Tesla

Scottie99

BoatMad wrote: »

I guarantee The Model 3 will never be on sale for 35K dollars, when it actually releases

I'd say the very basic could be that price. If your wanting maybe bigger battery plus all the gadgets, it'll be 50+

BoatMad

Scottie99 wrote: »

I'd say the very basic could be that price. If your wanting maybe bigger battery plus all the gadgets, it'll be 50+

If you read the various industry trade publications, many seem to be very skeptical that Tesla can make the car for that price, Theres a lot if imponderables, including Gigaplant cost savings, switching to steel construction etc etc

we shall see

The Model S will naturally be expensive here due to import duties, cost for right hand drive, V.A.T + V.R.T .

Not forgetting the Increasing value of the U.S Dollar.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

The Model S will naturally be expensive here due to import duties, cost for right hand drive, V.A.T + V.R.T .

Not forgetting the Increasing value of the U.S Dollar.

its an expensive car in the US too as far as it goes

nokia69

BoatMad wrote: »

its an expensive car in the US too as far as it goes

Not really, AFAIK its very close in price to the top of the range BMWs, Audi Mercs ect they match them in price but beat them in performance and running cost, the Model 3 will be the same, it will be the best performing car in its price range

BoatMad

nokia69 wrote: »

Not really, AFAIK its very close in price to the top of the range BMWs, Audi Mercs ect they match them in price

The High end Audi, BMW Merc IS perceived in the US as a prestige end of the market and a costing 80-100K is very much perceived as high end.

but beat them in performance and running cost, the Model 3 will be the same, it will be the best performing car in its price range

running costs with fuel in the US as it is , is simply not a factor for buyers of 80-100K cars, thats the area of buyers of 10-25K cars.

performance is a mythical beast anyway , 4.1s versus 3.8s etc etc , its all nonsense .

Tesla is exploiting a botiuque niche, tech aware , early adopters with money . It remains to be seen if they can ever go mainstream

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

its an expensive car in the US too as far as it goes

Everything is expensive to the Americans, they pay feck all or almost feck all tax on goods and they still complain about things being expensive !, if they only lived in Europe !

reboot

nokia69 wrote: »

The Model S was NEVER going to cost 30K it competes with high end BMWs Mercs ect

and of course they had production problems at the start, its the first mass market car they built, give them a chance FFS

its the next car the Model 3 that will cost 35K, we get a first look at the Model 3 in March

Just quoting the Doc, no confirmation this end.

Don't forget that if the price is 35 K usD + about 10 K Euro's I believe ? to convert to RHD and the grant and vrt of 5k ? relief are still in place than that will be 10 K euro's off the price.

nokia69

BoatMad wrote: »

The High end Audi, BMW Merc IS perceived in the US as a prestige end of the market and a costing 80-100K is very much perceived as high end.

yes its high end, but its a similar price to the cars it competes against, but you save on the running costs

BoatMad wrote: »

running costs with fuel in the US as it is , is simply not a factor for buyers of 80-100K cars, thats the area of buyers of 10-25K cars.

I'm not so sure, I think everyone looks at running cost, I saw one review of the Model S that said over 5 years it would save 20K sterling in fuel cost over the alternative BMW

BoatMad wrote: »

performance is a mythical beast anyway , 4.1s versus 3.8s etc etc , its all nonsense .

I think people really do notice a real difference in the Model S

BoatMad wrote: »

Tesla is exploiting a botiuque niche, tech aware , early adopters with money . It remains to be seen if they can ever go mainstream

true to a certain extant, but IMO its just a better car, and that the Model 3 will be a huge success in the mainstream

in its first year the model S took about 20% of the high end car market in the US, thats pretty significant IMO, its more than just early adopters

BoatMad

nokia69 wrote: »

yes its high end, but its a similar price to the cars it competes against, but you save on the running costs




I'm not so sure, I think everyone looks at running cost, I saw one review of the Model S that said over 5 years it would save 20K sterling in fuel cost over the alternative BMW

I think people really do notice a real difference in the Model S

true to a certain extant, but IMO its just a better car, and that the Model 3 will be a huge success in the mainstream

in its first year the model S took about 20% of the high end car market in the US, thats pretty significant IMO, its more than just early adopters

given 2013 analysis of Tesla sales , difficult as they dont report country by country , bloomberg estimated they had 8.4% of the luxury market, which itself is about 10% of the total US car market , Tesla is bigger then BMW, Merc Audi, individually , but not of course when added.

its a boutique niche.

traco

Before I start I have to say I love the Tesla S and have a genuine interest in the EV market. I was seriouly conisdering the new Leaf with the 30kWh but at circa €30k and one for €36k I'm thinking I'll stick with used ICE for a while yet.

