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Post-Tropical Cyclone BERTHA
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01-08-2014 8:53am#1
000
WTNT43 KNHC 010321
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier
this afternoon and evening indicated that the well-defined low
pressure system located about 250 nmi east-southeast of Barbados had
surface winds of about 40 kt north and northeast of the center.
Since the departure of the aircraft, a band of deep convection has
developed near and to the north and east of the low-level center,
and now has enough organization to consider this system a tropical
cyclone.
The initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Bertha is moving along
the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge located to the
north based on earlier dropsonde data obtained by a NOAA
Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. The NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement on the cyclone maintaining a general west-northwestward
motion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest after that through 96 hours. By Day 5, Bertha
is expected to turn northward as it moves around the western portion
of the ridge. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly
north of the consensus model, TVCA.
The environment surrounding Bertha is not particularly favorable
for significant strengthening during the next two days due
to modest westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture. However,
the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an
upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The
resultant increase in instability could allow for some slight
strengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone
clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the
SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less
than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the consensus model ICON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 12.3N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.2N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 14.5N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.1N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.9N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 26.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 32.0N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart0
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One to watch folks!!
Close to the Bahamas is (soon to strengthen to hurricane) Bertha, this will head east across the Atlantic this week and could affect the weather over the UK at the end of the weekend into the start of next week. But a lot of uncertainity as it is a long way off, still way out west, plenty of forecast paths and model solutions which will change a lot over this week. There is a chance of wet and windy weather from the SW linked to the remnants of this system but we've got plenty of other weather coming at us before that. And Bertha could go south and miss us all together. Remember we don't get hurricanes in the UK , although we can get exceptional (hurricane force) winds in Autumn storms. Keep an eye on the forecasts this week0 -
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droidman123 wrote: »Only the uk? Would this not affect ireland as well? Surely we would be first in the firing line?
Of course yeah ! , though you know what english weather providers when it comes to mentioning us lol :rolleyes:
I have a feeling this will change A LOT before the date , but as always its exciting to watch the developments either way
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Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,707 Mod ✭✭✭✭
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Quote the Eagle just now, on the 7.55 forecast on RTE Radio 1:
'...showers die down for the weekend as a major storms passes to the south of us.'
He sounded very confident??? It's only Monday!!!
The Express says different...http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/495557/UK-weather-forecast-tropical-storm-bertha-from-bahamas-to-hit-Britain
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Quote the Eagle just now, on the 7.55 forecast on RTE Radio 1:
'...showers die down for the weekend as a major storms passes to the south of us.'
He sounded very confident??? It's only Monday!!!
The Express says different...http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/495557/UK-weather-forecast-tropical-storm-bertha-from-bahamas-to-hit-Britain
The forecast is based on the ECM, and the latest ECM shows the remnants of Bertha passing to our south at the moment. It's several days away so the track could change more northerly, or it could end up fizzling out over the Atlantic and not being anything noteworthy at all.0 -
maquiladora wrote: »It's several days away so the track could change more northerly, or it could end up fizzling out over the Atlantic and not being anything noteworthy at all.
True. Latest GFS run at +120 hrs is already pushing it north. Wouldn't be a pleasant Sunday if it turned out to be accurate though.....
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The problem here would be flooding potential. This air is sub tropical and laden with moisture. It's up in the air right now
but there is that risk that at some stage on Saturday evening, night some very heavy rain could occur and it's something that needs watching.
The 12z GFS is an outcome
The other outcome is it goes south altogether.
I wouldn't justify media coverage with a response tbh.0 -
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RED L4 0TH wrote: »6Z GFS run. Moving to the south again.
Gusts of up to ~110km/h for Cornwall there if that verified.0 -
maquiladora wrote: »Gusts of up to ~110km/h for Cornwall there if that verified.
50 knot wind arrow on the mean speeds chart west of the Cornish coast.0 -
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