Tesla

nokia69

BoatMad wrote: »

I watched the video all the way through , he makes no such claim about 20-80% charging, either you didn't watch it or you don't understand the basis of that video ( which is about precision columetric measurements as a way of predicting long term cycle life effects )

sorry BM, I should also have said that a while back someone who has a Model S saw the video, and was interested to know how long the professor in the video thought his cars battery might last for, so he E-mailed the professor and he replied that if the battery was kept between 20-80% it should be good for decades, I think he does talk about only charging to 80% in the video too when he talks about the Volt battery

I did watch the video, but its been a while , and I think I understand the video, its not really too complicated but very interesting IMO

AFAIK the advice from Tesla is to charge to 90% for day to day driving. they can collect information from all their cars so they have plenty of real world data to work with at this stage

cros13

traco wrote: »

For that reason a Tesla is a possibilty at a stretch but the Leaf just wouldn't have the range.

Definitely for work purposes I'd agree with you. Most of my mileage is recreational so the required charging stops fit in fine with the relaxed pace of those kind of journeys.

traco wrote: »

I'm not sure I agree about the ICE electrical engineers, 75% of my customers are electronic automotive suppliers and they have some very high tech products

That's the problem. All those guys were outsourced out to suppliers like continental where they are building commoditised parts. They are often building great products but they are not part of making design decisions for the cars or taking a system level design view of the whole vehicle.

The problem the Auto industry faces is that they are such a mature industry. Everything is commoditised parts, last minute delivery, thin margins and established manufacturing processes with a ****ton of capital sunk into it.

traco wrote: »

the OTA upgrades make me a little nervous

Tesla at least has a fairly extensive multi-level beta program which some owners participate in and are willing to take the risk on. By the time an OTA goes to wide release it's probably already had staged deployment to 10% of the 100k or so Model S out there.

traco wrote: »

The gigafactory could be the "killer app"; the cars coupled with the Powerwall should create the demand needed and then the scale should drive costs down. This will be interesting to see over the coming years how it impacts price.

Definitely. The stationary storage market in particular is going to be massive. Far beyond the size of the oil and gas industry. I'm already signed up for 200kWh of powerpacks.

Take the example of your customer with a three phase generator. Think of the possibilities battery storage would offer for them. Three phase power would potentially be as easy as fitting a three phase inverter to existing energy storage, and they could shift power on a time based tariff, charging their batteries at night and shifting some of their daytime demand to times of lower demand. Going further, why does eirgrid need to have long distance transmission capacity if exceptional demand can be met by grid scale battery storage and think of what you can do to optimise the efficiancy of existing power plants if you can build a buffer of battery storage.

The powerwalls are 12kWh of cells (set up for 7.5kWh depth for daily use (~3000 cycles) or 10kWh for 1000-1500 cycles), BMS and thermal management in a wall mountable, weatherproof enclosure for $3000 ($3500 for the 10kWh even though it's the same hardware) with a 10 year warranty. That's astounding. What's even more astounding is that Tesla will sell you (for an additional 10% on to the purchase price) doubling of the warranty to 20 years.

traco wrote: »

I don't know if there is VRT on electric.

There is....the VRT exemption ended in 2012 and was replaced by a €5k credit which doesn't even fully cover the VRT on a Leaf. I had a deposit on a Model S at the time and the removal of the exemption combined with Tesla calling me up to tell me they were applying a surcharge to RHD models put paid to that.

traco wrote: »

So I reckon the base model here would be very close to €85k on the road.

Pretty much, but if you are spending that money you'd want the 70D. I priced that out including autopilot as well for Irish delivery at €92k.

traco wrote: »

So based on that model I would be keeping this type of car for a considerable period so I reckon not factoring in a new set of batteries would be foolish. Mad_Lad said that after 8 years they will sell you a new battery pack for 8k, if that is true then then adding an extra 1k per year in terms of annual runnings costs is tiny and the Model S is a real contender for rep use. If the pack is 50k well then its another story entirely.

The most reliable information (from JB Straubel, Tesla CTO) we have is that the Model S pack price is currently less than quarter of the price of the vehicle. That $1k per annum will probably be a big chunk of the price of a new vehicle in 8 years, I'm not sure spending the money on an old Model S would ever make sense.

AFAIR the option to prepurchase a replacement battery was only offered for the first few months of production before they launched the unlimited mileage warranty. $8k applied to the 40kWh model S which is as rare as hens teeth and there was a €2k bump for each battery up the range.

nokia69

cros13 wrote: »

Definitely. The stationary storage market in particular is going to be massive. Far beyond the size of the oil and gas industry. I'm already signed up for 200kWh of powerpacks.

what do you need 200kWh:eek: for, if you don't mind me asking, and what will it cost ?

