Ebola virus outbreak

ProfessorPlum

gozunda wrote: »

And then ignore what has been said and replace it with an alternative reality! Then make snide personal comments like the above and previous. You have repeatedly reverted to making similar remarks when you don't agree with any post. Life's to short - don't have time for that type of crud tbh ...

Snide personal comments? I think you might be mixing us up.
And I'd love to see some examples where I've 'inserted an alternative reality'.
Maybe it's just a differing opinion or point if view.

gozunda

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Snide personal comments? I think you might be mixing us up.
And I'd love to see some examples where I've 'inserted an alternative reality'.
Maybe it's just a differing opinion or point if view.

Go read your previous posts. You are clearly looking to pick a fight. I suggest you go to the local pub and try it there - I'm sure you will be adequately entertained. I can't be bothered tbh...

ProfessorPlum

gozunda wrote: »

Go read your previous posts. You are clearly looking to pick a fight. I suggest you go to the local pub and try it there - I'm sure you will be adequately entertained. I can't be bothered tbh...

No I'm not. I'm interested in having a discussion. Generally when that happens sometimes people disagree with each other. It's all part of the process. If you think I'm clearly looking to pick a fight, maybe you need to look at yourself.

ceadaoin.

gozunda wrote: »

Yada yada .... If he is so well experienced and knowledgable then He SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER. if he is going out to help fair play - but with such endeavours comes responsibility to those with whom he lives including his family and the rest of the population. Ok so he does good - it does not rule out him being responsible. End of.

Btw quarantine is a standard procedure in the face of serious epidemics. The guy obviously thinks he is invincible but it doesn't make him Mother fracking Teresa

Is it coincidence that he came home just as he had become infected or was he getting out as he knew the chances were he was infected and his best chance was treatment in the US? Who knows ...

I'm sure he had no inkling that he was infected. As far as he was aware his PPE was adequate and he reported no failures with that. Do you think he would have potentially exposed his fiancée and friends if he was aware he could have ebola? So he would risk his life to help strangers on the other side of the world but then callously and knowingly expose his loved ones to a potentially fatal disease? No it doesn't add up.

He has freely admitted that he felt fatigued starting on Tuesday. He probably put that down to jet lag. There does seem to be some measure of denial about it possibly being ebola at first . It's entirely natural, who wants to face up the fact that they could possibly be dead within a few weeks? Let's see if anyone else becomes infected before vilifying him.

gozunda

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

No I'm not. I'm interested in having a discussion. Generally when that happens sometimes people disagree with each other. It's all part of the process. If you think I'm clearly looking to pick a fight, maybe you need to look at yourself.

Fingers in ears

+1 ignore list ...

Edit: brilliant! you can remove your 'snide' thanks btw ....It would perhaps be better if you ignored yourself as well ...

Mint Aero

This stuff is scary. I paid no attention to any of the avian flu of the past decade as they were clearly man made and targeted very specifically. But this, God damn, this stuff scares me.

gozunda

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I'm sure he had no inkling that he was infected. As far as he was aware his PPE was adequate and he reported no failures with that. Do you think he would have potentially exposed his fiancée and friends if he was aware he could have ebola?

He has freely admitted that he felt fatigued starting on Tuesday. He probably put that down to jet lag. There does seem to be some measure of denial about it possibly being ebola at first . It's entirely natural, who wants to face up the fact that they could possibly be dead within a few weeks? Let's see if anyone else becomes infected before vilifying him.

As I said who knows. Just that the guy should have known better - being within the 21 incubation period and knowing that other medics have inexplicably become infected in similar situations. Was he in denial? Did he have an inkling but didn't want to admit it just in case he wasn't? Definitely a strange 'coincidence' either way that he returned just as he had contacted Ebola after spending significant time in Africa. Human nature can never be fully plumed imo ..

ceadaoin.

gozunda wrote: »

As I said who knows. Just that the guy should have known better - being within the 21 incubation period and knowing that other medics have inexplicably become infected in similar situations. Was he in denial? Did he have an inkling but didn't want to admit it just in case he wasn't? Human nature can never be fully plumed imo ..

