Good economic news thread

Sand

John.Icy wrote: »

I think it's utterly sad and pathetic that people feel the need to come into this thread, set up to post some good news, and post about redundancies and have it take up the last page or two.

What are your thoughts on people who feel the need to cherry pick from reality, creating a good news thread?

Reminds me of the infamous "soft landing" positive thinking from 2006-2007.

Godge

Sand wrote: »

What are your thoughts on people who feel the need to cherry pick from reality, creating a good news thread?

Reminds me of the infamous "soft landing" positive thinking from 2006-2007.

The numbers disagree with you.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0702/628070-exchequer-half-year/

Sand

Disagree with me how exactly? What is the significance of the figure you just pulled out of the interwebs and how does it disprove the idea of people cherrypicking from reality?

Unemployment rates of just under 12% are also recorded as a good news story. That's how low the threshold for good news is.

AlmightyCushion

Sand wrote: »

Unemployment rates of just under 12% are also recorded as a good news story. That's how low the threshold for good news is.

It's not that the threshold is low, it's that relatively speaking it is good news. At one point the unemployment rate was over 15% and climbing even higher. That was only just over two years ago. Now, it's at 11.6% and dropping like it has done every month for the past two years. Not only has the trend of increasing unemployment reversed, but we reduced the rate by 3.5 percentage points in two years. It's a decrease of nearly 25%. That is good.

To put it in perspective in the past two years the UK went from 8% to 6.6%, a drop of 1.4 percentage points or 17.5%. And the UK would be one of the better performers in the unemployment rate in the EU.

Phoebas

When the unemployment rate is down to 5% some of the misery junkies will complain that it isn't down to 4.9%.

Head The Wall

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It's not that the threshold is low, it's that relatively speaking it is good news. At one point the unemployment rate was over 15% and climbing even higher. That was only just over two years ago. Now, it's at 11.6% and dropping like it has done every month for the past two years. Not only has the trend of increasing unemployment reversed, but we reduced the rate by 3.5 percentage points in two years. It's a decrease of nearly 25%. That is good.

To put it in perspective in the past two years the UK went from 8% to 6.6%, a drop of 1.4 percentage points or 17.5%. And the UK would be one of the better performers in the unemployment rate in the EU.

What are the exact figures when the people on schemes and in "training" are counted? The reality is that most of these schemes take people of the dole figures but they are effectively one and the same.

Let's ignore all that have emigrated as well when taking the % drop into account

ardmacha

Head The Wall wrote: »

What are the exact figures when the people on schemes and in "training" are counted? The reality is that most of these schemes take people of the dole figures but they are effectively one and the same.

Let's ignore all that have emigrated as well when taking the % drop into account

Whatever about training schemes or emigration, employment is growing relatively quickly, we might like it to grow even faster but that doesn't diminish the value of the improvement we have.

Also on the good news front, from the Central Bank
Household loan repayments exceeded drawdowns by €490 million during May 2014, following a net monthly decrease of €462 million in April. Developments in May reflect a decline across all categories of household loans, with the most substantial decrease relating to loans for house purchase, which fell by €298 million over the month.
On an annual basis, lending to Irish households continued to fall, decreasing by 3.7 per cent in May 2014. Loans for house purchase, which account for 79 per cent of total household loans, declined at an annual rate of 3.0 per cent. Lending for consumption and other purposes declined by 5.8 per cent over the year.

So consumption has risen, but lending for consumption has fallen, which suggests spending by people who can afford it, which is exactly the sort that we want.

Godge

Godge wrote: »

The numbers disagree with you.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0702/628070-exchequer-half-year/

What the figures show is that the budget is ahead of target, mainly because people are spending and earning more money. That creates a virtuous circle, not as good as the one which emerged in the 1989/1991 period, but still good news. Of course we need to ensure it doesn't turn into a noughties bubble but we are some years away from that possibility.

The other beneficial effect is that it reduces the requirement for cuts in the 2015 budget.

Even better news is this one:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0703/628161-gdp/

Increases in GDP decrease the budget deficit percentage and the overall debt/GDP ratio.

Head The Wall wrote: »

What are the exact figures when the people on schemes and in "training" are counted? The reality is that most of these schemes take people of the dole figures but they are effectively one and the same.

