The FSA Draft -Chat and Banter.

Menas

roryc wrote: »

For those that wonder why I curse my luck... in the first draw I ended up 15/20. In the second I'm 16/20! Hopeless

I reckon 11 and 11 is the worst possible outcome.

OneColdHand

Trigger Happy wrote: »

I reckon 11 and 11 is the worst possible outcome.

Exactly. If you're low in the draw you at least get one of the best strikers.

PARlance

Trigger Happy wrote: »

I reckon 11 and 11 is the worst possible outcome.

9th and 11th here....

roryc

Disagree, as goalkeeper and strikers offer the fewest strong options so you really need to be up early to have a chance with these. I got the 6th choice of defenders but would happily have taken the 15th in return for a better keeper! Same for midfielders, I'll get the 16th choice which will be useless by the time it gets around to me, and the advantage of having 5th choice striker is not massive as Aguero, Falcao, Costa and Sturridge will obviously be gone! Ideally you would be as high as possible in both rounds (unless you get drawn 17th-20th in the second and can pick one of the top 4 strikers).

Still a great idea although I don't hold much hope of my gang of misfits getting anywhere! Sh*t keeper, good defender, sh*t midfielder and probably Rooney!!

PARlance

roryc wrote: »

Disagree, as goalkeeper and strikers offer the fewest strong options so you really need to be up early to have a chance with these. I got the 6th choice of defenders but would happily have taken the 15th in return for a better keeper! Same for midfielders, I'll get the 16th choice which will be useless by the time it gets around to me, and the advantage of having 5th choice striker is not massive as Aguero, Falcao, Costa and Sturridge will obviously be gone! Ideally you would be as high as possible in both rounds (unless you get drawn 17th-20th in the second and can pick one of the top 4 strikers).

Still a great idea although I don't hold much hope of my gang of misfits getting anywhere! Sh*t keeper, good defender, sh*t midfielder and probably Rooney!!

You're really a glass half empty kinda guy

I would much prefer 5th striker, 16th midfielder over my 11th, 9th selection.
I think you've gotten one of the best draws this time around.
There are far more options in midfield than there are up front. There are 2-3 very good/good options in the top 5 or 6 teams. Then you'll have a pretty good returner from 4 or 5 of the mid table teams.
The drop off between premium strikers to the rest is big. At 5th, you'll be getting a premium striker imo.

roryc

PARlance wrote: »

There are far more options in midfield than there are up front. There are 2-3 very good/good options in the top 5 or 6 teams. Then you'll have a pretty good returner from 4 or 5 of the mid table teams.
The drop off between premium strikers to the rest is big. At 5th, you'll be getting a premium striker imo.

I think top 4 and you will have a great shout - as I said, Falcao, Aguero, Sturridge, Costa. Any of these could be top scorer this season. After this there is a big drop, and its arguable who would even be the 5th choice. Rooney, Naismith, Jovetic, Adebayor, Ballotelli, Van Persie, Welbeck. 16th is easily the worst position to be in! I will happily swap with anyone!

PARlance wrote: »

You're really a glass half empty kinda guy

I do so much study and work around 'luck' due to my job that its hard not to look at most situations as being one or the other. I've definitely fallen on the wrong side of it this time! Hopefully I get a healthy serving of it with my 4 rejects to ensure I don't finish too close to bottom!

CSF

roryc wrote: »

I think top 4 and you will have a great shout - as I said, Falcao, Aguero, Sturridge, Costa. Any of these could be top scorer this season. After this there is a big drop, and its arguable who would even be the 5th choice. Rooney, Naismith, Jovetic, Adebayor, Ballotelli, Van Persie, Welbeck. 16th is easily the worst position to be in! I will happily swap with anyone!



I do so much study and work around 'luck' due to my job that its hard not to look at most situations as being one or the other. I've definitely fallen on the wrong side of it this time! Hopefully I get a healthy serving of it with my 4 rejects to ensure I don't finish too close to bottom!

