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Football ranking table
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3 provincial finals, and only one of them to be particularly close. Apparently.
Game|Prediction
Dublin vs Meath | Dublin by 9.5
Donegal vs Cavan | Donegal by 4
Cork vs Tipperary | Cork by 8.50 -
CrabRevolution wrote: »Don't think I've ever seen a <1 point margin predicted before, I thought that just got called as a draw.
I'm sure I'm missing something, but how are Meath predicted to win, when we're ranked beneath Kildare by a tiny amount, and it's a neutral venue?
I checked the code, anything less than 0.8 as a winning margin gets called a draw.....can't remember why I chose 0.8 tbh.......0 -
I think we all thought these rankings wouldn't be moving much for the rest of the season, I expect Tipp will ascend by one of the biggest leaps in one day.0
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Munster Championship:
Tipp beat Limerick by one and both Cork and Clare by three.
Cork beat Kerry by two.
Therefore Munster counties rank as follows:
1. Tipperary
2. Limerick
3. Cork and Clare jointly
5. Kerry
6. Waterford.0 -
Munster Championship:
Tipp beat Limerick by one and both Cork and Clare by three.
Cork beat Kerry by two.
Therefore Munster counties rank as follows:
1. Tipperary
2. Limerick
3. Cork and Clare jointly
5. Kerry
6. Waterford.
No offence feargale but I think that's a tad simplistic.:)
I do not think the majority of people would rank the counties below Tipp in that order.0 -
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seligehgit wrote: »No offence feargale but I think that's a tad simplistic.:)
I do not think the majority of people would rank the counties below Tipp in that order.
Dammit. And there was me thinking I could finally inject some humility into my Kerry neighbour. Notwithstanding what you say I think I'll persist with my analysis where he is concerned.0 -
laoisman11 wrote: »Meath's bonus-point win over Kildare give them the most rating points exchanged after this weekend's games, while Cavan make it into the top 8, something which used to be super, but now, nobody is so sure.......
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
2 | = | Mayo | 105.46 | 2.00
3 | = | Donegal | 104.07 | 1.26
4 | = | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | = | Galway | 93.47 | -2.00
7 | ▲ 3 | Cavan | 92.57 | 1.14
8 | ▼ | Cork | 92.53 | 0.00
9 | ▲ 3 | Meath | 92.45 | 4.53
10 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
11 | ▼ 2 | Armagh | 90.76 | -1.26
12 | ▲ | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
13 | ▲ | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
14 | ▼ 3 | Kildare | 83.49 | -4.53
15 | ▲ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
16 | ▼ | Down | 80.98 | -1.14
17 | = | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
18 | = | Tipperary | 79.05 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00
How high will Cavan go after our win?0 -
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Two major shocks this weekend, and ones that have certainly shook up the ranking table! I have to say that I wasn't expecting too much movement but both Tipp and Cavan proved me wrong.
