Sat 13th Sept

qc3 · 12-09-2014 9:57pm #1

Sat Pricewise.

Back 12-1 Kings Fete to take off for Moore

The Ladbrokes St Leger (3.50 Doncaster) has enjoyed a renaissance in recent seasons and this year’s race is continuing the trend.
Take out Australia and Postponed and I can’t really think of a staying
three-year-old colt in Britain or Ireland who would enhance today’s contest.

The key horse is obviously Kingston Hill, who stayed on all the way to the line when second in the Derby and has a class edge over nearly all of his rivals on that form.

The evidence of that run suggests he should stay the 1m6½f without any problems and, while the ground would ideally have a bit more dig in it for him, it shouldn’t really prove too much of a hindrance.

However, he has been on the go for a long time as he was prepared for the 2,000 Guineas in May and the St Leger often goes to a horse who is peaking at the end of the season rather than the horse with the best form.

There are quite a few candidates this year, but the one horse who could take off and prove himself a top-class performer is Sir Michael Stoute’s supposed second string Kings Fete.

He has always been highly regarded by the Stoute yard and the money this week suggests there is not much between him and Snow Sky, who was second in the Great Voltigeur last time.

The key to his chance will be whether or not he settles off what looks likely to be a fair pace because he won’t get home if he pulls as hard as he has in previous races.

However, you have to like the fact Ryan Moore takes over for the first time, with James Doyle having chosen Snow Sky.

Moore would undoubtedly have had loads of options in the race, but he has plumped for Kings Fete and I think he is the one horse who could prove a lot better than he has shown so far.

Scotland stays well and could hit the frame, while Hartnell also has a chance.

He thrashed a few of these at Newmarket two starts ago and, like plenty of his trainer Mark Johnston’s horses, simply didn’t run his race at York last time.

Paul Hanagan doesn’t have a ride in the St Leger, but he could win all the other televised races at Doncaster as he’s on all the favourites.
Estidhkaar has an attitude to die for and the ability to match, so I will be disappointed if he doesn’t win the At The Races Champagne Stakes (2.05), while Aljamaaheer is the clear form choice back on faster ground in the OLBG Park Stakes (3.15).

I’m convinced Muthmir didn’t run his race in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood, maybe due to the draw and maybe due to the race coming too quickly for him, but there can be no excuses in the Ladbrokes Portland Handicap (2.40) as he has lots in his favour.

The drop back in trip will suit too, and I can see him starting at 3-1, so he is reasonably priced at 6-1.

However, he has precious little in hand of Out Do on previous York form and David O’Meara’s charge seemed to improve a lot for the headgear when winning the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last time.
Out Do cruised through the race that day and seemed to win with a lot in hand, and he could be one of those O’Meara sprinters who takes off now his confidence is up.

The other one who is improving fast and looks worth backing is Compton Park.

He didn’t like the undulations at Ripon two starts ago but bounced back at Thirsk last time.

He has shot up the handicap but was really impressive at Thirsk and, while this is much harder, he is too big a price given the form he’s in.

In Ireland I expect both Group 1s to go to Aidan O’Brien.
Tapestry has really found her form now and, with a strong pace likely, I can see her winning back at a mile in the Matron (5.45), while it’s impossible to oppose Australia in the Irish Champion (6.50) as he is probably a good few lengths better than he showed at York last time.

Today's bets

Compton Park
2.40 Doncaster
1pt win at 14-1 generally

Out Do
2.40 Doncaster
1pt win at 12-1 generally

Kings Fete
3.50 Doncaster
1pt win at 12-1 with Coral (10-1 generally)