Id imagine he had a slight inkling when he started to feel crap. But human nature would choose to believe it was any number of other things before jumping straight to ebola IMO..Jet lag, a cold, even malaria. At least he did the right thing by getting medical attention as soon as his fever spiked. The person most at risk is his girlfriend, there is very little risk to the general public. It would be a different story if he was very sick when out and about so hopefully that wasn't the case.

ProfessorPlum

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Id imagine he had a slight inkling when he started to feel crap. But human nature would choose to believe it was any number of other things before jumping straight to ebola IMO..Jet lag, a cold, even malaria. At least he did the right thing by getting medical attention as soon as his fever spiked. The person most at risk is his girlfriend, there is very little risk to the general public. It would be a different story if he was very sick when out and about so hopefully that wasn't the case.

The only symptom he had before Thursday morning was 'some fatigue'. He felt a bit crap when he woke up Thursday with some nausea, fatigue and a low grade fever. At that point he contacted MSF and got the wheels rolling. I agree - the only person I would be on anyway concerned about is his fiancé, and even then I'd be shocked if she was infected. All the evidence points to cross infection happening in the later stages. At the presymptomatic and even the early symptomatic stages it seems the viral loads are just not high enough - especially in the types of bodily fluids the general public would be exposed to - sputum, saliva, sweat etc.

ProfessorPlum

gozunda wrote: »

Fingers in ears

+1 ignore list ...

Edit: brilliant! you can remove your 'snide' thanks btw ....It would perhaps be better if you ignored yourself as well ...

It wasn't a snide like. It was an acknowgement that you didn't want to engage and an acceptance of that. If you still want me to remove it I will.

gozunda

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

It wasn't a snide like. It was an acknowgement that you didn't want to engage and an acceptance of that. If you still want me to remove it I will.

Ya right. Snide it is. So do.

ceadaoin.

Here is some new info from the CDC about how ebola is spread through droplets and surface contamination. Well it's not new info but it's new that the CDC are focusing on it.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/infections-spread-by-air-or-droplets.pdf

ProfessorPlum

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Here is some new info from the CDC about how ebola is spread through droplets and surface contamination. Well it's not new info but it's new that the CDC are focusing on it.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/infections-spread-by-air-or-droplets.pdf

It looks like a simple schematic that the CDC are using to try and educate the public about droplet versus airborne. There had been enough hysteria and panic around the idea that the Ebola virus is 'airborne' and the CDC are trying to educate that out. Hopefully it will help to quell some of the fear, but that's going to be an uphill battle I think with the way the media are reporting (and I think to an extent the way politicians are pandering to what they think the public want to hear re entry screening, quarantine etc. those kind of decisions should be left to the experts IMO. )

Calibos

Mint Aero wrote: »

This stuff is scary. I paid no attention to any of the avian flu of the past decade as they were clearly man made and targeted very specifically. But this, God damn, this stuff scares me.

Ah Jaysus, another regular that I didn't realise till now was a CT'er. :rolleyes:

gozunda

The reason why quarantine procedures are urgently needed to prevent the spread of Ebola ...

Dr Stella Ameyo Adadevoh (first) raised a red flag when attending to a Liberian patient at the First Consultant Hospital in Nigeria's main city, Lagos, in July.

Patrick Sawyer had just flown into the country, already sick - he should never have been allowed on the plane.
Nigeria had never had an Ebola case before so it was an impressive piece of diagnostic work.

Whilst caring for Mr Sawyer and protecting the nation from the virus, Dr Adadevoh and her colleagues were themselves at great risk...

Patrick Sawyer became the first person to die of Ebola in Nigeria ...

These were the early days of the Ebola outbreak and Nigeria was not ready. Dr Adadevoh had already gone to inspect Lagos's rudimentary Ebola treatment centre, and had described it as "uninhabitable", Mr Cardoso says.

"So, when she had to go in she was, of course, very worried," recalls Mr Cardoso who followed behind the ambulance in his car.

Dr Adadevoh had earlier already won a different battle - to isolate Mr Sawyer. He had not taken kindly to being told he could not leave.

"Immediately, he was very aggressive. He was more intent on leaving the hospital than anything else," says Dr Benjamin Ohiaeri, the director of First Consultant

"He was screaming. He pulled his intravenous [tubes] and spilled the blood everywhere."