I'm fascinated with Tesla and its one I have been watching for a while so I'm going to play devils advicate here and throw out things that I see as an issue, the biggest one being the price. So wth flame suit on here goes:

The tech in them is great but think in reality much of it is standard technology that has been excellently marketed and presented by Tesla. In reality its an interface, cool gadgets and a motor control systems. Systems that have been in use in high powered high speed robotics for decades performing far more controled tasks than propeling a car but perhaps not known to the general public.

The Model S interior build quality and finish is average, its nowhere near that of a premium german brand, I would actually say that the current Chevy Impala has higher quality materials and finish inside than the Tesla S. I am saying this having been in one and having a very good poke around. It looks well but the materials used are not top of the range luxury materials, more middle of the road stuff. The current Impala is actually a very very nice car to sit in and drive, I would go so far as to say I was was shocked at how good it actually is. Its no sports car but as an A to B machine it was really excellent.

What Tesla have done is set out to design an electric car from the ground up and done that very well, they do use high quality materials in the chassis and its well engineered so all credit to them for doing that. Sling the batteries under teh floor pan and using aluminiun along with good chasssis design was what the EV industry needed to do. Many of the current ICE guys just electrfy their current ICE models and end up with a school project sort of attempt.

As for luxury the P85D is USD$105,000.00 before sales tax in relevent state.
Comparing pricing a new starting model Mercedes S550 4MATIC is USD$98,000.00 and the level of build quality between the two models and materials used are poles apart even though Tesla is using some older MB switch grear from what I recall. Size wise they would be more E Class / 5 Series / A6 competitors in my opinion but at their price point I see Tesla trying to compete with the 7 Series, S Class and A8s from Germany. The latter Germans being about 30k less than the S Class.

Again I will say I love them but I'm skeptical of the batteries and the pricing structure. I know what an S class will be worth in 10 years and 20 years but I have no idea what these will be worth.

For example the price difference between the 70D and 85D is USD$10k, basically thats an extra $10k for 15kWh in the battery which is $666.67 per kWh. If you use that figure and work out the battery cost then the base vehicle cost is USD€28,333 which is about what I'd expect for it. I would contest that it is expensive as the Chevy Impala referenced above is a fully functioning vehicle for that price and includes complex electronics which would also be in the Tesla but it also includes an engine and automatic gearbox, both of which are modern complicated systems that are not inexpensive.

Now here is where my issue is, when its 10 years old and batteries have degareded and cells start failing what is it really going to be worth? The 28k Chevy Impala will be worth 3-5k and you can take a punt on it that if you change the oil and maintain it it will keep going but with the likes of the Tesla is it game over??? Do these cars require a shift in thinking, ie drive untill cmplete failure to minimise your cost per Km/Mile or will they be like all modern tech, depreciate like a stone in 5 years plus???

Now back to the battery costs - GM is currently saying that Li-ion is already at $145 per kWh and some articles saying that they are heading towards $100. If those figures are to be believed then the 70D should cost $29k and the 85D $41k based on $150 per kWh yet why are they charging so much? If battery pricing is heading this was is the Tesla and EV market in general due for a major price correction in the future?

Now the charging costs, I've taken this screenshot from Teslas site and picked 300miles as its the max you can select. I also had a Chevy Impala in during the summer when I was there for a week. I had to return it full and I did around 300 miles and I think it cost me around $35 to fill it up to return to the rental company full. These figures tally with the Chevy site for the city mpg for the car so probably accurate enough.

So 300 miles (not sure how achievable that is in everyday driving) in a Tesla is $15.00 versus €35.00, so its about half the price of the ICE but the actual car is 2 or 3 times the price, granted we have service costs with the ICE and there is supposedly none with the EV unless the batteries come into play at some point.


So - after all that its a hard call to make, I think they are still an early adapter product at this stage. Until there are 10/15 year old models out there on the road and a second hand market established with credible market values we won't really know what the true cost per km or mile of running these units will be.

Perhaps I'm missing something so let rip and and show me the light and I might just trade in an ICE for an EV......

Sabre Man

Supercharging is included in the price. That and over the air software updates are two other advantages of owning a Tesla.

traco

Sabre Man wrote: »

Supercharging is included in the price. That and over the air software updates are two other advantages of owning a Tesla.

Supercharging is free where available but not an option at home or work from what I know. An advantage if you have access to them but not a reason to buy one.

Over the air software updates could be a plus or negative depening on your perspective, it also means they are uploading any info the car could have recorded and where its been, how you've been driving it, what you have been browsing etc. Bit big brother ish

As was shown recently on a TV show this tech makes it possibile to hack into the car. This is a potential weak target point with this technology as getting into the cars would give hackers the ability to access Tesla servers.