- Tipperary collected 6 rating points from Cork and move up 4 places to 14th overall
- Cavan reaped 5.3 rating point from Donegal and are now at their highest since April 2002. Just one position climbed but they have put space between themselves and the peloton
- No rating points were exchanged in the Leinster final massacre
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
2 | = | Mayo | 105.46 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
4 | ▼ | Donegal | 98.77 | -5.30
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Cavan | 97.87 | 5.30
7 | ▼ | Galway | 93.47 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Meath | 92.45 | 0.00
9 | ▲ | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
10 | ▲ | Armagh | 90.76 | 0.00
11 | ▼ 3 | Cork | 86.53 | -6.00
12 | = | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
13 | = | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
14 | ▲ 4 | Tipperary | 85.05 | 6.00
15 | ▼ | Kildare | 83.49 | 0.00
16 | ▼ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
17 | ▼ | Down | 80.98 | 0.00
18 | ▼ | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.000 -
Extremely difficult for the model to make predictions based on the paucity of previous meetings between the sides involved in this year's semi-finals (18 meetings between Dublin and Cavan and 8 between Mayo and Tipperary since 1925), but some interesting points to consider from the in-depth report attached:
- Dublin have under-performed against Cavan in 9 of their 10 last meetings
- Cavan's form appears quite variable from game to game, there could be a question about their consistency
- Tipperary have over-performed in 10 of their last 11 games but have not beaten Mayo in their 8 meetings since 1925
tl;dr
Dublin by 9.3
Mayo by 120 -
laoisman11 wrote: »Extremely difficult for the model to make predictions based on the paucity of previous meetings between the sides involved in this year's semi-finals (18 meetings between Dublin and Cavan and 8 between Mayo and Tipperary since 1925), but some interesting points to consider from the in-depth report attached:
- Dublin have under-performed against Cavan in 9 of their 10 last meetings
- Cavan's form appears quite variable from game to game, there could be a question about their consistency
- Tipperary have over-performed in 10 of their last 11 games but have not beaten Mayo in their 8 meetings since 1925
tl;dr
Dublin by 9.3
Mayo by 12
Last Dublin Cavan contest in Croker in 1990?
Dublin are an entirely different proposition in Croke Park in the last decade/this year.
IMO the model is overly generous to Mayo in terms of predicted margin and the polar opposite to Dublin.
Thanks for your marvellous and always fascinating endeavour.0 -
Don't forget Tipp have a few players they didn't have during the league.0
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seligehgit wrote: »No offence feargale but I think that's a tad simplistic.:)
I do not think the majority of people would rank the counties below Tipp in that order.
After today I'm thinking Kerry will rank about no. 29.
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Apologies, I haven't come back in here since the semi-finals, because basically the results had absolutely no effect on the tables, with no rating points exchanged between either set of teams due to the gulf between them.
I will be back later this week with the prediction model output for the final.0 -
laoisman11 wrote: »Apologies, I haven't come back in here since the semi-finals, because basically the results had absolutely no effect on the tables, with no rating points exchanged between either set of teams due to the gulf between them.
I will be back later this week with the prediction model output for the final.
Ah laoisman11 there's no rush!
I'll be peeking through my hand covered eyes behind the couch when you post a prediction!:eek:0 -
What a year! And it's not over yet.......
One final chance for 2020 to throw up the unexpected, to shake us out of our routine, to send historians scampering back to the dark ages so as to inform us about when such an event might have happened before.........
There is many a romantic here, and I would be one of them, but it appears difficult to imagine how Mayo would have enough to trouble Dublin for 70 minutes. It is really going to require a Herculean effort by Mayo and hope that things go seriously awry in the Dublin camp for this game to remain interesting with 10 minutes to go. And even then.......
The prediction model is no romantic however. Cold, hard numbers show a rating difference of 5 points between the sides, a Dublin team that has won their last 3 games by approximately 10 points more than expected, and a team that have not lost to Mayo since 2012.
The full prediction model output is attached (the fixtures for 2019 are missing in section 5 but are in graphic 4, a bug to be corrected some time).
tl;dr Dublin by 50 -
Spot on.0
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No shocks to be seen in Croke Park on an All-Ireland Saturday approaching the winter solstice. Despite rattling Dublin for 55 minutes, Mayo were not only missing that extra piece of the jigsaw but they were also aware of it, with speculative shots and desperate actions providing even more ammunition to Dublin to lap up and punish.
The year finishes with Dublin again in the number 1 ranking place, a spot that they have occupied since September 2015. Their streak stands today at 1934 days, surpassing Kerry’s record from the 1930s (1631 days) and Kerry's more recent summit streak from the 78-82 vintage (1407 days). We are truly witnessing an all-time great team, and it looks likely that their reign will continue into the near future.
I will do up an end of year review over the holidays.
Merry Christmas! And may 2021 be less of a sh1t-fest than 2*2*.