Let's ignore all that have emigrated as well when taking the % drop into account

The absolute numbers on the dole are down.
The absolute numbers in employment are up.

Where is the bad news in that?

Gumbo

Sand wrote: »

What are your thoughts on people who feel the need to cherry pick from reality, creating a good news thread?

Reminds me of the infamous "soft landing" positive thinking from 2006-2007.

Happens all the time on this board. just look at the amount of numbers cheery picked to have a go at PS Employees etc

Godge

ardmacha wrote: »

Whatever about training schemes or emigration, employment is growing relatively quickly, we might like it to grow even faster but that doesn't diminish the value of the improvement we have.

Also on the good news front, from the Central Bank
Household loan repayments exceeded drawdowns by €490 million during May 2014, following a net monthly decrease of €462 million in April. Developments in May reflect a decline across all categories of household loans, with the most substantial decrease relating to loans for house purchase, which fell by €298 million over the month.
On an annual basis, lending to Irish households continued to fall, decreasing by 3.7 per cent in May 2014. Loans for house purchase, which account for 79 per cent of total household loans, declined at an annual rate of 3.0 per cent. Lending for consumption and other purposes declined by 5.8 per cent over the year.

So consumption has risen, but lending for consumption has fallen, which suggests spending by people who can afford it, which is exactly the sort that we want.

That is all good news and another side-effect of it is that household debt is coming down.

Now if we could only get those who can afford to pay their mortgages but refuse to start paying up, then we would even be on the way to healthier banks.

Sand

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It's not that the threshold is low, it's that relatively speaking it is good news.

When were talking about an unemployment rate of just under 12% after years of emigration, that is just another way of saying that the threshold for good news is low.

@Phoebas

When the unemployment rate is down to 5% some of the misery junkies will complain that it isn't down to 4.9%.

I always find it strange that the positive thinking believers also tend to be quite free with tetchy, narky comments. I'd have thought they'd be more...well, happy.

I think you'll find there will always be realists who will acknowledge the bad news and not just cherry pick the good news. You'll be setting yourself up for a lot of annoyance if that bothers you so much. Getting down to 5% unemployment would be great news. We are not down at 5% unemployment despite mass emigration returning over the past few years. That's the reality.

comongethappy

Sand wrote: »

When were talking about an unemployment rate of just under 12% after years of emigration, that is just another way of saying that the threshold for good news is low.

@Phoebas


I always find it strange that the positive thinking believers also tend to be quite free with tetchy, narky comments. I'd have thought they'd be more...well, happy.

I think you'll find there will always be realists who will acknowledge the bad news and not just cherry pick the good news. You'll be setting yourself up for a lot of annoyance if that bothers you so much. Getting down to 5% unemployment would be great news. We are not down at 5% unemployment despite mass emigration returning over the past few years. That's the reality.

What "mass emigration"?
Net emigration is around 30k per annum I think.

The reduction in unemployment has been real, if modest & not too bad in an environment of real public spending reductions.

Godge

Sand wrote: »

When were talking about an unemployment rate of just under 12% after years of emigration, that is just another way of saying that the threshold for good news is low.

@Phoebas


I always find it strange that the positive thinking believers also tend to be quite free with tetchy, narky comments. I'd have thought they'd be more...well, happy.

I think you'll find there will always be realists who will acknowledge the bad news and not just cherry pick the good news. You'll be setting yourself up for a lot of annoyance if that bothers you so much. Getting down to 5% unemployment would be great news. We are not down at 5% unemployment despite mass emigration returning over the past few years. That's the reality.

Jobs can disappear overnight, resulting in sharp increases in unemployment.

Jobs can only be created over time, resulting in gradual declines in unemployment.

We are clearly in a phase of job creation, which is good news. Yes, it will take time to make its way out to everyone but that is the way it works.

ardmacha

Even the Indo has noticed the good news
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/economy-to-grow-by-33pc-next-year-as-exports-rebound-central-bank-30464347.html

note the economy is going to grow by 3.3%, not the 33pc in the url!

John.Icy

Sand wrote: »

What are your thoughts on people who feel the need to cherry pick from reality, creating a good news thread?