Warranty on the 85 Kwh is 8 years unlimited mileage until 70% capacity, after 70% the car will still have a range of 170 odd miles.

Because the battery is so large it will rarely see a full cycle, so this battery has potential to last 15 years and possibly 20 years average mileage while being perfectly usable.

The Model S isn't fault free, but tesla are seemingly prompt at repairs.

With the Twin 10 Kw chargers (20 Kw total) and 3 phase supply at home you could easily charge the model S 85-90 Kwh over night , probably in as little as 5 hrs or as fast as the nissan leaf charge the 30 Kwh with the 6.6 Kw charger !

Not saying 3 phase will be common in Irish homes any time soon but it can be done but this is really only if you drive long distance daily, in reality most people will have sufficient charge in the car for when they need it because they won't use 80-90 Kwh daily !

nokia69

traco wrote: »

Again I will say I love them but I'm skeptical of the batteries and the pricing structure. I know what an S class will be worth in 10 years and 20 years but I have no idea what these will be worth.

the batteries will hold up better than most people expect, there are already people with well over 100K miles and their batteries seem fine, you are right about the price its very hard to know how it will hold up over time

traco wrote: »

For example the price difference between the 70D and 85D is USD$10k, basically thats an extra $10k for 15kWh in the battery which is $666.67 per kWh. If you use that figure and work out the battery cost then the base vehicle cost is USD€28,333

there is just no way that Tesla's battery cost is that high, they are closer to $100 per kWh

traco wrote: »

Now here is where my issue is, when its 10 years old and batteries have degareded and cells start failing what is it really going to be worth?

Hard to say, but if Tesla start selling better battery packs then the older cars should hold their value IMO

traco wrote: »

Now back to the battery costs - GM is currently saying that Li-ion is already at $145 per kWh and some articles saying that they are heading towards $100. If those figures are to be believed then the 70D should cost $29k and the 85D $41k based on $150 per kWh yet why are they charging so much? If battery pricing is heading this was is the Tesla and EV market in general due for a major price correction in the future?

most people assume that Tesla have lower battery costs than GM, Tesla charge so much because that was the plan, start at the top of the market and work their way down, so far its working

traco

The cost of getting 3 phase in Ireland is off the chart - as in I have a customer running an electronics manfacturing facility and it worked out cheaper for him to buy a full size 3 phase diesel generator (about the size of a 20ft container) than pay the ESB to bring in a line but thats a whole other topic.

The charging time would not concern me if the packs had the range that the Tesla and if I am ever able to afford a Tesla I have 3 phase at work. The Teslas range is what makes it viable and has me watching with interest as I see it as the first real world electric car. I do big miles, approx 50k kms per year and at a range of 300 miles a Tesla might be viable on 90% of my trips. It might take a little planning but I would think its possible.

However with those mileages I would be charging and cycling the battery between its maxes and that will show up any flaws. Li-Ion is limited to cycles, these may have 1000-1500 cycles designed but I reaslistically have no idea.

I've sold quite a few high powered lithium Ion batterys and seen probably a 10% failure rate. These packs were built by Valance and high tech, it wasn't a big deal when under warranty but at around €800- €1000 per pack its was a major issue when the warranty was over. The ones I dealt with were designed for 800-1000 cycles. In a commercial application where we leased the machines we factored a battery change around 2.5 years as the performance drops off a shelf when they do give up the ghost. If you were to graph it they would loose maybe 5-10% after the first 3 months or so then flat line. When the got to end of the life they would drop to maybe 20% dramatically effectively rendering them useless. Machines would work but they had no ability to dliver high current in a high load sitaution. Trying to dispose of failed Li-Ion cells is no fun as there is no money in recycling them unlike the older metal types. I have a pallet of them that I can't get collected.

The eight year warranty is great but what happens after year 8 and a cell breaks down or several cells break down. I wonder is anyone actually using a Tesla and cycling batteries at high rates? If Mr Musk would like to offer one for such testing I'm his man!!

This is what concerns me about the batteries long term - they will fail, its not a question of if just when and then what happens with the car and its value. What will the cost of a new set of batteries be?

I just tried to search for warranty info and can't see anything to see if there is mileage restrictions. It did throw up an annual service plan at $600 per year and teh ability to extend the warranty on the roadster by a max of 3 additonal years up to 36k miles. That would be just year one in my case but it may not apply to the Model S.

traco

nokia69 wrote: »

there is just no way that Tesla's battery cost is that high, they are closer to $100 per kWh

Sorry - missed your post while I was writing another novel - They quote a 5kWh upgrade for 3k in their options so thats $600 per kWh on that one.