Already advised
Granddukeoftuscany

3.50 Doncaster 1pt win at 25-1

Peintre Celebre · 13-09-2014 12:06am

Jillnextdoor on her lowest ever mark and is one that will strike soon. Didnt stay last time and her run behind Inxile the run before that was better than the bare result in a race that was much stronger than this off four pounds higher. She is hard to win with but was only beaten a head in a good Goodwood handicap last summer off five pounds higher. By Henrythenavigator she is a good moving filly that likes fast ground and her o ly other start at Bath she was beaten a neck off a higher mark. 18/1 is ten points too big this represents a good bet. Persevere with her next two or three starts I think she's ready to win

rossom · 13-09-2014 2:02am

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Jillnextdoor on her lowest ever mark and is one that will strike soon. Didnt stay last time and her run behind Inxile the run before that was better than the bare result in a race that was much stronger than this off four pounds higher. She is hard to win with but was only beaten a head in a good Goodwood handicap last summer off five pounds higher. By Henrythenavigator she is a good moving filly that likes fast ground and her o ly other start at Bath she was beaten a neck off a higher mark. 18/1 is ten points too big this represents a good bet. Persevere with her next two or three starts I think she's ready to win

Think you might be on to something here. Career low mark, non trier LTO over too far. Has course form, smallish field should suit and they should go like the clappers which should be ideal. Mick Channon had a 5 timer on Thursday so horses clearly in belting form and 18s way too big a price.

If not today, I'll be keeping an eye on her for the reapplication of visor/addition of blinkers if they want to get her mark down further.

Francie Barrett · 13-09-2014 7:24am

Making the trip up to Leopardstown and I suspect it's going to be a day for the O'Brien's as it looks like he's got his best ammunition held back for today.

racso1975 · 13-09-2014 8:42am

Enjoy Francie. Hope ya have a profitable day.

DylanAFC · 13-09-2014 9:18am

Does anybody know what time the pricewise selections are released? Went out yesterday evening to back Kings Fete @ 14s only to find out when I got to the shop he was 10s.

Peintre Celebre · 13-09-2014 9:26am

DylanAFC wrote: »

Does anybody know what time the pricewise selections are released? Went out yesterday evening to back Kings Fete @ 14s only to find out when I got to the shop he was 10s.

Think 8 for the iPad the night before

Goldcupfav · 13-09-2014 9:31am

Heading to Leopardstown myself today. Like tamadhor in the first K.P horses at going really well atm. Think parish hall will surprise a few over the mile today. In the leger I've backed a snow sky and windshear reverse forecast. Anyone with a spare tickets for today send pm to me.

Mgoraf · 13-09-2014 9:50am

Gone for romsdal in the ledger. Think Kingston Hill is very opposable today really don't fancy him.

Backing intrinsic ew as well pp paying five places.

Peintre Celebre · 13-09-2014 9:50am

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Heading to Leopardstown myself today. Like tamadhor in the first K.P horses at going really well atm. Think parish hall will surprise a few over the mile today. In the leger I've backed a snow sky and windshear reverse forecast. Anyone with a spare tickets for today send pm to me.

Parish Hall the only one I fancy at Leop. Will love this ground and plenty have questions to answer. GLB has won at a mile but never looked convincing and won't get away with it today I reckon and Darwin is now rated 119 but has never looked that good until last time. 8 runners makes it a nice each way price at 16/1

Harry Angstrom · 13-09-2014 11:28am

DylanAFC wrote: »

Does anybody know what time the pricewise selections are released? Went out yesterday evening to back Kings Fete @ 14s only to find out when I got to the shop he was 10s.

The bookies usually get first access to the Pricewise selections. It gives them a chance to shorten them up before the punters get involved

mailburner · 13-09-2014 12:23pm

placed double of kingston hill and muthmir works out at 2.87 (Betv)

really can't see either being out of the frame

Peintre Celebre · 13-09-2014 12:59pm

I can see no reason why Mutumir is shorter than Intrinsic. People can be blinded by what they want to happen as opposed to confirmed form. I could be setting myself up to look like an idiot here but Intrinsic won with more than four pounds in hand last time

shmeee · 13-09-2014 1:01pm

I tipped Bocca Baciata up here LTO and was backed off the boards, goes again today in the 3.35 Leopardstown and they are hoping to take it today. 7/2 into 5/2 this morning.

Harry Angstrom · 13-09-2014 1:04pm

Hoping the fav can defy his penalty here. Hannon's got some lovely 2yo's this season.

jimjamcos · 13-09-2014 1:16pm

Impressive performance that. Hannon clearly rates Ivawood higher so says a lot about him too

andyman · 13-09-2014 1:22pm

I'm on Dusky Queen in this one.

