Fair play to Pearse Doherty

tayto lover

Pearse Doherty has come out and criticised the ESRI over their predictions on the economy. He branded them as Government mouthpieces.
I am not a supporter of Sinn Fein but I agree 100% with him on this.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0411/608186-esri-expects-economic-growth-to-remain-strong/

Sinn Féin finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty has said he hopes the ESRI forecasts materialise in terms of growth and unemployment.

However, if they do materialise, it will be the first time ever because, he said, the ESRI has got it so wrong for many years.

The ESRI has been a cheerleader for Government austerity, he said.

He claimed it has given the Government cover to unleash its austerity programme by referencing ERSI reports, which said there would be economic growth in the last number of years.

Mr Doherty said this never materialised.



Hard to disagree with him on this.

comongethappy

Indeed he has a point.

Luckily for Ireland though, we are unlikely to have Sinn Feinn at the wheel making these decisions any time soon.

Godge

tayto lover wrote: »

Pearse Doherty has come out and criticised the ESRI over their predictions on the economy. He branded them as Government mouthpieces.
I am not a supporter of Sinn Fein but I agree 100% with him on this.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0411/608186-esri-expects-economic-growth-to-remain-strong/

Sinn Féin finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty has said he hopes the ESRI forecasts materialise in terms of growth and unemployment.

However, if they do materialise, it will be the first time ever because, he said, the ESRI has got it so wrong for many years.

The ESRI has been a cheerleader for Government austerity, he said.

He claimed it has given the Government cover to unleash its austerity programme by referencing ERSI reports, which said there would be economic growth in the last number of years.

Mr Doherty said this never materialised.



Hard to disagree with him on this.

So he is saying that the ESRI said that austerity would lead to growth and the government imposed austerity and now that we are seeing growth resuming in the economy following the imposition of austerity that the ESRI are wrong.

I lost him in the logic.

Very strange analysis to say the least.

hfallada

Without austerity the country would have been bankrupt or several generations of future tax payers would be paying for this generations poor management of the economy. Cuts had to be made and taxes increased.

There were 60k jobs created last year and there is no reason why 50k cant be created this year. I cant remember the last time there was a major loss announcement in the news. But there is tons for new jobs being created. Our growth rates are kinda BS. I study economics and the one thing that is hammered into you is GDP and GNP are greatly different in Ireland. No other country in the world has a such a big difference. GNP is the goods and services produced by Irish owned firms and individuals and not the multinationals.

ERSI are predicting growth by Irish owned firms. 3.5% isnt unreasonable considering how well Irish exports are doing aboard and the fact that the Irish economy is growing. Dublin has very few empty shops in the city center.

Sinn Finn arent want I would call a pro-business party. I dont think any of them have any strong knowledge on how to run a business or anything relating to economics. I cant see Sinn Finn being a party that foreign multinationals would like in power. And without multinationals Ireland is kinda screwed

maccored

i think what hes saying is they have a habit of predicting growth and then later having to downwardly adjust that prediction. Funny we're hearing about soft budgets to come, as theres an election soon.

tayto lover

Godge wrote: »

So he is saying that the ESRI said that austerity would lead to growth and the government imposed austerity and now that we are seeing growth resuming in the economy following the imposition of austerity that the ESRI are wrong.

I lost him in the logic.

Very strange analysis to say the least.

He's saying that the ERSI rarely gets it right and he is correct.

Mardy Bum

tayto lover wrote: »

He's saying that the ERSI rarely gets it right and he is correct.

If Charlie McCreevy and Ahern had listened to the esri way back in the early 00s the country would be a very different place.

ardmacha

tayto lover wrote: »

He's saying that the ERSI rarely gets it right and he is correct.

Does the Sinn Féin economic forecasting unit do better?

tayto lover

ardmacha wrote: »

Does the Sinn Féin economic forecasting unit do better?

I don't know. I know very little about them but I think Pearse is right on his opinion of the ESRI.
I know the FG one does not though. They are on a par with the FF one.

Mardy Bum

tayto lover wrote: »

I don't know. I know very little about them but I think Pearse is right on his opinion of the ESRI.
I know the FG one does not though. They are on a par with the FF one.

He is not right though. He is using it to score political points. The same way Bertie slagged them off when they told him to hold up on the spending. Any economic research body will for the most part encourage prudence especially in the case where we cannot control interest or exchange rates.