Its a very interesting subject, I'm really pro electric (I'm also a major petrol head) and ideally would have several cars, each one suitable to a specific job but Irelands motoring structure does not facilitate such a solution unfortunately.

nokia69

traco wrote: »

Sorry - missed your post while I was writing another novel - They quote a 5kWh upgrade for 3k in their options so thats $600 per kWh on that one.

Its a very interesting subject, I'm really pro electric (I'm also a major petrol head) and ideally would have several cars, each one suitable to a specific job but Irelands motoring structure does not facilitate such a solution unfortunately.

thats the cost they sell options to the public, thats not what it cost them to build a pack

nokia69

traco wrote: »

This is what concerns me about the batteries long term - they will fail, its not a question of if just when and then what happens with the car and its value. What will the cost of a new set of batteries be?

if you can cycle the pack between 20% and 80% then it will last decades, in a 85kWh model S most people never use the full pack

the cost of batteries will keep falling, in ten years we should be well under $100 per kWh

BoatMad

nokia69 wrote: »

if you can cycle the pack between 20% and 80% then it will last decades, in a 85kWh model S most people never use the full pack

the cost of batteries will keep falling, in ten years we should be well under $100 per kWh

The 20 to 80% thing is really somewhat of a myth It stems from the early years of Li tech , when charging was not as well understood as it is now.

In reality , once you stay within the batteries operating envelope , Li is defined by cycle life. After those cycles are exhausted, the cell will have failed or be failing . Failing results in rapid non linear loss of capacity..

The chemical makeup of the cathode is a major determinant in cycle life.

Excursions outside a Li batteries operating envelope tend to result in loss of capacity rather than reduction in cycle life.

Hence just because you're " easy" on a Li battery , doesn't mean it will last any longer. Even doing nothing an Li battery ages.

To suggest Li batteries may have 10 + years is not backed up by any science I've seen.

nokia69

BoatMad wrote: »

The 20 to 80% thing is really somewhat of a myth It stems from the early years of Li tech , when charging was not as well understood
To suggest Li batteries may have 10 + years is not backed up by any science I've seen.

the 20 to 80% thing is not a myth, temperature is also very important, the chemistry used is also key

this video is very interesting, the professor giving the talk claims that a Tesla pack kept between 20-80% charge will last longer than the car

traco

Interesting vid - too long to watch at the moment but might get a chance tonight. The initial graphs are only showing plots up to 500 cycles or so which is not a lot in my opinion.

As for the 20-80% charging, I think that is a fudge as if you apply that rule then inreality you only have 60% real capacity and now the 270 miles is now 160 miles assuming maximum range all the time which we all know will not happen. Charging 60% all the time will extend the life to 1600 cycles.

Perhaps a better way to look at it is whats the max mile life of a battery? A new unit of miles per kW life: mpkl (maybe someone can come up with a better unit). This value would be very clear to any buyer and would remove all the confusion created by manitaining charges between certian percentages etc?? It would also in aid in battery selection and configuration.
I'm going to assume they are 1000 cycles is the life that the battery has, in reality it is probably more like 500 - 800:
100% - 1000 cycles x 270 max range = 270,000
60% - 1600 cycles x 150 miles = 240,000

If ithe cycle count is on the lower side then you could be looking at 100,000 miles. The Teslas website menetions warrantys and annual service intervals based around 12,000 miles which is 96,000 miles. Is their 8 year warranty based around the 8 x 12k mileage? If so then what happens at 150k miles. To teh best of my knowedge there in actuallt no way to test the remaining life in a cell so until then the next owner is buying in blind faith.

Modern cars should all be well capable of 300k miles plus with original engine and gearbox. If electrics need new packs then that is fine but the costs of replacing should be presented upfront and in a clear manner so that a buyer knows what they are buying. Its interesting that the opening in the vid refernces a Nissan Leaf class action. The timing is also apt as Panoram last night showed that VW could defeat the EU emmissions test and Opel couldn't even pass it in the first place by an independent test lab.

So in 10 years time could the EV's be in a similar position with false claims about battery life etc?

nokia69

there are people who have already done 100K + miles in the model S and their batteries are still OK

my guess is the Tesla warranty is pretty conservative, they know their batteries inside out

The Tesla Model S drive unit warranty has been increased to match that of the battery pack. That means the 85 kWh Model S, our most popular model by far, now has an 8 year, infinite mile warranty on both the battery pack and drive unit. There is also no limit on the number of owners during the warranty period.

The Model S has 8 years unlimited mileage, what more proof do you need in the battery ? this is to 70% capacity after which tesla will replace.

