Petrol

robert muldoon

could someone tell me what the price of petrol should be,US dollar around 126 and brent oil 91$ . The lowest price around Dublin 1.49. Highest 1.55 , that is not a significant reduction considering brent has fallen from 1.15 to 91, I know the Euro-US dollar has also weakened from 1.35 to 1.26, are the cancelling each other out??

slimjimmc

What do you mean that the price "should be"? The price at the pumps depends on a plethora of influences many of which are not directly linked to the commodity price of crude. It also takes time for crude price drops to filter down through the processing and supply chain.

dudara

There are a lot of value-add factors to be included from the crude oil stage to the pump stage. Refining, shipping, distribution and marketing all have to be factored in, and there are probably many more that I'm not thinking of. Add in the fact that companies wil lhave hedged their purchases and it could take quite a while for the price drops to be reflected at the pump.

D3PO

convenient that you should open this thread when another similar one was just closed down ....

the price should be whatever the retailer wants to charge. Its called being part of a commercial marketplace.

Beano

The government have added 23c per liter in extra taxes since 2008. approx 60% of the price you pay goes directly to the government. Any change in wholesale prices can only affect the other 40%. Plus the fact that the euro is at rock bottom against the dollar pretty much explains it all.

robert muldoon

dudara wrote: »

There are a lot of value-add factors to be included from the crude oil stage to the pump stage. Refining, shipping, distribution and marketing all have to be factored in, and there are probably many more that I'm not thinking of. Add in the fact that companies wil lhave hedged their purchases and it could take quite a while for the price drops to be reflected at the pump.

Since June last there has been a big drop in Brent price and the euro dollar rate and as far as I know there has been no significant change in distribution costs or taxes etc!so my question is does the euro dollar rate cancel out any downward benefits of the prices at the pumps?

Beano

robert muldoon wrote: »

Since June last there has been a big drop in Brent price and the euro dollar rate and as far as I know there has been no significant change in distribution costs or taxes etc!so my question is does the euro dollar rate cancel out any downward benefits of the prices at the pumps?

you are not thinking about this correctly. there is more to the price at the pumps than the price of brent crude. they don't just take brent crude and stick it into your tank. the crude oil has to be fractioned before you get the petrol used in the pumps. All of the other costs associated with petrol such as the distilling and distribution do not change when the price of crude drops. the price of the crude oil makes up a small part of what we pay at the pumps. Coupled with the very weak euro it is no surprise that prices at the pumps have not dropped.

robert muldoon

Beano wrote: »

you are not thinking about this correctly. there is more to the price at the pumps than the price of brent crude. they don't just take brent crude and stick it into your tank. the crude oil has to be fractioned before you get the petrol used in the pumps. All of the other costs associated with petrol such as the distilling and distribution do not change when the price of crude drops. the price of the crude oil makes up a small part of what we pay at the pumps. Coupled with the very weak euro it is no surprise that prices at the pumps have not dropped.

Sorry Beano you are missing MY point,I am aware of all the ingredients that make up the price at the pumps. What I am trying to establish is if the price at the pumps last June was 158 and the euro / dollar was 136. Brent was 115$ Today the price average according to Pumps.ie at the pumps is 151, brent 91$ , euro/dollar 126. I would have thought a lot lower prices at the pumps should be coming thru, that's if Noonan doesn't throw another few cents at it in the budget next week

Beano

robert muldoon wrote: »

Sorry Beano you are missing MY point,I am aware of all the ingredients that make up the price at the pumps. What I am trying to establish is if the price at the pumps last June was 158 and the euro / dollar was 136. Brent was 115$ Today the price average according to Pumps.ie at the pumps is 151, brent 91$ , euro/dollar 126. I would have thought a lot lower prices at the pumps should be coming thru, that's if Noonan doesn't throw another few cents at it in the budget next week

how much lower do you think it should be? Presumably you have worked this out.

robert muldoon

Beano wrote: »

how much lower do you think it should be? Presumably you have worked this out

That was the question I was asking
There was a guy on the pumps.ie forum who had the formula for the Brent versus US$ rate but that forum seems to be defunct

D3PO

why is this even here ? this isnt a consumer issue. The price is the price if you dont like it open your own petrol station and charge less.

dudara

D3PO less of the backseat moderating. If you have an up issue with a post, then please Report it to bring it to a moderator's attention.