What do you do? If thats not too personal a question to ask

Mr.Prodston

It's funny how we all look at things. I'd class having the 20th choice forward as quite the blow, I'm aware that Hazard will soften that blow considerably but there are a lot more performing midfielders than forwards. I'm shocked Mert was left on the table as 17th pick in defenders so you'll never know who'll get overlooked.

Sure it's all a bit of fun really and not much we can do once it starts anyway.

Menas

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

It's funny how we all look at things. I'd class having the 20th choice forward as quite the blow, I'm aware that Hazard will soften that blow considerably but there are a lot more performing midfielders than forwards. I'm shocked Mert was left on the table as 17th pick in defenders so you'll never know who'll get overlooked.

Sure it's all a bit of fun really and not much we can do once it starts anyway.

Even the picking players is a bit of craic IMO!

Injuries will play a big part in this draft. Once a player is in your team you are stuck with him until the transfer window. And there are only two transfer windows.
Heck, RvP could get injured this weekend and some poor soul could be stuck with him for 6 weeks.

PARlance

roryc wrote: »

I think top 4 and you will have a great shout - as I said, Falcao, Aguero, Sturridge, Costa. Any of these could be top scorer this season. After this there is a big drop, and its arguable who would even be the 5th choice. Rooney, Naismith, Jovetic, Adebayor, Ballotelli, Van Persie, Welbeck. 16th is easily the worst position to be in! I will happily swap with anyone!



I do so much study and work around 'luck' due to my job that its hard not to look at most situations as being one or the other. I've definitely fallen on the wrong side of it this time! Hopefully I get a healthy serving of it with my 4 rejects to ensure I don't finish too close to bottom!

I'd have expected you to study the form a bit more In most seasons there's generally a pattern of one top scorer that is out ahead of the pack, but he is usually followed by a fairly close group of 5,6,7 other strikers and they are normally covered by a 2-3 goal blanket.

Haven't researched that myself mind you but I'm pretty sure it'll stack up.

OneColdHand

Trigger Happy wrote: »

Even the picking players is a bit of craic IMO!

Injuries will play a big part in this draft. Once a player is in your team you are stuck with him until the transfer window. And there are only two transfer windows.
Heck, RvP could get injured this weekend and some poor soul could be stuck with him for 6 weeks.

That's why I think having 6 players each is better than 4. If we only have 4 players, 1 long term injury could do serious damage to a team.

roryc

CSF wrote: »

What do you do? If thats not too personal a question to ask

I work in the gambling industry, mainly in poker but involved with some other skill games too. Part of my job involves liaising with gambling commissions in various countries to ensure we are acting legally, especially in regulated markets. Many of the smaller regulatory bodies feel the need to have you statistically prove how much luck is a contributing factor in a certain game. I usually use the example of chess being 100% skill and 0% luck, while a lottery is 100% luck and 0% skill. Poker is probably 90-95% skill, in that anybody can realisitically win a tournament on a given day but over the course of time skill will come out on top. Same goes for fantasy football, although I would guess the luck factor is considerably higher due to there only being 38 gameweeks in a season. My rival last year proved its possible to run good for 38 weeks! We're through 3 weeks this year and he's all but given up...

You can almost be guaranteed on any given week the top scorer is not a decent player, just someone that had ridiculous luck!

PARlance wrote: »

I'd have expected you to study the form a bit more In most seasons there's generally a pattern of one top scorer that is

I agree, but at the moment there is a clear top 4 strikers that would be in most peoples minds. 5th choice would vary from person to person, hence there is a big advantage to being 17-20. As you say though its just a bit of banter, not something I would put money on though due to luck playing such a big part!

Swiper the fox

Somebody is holding up the show again, probably not their fault but I reckon we need to stick to the 2 hour rule between 9 and 9 unless somebody makes prior excuses

F1ngers

Swiper the fox wrote: »

Somebody is holding up the show again, probably not their fault but I reckon we need to stick to the 2 hour rule between 9 and 9 unless somebody makes prior excuses

It's a three hour rule - it's being watched.

Mr.Prodston

F1ngers wrote: »

It's a three hour rule - it's being watched.