They also offer a brand new battery in 8 years for 8K Dollars when you purchase the car, buy my guess is that you won't want the car after 8 years anyway.

70% capacity still gives 170 odd miles range, still good for most people.

Even the 60 kwh leaf in 2018 will suit the majority of people, 200-240 miles range.

Nissan's current battery in a July built 2013 Leaf has shown to have just over 90% after 100K miles even with a very high number of fast charges, about 1700 It might have lost less with less fast charges.

The 30 Kwh leaf should last a bit longer due to it not being cycled so much and the 60 Kwh should probably last the life of the car.

samih

nokia69 wrote: »

there are people who have already done 100K + miles in the model S and their batteries are still OK

my guess is the Tesla warranty is pretty conservative, they know their batteries inside out

1000 full cycles on a 500 km capable vehicle is 500k km. Just saying like.

samih

samih wrote: »

1000 full cycles on a 500 km capable vehicle is 500k km. Just saying like.

And that's to 70% it will last way longer than that.

cros13

traco wrote: »

I was seriouly conisdering the new Leaf with the 30kWh but at circa €30k and one for €36k I'm thinking I'll stick with used ICE for a while yet.

A 30kWh Leaf starts at €27k including delivery and dealer fees in Ireland. It depends on your annual mileage but if you do more than average it still might be worth it to buy now and upgrade later, because of the difference in running costs. In the US you also need to factor in the €7.5k federal tax credit and state incentives which can be substantial.

traco wrote: »

The tech in them is great but think in reality much of it is standard technology that has been excellently marketed and presented by Tesla.

True, nothing terribly revolutionary. But they do have both the attention to detail and a sole focus on building the best pure EV they can. When it comes to driving dynamics and performance Tesla is mainly getting credit for advantages inherent to any purpose built EV with a big battery. The issue being so far they have the only big battery EV on the market. On the other hand the amount of the high margin premium sedan segment they are capturing in major markets is starting to wake auto industry execs out of their slumber, which is something to definitely give Tesla credit for. The Leaf most probably would not exist without the Tesla Roadster.

The biggest problem ICE manufacturer have is in many cases they are very very short on electrical and electronic engineers with remotely relevent experience or skills to designing and building an EV. They also have the problem of designing and building to a price instead of building something that works better and just tacking on the premium.

traco wrote: »

The Model S interior build quality and finish is average, its nowhere near that of a premium german brand.

That was certainly true of the early model S. However they've constantly improved the interior. I'd call it acceptable for the price point. It's not on par with the 7 series and certainly not the S class, but they are definitely improving it. Tesla make an average of 20 changes on the line a week, so it's unique that an early 2014 vs a late 2014 model S actually has some fairly substantial changes.

traco wrote: »

Size wise they would be more E Class / 5 Series / A6 competitors in my opinion but at their price point I see Tesla trying to compete with the 7 Series, S Class and A8s from Germany. The latter Germans being about 30k less than the S Class.

The Model S is targeted at the 5 series and 6 series. The cheapest Model S start at just under €65,000 including delivery et al. in LHD, and excluding incentives. After incentives in many places like the netherlands int competes directly with the 5 series. They are stealing a fair amount of S class, 6/7 series sales but mainly they are pulling buyers up to a price point they would not normally consider. In many countries they are now outselling the 7 series and S class.

traco wrote: »

Again I will say I love them but I'm skeptical of the batteries and the pricing structure. I know what an S class will be worth in 10 years and 20 years but I have no idea what these will be worth.

Tesla guarantees the trade-in value up to the end of the warranty. I wouldn't be too worried about the battery, especially given what aging looked like on the roadster and the Smart fortwo packs Tesla built.

traco wrote: »

For example the price difference between the 70D and 85D is USD$10k, basically thats an extra $10k for 15kWh in the battery which is $666.67 per kWh.

Tesla's production price per kWh is below €200/kWh for finished packs. I'd expect the economies of scale and vertical integration of the Gigafactory to drop prices a much as 30%. Speaking to someone at panasonic (who are paying 40% of the build cost of the Gigafactory) they implied they'd have no trouble getting to €100/kWh for cells before 2020.
LG has stated cell cost of €145/kWh.

traco wrote: »

Do these cars require a shift in thinking, ie drive untill cmplete failure to minimise your cost per Km/Mile or will they be like all modern tech, depreciate like a stone in 5 years plus???

I think once the longer range EVs hit they market for 2nd hand EVs will be very strong. In particular because nobody will have a hope of meeting the demand for new vehicles. Everyone is going to be severely production limited for years because there is no way battery production will be able to scale. In 2014 90 million cars were built worldwide (according to OCA). With the gigafactory at full tilt (which it won't be until 2019/2020) we could just about reach 1.2 million EVs per year if we used every scrap of global lithium ion cell production.