K.Flyer

robert muldoon wrote: »

...
Today the price average according to Pumps.ie at the pumps is 151, brent 91$ , euro/dollar 126. I would have thought a lot lower prices at the pumps should be coming thru...

Prices have been falling over the recent weeks / month. I don't know how pumps.ie collate their figures, but the average price of petrol that I see when driving around Dublin these days is sub 1.50, with a good few 1.48 spotted today.
Topaz is typically the most expensive pumps around Dublin, with their Ballymun station being a wallet busting 1.599 a litre for petrol and 1.499 for Diesel. (08-10-2014)
Diesel is now an average of 1.41, with some stations, including some Esso being sub 1.40.
So it pays to keep an eye out on the displays as you pass the garages and go get the better prices.

delahuntv

When the Brent oil price was $108 last July, the dollar was at $1.37/€1, hence a Euro price of €78.8 per barrel. Last week the Brent oil price was $96 and the dollar rate is 1.26 hence a euro price last week of €75.40 per barrel. A reduction of just over 4% since July.

Considering the duty of almost 60c (74c inc vat) is fixed and does not change and average distribution and retailer margin of about 11c (13.5c inc vat) also does not change, it means the net cost of petrol today excluding vat and duty is 54c (66.5c inc vat). Based on the these figures, the pump price reduction since 1st July should have been about 3c, which I think is about what has been experienced.

If the dollar/euro stays stable, every $5 drop in oil prices should see about 3c drop in the pumps about 2 weeks after.


To sum up, out of your 1.55 petrol price, 90c goes to taxes, 11c goes to distribution and retail costs and just 54c is the actual net cost of the fuel and that includes refining cost too! So if the oil price was $1 a barrel, you would still be paying about €1.10 a litre at the pump.

L1011

K.Flyer wrote: »

I don't know how pumps.ie collate their figures, but the average price of petrol that I see when driving around Dublin these days is sub 1.50, with a good few 1.48 spotted today.

Manual submission by users. Back when it was more commonly used, Applegreen used to update their own prices but I don't think they do anymore.

robert muldoon

delahuntv wrote: »

When the Brent oil price was $108 last July, the dollar was at $1.37/€1, hence a Euro price of €78.8 per barrel. Last week the Brent oil price was $96 and the dollar rate is 1.26 hence a euro price last week of €75.40 per barrel. A reduction of just over 4% since July.

Considering the duty of almost 60c (74c inc vat) is fixed and does not change and average distribution and retailer margin of about 11c (13.5c inc vat) also does not change, it means the net cost of petrol today excluding vat and duty is 54c (66.5c inc vat). Based on the these figures, the pump price reduction since 1st July should have been about 3c, which I think is about what has been experienced.

If the dollar/euro stays stable, every $5 drop in oil prices should see about 3c drop in the pumps about 2 weeks after.


To sum up, out of your 1.55 petrol price, 90c goes to taxes, 11c goes to distribution and retail costs and just 54c is the actual net cost of the fuel and that includes refining cost too! So if the oil price was $1 a barrel, you would still be paying about €1.10 a litre at the pump.

Thanks delahunt, that is exactly the information I was looking for

delahuntv

Thought I'd update this because there will be headlines today about oil breaking below $80 and the usual poor standard of journalism we see these days will be asking why fuel prices have not dropped 40% because the dollar price of oil has dropped 40%.

Cost of oil per litre on the spot market is currently 40.5c ($79.8 / 1.24 exchange rate / 159 liters in barrel)
Cost of refining into fuel and delivering to port estimated at approx 6c/litre for petrol, about 8c for diesel.
Duty & Carbon tax 59.6c for petrol, 48.6c diesel.
Estimated combined distributor/retail take = 9c-11c / litre
Cost before vat, Petrol 115c - 117c, diesel 106c - 108c

Add vat @ 23%

and the price you should see at the pumps sometime next week should be about 1.41 - 1.44 for petrol & 1.31 - 1.33 for diesel.


For Kerosene you should be able to get 1000 litres for €720 - €740 at end of next week.



If oil suddenly jumped 50% overnight - the increase at the pumps would be about 25c. Likewise, if it drops to $40 (and that could happen), just another 25c would come off at the pumps, as its the 40.5c raw oil cost that changes (and the vat on that), most other costs stay as they are.

Tarabuses

That is a very good forecast but I wonder if it will happen? As I write Texaco on the Merrion Road, Dublin is still charging €1.529 for petrol and €1.449 for diesel.