Good loser

tayto lover wrote: »

He's saying that the ERSI rarely gets it right and he is correct.

John Fitzgerald said the forecasts mean the budgets can be easier from now on - Isn't that Pearse's line i.e. less austerity?

Usually the guy talks a lot but makes very little sense.

Muahahaha

For me the ERSI showed themselves up as nothing more than a government mouthpiece a couple of years back when one of their researchers (a Dutch guy I think) published a paper outlining how staying on the dole and drawing benefits was a more incentivised option financially than actually looking for work. When he ran the figures of several people in different situations he found that by and large the extra money you get for working over claiming the dole really isn't worth it for most people when the costs of going to work are taken into consideration. He was basically saying that a minimum wage worker gets €350 for a 40 hour week, after tax that'll drop to below €300. The dole is €188 so effectively the person has worked 40 hours for an extra €112 which backs up his assertion that our social system can often mean that people are disincentivised to work. All he did was his job by laying out the figures plain and simple but the government were horrified that a government agency would tell the truth and the ERSI quickly moved to distance themselves from the paper. The researcher left his job and returned to Holland but not before the ERSI tried to sell the line that his research was flawed. The funny thing is even the dogs on the street know that our welfare system is so screwed up that unless you are getting at least €11-13 per hour it actually isn't worth your while working because austerity taxes swallow up a lot more of your salary. It wasn't like his research was ground breaking, if working for minimum wage was actually worth peoples while then the hotel industry wouldn't have such a hard time finding staff, even when there is 11% unemployment. The general public already know all this, the researcher was merely codifying it into academic research but the management of the ERSI chose to keep a lid on the truth, thus discrediting themselves as an independent body in my mind.

The funny thing is it wasn't always that way in the ERSI. As a previous poster mentioned they did issue several warnings of a property bubble during the Celtic Tiger. They may not have been listened to but the fact they issued the warnings shows that back then at least they had academic freedom to publish whatever they felt right, even if their government paymasters disagreed. For me that episode of the ERSI withdrawing that paper and trying to discredit a fellow academic shows that the ERSI has changed since FG got to power. Nowadays they don't publish anything that could be considered unfavourable to the government and no doubt the FG party strategists see them as just another cog in their wheel at controlling g the news flow on austerity.

Pearse Docherty is dead right to be calling the ERSI out on this. What's the point of having a bunch of highly paid academics doing research if all they ever do is present you with good economic news which the government point at for a few weeks as evidence of economic recovery but then their research later turns out to be bluster with economic targets consistently wide of the mark ? The ERSI under the leadership of John Fitzgerald has thrown it's academic independence out the window and allowed itself to become a government mouthpiece. I doubt his father would have approved, at least Garret always called a spade a spade.

tayto lover

Mardy Bum wrote: »

He is not right though. He is using it to score political points. The same way Bertie slagged them off when they told him to hold up on the spending. Any economic research body will for the most part encourage prudence especially in the case where we cannot control interest or exchange rates.

What points was Davis Mc Williams trying to win?

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/07/26/why-the-esri-has-got-it-wrong

Doom

hfallada wrote: »

I cant remember the last time there was a major loss announcement in the news.

There will be soon, 200 jobs to go at RSA insurance and a further 200 more at Dell.
Plenty of smaller numbers of jobs disappearing everyday.

two wheels good

Muahahaha wrote: »

..... edit
The funny thing is it wasn't always that way in the ERSI. As a previous poster mentioned they did issue several warnings of a property bubble during the Celtic Tiger. They may not have been listened to but the fact they issued the warnings shows that back then at least they had academic freedom to publish whatever they felt right, even if their government paymasters disagreed. For me that episode of the ERSI withdrawing that paper and trying to discredit a fellow academic shows that the ERSI has changed since FG got to power. Nowadays they don't publish anything that could be considered unfavourable to the government and no doubt the FG party strategists see them as just another cog in their wheel at controlling g the news flow on austerity.
...edit
.

I heard Pat Kenny in an interview on the topic of the latest report quoting an ESRI report from 2007. That ESRI report was predicting a "soft landing from the property boom" and suggesting that "financial restraints could be loosened in the budget"

It made me laugh .. kind of.

Good loser

tayto lover wrote: »

What points was Davis Mc Williams trying to win?

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/07/26/why-the-esri-has-got-it-wrong

I have no idea ever what point David McWilliams is trying to make. Nor does he, I imagine. He talks gobbledy-gook backwards.

alastair

tayto lover wrote: »

What points was Davis Mc Williams trying to win?