Reminds me of the infamous "soft landing" positive thinking from 2006-2007.

I'd say the life your likes live, is much much more sad.


Honestly, are you sitting around wishing the country to do bad? You seem to hate good news.

What's the harm in making a good news thread? Makes a change from the likes of you sitting around moaning about every flipping thing in life.

Newsflash, the reality is that there are some good things happening out there right now, along with some bad. No one is denying that things are still bad for many, no one. All that was being put in here was some good news to make a change from the usual boards.ie (and countries) negative nancy crap day after day, and all you want to do is take a crap all over it. Move on man, move on.

Sand

John.Icy wrote: »

I'd say the life your likes live, is much much more sad.


Honestly, are you sitting around wishing the country to do bad? You seem to hate good news.

What's the harm in making a good news thread? Makes a change from the likes of you sitting around moaning about every flipping thing in life.

Newsflash, the reality is that there are some good things happening out there right now, along with some bad. No one is denying that things are still bad for many, no one. All that was being put in here was some good news to make a change from the usual boards.ie (and countries) negative nancy crap day after day, and all you want to do is take a crap all over it. Move on man, move on.

As always I'm struck by how tetchy and grumpy the self described optimistic people are. Cheer up, it already happened.

Godge

Sand wrote: »

As always I'm struck by how tetchy and grumpy the self described optimistic people are. Cheer up, it already happened.

Not a bit grumpy at all, the good news keeps on coming:

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unemployment-rate-hits-five-year-low-of-11-5-1.1882542

Unemployment at a five-year low, as I have pointed out before, all of the historical evidence shows that unemployment can go up very quickly but comes down more slowly due to structural issues, the progress to date is excellent in that context, but more needs to be done.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/tax-hikes-and-cutbacks-not-needed-in-budget-ibec-says-1.1857318

IBEC believe we only need €200m budget adjustment to hit the 3% target, rather than the €2 bn forecast.


http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/budget-cuts-of-just-euro1bn-to-reach-29-deficit-target-275226.html

Alan McQuaid has it at a more difficult €1 bn but still good news.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/business/features/figures-signal-strong-growth-on-the-horizon-274641.html

"A sub-4% budget deficit looks increasingly likely in 2014." What happened to us going bust by the end of the week sometime in 2011? Or was it 2010? Or 2009? Probably all of the above many times over.

Great that the country is on the road to recovery. Still fragile. still a bit more pain (mostly water charges) but a lot of room for optimism.

Godge

And the good news keeps on coming


http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0806/635380-services-pmi/

It is great to see services expanding as most service businesses are labour-intensive


http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0805/635302-higher-tax-take-leads-to-better-exchequer-deficit/

This is really good news. €800m better than expected over 7 months is about €1.3 bn over 12 months, meaning next year's austerity requirement is down to €700m. With €500m already earmarked from water charges, the budget will only need to find another €200m IF this rate of improvement continues. Even if we plateau, it will be significantly less than €2 bn.

Godge

And again


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/siptu-strikes-230-pay-deals-with-manufacturing-firms-in-two-years-30485845.html

Pay rises becoming widespread in the private sector.


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/exchequer-returns-show-tax-take-548m-higher-than-expected-so-far-this-year-30485261.html

And more on the tax returns.

AlmightyCushion

Godge wrote: »

And the good news keeps on coming


http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0806/635380-services-pmi/

It is great to see services expanding as most service businesses are labour-intensive


http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0805/635302-higher-tax-take-leads-to-better-exchequer-deficit/

This is really good news. €800m better than expected over 7 months is about €1.3 bn over 12 months, meaning next year's austerity requirement is down to €700m. With €500m already earmarked from water charges, the budget will only need to find another €200m IF this rate of improvement continues. Even if we plateau, it will be significantly less than €2 bn.

It's great to see the tax take is higher than expected but I still think we should make the €2b adjustment or at least get close to it. We need to reduce the deficit. The lower the deficit, the less we have to borrow, the less interest we have to pay to service the debt and if the shít hits the fan again, having less debt will definitely be an advantage. Imagine if we went into the current crisis with a national debt of over €100b vs the €35b or so it was. The country would have been properly screwed.