I'd be very surprised if Tesla doesn't get 250,000 deposits for the model 3 a year before production starts.

The packs will eventually age (and when they lose 70% the rate of age quicker). 1. that not a huge problem if you are buying a 20 year old vehicle to run to the shops, older used cars tend to have lighter duty cycles. ANd , the other factor is that in 20 years a replacement pack is going to be a heck of a lot cheaper. Will it be worth replacing the pack in a 15/20 year old model S? probably not is my bet.

traco wrote: »

then the 70D should cost $29k and the 85D $41k based on $150 per kWh yet why are they charging so much?

Tesla has a 25-30% margin on the Model S. $170/kWh is a more realistic estimate of their current cell price (not finished pack), and then you need to account for the fact they don;t have the economies of scale of larger automakers and have to spread the cost of tolling etc a lot thicker. They are also rapidly building out production capacity and as a result incurring costs traditional car manufacturers were able to spread over decades of profitable operation.

traco wrote: »

Now the charging costs, I've taken this screenshot from Teslas site and picked 300miles as its the max you can select. I also had a Chevy Impala in during the summer when I was there for a week. I had to return it full and I did around 300 miles and I think it cost me around $35 to fill it up to return to the rental company full. These figures tally with the Chevy site for the city mpg for the car so probably accurate enough.

You've left many of the assumptions in place on the calculator. In Ireland, my cost per kWh is around 7 cents and diesel/petrol is around $1.50 per liter. There are basically no servicing costs. In practice based on my experience with my existing two EVs running costs are between 10-12 times lower for an EV vs an ICE. In the US it would typically be two to three times cheaper in rough alignment with your figures. Don't use your current per kWh cost, check for a time of use tariff, because in the real world that what most people get.

traco wrote: »

Supercharging is free where available but not an option at home or work from what I know. An advantage if you have access to them but not a reason to buy one.

True, 90-95% of your charging will be at home or work. The biggest plus with the superchargers is that they exist, they are generally in good locations where you don't mind stopping anyway and a 120-135kW charging rate makes long journeys practical.

traco wrote: »

Over the air software updates could be a plus or negative depening on your perspective, it also means they are uploading any info the car could have recorded and where its been, how you've been driving it, what you have been browsing etc. Bit big brother ish

Most modern cars do that anyway. In almost all cases they allow you to turn off location tracking etc. OTA updates are overwhelmingly a plus. if I wanted to track you your cellphone gives me more data and more opportunity. But again... you can turn that stuff off.

traco wrote: »

As was shown recently on a TV show this tech makes it possibile to hack into the car. This is a potential weak target point with this technology as getting into the cars would give hackers the ability to access Tesla servers.

Tesla's computer security is excellent, and I state as an expert in the field. Not perfect but well beyond everyone else. A recent hack presented at defcon required physical access to the car, provided very limited access and was patched in the entire fleet over the air by Tesla the day of the presentation.

My BMW i3 for example was not encrypting data sent back and forth to connecteddrive over the cell modem with little protection and they have the same issue that tesla patched but easier to exploit with no patch even planned, Nissan's security is generally worse and GM's is worse again. Car companies are 10-15 years behind the rest of the world in terms of security. Tesla is where other companies need to get.

I brought my i3 in for a firmware update today... it takes a dealer visit, 5 hours and €200. They don't even tell you what fixes the update contains. That's the traditional car experience.

traco wrote: »

The cost of getting 3 phase in Ireland is off the chart - as in I have a customer running an electronics manfacturing facility and it worked out cheaper for him to buy a full size 3 phase diesel generator (about the size of a 20ft container) than pay the ESB to bring in a line but thats a whole other topic.

At the time of install (depending on where the install is) there is usually not much cost difference (particularly in urban areas). The issue is that when you want it retrofitted they basically charge you not only full whack for essentially a new install. In addition they can also charge you a proportion of their network build cost they would not be able to charge you by law for a new install.

traco wrote: »

I do big miles, approx 50k kms per year and at a range of 300 miles a Tesla might be viable on 90% of my trips. It might take a little planning but I would think its possible.

I do the same kind of mileage on my i3. 29,000km on her since March. And my old leaf (an mk1.5) lost around 1% of capacity for every 30,000km.
Nissan has said the new 30kWh will age at half the rate.

traco wrote: »

these may have 1000-1500 cycles designed but I reaslistically have no idea.