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/07/26/why-the-esri-has-got-it-wrong

David McWilliams had a different perspective only a short while before that, one that ran counter to his article:

In the boom many of us economists said and wrote silly things (myself included) now it is better if we collectively stop flinging mud at each other, not least because we should all be on the same side.

That side, as I see it, is explaining to the citizens (and each other) what is going on as best we can, in order to educate and inform so that this never happens again. I realize that there are various ways of doing this and my own chosen method is not to everyone’s taste. But thats hardly matters.

For example, this website is the best thing to have happened economics in Ireland in a long time and but when it descends into a slagging match, its currency becomes devalued.

The ESRI made mistakes, who hasn’t?

So let’s be generous not petty.

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2010/06/26/the-esri-forecast-record/

Permabear

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Ash.J.Williams

I'd like to see Pearse in government.

super_furry

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

I'd like to see Pearse in government.

I really wouldn't. I've been impressed by the Sinn Fein protest voice and they've been great at letting everyone know what they're against but it's still totally unclear as to what they're for. And the things that they do support economically seem to be pie in the sky stuff.

Ash.J.Williams

super_furry wrote: »

I really wouldn't. I've been impressed by the Sinn Fein protest voice and they've been great at letting everyone know what they're against but it's still totally unclear as to what they're for. And the things that they do support economically seem to be pie in the sky stuff.

i didn't mention Sin Fein! I like pearse, i think he's a good politician and speaker. Same goes for the chap from greystones, he's great at writing articles and saying what should be happening but unfortunately has no voice once enters the dail.

Godge

Permabear wrote: »

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Yes, here is their 2007 manifesto, predicting the economic crisis and setting out how they would solve it

http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2009/26CountyElectionManifesto07.pdf

Riskymove

tayto lover wrote: »

Pearse Doherty has come out and criticised the ESRI over their predictions on the economy. He branded them as Government mouthpieces.
I am not a supporter of Sinn Fein but I agree 100% with him on this.

you applaud the ability of Pearse Doherty to snipe in a populist way at an economic platform while never attempting any forecasting himself

hindsight is great

It's a pity he doesn't actually put some ideas or estimates on the table himself as Finance spokesperson so that he himself can be judged in due course

tayto lover

[QUOTE=Riskymove;89931895]you applaud the ability of Pearse Doherty to snipe in a populist way at an economic platform while never attempting any forecasting himself

hindsight is great

It's a pity he doesn't actually put some ideas or estimates on the table himself as Finance spokesperson so that he himself can be judged in due course[/QUOTE]

I think its great that he does and that he's not like the regular "yes men" you usually get. FG have a great little bunch of people and organisations who come out to support them whenever something is announced so it's great to have people who will stand up to them. The fact that he pointed out the ESRI as one of these is brilliant. AND he has often put his own economic opinions forward. I heard him do so on the Vincent Browne Show several times. By the way that's the show Enda is afraid to go on.

Riskymove

I think its great that he does and that he's not like the regular "yes men" you usually get.

so like every member of the opposition then?

FF also criticised the report for example

tayto lover

Riskymove wrote: »

so like every member of the opposition then?

FF also criticised the report for example

FF were part of the original problem as were FG for giving them a free hand.
Now I think that the SF policies might not be much better or maybe worse but at least Pearse was not afraid to express his opinion and call it for what many people think it is.

20Cent

He has revealed a lot about what is going on in the finance department, NAMA etc no one else asking the hard questions. There is an issue with some mising document at the moment which should be front page news except our media are more interested in John Waters.

Pearse Doherty: Missing bank guarantee letters may be grounds for conspiracy theory
http://www.thejournal.ie/pearse-doherty-missing-bank-letters-1410908-Apr2014/

Permabear

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Banjo String

Permabear wrote: »

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Michael Noonan is a former teacher. (primary school)

It seems having economic training isn't a necessity in a financial role of Govt.

Riskymove

Banjo String wrote: »

Michael Noonan is a former teacher. (primary school)

It seems having economic training isn't a necessity in a financial role of Govt.

er...Michael Noonan isn't questioning the economist's views

Riskymove

tayto lover wrote: »

FF were part of the original problem as were FG for giving them a free hand.
Now I think that the SF policies might not be much better or maybe worse but at least Pearse was not afraid to express his opinion and call it for what many people think it is.

giving who a free hand??

the ESRI has published report which includes their best estimate of an economic forecast

some people don't agree with the forecast....Pearse Doherty doesn't think much of the Institutes work....what is the big deal with Pearse Doherty giving his view on this?

why is it so amazing to you?