I agree stationary storage will be a massive money maker in a few years, and a real game changer in a lot of areas

nokia69

cros13 wrote: »

The most reliable information (from JB Straubel, Tesla CTO) we have is that the Model S pack price is currently less than quarter of the price of the vehicle. That $1k per annum will probably be a big chunk of the price of a new vehicle in 8 years, I'm not sure spending the money on an old Model S would ever make sense.

it might make sense, it will depend on the cost of a new battery pack, a 10 year old model S with a 100+kWh battery would be an interesting car

cros13

nokia69 wrote: »

what do you need 200kWh:eek: for, if you don't mind me asking, and what will it cost ?

Got an off-grid project planned. I need that much capacity to meet peak demand.

Pricing for large utilities buying the powerpack works out about $250/kWh.

I'm going to be buying a few of the 7.5kWh powerwalls for domestic use as well.

reboot

Crops 13, I've read we have the biggest battery storage system in our N.I power station,but when I suggested someone look at tying it into the EV system, guess what Ecarni said? You're correct, nothing. A lot of interest across Europe and Japan in HVDC systems may tie into this topic one day.A start could be made if ESB could power up some of our CPs which appear to be dead since the "Handover", maybe preping for a new charge regime coming after Feb?

cros13

Tesla has said that eventually they will roll out battery storage to superchargers.
To increase self-consumption when they add solar, purchase power at times of low demand, reduce the required import capacity of the site and provide backup power in the event of a power cut.

But at the moment that model is not financially viable for anyone, not even Tesla.

I think with the addition of grid storage and distributed generation eventually the electricity grid will fragment into micro-grids connecting just the local area.

reboot

cros13 wrote: »

Tesla has said that eventually they will roll out battery storage to superchargers.
To increase self-consumption when they add solar, purchase power at times of low demand, reduce the required import capacity of the site and provide backup power in the event of a power cut.

But at the moment that model is not financially viable for anyone, not even Tesla.

I think with the addition of grid storage and distributed generation eventually the electricity grid will fragment into micro-grids connecting just the local area.

Just by the way heard the enviroment Minister Mr Dirkan, on the wireless, just now being asked why N.I is the only part of the Islands that does not have a policy on climate change, guess we should start there. I would like to be at a meeting when he is asked why after 3 years EVs can't get into the charging bay blocked by petrol cars, and still no penaltys or even a sign?

reboot

cros13 wrote: »

Tesla has said that eventually they will roll out battery storage to superchargers.
To increase self-consumption when they add solar, purchase power at times of low demand, reduce the required import capacity of the site and provide backup power in the event of a power cut.

But at the moment that model is not financially viable for anyone, not even Tesla.

I think with the addition of grid storage and distributed generation eventually the electricity grid will fragment into micro-grids connecting just the local area.

At one time Belfast had a 100 volt DC supply, white sockets and round pins.I used it many times in an electronic workshop fixing cats whiskers.

BoatMad

cros13 wrote: »

I think with the addition of grid storage and distributed generation eventually the electricity grid will fragment into micro-grids connecting just the local area.

I think we are more likely to get EI mandated feed-in tariffs, then we are to see a fractured grid.

The reality is that most off grid systems make no sense on a capital return basis, especially for average domestic users.

centralised power generation will always be a better use of capital

BoatMad

reboot wrote: »

At one time Belfast had a 100 volt DC supply, white sockets and round pins.I used it many times in an electronic workshop fixing cats whiskers.

yes an people also lit candles and used whale oil, but we've moved on .....:D

BoatMad

nokia69 wrote: »

it might make sense, it will depend on the cost of a new battery pack, a 10 year old model S with a 100+kWh battery would be an interesting car

I would agree with Cros13, I think replacement batteries will be very expensive , its not in teslas interest to have exceptionally long lived models, so even if you were getting the car for basically free, it wouldn't make sense , I mean you canb buy 10 year old big engined BMWs today for peanuts, would you then put 25K into such a car, unlikely ,

BoatMad

nokia69 wrote: »

sorry BM, I should also have said that a while back someone who has a Model S saw the video, and was interested to know how long the professor in the video thought his cars battery might last for, so he E-mailed the professor and he replied that if the battery was kept between 20-80% it should be good for decades, I think he does talk about only charging to 80% in the video too when he talks about the Volt battery

I did watch the video, but its been a while , and I think I understand the video, its not really too complicated but very interesting IMO

AFAIK the advice from Tesla is to charge to 90% for day to day driving. they can collect information from all their cars so they have plenty of real world data to work with at this stage

really an anonymous email, etc

at no time does he mention ANYTHING about the suitability of 80% charging in that video.

As the learnt professor points out , that at present the only real way we have of comparing battery life to various metrics ( charge cycling , percent charge, temperature) is to actually build data over the real lifetime of the battery , even Tesla doesnt have enough data at this stage, no one has.

remember a BMS i.e. the charge computer , decides what is 80, 90 or 100% , what you do is irrelevant , because no responsible engineer is going to allow a " user" to screw up his battery design.