It has been suggested that Mr Sawyer, who had already lost a sister to Ebola, was not interested in medical assistance as he had set his mind on visiting one of Nigeria's popular Pentecostal churches in search of a cure from one of the so-called miracle pastors.

During those early days caring for Mr Sawyer whilst awaiting the result of the blood test, Dr Adadevo came under intense pressure to let him leave - a move that could have had catastrophic consequences.

"The Liberian ambassador started calling Dr Adadevo, putting pressure on her and the institution. He felt we were kidnapping the gentleman and said it was a denial of his fundamental rights and we could face further actions," says Dr Ohiaeri, adding that the hospital trusted Dr Adadevo's judgment.

"The only way we could be sure and live up to our responsibility to our people, the state and nation - this is all about patriotism at the end of the day - was to keep him here."

Mr Sawyer died in the hospital from Ebola. Dr Adadevoh and eleven of her colleagues caught the virus.

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29696011

In the US both New York and New Jersey have now moved to put in place strict quarantine rules that will require returning aid workers who have had contact with Ebola patients to undergo 21 days of quarantine

However in a response not dissimilar to that met by the Nigerian health specialists who sought to contain the disease the first person who is being held under the new regulations is now said to be in train "to file a federal lawsuit challenging her confinement as a violation of her civil rights, her lawyer told Reuters on Sunday."

Norman Siegel, a well-known civil rights lawyer, said that Kaci Hickox's confinement after she returned from West Africa raised "serious constitutional and civil liberties issues," given that she remains asymptomatic and has not tested positive for Ebola."We're not going to dispute that the government has, under certain circumstances, the right to issue a quarantine," he said. "The policy is overly broad when applied to her.”

https://news.yahoo.com/nurse-quarantined-ebola-monitoring-sue-lawyer-211329434.html

Even though the nurse has been tested for presence of the virus in her system - the period of incubation is estimated to be approximately 21 days. Until this period is up neither the nurse not anyone else will knew if she is infected or otherwise.

As in the case of Patrick Sawyer it is possible that some returning aid workers may not appreciate the potential danger they pose to others or for some of those who have deep seated religious convictions ( especially those working as representatives of various churches) that place emphasis on religious belief over other medical considerations.

That individuals choose to go out to help fight Ebola is a good thing but with these decisions come responsibility to the countries and the populations to which they are returning.

The handling of a level four biological agent such as Ebola requires that every caution is taken. It will take only one individual to potentially infect many others as happened in Nigeria.

To those who say that 'ah lads - we are not being grateful to these individuals' that is a null argument - it's nothing to do with gratitude of otherwise. What it has to do with is ensuring that health care and other aid workers (who are at high risk from contracting Ebola) don't unwittingly carry the virus back with them. For those that do go out to help in the fight against Ebola - them they need to know all the risks and consequences (including quarantine) that doing so entails.

ceadaoin.

60 minutes had a report on the Dallas ebola case with some new information tonight.

They say that Duncan did not tell them that he had come from Liberia on his first visit to the ER. He just said he had come from Africa. They should have asked for further information really. His symptoms weren't that severe at that stage so they didn't think it was ebola and sent him home.

When he came back in he told them he was from Liberia but that he had no contact with anyone with ebola. He later told a nurse that in fact he had buried his daughter who was pregnant and who had died in childbirth, not from ebola. He then later denied saying this. This must be the 'neighbour' that he helped to the car. So it was actually his daughter?

All the staff who treated him volunteered to do so. Many of them are still self monitoring. It seems like some of them are pretty traumatised now. Having nightmares and worried about becoming infected themselves. The conditions they worked under sound difficult to say the least

Still, treating Duncan was unlike anything the care team had done before. Nurses worked two at a time, for two-hour shifts, wearing full-body protections that left them soaked in sweat under the suit.


Duncan’s vomit and diarrhea also presented logistical challenges; it was all hazardous waste, because anything with Duncan’s bodily fluids could infect someone else. And he was producing an unbelievable amount of it.

“I’ve been in health care for nearly 20 years,” ICU nurse John Mulligan told 60 Minutes, “and I’ve never emptied as much trash as just from the waste of his constant diarrhea.”