SF have given out about the ESRI reports for years as have other opposition members

I just don't get why this such an amazing thing to you

Permabear

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Ash.J.Williams

Permabear wrote: »

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qualified enough to be Minister for finance though

Permabear

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Banjo String

Permabear wrote: »

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Perhaps Noonan is merely saying nothing because he's just towing the line.

You Brought the individuals educational background into it. In opposition, he rejected many economic plans of the then Govt, also, when is a housing Bubble not a housing Bubble?

When former primary school teacher, now finance Minister says so (as he did last week).
Do you believe he's economically qualified to form that opinion?

Permabear

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Banjo String

Permabear wrote: »

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Let me know what part is confusing you and I'll run through it with you sure. :cool:

Ash.J.Williams

Permabear wrote: »

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Noonan

Permabear

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Permabear

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tayto lover

Riskymove wrote: »

giving who a free hand??

the ESRI has published report which includes their best estimate of an economic forecast

some people don't agree with the forecast....Pearse Doherty doesn't think much of the Institutes work....what is the big deal with Pearse Doherty giving his view on this?

why is it so amazing to you?

SF have given out about the ESRI reports for years as have other opposition members

I just don't get why this such an amazing thing to you

The only thing FG complained about regarding the FF budgets was that they were not giving enough away. AND well you know it.
Plus the ESRI have been wrong many times before.

Godge

Riskymove wrote: »

giving who a free hand??

the ESRI has published report which includes their best estimate of an economic forecast

some people don't agree with the forecast....Pearse Doherty doesn't think much of the Institutes work....what is the big deal with Pearse Doherty giving his view on this?

why is it so amazing to you?

SF have given out about the ESRI reports for years as have other opposition members

I just don't get why this such an amazing thing to you

It is one thing SF giving out about the ESRI reports for years, it is another thing SF being right.

Godge wrote: »

So he is saying that the ESRI said that austerity would lead to growth and the government imposed austerity and now that we are seeing growth resuming in the economy following the imposition of austerity that the ESRI are wrong.

I lost him in the logic.

Very strange analysis to say the least.

I have already demonstrated that Doherty doesn't have a clue. He is only saying this stuff because he thinks it is popular, not because it is correct.

Permabear

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Banjo String

Permabear wrote: »

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Just like my favourite cousin called Kevin.

I didn't get the answer to what was confusing in my earlier post btw.

Nodin

Banjo String wrote: »

Just like my favourite cousin called Kevin.

............

Cj Haughey had a degree in economics, on top of being a qualified accountant and lawyer............

Phoebas

Nodin wrote: »

Cj Haughey had a degree in economics, on top of being a qualified accountant and lawyer............

... and look how well he did for himself.

tayto lover

Phoebas wrote: »

... and look how well he did for himself.

He actually did do very well for himself.

Banjo String

Oh look.

But the so-called Stability Programme update, published by the Department, cautioned that the €2bn in tax hikes and spending cuts was still penciled in for Budget 2015, despite suggestions from the ESRI last week that we could be in for much less austerity.

http://www.independent.ie/business/noonan-still-wants-2bn-in-budget-cuts-and-taxes-30188736.html

Frank Lee Midere

Permabear wrote: »

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Surely anybody with an engineering degree is more scientific than the social science which is economics. One's an applied science with predictive mathematics empirically tested and testable, the others as useless as tea leaves.

The ESRI most emphatically did not predict the bust. They predicted a soft landing and about 4% medium term growth in the decade from 2006. Which is about 40% out.

I don't like Sinn Fein either but playing credentialism with economics is ludicrous.

oscarBravo

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Surely anybody with an engineering degree is more scientific than the social science which is economics. One's an applied science with predictive mathematics empirically tested and testable, the others as useless as tea leaves.

So someone with an engineering qualification is better qualified to understand economics than someone with an economics qualification because economics doesn't lend itself to scientific study?

OK then.

tayto lover

oscarBravo wrote: »

So someone with an engineering qualification is better qualified to understand economics than someone with an economics qualification because economics doesn't lend itself to scientific study?

OK then.

Look where the Banking experts got us.
How many accountants saw the crash coming?