**CAO Points Discussion 2014 - predictions and aftermath**

Raspberry Fileds

It's that time of the year again when Ireland's preposterous third level entry system allocates places.

Round One offers - 18th August (closing date: 25/08)
Round Two offers - 27th August (clsoing date: 03/09)

caopointschecker.com is an excellent resource for analysing points trends.

It's important to note that there is a general trend of inflation in LC points, so it's to be expected that that would be replicated in course entry requirements:

Median ≥400 (%) ≥500 (%)
2000 300 24.8 5.7
2013 335 43.4 9.7
% Increase 12 75 70



Has anyone got any thoughts or predictions?

I'll start with an easy one: since 2005, Theoretical Physics in TCD has alternated between increasing and decreasing and has done so by an average of thirty-five points each year!



TP decreased last year, and coupled with the rise of Mathematics in TCD (increased from 415 in 2009 to 550 in 2013), I see it increasing to 530+.

The Hpat scores for Medicine substantially decreased this year. In 2013, the eightieth percentile was 178 and the ninetieth 196; in 2014, the equivalent scores were 170 and 180. Hpat doesn't release comprehensive data, so it's difficult to gauge what effect that'll have on the points for medicine. Although there was a decrease of around 5% in the number applying for Medicine, it seems likely that there'll still be a drop of around 10 points.

And, last, I think (given an increase in first preferences of ~10%) that Engineering will increase across the board, with it getting very close to 500 in UCD.


Commiserations in advance to anyone who doesn't get their course. It happened to me; I was utterly disconsolate; I repeated, got the course that I had originally wanted, but hated it and ended up transferring to one I could have done with my initial score. It hurts for a while, but you very soon reappraise your situation and become content with it; though it feels like it might, the pain doesn't last for very long!

xLisaBx

I think caopointschecker is a bit misleading. Trends going up and down in past years don't really reflect the demand for this year

Aarong9224

DC120 has been increasing by 20 points every year for the past few years , i presume it will rise from 370 to 390 this year but i cant see it reaching 400

Mario95

Aarong9224 wrote: »

DC120 has been increasing by 20 points every year for the past few years , i presume it will rise from 370 to 390 this year but i cant see it reaching 400

I was looking at different computer courses and the rate at which their points increase is slowing down (2012-2013) relatively to their stable points growth of 2010-2012.
I am hoping that this year we will not see much increase in points for computer related courses.

Badwulf

A while a go I seen something posted that basically showed the increases/decrease in how many people applied for certain courses THIS YEAR in 2014 (example medicene went up by 9.9 percent I think?) can anyone link me this again?

Raspberry Fileds

Badwulf wrote: »

A while a go I seen something posted that basically showed the increases/decrease in how many people applied for certain courses THIS YEAR in 2014 (example medicene went up by 9.9 percent I think?) can anyone link me this again?

http://www2.cao.ie/app_stats/pdf/appstats01feb2014.pdf

Badwulf

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

ww*w2.cao.ie/app_stats/pdf/appstats01feb2014.pdf (without the asterisk)

Ok now what section would the course "GA775" fall under in this? :L engineering/technology?

PLL

Oh I knew this thread was coming. I feel nothing but worry as the course I want I have enough points for if it doesn't go up.. which it will. I can feel it.

6thyearlife

Do people think occupational theraphy will rise and what points might i have a chance of getting in with including the DARE scheme?

xLisaBx

6thyearlife wrote: »

Do people think occupational theraphy will rise and what points might i have a chance of getting in with including the DARE scheme?

Yes, it will rise. 40% increase in those applying for OT, Physio and nutrition sorry to tell you. Your dare scheme should stand to you if you're close

HauntedGhost

Will Commerce in NUIG rise much? Last year it was 375

Badwulf

Anyone know if "computing in software development" in GMIT will go up?

randylonghorn

No, we won't know until first round offers are out.

People can guess, but it's just guessing.

Ompala

I never got how CAO points worked, I do Chemical Engineering in UL, in 2011 it was 400 points and 6 people were on the course, 2012 it was 480 points and 9 were on the course, and for 2013 it was 420 and 19 were on the course, anyone explain that one to me?

Raspberry Fileds

Ompala wrote: »

I never got how CAO points worked, I do Chemical Engineering in UL, in 2011 it was 400 points and 6 people were on the course, 2012 it was 480 points and 9 were on the course, and for 2013 it was 420 and 19 were on the course, anyone explain that one to me?

The "points" of a course is equal to what the lowest scorer who was offered a place got (they need not have accepted - ie everyone in unfilled year may have scored higher).

In the case of the course you mention, there was a large spread of points-scores: the medians for the three years were (from '11-'13) 525, 540, and 505.