Chips Lovell

I don't think they will go for the €2 billion though. I reckon they're already thinking about the next election and are going to find it irresistible to only make the minimum adjustment

Godge

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It's great to see the tax take is higher than expected but I still think we should make the €2b adjustment or at least get close to it. We need to reduce the deficit. The lower the deficit, the less we have to borrow, the less interest we have to pay to service the debt and if the shít hits the fan again, having less debt will definitely be an advantage. Imagine if we went into the current crisis with a national debt of over €100b vs the €35b or so it was. The country would have been properly screwed.

If things go well in the second half of the year they could cut a lot less than €2 bn, say €900m and overshoot the 3% target, maybe as low as 2.5%. The effect of that would be to make us really look good on the markets and we would have less to cut in future years.

Brussels Sprout

Godge wrote: »

And again


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/siptu-strikes-230-pay-deals-with-manufacturing-firms-in-two-years-30485845.html

Pay rises becoming widespread in the private sector.

Good stuff. With the public sector and their annual increments now everyone can get pay raises!

Geuze

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It's great to see the tax take is higher than expected but I still think we should make the €2b adjustment or at least get close to it. We need to reduce the deficit. The lower the deficit, the less we have to borrow, the less interest we have to pay to service the debt and if the shít hits the fan again, having less debt will definitely be an advantage. Imagine if we went into the current crisis with a national debt of over €100b vs the €35b or so it was. The country would have been properly screwed.

Good points.

But running smaller deficits / surpluses won't get you votes.

Godge

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0807/635593-economy/


ESRI gets in on the act.

Noticeable decrease on the "sky is falling down" threads on this forum as well.

Godge

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Good stuff. With the public sector and their annual increments now everyone can get pay raises!

Expect a promise before the election from Labour to give back some of the cuts to public service pay.

Idbatterim

Imagine if we went into the current crisis with a national debt of over €100b vs the €35b or so it was. The country would have been properly screwed.

If we went into it with 100 billion debt, there is no way we wouldnt have received a Greek style write off and the "austerity" would have been a serious bout of it, not the borrow tens of billions per year "austerity" we got...

I think the parties in government have done a better job than the alternatives would have, but I still think they have done a poor job and wasted a good crisis, where they had the opportunity to write some of the wrongs that they probably wont get a chance to again, or for quite some time at least...

Expect a promise before the election from Labour to give back some of the cuts to public service pay.

yeah possibly via income tax reductions, doubt they will be stupid enough to restore some of the cuts in the next two budgets!

ardmacha

Idbatterim wrote: »

If we went into it with 100 billion debt, there is no way we wouldnt have received a Greek style write off and the "austerity" would have been a serious bout of it, not the borrow tens of billions per year "austerity" we got...

I think the parties in government have done a better job than the alternatives would have, but I still think they have done a poor job and wasted a good crisis, where they had the opportunity to write some of the wrongs that they probably wont get a chance to again, or for quite some time at least...

yeah possibly via income tax reductions, doubt they will be stupid enough to restore some of the cuts in the next two budgets!

If the economy has improved why should they not look at PS salaries, which were cut far more than private ones?

The irresponsibility of this government is manifest in that they have not provided anything resembling a policy for the management of the public services, nothing beyond the values of political expediency that Bertie favoured. They have done nothing whatsoever to establish what levels of expenditure are needed to provide the efficient and quality delivery of a particular level of public service, they have simply pandered to the public notion that services should be free and taxes should be low, which is impossible.

Idbatterim

hey have simply pandered to the public notion that services should be free and taxes should be low, which is impossible.

I will agree with you on that point.

Flex

ardmacha wrote: »

If the economy has improved why should they not look at PS salaries, which were cut far more than private ones?

The irresponsibility of this government is manifest in that they have not provided anything resembling a policy for the management of the public services, nothing beyond the values of political expediency that Bertie favoured. They have done nothing whatsoever to establish what levels of expenditure are needed to provide the efficient and quality delivery of a particular level of public service, they have simply pandered to the public notion that services should be free and taxes should be low, which is impossible.

They should look at Public vs Private sector pay by doing another like for like comparison to see what the remaining gap is, similar to the ESRI report done in 2006, if they do