is 30.3 cent.

Add 8c for diesel refining cost, and excise of 48.6c, and 9-11c for distributor/retailer.

This leads to 95.9c - 97.9c for diesel

Add 23% VAT means 118 cent - 120.5 cent for diesel.

delahuntv

Refining cost of diesel jumped about 2 weeks ago to approx 55c/ US gallon in US refineries.

Assuming a similar jump in European refineries (usually similar pricing), cost of diesel refining is currently about 12.5c per litre.

Increase happens every year because huge extra demand for diesel derived fuel such as home heat and fuel for diesel power electricity generation.

prices you currently are seeing at about 1.23 average are about right.

robert muldoon

delahuntv wrote: »

Refining cost of diesel jumped about 2 weeks ago to approx 55c/ US gallon in US refineries.

Assuming a similar jump in European refineries (usually similar pricing), cost of diesel refining is currently about 12.5c per litre.

Increase happens every year because huge extra demand for diesel derived fuel such as home heat and fuel for diesel power electricity generation.

prices you currently are seeing at about 1.23 average are about right.

I notice some increases occurring in petrol , increases of I-3 cents, I presume this is due to weakening euro although it has come in very quickly

slimjimmc

@Odyssey 2005 & emeldc: If you wish to discuss moderation please take it to PM or the feedback forum. Do not do it in-thread please.

Geuze

Prices in one Sligo station now 117.9 / 127.9

omicron

Spot brent under $50 per barrel this morning, big drops the last few days so we should be seeing diesel hit widespread €1.16-€1.20, and petrol €1.22-€1.25. Would be more but for the euro dropping rapidly.

robert muldoon

omicron wrote: »

Spot brent under $50 per barrel this morning, big drops the last few days so we should be seeing diesel hit widespread €1.16-€1.20, and petrol €1.22-€1.25. Would be more but for the euro dropping rapidly.

There are still a lot of stations in the 1.32- 1.37 bracket in the Dublin area, so they have a lot to do!!!

delahuntv

robert muldoon wrote: »

I notice some increases occurring in petrol , increases of I-3 cents, I presume this is due to weakening euro although it has come in very quickly

currency changes will always happen very quickly as usually it would be paid for on delivery to port from the refinery or when it leaves the refinery (only takes a day for delivery to port)

delahuntv

robert muldoon wrote: »

There are still a lot of stations in the 1.32- 1.37 bracket in the Dublin area, so they have a lot to do!!!

it went fro $57 to $50 just in the last couple of days - it will be end of next week before you see that drop on the forecourt.

On home heat - it look like the €600/1000 litres will be broken soon.

Last year I did 3 x 500 litre fills at about 450 - 480 each - this year, due to mild weather I'm still on 1st 500ltr - I'm treating myself (and hereslf) to a fab holiday on the savings!

Geuze

Thanks delahuntv.

I have been dipping the oil tank more often, trying to hold off my purchase.

29-Nov = 40cm+

29-Dec = 30cm+



At 20cm I will start getting nervous, don't want to run dry.

The price here is 320 / 640 for 500L/1000L.

Geuze

omicron wrote: »

Spot brent under $50 per barrel this morning, big drops the last few days so we should be seeing diesel hit widespread €1.16-€1.20, and petrol €1.22-€1.25. Would be more but for the euro dropping rapidly.

Yes, Brent was approx 60 USD during second half of Dec.

http://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

Now at 51 USD.

But the euro has fallen 10 cents USD in under three months, now under 1.18 USD

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/exchange/eurofxref/html/index.en.html

51 USD at 1.18 USD means 27.18 cent for raw crude per litre.

whiterebel

Diesel €1.18 in Kinsalebeg today, still €1.26 in the Midleton garages, but they're not conspiring to keep the price high, oh no.....

delahuntv

The good news is all the forecasts are suggesting that prices will go lower (many suggesting $40) and some are suggesting that the day of $100 oil is over for the forseeable future.

Stable low oil prices will feed into other fuels too and Gas prices will probably see further drops (it never ahd the wild swings ofoil) and even coal will come under pressure.

Over time that will feed into general prices and we'll see drops in electricity / gas / transport rather than increases.

Geuze

delahuntv,

here are some links you might like:

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/01/demand-factors-in-the-collapse-of-oil-prices

http://soberlook.com/2015/01/energy-price-declines-not-limited-to-oil.html

Geuze

Kero was 320 / 640 earlier this week for 500 / 1000 litres where I am.


Now cut to 314 / 615 - these are web prices.

whiterebel

The world must be ending. Midleton dropped to €1.24 for diesel!!

Geuze

Lowest in Sligo now 116.9 for diesel.

emeldc

whiterebel wrote: »

The world must be ending. Midleton dropped to €1.24 for diesel!!

Thievin' gypsies

Still 1.29 for diesel in naas

TheDoc

Prices finally came down to "non robbing bastard" level in Swords. Applegreen moving in there did wonders. They had a fuel sale over Christmas and Petrol got down to 1.29, which was pretty low for that area considering it was 1.45 not so long ago.

Topaz up at the other end forced to drop prices too.

Had a quick flutter through this thread and didnt see a mention of the Applegreen app. Granted its some marketing for them, it shows all the fuel prices for ALL petrol stations in the country. Takes a while for new stations to appear in the app, but it looks to update the pricing every day.(or tries too)

delahuntv

BrownFinger wrote: »

Still 1.29 for diesel in naas

I think you are mixing petrol and diesel - I'm in Naas area and see 1.21 - 1.23 for diesel in applegreen & maxol

Odyssey 2005

delahuntv wrote: »

I think you are mixing petrol and diesel - I'm in Naas area and see 1.21 - 1.23 for diesel in applegreen & maxol

:eek:

delahuntv

Overall it looks like prices have hit bottom for the time being and risen 10% from the low of last week when currency change is taken into account.

don't be surprised by a cent or 2 increase as the euro tanked 4 cent last week and currency changes only take a few days to feed into pump prices because the refined product is paid for in dollars when it leaves the refinery - and from refinery to pump is 4-5 days in many cases.

heating oil at 599/1000 litres (Top) is a definite buy if you are low.

delahuntv

Overall it looks like prices have hit bottom for the time being and risen 10% from the low of last week when currency change is taken into account.

don't be surprised by a cent or 2 increase as the euro tanked 4 cent last week and currency changes only take a few days to feed into pump prices because the refined product is paid for in dollars when it leaves the refinery - and from refinery to pump is 4-5 days in many cases.

heating oil at 599/1000 litres (Top) is a definite buy if you are low.

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

Kero was 320 / 640 earlier this week for 500 / 1000 litres where I am.


Now cut to 314 / 615 - these are web prices.

Kero now 309 / 608 in Sligo.

Geuze

Geuze wrote: »

Lowest in Sligo now 116.9 for diesel.

Diesel now 115.9 in Sligo, petrol 124.9.

Hesh's Umpire

<SNIP> Tullamore today. Unleaded 118.8, diesel 113.8