I'm not entirely sure what you find surprising. But if, through lack of demand, there's no competition for places, the lowest score (which decides the "points") could be as low as the equivalent of the minimum entry requirements.

Mario95

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

I'm not entirely sure what you find surprising.

Ompala wrote: »

I never got how CAO points worked, I do Chemical Engineering in UL, in 2011 it was 400 points and 6 people were on the course, 2012 it was 480 points and 9 were on the course, and for 2013 it was 420 and 19 were on the course, anyone explain that one to me?

I don't really know what's causing UL to change their amount of places so randomly. Its as if they were trying to artificially control the minimum points.

FHB

Mario95 wrote: »

I don't really know what's causing UL to change their amount of places so randomly. Its as if they were trying to artificially control the minimum points.

They were probably just increasing the number of places on the course due to increasing demand.

Raspberry Fileds

Mario95 wrote: »

I don't really know what's causing UL to change their amount of places so randomly. Its as if they were trying to artificially control the minimum points.

Well, what would their aim be? Ceteris paribus, increasing number of places will reduce the points requirement. So if it were that, it's been a complete failure! As I said in my previous post, it's possible that there wasn't enough demand to fill the course in '11. I don't know when colleges notify CAO of the number of places on their courses, but maybe UL expanded the one in question because of application stats showing increased demand.

Cakes.

I just realised my first two courses both jumped over 30 points last year...

Feeling kinda sick

Anybody else here for German and/or Irish in Trinity or Applied Languages in UL?

lauracarroll

6thyearlife wrote: »

Do people think occupational theraphy will rise and what points might i have a chance of getting in with including the DARE scheme?

I'm applying for OT too - really hope it doesnt jump too much, got my points in the mocks but still can't help but worry!! There's been a massive increase in applicants this year so it's predicted to rise quite a bit unfortunately.

EoghanIRL

I think dentistry in ucc should drop .
It wasn't full for the last two years and each year it wasn't full it dropped.
http://www.careersportal.ie/courses/coursedetail.php?course_id=136#.U-jwgY29Kc0

555/560 maybe ?

xLisaBx

biomedical science in ucc and cit? am I the only one clinging to the hope of it dropping as it dropped by 5 points last year haha?

peekachoo

xLisaBx wrote: »

biomedical science in ucc and cit? am I the only one clinging to the hope of it dropping as it dropped by 5 points last year haha?

I'm hoping it drops too

To like... 500.


20 point decrease isn't very likely though :pac:

Ompala

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

The "points" of a course is equal to what the lowest scorer who was offered a place got (they need not have accepted - ie everyone in unfilled year may have scored higher).

In the case of the course you mention, there was a large spread of points-scores: the medians for the three years were (from '11-'13) 525, 540, and 505.

I'm not entirely sure what you find surprising. But if, through lack of demand, there's no competition for places, the lowest score (which decides the "points") could be as low as the equivalent of the minimum entry requirements.

Whoops totally forgot to ever reply to this :pac:
I never understood it cos it was literally never explained to us
We were more or less told to try and get as many points as you possibly could and then just pray twas enough, trying to see patterns or predicting never really came into the equation

Can I ask where you got those figures from? You've sparked my curiosity

Dunno really what the story is with UL and points these days, Maths and Physics did some crazy jumping in the last few years

2011 390
2012 535
2013 480

xLisaBx

peekachoo wrote: »

I'm hoping it drops too

To like... 500.


20 point decrease isn't very likely though :pac:

This is me exactly.. its not gonna happen realistically though

Raspberry Fileds

Ompala wrote: »

Can I ask where you got those figures from? You've sparked my curiosity.

The Minimum Points by Year gives the final (ie minimum) CAO score and the median for each course

Brien O Brien

Anybody know will the points for business in UL (LM050) increase or decrease. I am so worried

Hollister11

My course dropped -30 last year.
Hope I get it

Ciaran511

My first choice (DT398) has been increasing by 5 points each year since it was introduced so I'm just assuming it will increase by 5 again this year!

Calvin

First choice BIS UCC increased by ~30 last year and has been increasing over the last 2-3 years..hoping for a drop tho!

teotihuacan

Wooo Theoretical Physics. It's class. :pac:

Ompala

Anyone else see the articles in the irish independent today about people unhappy with choices after they leave school?
Though it was very poor taste to publish it the day before results come out with offers only around the corner
Students will be worried enough without needing to see stuff like that on the front page

FlushEk

Folks, you can all have your assumptions but fact is results are out tomorrow and you'll all soon know the craic.

Raspberry Fileds

FlushEk wrote: »

Folks, you can all have your assumptions but fact is results are out tomorrow and you'll all soon know the craic.