The nurse also described staying with him as he died

“It was the worst day of my life,” Mulligan told 60 Minutes. “This man that we cared for, that fought just as hard with us, lost his fight. And his family couldn’t be there.”

“I was the last one to leave the room. And I held him in my arms. He was alone.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamond/2014/10/26/60-minutes-just-broke-new-details-on-the-dallas-ebola-case-heres-what-they-revealed/

Sclosages

Remind me to keep my paw beside my side at the next 'Who would like to....' session at work!

Sclosages

http://nypost.com/2014/10/29/ebola-doctor-lied-about-his-nyc-travels-police/?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPFacebook&utm_medium=SocialFlow

So it seems the doctor was less than truthful about his activities in NY. Clearly he had no concern for anyone he came in contact with during his travels! Git.

ectoraige

I see the HSE is carrying out an ebola readiness test today at the Mater.

Staff will attend to a "pretend patient" with a suspected Ebola infection and their performance will be assessed.

The exercise will involve an assessment of how staff would deal with a patient infected with Ebola.

While the hospital is being tested for its preparedness for an outbreak, a section of the Berkeley Road will be cordoned off for up to half an hour this afternoon.

Perhaps we should do the same here, and make some wildly panicked and ill-informed speculative posts, drowning out the occasional reasoned responses?

ceadaoin.

The WHO have reported that the official number of cases in west Africa is up to 13,703 now.

Akrasia

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The WHO have reported that the official number of cases in west Africa is up to 13,703 now.

The figure was only 10,100 3 or 4 days ago. Are they including previously unverified cases in these new figures, or have there been 3000 new infections since the weekend?

littlemac1980

Akrasia wrote: »

The figure was only 10,100 3 or 4 days ago. Are they including previously unverified cases in these new figures, or have there been 3000 new infections since the weekend?

I expect that the collection and collation of data isn't a regular daily occurrence.

It's likely that the figures are accurate as per completed reports at the date of publication, but that there may be delays obtaining reports from remoter locations or particularly problematic areas, and that those updates when they are received cause significant jumps once added to the figures.

ceadaoin.

Akrasia wrote: »

The figure was only 10,100 3 or 4 days ago. Are they including previously unverified cases in these new figures, or have there been 3000 new infections since the weekend?

From the WHO twitter account:


"Dr Aylward on jump in today's #Ebola data: There was under-reporting but data are being caught up now"

Beano

ectoraige wrote: »

I see the HSE is carrying out an ebola readiness test today at the Mater.



Perhaps we should do the same here, and make some wildly panicked and ill-informed speculative posts, drowning out the occasional reasoned responses?

is that not what has been happening here?

Egginacup

Sclosages wrote: »

http://nypost.com/2014/10/29/ebola-doctor-lied-about-his-nyc-travels-police/?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPFacebook&utm_medium=SocialFlow

So it seems the doctor was less than truthful about his activities in NY. Clearly he had no concern for anyone he came in contact with during his travels! Git.

More lies from the NYPost.

Spencer didn't go bowling. He checked his temperature on Oct 23, it was slightly elevated at 100.3. He immediately went into isolation. At no time did he go bowling with a temperature of 103 (falsely reported). But sure screw the facts when you want to frighten the bejaysus out of everyone.

And just look at all those fuckin' eejits scrubbing down that bowling alley.

Shower of alarmist and gullible tits.

Sclosages

Egginacup wrote: »

More lies from the NYPost.

Spencer didn't go bowling. He checked his temperature on Oct 23, it was slightly elevated at 100.3. He immediately went into isolation. At no time did he go bowling with a temperature of 103 (falsely reported). But sure screw the facts when you want to frighten the bejaysus out of everyone.

And just look at all those fuckin' eejits scrubbing down that bowling alley.

Shower of alarmist and gullible tits.

They didn't say he did these things with a fever. They said he did them and denied having done anything.

Grayson

Egginacup wrote: »

More lies from the NYPost.

Spencer didn't go bowling. He checked his temperature on Oct 23, it was slightly elevated at 100.3. He immediately went into isolation. At no time did he go bowling with a temperature of 103 (falsely reported). But sure screw the facts when you want to frighten the bejaysus out of everyone.

