Good economic news thread

ardmacha

Godge wrote: »

GNP growth is being driven by the domestic economy and exports. The recovery is hidden in the GDP figures because of the patent cliff effect.

Apparently they are looking at a recalculation of GDP.
In any case, GNP is the one most important to jobs etc.

Looking better, as long as the politicians can be prevented from losing the plot too soon and promising tax cuts and the like. Nobody should be allowed propose any tax cut until they have produced a long term model of government expenditure and revenue in the Irish economy.

rightwingdub

comongethappy wrote: »

There are still over 800 staff all told.
There are still offices in cork, sligo, Waterford that will also lose out

It will be voluntary at first..... But if not enough people apply for VR, then the remainder will be compulsory.

Do you think Certus could be closed down in Ireland in a few years time, are the 200+ jobs been outsourced?

comongethappy

rightwingdub wrote: »

Do you think Certus could be closed down in Ireland in a few years time, are the 200+ jobs been outsourced?

Long term: Yes.

All we are doing is managing down loan books from Loyds/BOSI.

They tried to acquire new clients but it hasn't worked out & the work is starting to dry up.

rightwingdub

comongethappy wrote: »

Long term: Yes.

All we are doing is managing down loan books from Loyds/BOSI.

They tried to acquire new clients but it hasn't worked out & the work is starting to dry up.

Apart for Certus, I wouldn't be surprised if Ulster Bank eventually pulled out of Ireland, aren't they supposed to be laying off a further 1,000 staff.

Taxburden carrier

rightwingdub wrote: »

Apart for Certus, I wouldn't be surprised if Ulster Bank eventually pulled out of Ireland, aren't they supposed to be laying off a further 1,000 staff.

Stop talking down the economy;)

rightwingdub

Taxburden carrier wrote: »

Stop talking down the economy;)

Absolutely right, I should believe all the latest statements coming from the ESRI at face value

Gumbo

comongethappy wrote: »

Long term: Yes.

All we are doing is managing down loan books from Loyds/BOSI.

They tried to acquire new clients but it hasn't worked out & the work is starting to dry up.

Tbh, I'm not surprised. I've had to deal,with them as my mortgage is through BoS so all my dealings are with them. Lost out on the sale of my house because of them and this the change to jump into a larger property for minimal payment.

They "claim" to not have received my financial pack!
Sure it took 3 months to review and come to a decision, and by then the offer on my house was well and truly gone.

rightwingdub

The announcement of 225 job losses at Certus is now on the Irish times Site. According to the article 3 of the 6 regional offices in Galway, Sligo and Waterford will be shut down.

Great redundancy package capped at 143 weeks @8 weeks per year of service. If I were employed with Certus (previously BOSI) and had been there for a number of years, I'd definitely apply for the redundancy package.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/certus-looks-to-cut-225-jobs-from-loan-servicing-business-1.1759498

Phoebas

comongethappy wrote: »

200+ redundancies at Certus (Formerly BOSI) announced today.

How is that good economic news?

comongethappy

Phoebas wrote: »

How is that good economic news?

It isn't.

Though the staff will get a pretty good redundancy payment largely funded from the UK.

So it will pay down a bit of debt or buy a few cars for those affected.

Villa05

Alot of this so called good news you really have to question? but this probably takes the biscuit

STATE-OWNED AIB could be worth between "€10bn and €11bn", according to Finance Minister Michael Noonan.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taxpayers-aib-stake-worth-up-to-11bn-noonan-30180073.html

It would not surprise me if my net worth was greater than AIB's

Is it fact or is all this manipulated to create an illusion

60,000 new jobs, 1/2 of these are self employed - Last throw of the dice of a desperate disillusioned public?

1/2 are in agriculture and fisheries - Reclassification?

Villa05

Villa05 wrote: »

Alot of this so called good news you really have to question? but this probably takes the biscuit



http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taxpayers-aib-stake-worth-up-to-11bn-noonan-30180073.html

It would not surprise me if my net worth was greater than AIB's

A somewhat more balanced analysis from the Journal
http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/readme/michael-noonan-house-prices-damien-kiberd-1410085-Apr2014/

At the heart of this problem is the impossibility of recovering a proportion of the money the banks have already lent in home mortgages and in working capital and property loans to SMEs.
Official Ireland routinely claims that 12 per cent of the mortgages held by owner occupiers are toxic. These are the home loans that are in arrears for more than 90 days. A more brutal analysis of the numbers would show that the true figure for toxic debt is much higher.
If you include loans in arrears for less than 90 days and buy-to-let loans (BTLs) then the number in arrears exceeds 145,000.
Furthermore, almost half of the loans made to SMEs are in some type of difficulty. This chronic incapacity to repay exists despite the fact that base rates in the Eurozone – currently 0.25% – are on the floor.
..........