Harry Angstrom · 13-09-2014 1:42pm

Muthmir Group class.

mailburner · 13-09-2014 1:43pm

impressive by muthmir considering how the race panned out for him

TheMilkyPirate · 13-09-2014 1:43pm

Whoooosh

Peintre Celebre · 13-09-2014 1:46pm

Blew them away. Not sure what horse turned up the last day

mailburner · 13-09-2014 1:46pm

all the more incredible looking at it again

Harry Angstrom · 13-09-2014 1:49pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Blew them away. Not sure what horse turned up the last day

Stewards Cup probably came a bit quick after he won at York. He mightn't have been suited to Goodwood either.

Backstreet Moyes · 13-09-2014 1:57pm

shmeee wrote: »

I tipped Bocca Baciata up here LTO and was backed off the boards, goes again today in the 3.35 Leopardstown and they are hoping to take it today. 7/2 into 5/2 this morning.

Fella who is usually alright gave me a tip for him but 5/2 in that kind of race i can't back him.

mailburner · 13-09-2014 3:02pm

mailburner wrote: »

placed double of kingston hill and muthmir works out at 2.87 (Betv)

really can't see either being out of the frame

asking myself why I backed them in singles along with this and didnt
do a win double

win treble with mustajeeb though

Backstreet Moyes · 13-09-2014 3:15pm

John F Kennedy done that well enough.

razorhead · 13-09-2014 3:30pm

Free Eagle supposedly pulling up trees at home. Time will tell......

abarkie · 13-09-2014 4:18pm

razorhead wrote: »

Free Eagle supposedly pulling up trees at home. Time will tell......

It looked that way to me

Champion Stakes next?

sdoc13 · 13-09-2014 4:18pm

razorhead wrote: »

Free Eagle supposedly pulling up trees at home. Time will tell......

Wow serious.

Harry Angstrom · 13-09-2014 4:29pm

Smullen wants to go to Ascot. Weld will probably want to put him away for the amateur handicap at Galway next summer :pac:

Gringo180 · 13-09-2014 4:49pm

Sooner the better Spencer retires he is a disgraceful jockey.

Harry Angstrom · 13-09-2014 4:52pm

I'd be surprised if Billy Lee doesn't get a holiday after that. He went for half a gap and knocked Joseph out of the way.

mailburner · 13-09-2014 5:12pm

Mustajeeb home and hosed if the betting is to be believed, hard enough to see past it

don't fancy glb or darwin myself, think tonto might be a bigger danger

Harry Angstrom · 13-09-2014 5:55pm

Howjoe1 · 13-09-2014 5:57pm

Poor ride Joseph. Went too soon and picked off by the master Ryan Moore

andyman · 13-09-2014 5:57pm

Well. That was unexpected.

Ryan Moore has beaten the top middle-distance three olds of both sex's this year then.

UrbanFret · 13-09-2014 5:58pm

No surprise there. Another coolmore hyped up donkey stuffed. And some were wondering why he wouldn't run in the arc.:o

Peintre Celebre · 13-09-2014 6:00pm

Ryan Moore didnt beat him. I said last time how poorly Hughes was on him just watch it again, he let Australia get first run and he was never going to get near him. It was a shocking ride

boomtown84 · 13-09-2014 6:10pm

Pit stop in the last?

FIVE2_THREE · 13-09-2014 6:12pm

UrbanFret wrote: »

No surprise there. Another coolmore hyped up donkey stuffed. And some were wondering why he wouldn't run in the arc.:o

I trust the you made a killing laying him right ?

Mgoraf · 13-09-2014 6:22pm

Double derby and international winner a donkey lol...