And just look at all those fuckin' eejits scrubbing down that bowling alley.

Shower of alarmist and gullible tits.

Did you see the daily show about it?

they flashed up a photo of him and said that 100.3 might just be because he's hot

ceadaoin.

Egginacup wrote: »

More lies from the NYPost.

Spencer didn't go bowling. He checked his temperature on Oct 23, it was slightly elevated at 100.3. He immediately went into isolation. At no time did he go bowling with a temperature of 103 (falsely reported). But sure screw the facts when you want to frighten the bejaysus out of everyone.

And just look at all those fuckin' eejits scrubbing down that bowling alley.

Shower of alarmist and gullible tits.

He did go bowling. No one has said he went bowling when he had a fever have they? I haven't seen that reported anywhere. It appears he started experiencing minor symptoms on October 21 and he went bowling the next day. I'm pretty sure he won't have infected anyone in the bowling alley but what harm is cleaning it going to do? I'm sure it needed a good scrub anyway!

littlemac1980

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Here's a useful map applet that allows you to scroll through the timeline of the reported cases Ebola Outbreak.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-31/ebola-timeline-deadliest-outbreak/5639060

You'll see that the shocking rate at which the number of infected is growing.

From:

17.04.2014 - 18.05.2014 - the number of cases grew from 249 to 305.

18.05.2014 - 16.06.2014 - 305 to 666

16.06.2014 - 12.07.2014 - 666 to 967

12.07.2014. - 11.08.2014 - 967 to 1977

11.08.2014 - 07.09.2014 - 1977 to 4392

07.09.2014 - 01.10.2014 - 4392 to 7492.

The most recent figure of 13,703 appears largely in line with the trend of increase in cases to date.

02.10.2014 - 29.10.2014 7492 to 13,703.

= 6,211 new cases in 28 days

= 221.8 new cases per day.

littlemac1980

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Here's a useful map applet that allows you to scroll through the timeline of the reported cases Ebola Outbreak.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-31/ebola-timeline-deadliest-outbreak/5639060

You'll see that the shocking rate at which the number of infected is growing.

From:

17.04.2014 - 18.05.2014 - the number of cases grew from 249 to 305.

18.05.2014 - 16.06.2014 - 305 to 666

16.06.2014 - 12.07.2014 - 666 to 967

12.07.2014. - 11.08.2014 - 967 to 1977

11.08.2014 - 07.09.2014 - 1977 to 4392

07.09.2014 - 01.10.2014 - 4392 to 7492.

The most recent figure of 13,703 appears largely in line with the trend of increase in cases to date.

02.10.2014 - 29.10.2014 7492 to 13,703.

= 6,211 new cases in 28 days

= 221.8 new cases per day.

And here's my previous cases per day analysis.

littlemac1980 wrote: »

Analysing the above figures a little more shows us the corresponding increase in the daily rate of infection over those time periods.

Of course it must be borne in mind - that the above figures represent the characteristics of contagion of the disease at an early stage and may not be absolutely accurate in terms of demonstrating the "exponent" of increase.

Also it must be considered a likely factor that the number of new cases may have artificially jumped/or stalled in certain periods due to the fact that "new cases" really means "new cases detected" and would be influenced by greater or lesser efforts to detect.

The accuracy of the figures is obviously limited by both the limited range of data available and the stage at which the contagion is at (very early stage), it would obviously be much better to have a number of years data of this strain and the numbers of people affected to give more accurate figures, nevertheless the rate of growth is a cause for concern should a serious increase in efforts to contain this virus and stall or reverse the spread not be implemented ASAP.

17.04.2014 - 18.05.2014 - 31 days - 56 new cases - 1.8 new cases per day.

18.05.2014 - 16.06.2014 - 29 days - 361 new cases - 12.45 new cases per day.

16.06.2014 - 12.07.2014 - 26 days - 301 new cases - 11.58 new cases per day.

12.07.2014. - 11.08.2014 - 30 days - 1010 new cases - 33.67 new cases per day.

11.08.2014 - 07.09.2014 - 27 days - 2415 new cases - 89.44 new cases per day.

07.09.2014 - 01.10.2014 - 24 days - 3100 new cases - 129.17 new cases per day.