Many of the restructured loans are not technically categorised as being ‘in arrears’. It’s not possible to be completely precise but if you eliminate double counting there are well in excess of 200,000 mortgages in trouble. And that’s more than a quarter of the mortgage book
............
Pumping up house prices might be the only way to lift the mood among consumers, supporting more jobs in services. That may explain the official tolerance for greater house price inflation. If you feel you may inflate your way out of arrears, out of negative equity, you might start to spend again.
It’s a forlorn hope but it may be the only hope available. Absurd house prices-and the related credit bubble- got us into this problem: the paradox today is that higher house prices are now seen as the possible trigger for recovery.

sock puppet

Villa05 wrote: »

A somewhat more balanced analysis from the Journal
http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/readme/michael-noonan-house-prices-damien-kiberd-1410085-Apr2014/

If you were being balanced you wouldn't treat loans less than 90 days in arrears as toxic, since that is the threshold for non performance that the ECB has decided upon. Classifying any loan in arrears as non performing would actually be a very conservative measure.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0417/609417-credit-union-tracker/

"According to the latest tracker by the League, monthly disposable income amongst all adults has increased by €13 since April 2013.

For working adults, disposable income has increased by €20 since April 2013."


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/signs-of-economic-recovery-says-credit-union-body-30194576.html

jmayo

Villa05 wrote: »

Alot of this so called good news you really have to question? but this probably takes the biscuit


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taxpayers-aib-stake-worth-up-to-11bn-noonan-30180073.html

It would not surprise me if my net worth was greater than AIB's

Is it fact or is all this manipulated to create an illusion

60,000 new jobs, 1/2 of these are self employed - Last throw of the dice of a desperate disillusioned public?

1/2 are in agriculture and fisheries - Reclassification?

Ehh if AIB is only worth 10-11 billion then we won't even get back the 20 billion we pumped into it and EBS.
So far something like 19 odd billion is still outstanding.

Villa05

jmayo wrote: »

Ehh if AIB is only worth 10-11 billion then we won't even get back the 20 billion we pumped into it and EBS.
So far something like 19 odd billion is still outstanding.

What value would you apply to a company which made a loss of €1.7 billion in 2013 and double that in 2012

John.Icy

Not a huge follower of this forum anymore but I just have to comment on this.

I think it's utterly sad and pathetic that people feel the need to come into this thread, set up to post some good news, and post about redundancies and have it take up the last page or two.

It's totally fine for people to wallow in bad news day after day, but christ, take it somewhere else away from a thread where people are trying to post something other than doom and gloom.

There's reasons why things never move forward in life and its people like that, along with so many, that just prefer to sit around and moan and whine every minute of the day holding things back. What a sad life to live.

John.Icy

John.Icy wrote: »

Not a huge follower of this forum anymore but I just have to comment on this.

I think it's utterly sad and pathetic that people feel the need to come into this thread, set up to post some good news, and post about redundancies and have it take up the last page or two.

It's totally fine for people to wallow in bad news day after day, but christ, take it somewhere else away from a thread where people are trying to post something other than doom and gloom.

There's reasons why things never move forward in life and its people like that, along with so many, that just prefer to sit around and moan and whine every minute of the day holding things back. What a sad life to live.

Ach, don't be worrying. Most of them are youngsters, and I doubt any are women. So that's the majority of the population that we can count out of the doom and gloom brigade.

jmayo

John.Icy wrote: »

Not a huge follower of this forum anymore but I just have to comment on this.

I think it's utterly sad and pathetic that people feel the need to come into this thread, set up to post some good news, and post about redundancies and have it take up the last page or two.

It's totally fine for people to wallow in bad news day after day, but christ, take it somewhere else away from a thread where people are trying to post something other than doom and gloom.

There's reasons why things never move forward in life and its people like that, along with so many, that just prefer to sit around and moan and whine every minute of the day holding things back. What a sad life to live.

Is that you patrick neary ?

Yeahh lets have some positive vibes and it will make all the bad sh*t disappear.

jmayo

Villa05 wrote: »

What value would you apply to a company which made a loss of €1.7 billion in 2013 and double that in 2012

I am only stating fact that a vlaue of 10-11 billion will still mean we lsot a lot of money on AIB/EBS.

If anything I agree with you that they are really worth less.

Oh wait we can't be saying things like that on this thread, so I am really saying AIB is worth 600 billion as evidenced by the 1% shares actually being sold.

enricoh

yeh i agree completely. i spent a bit of time in donegal, roscommon n mayo recently n it was scary the amount of to let signs in the towns n nobody out for grub, pints etc.
in dublin everywhere i've been has been hopping and even where i am drogheda things are beginning to pick up again. have mates in a half empty estate n for the last few years basically a house a year got sold in it n this year every weekend theres removalvans in a driveway

padd b1975

The number of people signing on the Live Register in April fell by 3,400 on a seasonally adjusted basis to stand at 392,700 - its lowest total in five years.

