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Fair play to Pearse Doherty

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    #62
    tayto lover
    Registered Users Posts: 51,652 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    The post is McWilliams pointing out how useless the ESRI is. What's who likes or doesn't like him got to do with it?

    Exactly. I posted the same post and they tried to blacken Mc Williams just because he was right.


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    #63
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    No actual science has such lack of predictive powers. Having simple mathematics is not enough, the maths had to actually work - has to predict the future. Physicists don't get nobels for theorising but when the theories are proved.

    Let's follow the argument to its logical conclusion. Is it your contention that we could replace every economist in the world with a random number generator - better yet, a physicist - with no negative outcomes to the world's economy?


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    #64
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    Let's follow the argument to its logical conclusion. Is it your contention that we could replace every economist in the world with a random number generator - better yet, a physicist - with no negative outcomes to the world's economy?

    No it would probably be better. Obviously with the physicist. But probably a monkey. Or anybody down in the pub.


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    #65
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    Here's more from that article.

    "For example, in December 2005 — when the odd non-establishment maverick was saying the economy would crash — the ESRI produced a long-range forecast (similar to the one it produced this week), which was supposed to tell us where we would be by 2010.
    According to its “worst-case scenario”, Irish GDP would be €196,876m; in fact, it is €166,345m. At worst, according to the ESRI, our debt-to-GDP ratio would be 16pc; by 2010 it was actually 66pc and rising rapidly.
    It forecast that the 2010 Budget deficit would be, at worst, 0.3pc GDP; it was, in fact, 14.3pc of GDP."

    Maybe a drunken monkey.


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    #66
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    No it would probably be better. Obviously with the physicist. But probably a monkey. Or anybody down in the pub.

    Ah, OK. Sorry, I thought for a second we were having a serious conversation. My mistake - you're just mouthing off.

    Carry on.


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    #67
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    I am totally serious about this. Science has to be predictive. The best Irish economists couldn't predict a bust but people on the Internet could tell that a housing bust was imminent ( hat tip - SE England is going to bust). They were off in some calculations by orders of magnitude. That's not science.

    Doherty is right to question these muppets - the entire field is a sham.


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    #68
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    Ah, OK. Sorry, I thought for a second we were having a serious conversation. My mistake - you're just mouthing off.

    Carry on.

    No I am being totally serious. Economics is not a science. I am treating it as not a science. I am saying that it - like other non-sciences - can't legitimately play credentialism. That's like theologians dismissing Dawkins because he hasn't read enough theology. I have also clearly demonstrated that the actual body we are taking about can't predict anything.

    There is no mouthing off. The ESRI is not credible.


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    #69
    Mardy Bum
    Registered Users Posts: 3,674 ✭✭✭Mardy Bum


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    Here's more from that article.

    "For example, in December 2005 — when the odd non-establishment maverick was saying the economy would crash — the ESRI produced a long-range forecast (similar to the one it produced this week), which was supposed to tell us where we would be by 2010.
    According to its “worst-case scenario”, Irish GDP would be €196,876m; in fact, it is €166,345m. At worst, according to the ESRI, our debt-to-GDP ratio would be 16pc; by 2010 it was actually 66pc and rising rapidly.
    It forecast that the 2010 Budget deficit would be, at worst, 0.3pc GDP; it was, in fact, 14.3pc of GDP."

    Maybe a drunken monkey.

    Yes the ESRI should have realised that the US would let Lehman Brothers sink and in the process set off the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression which affected most of the world as a result.

    McWilliams is no Morgan Kelly. He is a publicity merchant.


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    #70
    tayto lover
    Registered Users Posts: 51,652 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    Ah, OK. Sorry, I thought for a second we were having a serious conversation. My mistake - you're just mouthing off.

    Carry on.

    The dying kick.


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    #71
    Mardy Bum
    Registered Users Posts: 3,674 ✭✭✭Mardy Bum


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    No I am being totally serious. Economics is not a science. I am treating it as not a science. I am saying that it - like other non-sciences - can't legitimately play credentialism. That's like theologians dismissing Dawkins because he hasn't read enough theology. I have also clearly demonstrated that the actual body we are taking about can't predict anything.

    There is no mouthing off. The ESRI is not credible.

    Economics is a social science like psychology and sociology.
    Do you trust psychologists?


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    #72
    JRant
    Registered Users Posts: 12,853 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    The biggest problem that I see with the ESRi is that they still believe in this myth of sustainable growth.

    If we take a modest prediction of 2% growth we get a doubling time of 35 years. So in 35 years we will have consumed twice as much of the resources as we have consumed in our entire history to date.

    A simple understanding of basic maths shows what a fallacy the whole thing is.

    How, or more importantly why, are academics not able to understand simple exponential functions?

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



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    #73
    tayto lover
    Registered Users Posts: 51,652 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Mardy Bum wrote: »
    Yes the ESRI should have realised that the US would let Lehman Brothers sink and in the process set off the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression which affected most of the world as a result.

    McWilliams is no Morgan Kelly. He is a publicity merchant.

    Is that "soft landing" Morgan Kelly ?


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    #74
    Mardy Bum
    Registered Users Posts: 3,674 ✭✭✭Mardy Bum


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Is that "soft landing" Morgan Kelly ?