There's about 20 minutes for Dahat otherwise Slingerz is up if my calculations are correct

F1ngers

Mr.Prodston wrote: »

There's about 20 minutes for Dahat otherwise Slingerz is up if my calculations are correct

Your calculations are indeed correct.

EDIT:
What I would like to see would be another time reduction to two hours and another to one hour for subsequent no shows.

For example, Dahat had three hours(almost up) and it will be Slingerz turn, who I think should be down to two hours(five hours total), if (s)he is a no show, then each subsequent person should only have one hour to pick their player.

Three hours resets when a selection has been made.

Or am I over complicating things?

CSF

roryc wrote: »

I work in the gambling industry, mainly in poker but involved with some other skill games too. Part of my job involves liaising with gambling commissions in various countries to ensure we are acting legally, especially in regulated markets. Many of the smaller regulatory bodies feel the need to have you statistically prove how much luck is a contributing factor in a certain game. I usually use the example of chess being 100% skill and 0% luck, while a lottery is 100% luck and 0% skill. Poker is probably 90-95% luck, in that anybody can realisitically win a tournament on a given day but over the course of time skill will come out on top. Same goes for fantasy football, although I would guess the luck factor is even higher due to there only being 38 gameweeks in a season. My rival last year proved its possible to run good for 38 weeks! We're through 3 weeks this year and he's all but given up...

You can almost be guaranteed on any given week the top scorer is not a decent player, just someone that had ridiculous luck!




I agree, but at the moment there is a clear top 4 strikers that would be in most peoples minds. 5th choice would vary from person to person, hence there is a big advantage to being 17-20. As you say though its just a bit of banter, not something I would put money on though due to luck playing such a big part!

That 90-95% poker luck stat doesn't seem right. Probably not for this thread though. Interesting job nonetheless.

roryc

CSF wrote: »

That 90-95% poker luck stat doesn't seem right. Probably not for this thread though. Interesting job nonetheless.

Haha apologies I was writing that too quick, edited now. Meant to say 90-95% skill! Decent article here if you're interested.

CSF

roryc wrote: »

Haha apologies I was writing that too quick, edited now. Meant to say 90-95% skill! Decent article here if you're interested.

Might have a look later (just finishing up at work now), Thanks. I was gonna say. Even the 90-95% seems a little high on the flipside though or maybe that is me substituting luck for my poor decisions.

Anyway, probably not for here.

roryc

If you stick Phil Ivey heads up against a novice in 1,000 H2H matches, how many do you think he would win? Easy way to look at it! Agreed though, not really a discussion for here.

F1ngers

roryc wrote: »

If you stick Phil Ivey heads up against a novice in 1,000 H2H matches, how many do you think he would win? Easy way to look at it! Agreed though, not really a discussion for here.

That's the same as a coin toss - 50-50.
I'm shoving all day long H2H with him. :P

roryc

F1ngers wrote: »

That's the same as a coin toss - 50-50.
I'm shoving all day long H2H with him. :P

And you think that makes it a coin toss!?

Anyway, who's up next in the Draft?

OneColdHand

roryc wrote: »

And you think that makes it a coin toss!?

Anyway, who's up next in the Draft?

This is what's going on in the draft thread:

Swiper the fox

Dahat has picked somebody who was already picked,:eek: quick get him back:p

Swiper the fox

The bollócks changed it and now I look like a fool:o:P

Mr.Prodston

Swiper the fox wrote: »

The bollócks changed it and now I look like a fool:o:P

It's ok I saw it

dahat

Swiper the fox wrote: »

Dahat has picked somebody who was already picked,:eek: quick get him back:p

Hahaha... Ninja edit on my part though technically I picked Di maria while DID maria was picked!

PARlance

Com'on lads, I'm out golfing in the morning

Swiper the fox

I'll be hitting the hay quite early as well tonight, there's 4 to go before me so hopefully we'll see some ore movement soon. Lucas hood is next up

PARlance

The Whole Year Inn: think you just skipped Nuts 102 there