I know this is on the high side but I haven't seen any move into your price bands as yet.

RayCon

delahuntv wrote: »

and the price you should see at the pumps sometime next week should be about 1.41 - 1.44 for petrol & 1.31 - 1.33 for diesel.

good work delahunty .... I'm paying €1.45.8 in Celbridge at the moment

robert muldoon

Petrol dropped to 1.45 today on the 3 stations on the Naas rd

K.Flyer

Tarabuses wrote: »

That is a very good forecast but I wonder if it will happen? As I write Texaco on the Merrion Road, Dublin is still charging €1.529 for petrol and €1.449 for diesel.

I know this is on the high side but I haven't seen any move into your price bands as yet.

Crazy to give them the money.
Topaz still on the higher side as well.
Esso on Ballymun Road 1.43 for Diesel and more again for petrol.
But quite a few stations around Dublin City and suburbs are at an average of 1.34 for Diesel and 1.43 for petrol.
Pays to keep the eyes open.

L1011

This kind of market conditions is where people should be using - and updating - pumps.ie. Prices will fall at certain stations massively before others.

I notice that no station really seems willing to go below 1.40 for petrol - there's been a few 139.9's appear but never for long.

coylemj

Serious difference in some localities, even with the same brand. Yesterday the Texaco at the N11 end of Clonkeen Road in Deansgrange was 1.52 for unleaded while the little Texaco place opp. the Magic Carpet on the other side of the N11 and not 1km away was 1.45. Pays to shop around!

robert muldoon

So Delahhunt, what's your latest forecast after yesterdays events, another 4 cent drop?. I must say Conor Faughan ( of AA fame) was quite unhelpful with his comments in today's Indo! He has a thing about the Gov tax of 60c which hasn't changed in two years

delahuntv

Currently raw oil is costing 37c a litre, down about 3c for 10 days ago. So I reckon just below €1.30 for diesel and just below €1.40 for petrol in less than 2 weeks - assuming that oil prices stay down.

about 75c of that diesel price is tax & 85c of the petrol price is tax.

delahuntv

Reading articles today on financial websites shows the following was european spot price earlier today
(price in euro)

Cost of oil per litre 36.7c

Cost of refined gasoline per litre 43.2c

Cost of refined diesel per litre 48.2c

Due to the demand for diesel in winter from power stations & trucks & home heat, refiners charge a premium compared to petrol. Its also more difficult to refine especially with emission controls.

So taking these prices, adding 11c for retail & distribution, 59.6c tax for petrol / 48.6c for diesel and then add 23% vat to all that and your forecourt price will soon be 139.9 for petrol and 131.9 for diesel on average.

Kerosene seems to have dropped to €720 / 1000 litres in many places today - not much further move than that. (home heat has just 5c duty and 13.5% vat)

K.Flyer

Four days ago

delahuntv wrote: »

Currently raw oil is costing 37c a litre, down about 3c for 10 days ago. So I reckon just below €1.30 for diesel and just below €1.40 for petrol in less than 2 weeks - assuming that oil prices stay down.
about 75c of that diesel price is tax & 85c of the petrol price is tax.

Just spotted the Campus service station in Hollystown D.15, Petrol @ 1.39 and Diesel @ 1.31.

whiskeyman

Tarabuses wrote: »

That is a very good forecast but I wonder if it will happen? As I write Texaco on the Merrion Road, Dublin is still charging €1.529 for petrol and €1.449 for diesel.

I know this is on the high side but I haven't seen any move into your price bands as yet.

Those Texacos take the p*ss.
I only presume it's due to the high rent they've to pay?

Campus on East Wall Road is around the 1.41 mark, and I reckon the Self service Maxol up on teh Coast Road in Clontarf / Raheny should be around 1.40 or below by now.

Stinicker

Anybody have any idea how the recent oil slide might effect LPG prices?

mollymac57

Newly opened Esso in Tipperary town (near Tesco) was 138.9 last time I filled up. BTW is pumps.ie gone offline?

L1011

mollymac57 wrote: »

Newly opened Esso in Tipperary town (near Tesco) was 138.9 last time I filled up. BTW is pumps.ie gone offline?

pumps.ie has very unreliable hosting. Currently all I'm getting is the banner at the top.

It also has a muppet who keeps putting in "99.9" prices on active stations at random to screw it up, not sure enough attention is paid to get them banned these days.