    You have no idea about economics or economists do you?


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    #75
    tayto lover
    Registered Users Posts: 51,652 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Mardy Bum wrote: »
    You have no idea about economics or economists do you?

    BUT i'm learning from all you experts and your economist friends.:pac:
    I might even apply for party membership.


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    #76
    TheHappyChappy
    Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭TheHappyChappy


    Great to see all the sheep still here

    Not many with much economic imagination to think beyond ESRI propaganda

    The stupid Irish will need a few more tough economic lessons IMHO


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    #77
    Mardy Bum
    Registered Users Posts: 3,674 ✭✭✭Mardy Bum


    tayto lover wrote: »
    BUT i'm learning from all you experts and your economist friends.:pac:
    I might even apply for party membership.

    Here is a link to some teaching material from UCD related to macroeconomics and econometrics. Now if you want to learn something and inform yourself have a gander.


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    #78
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #79
    tayto lover
    Registered Users Posts: 51,652 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Mardy Bum wrote: »
    Here is a link to some teaching material from UCD related to macroeconomics and econometrics. Now if you want to learn something and inform yourself have a gander.

    Did any of our disgraced "experts" read this stuff?


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    #80
    Banjo String
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭Banjo String


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    Same reason as cows do.

    (outstanding in their fields)


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    #81
    macscoob
    Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭macscoob


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Did any of our disgraced "experts" read this stuff?
    Yeah........ Pearse Dotherty


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    #82
    flutered
    Registered Users Posts: 6,675 ✭✭✭flutered


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    I am totally serious about this. Science has to be predictive. The best Irish economists couldn't predict a bust but people on the Internet could tell that a housing bust was imminent ( hat tip - SE England is going to bust). They were off in some calculations by orders of magnitude. That's not science.

    Doherty is right to question these muppets - the entire field is a sham.

    as a person who was one told to commit sucide by the then t-sshock i am in agreement with doherty this time.


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    #83
    alastair
    Registered Users Posts: 19,307 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    But back to the ESRI. Highly credentialed economists.

    David McWilliams has a go.

    http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/09/07/esri-has-been-getting-its-forecasts-wrong-for-years

    And the same man only a couple of months earlier:
    In the boom many of us economists said and wrote silly things (myself included) now it is better if we collectively stop flinging mud at each other, not least because we should all be on the same side.

    That side, as I see it, is explaining to the citizens (and each other) what is going on as best we can, in order to educate and inform so that this never happens again. I realize that there are various ways of doing this and my own chosen method is not to everyone’s taste. But thats hardly matters.

    For example, this website is the best thing to have happened economics in Ireland in a long time and but when it descends into a slagging match, its currency becomes devalued.

    The ESRI made mistakes, who hasn’t?

    So let’s be generous not petty.


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    #84
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Frank Lee Midere wrote: »
    No I am being totally serious.

    You're being "totally serious" in your assertion that every economist in the world could be replaced by a random number generator, a monkey or a bloke down the pub without any negative consequences?

    That's a lot worse than mouthing off.


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    #85
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    On the basis of plausibility and elegance. There is no economic theory I'm aware of that has anything approaching the kind of 'proven' status you find in the sciences, never mind mathematics. Even the basic underlying assumptions of economic theory are mostly unproven.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #86
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #87
    Chips Lovell
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,268 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    Its curious Doherty is labelling the ESRI as government mouthpieces in a week where the divergence in the outlook of the ESRI and the government has been noted. As reported in the Irish Times:
    Mr Noonan’s endorsement of the unwavering demand for a €2 billion adjustment next year reflects concern in his department to avoid giving line Ministers the impression that they can slacken the effort to assert control over the public finances.

    This conservative approach is mirrored in the department’s update of its own official forecast for economic growth, which is appreciably below the forecast set out last week by the ESRI.

    If they were in cahoots, you'd think they'd get their stories straight.


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    #88
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »
    Its curious Doherty is labelling the ESRI as government mouthpieces in a week where the divergence in the outlook of the ESRI and the government has been noted. As reported in the Irish Times:



    If they were in cahoots, you'd think they'd get their stories straight.

    You won't need to wait too long. As soon as Doherty realises that the Government wants more austerity against the advice and forecasts of the ESRI, he will be castigating Noonan for not listening to what the ESRI says. The man flies with the wind and hasn't a thought of his own.


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    #89
    JRant
    Registered Users Posts: 12,853 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »
    Its curious Doherty is labelling the ESRI as government mouthpieces in a week where the divergence in the outlook of the ESRI and the government has been noted. As reported in the Irish Times:



    If they were in cahoots, you'd think they'd get their stories straight.

    It makes sense for the DoF to plan for worst. They can then lavish praise upon themselves if even slight above target.

    I do love the politic speak in the DoF statement. Using Adjustment instead of cuts to make their actions seem more palatable.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



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    #90
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #91
    Frank Lee Midere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,780 ✭✭✭Frank Lee Midere


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    On the basis of plausibility and elegance. There is no economic theory I'm aware of that has anything approaching the kind of 'proven' status you find in the sciences, never mind mathematics. Even the basic underlying assumptions of economic theory are mostly unproven.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    In fact I am teaching myself undergraduate economics. It's utterly unscientific.


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