He's probably run half a furlong further than the winner why JOB had him that wide is a mystery

mailburner · 13-09-2014 6:30pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Ryan Moore didnt beat him. I said last time how poorly Hughes was on him just watch it again, he let Australia get first run and he was never going to get near him. It was a shocking ride

you were right, backed him that day myself
today the first day since the dante that I didnt get involved sadly

mailburner · 13-09-2014 6:31pm

paddy paid out on australia on all ap bets up till 10am yester/thurs, not sure which

that is good news

UrbanFret · 13-09-2014 6:40pm

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

I trust the you made a killing laying him right ?

What has that got to do with coolmore hyping up an average horse! He has never performed to anything above a rating of 125 in my opinion and never will. It's O brien that's going around saying he's the best he's trained and he wasn't right at york you will see the real Australia today. All Bull****!

FIVE2_THREE · 13-09-2014 6:47pm

UrbanFret wrote: »

What has that got to do with coolmore hyping up an average horse! He has never performed to anything above a rating of 125 in my opinion and never will. It's O brien that's going around saying he's the best he's trained and he wasn't right at york you will see the real Australia today. All Bull****!

Once again people reading way too much into what the trainer says. Muhammad Ali said he was the greatest of ALL TIME!!! how much stock do you put into that? as Far as Australia being an average horse that could't be further from the truth how many "average horses" win two Derbies ?

UrbanFret · 13-09-2014 6:53pm

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

Once again people reading way too much into what the trainer says. Muhammad Ali said he was the greatest of ALL TIME!!! how much stock do you put into that? as Far as Australia being an average horse that could't be further from the truth how many "average horses" win two Derbies ?

Oh come on the 2nd derby he won was akin to a morning gallop at ballydoyle. Ali was a better boxer than Australia is a racehorse to boot.

mailburner · 13-09-2014 6:55pm

australia is very good no doubt about that but so is the grey gatsby
dont think folks are giving the winner enough credit

FIVE2_THREE · 13-09-2014 7:05pm

UrbanFret wrote: »

Oh come on the 2nd derby he won was akin to a morning gallop at ballydoyle. Ali was a better boxer than Australia is a racehorse to boot.

May I suggest that you take your winning that you made from laying Australia today. head over to the sales to purchases a horse and see if it's easy to win an Irish Derby. I guarantee your opinions will change.

jimjamcos · 13-09-2014 7:52pm

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

May I suggest that you take your winning that you made from laying Australia today. head over to the sales to purchases a horse and see if it's easy to win an Irish Derby. I guarantee your opinions will change.

Be fair, he's correct, the Irish Derby was as poor as we've seen. In fairness to him, the English Derby had one other horse in Kingston Hill who could go onto better but that was no great field either. He won well against the elders in Juddamonte but, be honest, has he ever given you the visual impression of a true world beater, a horse who was beating those fields at his ease? He didn't put distance between himself and KH in Derby, and his Juddamonte was not near as comfortable as reported with TGG left with a lot to do before staying on. Australia is a very good horse, a proper Grp1 animal, but now beaten 3 times he's no superstar. The only superstar in training is the mighty Kingman!

FIVE2_THREE · 13-09-2014 7:57pm

jimjamcos wrote: »

Be fair, he's correct, the Irish Derby was as poor as we've seen. In fairness to him, the English Derby had one other horse in Kingston Hill who could go onto better but that was no great field either. He won well against the elders in Juddamonte but, be honest, has he ever given you the visual impression of a true world beater, a horse who was beating those fields at his ease? He didn't put distance between himself and KH in Derby, and his Juddamonte was not near as comfortable as reported with TGG left with a lot to do before staying on. Australia is a very good horse, a proper Grp1 animal, but now beaten 3 times he's no superstar. The only superstar in training is the mighty Kingman!

This is reminiscent of the people who call boxers and other athletes bums. it's easy to stand on the sidelines and judge.

jimjamcos · 13-09-2014 8:48pm

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

This is reminiscent of the people who call boxers and other athletes bums. it's easy to stand on the sidelines and judge.

Hyperbe. Nobody's saying he's a seller but if you think the Derbies he won were strong, well you need to pull your head out of your ass. Not every race/horse has to be glossed over because uneducated people such as fans are not entitled to comment. You'll go far with that opinion, a real open mind you have there..

Sat 13th Sept

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