Tesla has generally given a number of ~3000 cycles. Though I suspect they are taking a bet that battery replacement will be cheap enough in a few years that they can honor the warranty for very high mileage users.

traco wrote: »

I just tried to search for warranty info and can't see anything to see if there is mileage restrictions. It did throw up an annual service plan at $600 per year and teh ability to extend the warranty on the roadster by a max of 3 additonal years up to 36k miles. That would be just year one in my case but it may not apply to the Model S.

No mileage restrictions whatsoever. However the 8 year warranty only applies to the powertrain and battery. The rest of the car is on a 3 year warranty, though you can extend that to the full 8 years anytime within the 3 years. Tesla's own guidance is that the "servicing" is entirely optional. The current production model S powertrain (excluding the battery) supposedly has a design life of 1 million km, up from 300k in the early production versions.

traco wrote: »

Its interesting that the opening in the vid refernces a Nissan Leaf class action.

The Nissan Leaf class action was over the 1 st gen pack in hot climates. AFAIK everyone involved was moved to the Gen 1.5 pack and had no further complaints.

TL;DR :P

traco

cros13 wrote: »

A 30kWh Leaf starts at €27k including delivery and dealer fees in Ireland. It depends on your annual mileage but if you do more than average it still might be worth it to buy now and upgrade later, because of the difference in running costs. In the US you also need to factor in the €7.5k federal tax credit and state incentives which can be substantial.


I do the same kind of mileage on my i3. 29,000km on her since March. And my old leaf (an mk1.5) lost around 1% of capacity for every 30,000km.
Nissan has said the new 30kWh will age at half the rate.

Tesla has generally given a number of ~3000 cycles. Though I suspect they are taking a bet that battery replacement will be cheap enough in a few years that they can honor the warranty for very high mileage users.

No mileage restrictions whatsoever. However the 8 year warranty only applies to the powertrain and battery. The rest of the car is on a 3 year warranty, though you can extend that to the full 8 years anytime within the 3 years. Tesla's own guidance is that the "servicing" is entirely optional. The current production model S powertrain (excluding the battery) supposedly has a design life of 1 million km, up from 300k in the early production versions.

The Nissan Leaf class action was over the 1 st gen pack in hot climates. AFAIK everyone involved was moved to the Gen 1.5 pack and had no further complaints.

TL;DR :P

Thanks for taking the time to put that reponse together, theres a lot of info in it and I struggle with the multi quote stuff so I'll just touch on the relevent points.

Re Leaf - If I was in the office all the time the Leaf might suffice but the chances of being there and then getting a call and ending up in Cork, Belfast, Galway a few hours later is a regular thing. Some weeks I'd only do 600-800kms other weeks I could be well over 1500kms. For that reason a Tesla is a possibilty at a stretch but the Leaf just wouldn't have the range. My current ICE has a range of 600 miles and I moan about that cos I hate pulling in when on the road. However thats me just being awkward.

The Model S I was in was April 2015 in Miami, I hadn't been in one prior to that and the Impala was a few months later so all very current models for comparison pirposes. But all credit to them if they are improving things at that rate. The Tesla has all the standard stuff but its materials and fit and finish was not that of a luxury marque.

I'm not sure I agree about the ICE electrical engineers, 75% of my customers are electronic automotive suppliers and they have some very high tech products, some are even innovatine for the EV market specifically. I totally concur with you about building to a price and if it were left to engineers only nothing would ever make it to market as once built it can always be improved on and the cycle becomes never ending. Teslas approach has been spot on in that regard, build it to be electric from the start.

I work with automation machines and software, hardware and software in my experience can often decide not to play. Hence the OTA upgrades make me a little nervous in case it one day decided to take the hump and wanted to become a toaster instead of a car after an upgrade. However if thats the way it is I suppose you just run with it. As for tracking - I wish I had something to hide.

The gigafactory could be the "killer app"; the cars coupled with the Powerwall should create the demand needed and then the scale should drive costs down. This will be interesting to see over the coming years how it impacts price.

The Cash price of the 70D is USD75k which at todays rate is approx 75 euro. The UK site (GBP£55k) coverts to €78k at thier VAT rate so probably 80 at our rate and I don't know if there is VRT on electric. ROS site wasn't quoting any models when I last looked. So I reckon the base model here would be very close to €85k on the road. That puts the entry level model right up at the higher end of the 5/A6/E Class. I can see why people would consider them, if I was in that market and doing 20k kms per year I'd go for one and would be pulled up the price bracket as you mentioned.

Spending time in the states I see loads of them, one state I was surprised at seeing so many was Florida. I'd expect to see them in California with so much cash and silicon valley tech etc. However seeing them in FL, crossing the alley with virtually nothing for 100 miles I was very impressed. The temps and humidity in FL in the summer are nasty and will stress any battery to the max.