No one's assuming; they're predicting.

Shane15

Can you check your results at midnight tonight online? Or do you have to wait until tomorrow?

Raspberry Fileds

Shane15 wrote: »

Can you check your results at midnight tonight online? Or do you have to wait until tomorrow?

The online facility is only activated at midday tomorrow. I don't know whether it's to encourage people to go into their schools, but it seems senseless to me.

Hollister11

Shane15 wrote: »

Can you check your results at midnight tonight online? Or do you have to wait until tomorrow?

Tomorrow at mid day.

Mr. G

Mario95 wrote: »

I was looking at different computer courses and the rate at which their points increase is slowing down (2012-2013) relatively to their stable points growth of 2010-2012.
I am hoping that this year we will not see much increase in points for computer related courses.

CS in UCC jumped 90 points last year all of a sudden.

Aragneer

I know I'm not usually a part of this board but I was three years ago. I just want to wish you all good luck with the results and also, if you have problems with your course, for example if you get the points but still don't get in, do NOT hesitate to ring them! I had the same problem and I got in due to a mistake on THEIR system so seriously, fight for it if you have problems!

Anyway...As a person going into my last year, I thought I'd be all 'wise' and **** and wish you all the best of luck I am sure you will get what you want

Now...no more sloppiness!

FlushEk

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

No one's assuming; they're predicting.

lol k.

HelenAnn

Got 555 (how???) and my first choice, Human Health and Disease in TCD, was 535* last year so hoping I've a chance of getting in ... so many people seem to have this course down on their CAO this year though ... just hoping the points won't shoot up!

Joey!!

Anyone have any thoughts on what the points will be for BESS this year?

EoghanIRL

I have 580 points . Anyone have any views on the points for dentistry . Think I will be safe with 580?

Lollipop95

well I had applied for events management with public relations in gmit and got over 30 points for entry requirement but I didn't get enough for maths I got a D2 when I needed a B2. Pretty ****ty. I got 250 points and had arts as first choice as my level 8, cut off last year was 300 and it ain't gonna drop 50 points
really wish I had gotten the b2 in foudation maths tbh don't even know what I'll get offered now on Monday! I have an interview for a plc on the 27th August..I have humanities in Carlow Down as a CAO option aswell and I got over the points requirement for that too. God the gmit is a sickener when I got the points but not the grade though!!

Raspberry Fileds

Joey!! wrote: »

Anyone have any thoughts on what the points will be for BESS this year?

Everything points to an increase: points trend - average increase of five points each year since 2008; increased numbers receiving Bonus Points for passing Higher Maths; ~5% increase in demand for Business courses.

Joey!!

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

Everything points to an increase: points trend - average increase of five points each year since 2008; increased numbers receiving Bonus Points for passing Higher Maths; ~5% increase in demand for Business courses.

Damn I got 495 and the minimum points last year was 495

Raspberry Fileds

Joey!! wrote: »

Damn I got 495 and the minimum points last year was 495

It's entirely possible that it will remain as was. It is likely that the additional students taking Higher Maths are significantly less likely to be scoring 495 (ie top 10% of cohort). I think because of the size of the course, Second Round offers for BESS are often slightly reduced on First Round.

There's still hope

rainbowtrout

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

The online facility is only activated at midday tomorrow. I don't know whether it's to encourage people to go into their schools, but it seems senseless to me.

If the system was activated at 9am this morning, every student in the country would have logged on at the same time and it would have probably crashed. So delaying it is probably a good idea. Those that need to use it will actually be able to access it at 12 without issue.

rainbowtrout

EoghanIRL wrote: »

I have 580 points . Anyone have any views on the points for dentistry . Think I will be safe with 580?

Final points for UCC last year was 570 with random selection. It should be enough.

Is Dental Science just another name for Dentistry in Trinity? Was 575 on random selection last year.

randylonghorn

rainbowtrout wrote: »

If the system was activated at 9am this morning, every student in the country would have logged on at the same time and it would have probably crashed. So delaying it is probably a good idea. Those that need to use it will actually be able to access it at 12 without issue.

Plus I think it's a better idea that people go to their school to collect their results tbh.

At least, if there is a complete head-wrecking shock for someone, there is someone to talk to about options, there is some bit of support available.

Raspberry Fileds

rainbowtrout wrote: »

If the system was activated at 9am this morning, every student in the country would have logged on at the same time and it would have probably crashed. So delaying it is probably a good idea. Those that need to use it will actually be able to access it at 12 without issue.

There are several ways of mitigating that: activating at, say, 4am; allowing students to request that their results be e-mailed to them; etc.