April also marked the 22nd monthly decrease in a row and it was the third time in a row that the adjusted total was below the 400,000 level.

Today's figures from the Central Statistics Office show that in unadjusted terms, a total of 388,559 people were signing on in April, a decrease of 29,034 or 7% on the same time last year.

The standardised unemployment rate in April fell to 11.7% from 11.8% in March.

Commenting on the figures, Merrion economist Alan McQuaid said that while emigration has been a contributory factor in bringing down the numbers on the Live Register over the past two years or so, there is clear evidence that there is more to it than just that.

He said that employment conditions in the majority of sectors in the economy have generally improved in the past few months.

Breaking down the figures, they show that the number of male claimants fell by 9.6% to 239,541 in the year to April, while female claimants decreased by 2.3% to 149,018.

They also show that the number of long-term claimants fell by 4.2% to 178,225.

The number of male long-term claimants decreased by 7.1% in the year to April, while the number of women claimants increased by 2.5%

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0430/613988-live-register/

Villa05

Property prices fall again in March, so hopefully those people finding jobs can soon afford a place to rent/buy
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/property-prices-fall-again-in-march-30231834.html

realitykeeper

Godge wrote: »

Now that we are at the very least bumping along the bottom rather than falling into a chasm where the economy is concerned, we should probably have a thread that discusses some of the relatively good economic news that appears and whether it represents a trend upwards or a blip in the bumping.

Today we had some Q1 results. First up is the Exchequer Returns:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0402/606262-exchequer-returns-march/

for the news item

http://www.finance.gov.ie/news-centre/press-releases/end-march-exchequer-returns

for the actual figures.

Quite good news. Tax is higher than last year and higher than expected. Spending is lower than last year and lower than expected. Taken together that means the budget deficit is lower, down from €3.7 bn to €2.4 bn. We are not out of the woods yet but the outlook is positive.

One of the reasons for the improved performance is that less people are on the dole:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0402/606175-live-register-figures-fall-again-in-march/

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregistermarch2014/#.UzwylPldW1c


The annual decrease is nearly 34,000 or 8%, the real question is are they taking up jobs? Well, as income tax is up, this may well be the case.


Property prices appear to be on the way up as well,

https://www.daft.ie/report/

but whether this is good or bad news remains to be seen.

All in all, those of us who predicted in the second half of last year that green shoots were appearing and things were about to get better may well be right. Still too early to be definitive about that as the economy is still vulnerable to external shocks and to slack domestic demand.

Bertie Ahern recently said something that I actually agree with. To paraphrase, he said "economic pessimists are wrong most of the time." This is true and I guess that could be construed as good news for the economy, providing you don`t broaden your field of vision too much.

hfallada

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/boost-for-exchequer-as-tax-revenues-up-more-than-5-1.1781868

The tax figures for the first 4 months are in. All are above forecasts except for VAT. The department of finance also revealed they accidentally classified Income tax as VAT for February and March. Meaning retail is weaker than expected

Godge

hfallada wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/boost-for-exchequer-as-tax-revenues-up-more-than-5-1.1781868

The tax figures for the first 4 months are in. All are above forecasts except for VAT. The department of finance also revealed they accidentally classified Income tax as VAT for February and March. Meaning retail is weaker than expected

It is interesting. Income tax is way up, therefore there must be large numbers back at work or pay increases.

The Vat intake not being so high suggests people are using extra money to pay down debt.

Sheldons Brain

Godge wrote: »

It is interesting. Income tax is way up, therefore there must be large numbers back at work or pay increases.

The Vat intake not being so high suggests people are using extra money to pay down debt.

paying back debt would be logical. Or at least those earning money are building up a buffer in the bank before launching the big spend, unlike previous times when they would already have borrowed next months salary and spend 110% of it.

Phoebas

Another upgrade from one of the ratings agencies.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/moody-s-upgrades-ireland-s-credit-rating-by-two-notches-to-baa1-1.1799126

Moody’s has upgraded Ireland’s credit rating by two notches to Baa1 from
Baa3, with a “stable outlook”, it announced last night. This is the second time
in six months that it has raised the State’s rating.

Sheldons Brain

Retail sales up 6.2% in the year. Some of this is cars, but of course the tax take is even greater on cars.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/retail-sale-volumes-up-62pc-on-year-cso-30389361.html

Godge

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

Retail sales up 6.2% in the year. Some of this is cars, but of course the tax take is even greater on cars.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/retail-sale-volumes-up-62pc-on-year-cso-30389361.html

4.1 % increase in the value of retail sales is good news if it continues. VAT receipts and GDP go up.