3000 cycles is massive and if they are achieving that then that is amazing. As for post 8 year warranty period; the reason I am curious about that is my own circumstances. I currently do not buy new, I will buy used and then drive it until I get sick of it or repair becomes unviable. That gives me the lowest possible cost per km/mile. The last passat I had went with almost 300k miles on it. Failed the NCT for rust on wheel arches even though engine and gearbox were fine and I couldn't be bothered to fix it.

So based on that model I would be keeping this type of car for a considerable period so I reckon not factoring in a new set of batteries would be foolish. Mad_Lad said that after 8 years they will sell you a new battery pack for 8k, if that is true then then adding an extra 1k per year in terms of annual runnings costs is tiny and the Model S is a real contender for rep use. If the pack is 50k well then its another story entirely.

I'm back over the pond next week so if I have time I might do some tyre kicking. I might ask them how they would consider quoting a lease based on 35k miles a year as opposed to the standard 12-15k that they currently offer in the US.

Thanks for the post - very informative

BoatMad

nokia69 wrote: »

the 20 to 80% thing is not a myth, temperature is also very important, the chemistry used is also key

this video is very interesting, the professor giving the talk claims that a Tesla pack kept between 20-80% charge will last longer than the car

I watched the video all the way through , he makes no such claim about 20-80% charging, either you didn't watch it or you don't understand the basis of that video ( which is about precision columetric measurements as a way of predicting long term cycle life effects )

In fact other then mentioning Tesla in passing , he initially focused on how Nissan picked the very wrong chemical composition for batteries in elevated temperature , where you dont actively manage the temperature

The graph you show , represent electrolyte interaction , i.e. essentially parasitic reactions that ultimately result in a LI batteries failure. It has nothing to do with 20-80 charge ( and it shows the addition on Vinyl carbonate in damping electrolyte reactions )


This is the trouble with LI, the average person comments but doesnt understand

To summarise

1. Excessive voltage stress during charging causes lithium plating of the anode , typically this regarded as greater then 4.2-4.3 volts for most Li chemistries

2. What is determined as 100% charge is purely a function of what the charger manufacture "decides " is called 100%. Typically these are called charge exit strategies. in Li, either terminal voltage or more typically terminal voltage plus a current that has fallen below a certain value ( typically 1-5% of capacity in amps ) . Hence 100% is a " defined " value.

3. The battery temperature , especially ambient , of course has a ,major part of play, in essence high temperature promotes excessive parasitic reactions and causes anode loss. ( and hence decreased intercalation)

4. 20% limit is a discharge limit , again for various reasons , Li tech looses capacity if allowed to be over discharged ( andy must be subject to a different and very cautious recharge) ( unlike say NiMH), again the "limit" is set by the manufacturers by programming the battery monitoring system to cut battery discharge at a predetermined point.

5. Hence both 20%-80% discharge /charge points are purely arbitrarily


SO, in designing a charge and discharge strategy, A manufacturer will automatically design the charging system to limit discharge to 20% and recharges to somewhere around 80%. SO if you then charge to 80% you have a battery with 80% of 80% capacity. ( Note that in a RAW battery, where you are doing uncontrolled charging, yes 80% is a safe bet, but thats entirely different , thats what a charger designer is working to, not you as a charge user)

There is no appreciable degradation in charging , with a few designed BMS system in going to 100%, part of the myth arose from Tesla strategy ( with a fully thermally managed battery) of allowing you to go further up the charging cycle before cutoff.

Nissan, with no thermal management, have to have a very conservative charge cycle, especially if they want to claim long life. They do have such a cycle, tapering starts very early on in the charge cycle.and the terminal voltage is set just under 4.2, which is conservative

The fact is Li batteries operated within their design envelope, have a cycle life almost exclusively defined by chemistry. It matters little how you charge and discharge them ( within certain parameters, very high C has some edge conditions)

SO in reality the user of an EV, assuming the manufacturer has done his job right , has very little effect on the lifecycle of a Li battery. The battery will fail when it has consumed its cycle life and thats that.

Hence the main thing a User can so , is to subject his or her batter/EV to a few as possible cycles as possible , consistent with the parasitic shelf life of Lithium in general.

What Nissan do expose the battery to, is uncontrolled temperature excursions, which DO affect cycle life, but since most of us cant control the weather, there isn't a whole lot we can do about that .

Again, I would contend that manufactures claiming 10+ years, are simply " hoping", until we have a body of real data from the field, we will not be able to substantiate those claims

This is where people saying things like " my car has 100Km and the battery is fine:" are utter meaningless. Lithiums are all about effective charge discharge cycles over time and you have to look at that detail to determine whats actually happened.