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 112.28 | 1.29
2 | = | Mayo | 104.17 | -1.29
3 | = | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 98.77 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | = | Cavan | 97.87 | 0.00
7 | = | Galway | 93.47 | 0.00
8 | = | Meath | 92.45 | 0.00
9 | = | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 90.76 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
12 | = | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
13 | = | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
14 | = | Tipperary | 85.05 | 0.00
15 | = | Kildare | 83.49 | 0.00
16 | = | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
17 | = | Down | 80.98 | 0.00
18 | = | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.000 -
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laoisman11 wrote: »No shocks to be seen in Croke Park on an All-Ireland Saturday approaching the winter solstice. Despite rattling Dublin for 55 minutes, Mayo were not only missing that extra piece of the jigsaw but they were also aware of it, with speculative shots and desperate actions providing even more ammunition to Dublin to lap up and punish.
The year finishes with Dublin again in the number 1 ranking place, a spot that they have occupied since September 2015. Their streak stands today at 1934 days, surpassing Kerry’s record from the 1930s (1631 days) and Kerry's more recent summit streak from the 78-82 vintage (1407 days). We are truly witnessing an all-time great team, and it looks likely that their reign will continue into the near future.
I will do up an end of year review over the holidays.
Merry Christmas! And may 2021 be less of a sh1t-fest than 2*2*.
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 112.28 | 1.29
2 | = | Mayo | 104.17 | -1.29
3 | = | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 98.77 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | = | Cavan | 97.87 | 0.00
7 | = | Galway | 93.47 | 0.00
8 | = | Meath | 92.45 | 0.00
9 | = | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 90.76 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
12 | = | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
13 | = | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
14 | = | Tipperary | 85.05 | 0.00
15 | = | Kildare | 83.49 | 0.00
16 | = | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
17 | = | Down | 80.98 | 0.00
18 | = | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00
Thanks for sharing again this season!0 -
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There is a certain familiarity to the top of the ranking table after what was a less than familiar year. The only change to the top 5 sees Mayo and Kerry swap positions for 2nd and 3rd. But in the lower ranks, there was considerable movement…..
Winners- Tipperary: A massive 18 rating points and 11 ranking places gained, 2020 will live long in the memory with a first Munster title since 1935
- Wicklow; Promotion from Division 4 and Wexford’s scalp in the Leinster SFC were rewarded with gains of 11 rating points and 7 ranking places
- Cavan: Despite relegation from Division 2, their Ulster title win, beating 4 rivals along the way, results in a boost of 6 rating points and 2 ranking places for Cavan
- Honourable mention: Both Laois and Westmeath managed to increase their worth by exactly 6.06 rating points
Losers- Fermanagh take top spot here with almost 11 rating points and 7 ranking places lost since the start of the year, following a bottom-of-the-table finish in Division 2 and a heavy championship loss to Down
- Waterford dropped almost 7 rating points – 2 wins and a draw in Division 4 and a heavy defeat to Limerick in Munster will make this a year to forget
- And the rest: Longford, Clare and Roscommon all lost approx. 6 rating points, with 4, 5 and 3 ranking places dropped, respectively
Rank|Team|Δ Rating|Δ Ranking
1 | Dublin | -2.55 | 0
2 | Mayo | 1.41 | 1
3 | Kerry | -4.81 | -1
4 | Donegal | -2.53 | 0
5 | Tyrone | -1.31 | 0
6 | Cavan | 6.42 | 2
7 | Galway | 0.72 | 0
8 | Meath | 3.31 | 2
9 | Roscommon | -5.65 | -3
10 | Armagh | 0.05 | -1
11 | Cork | 0.66 | 1
12 | Monaghan | 1.23 | 2
13 | Laois | 6.06 | 4
14 | Tipperary | 18.34 | 11
15 | Kildare | -3.41 | -4
16 | Westmeath | 6.06 | 3
17 | Down | 3.40 | 1
18 | Clare | -5.84 | -5
19 | Derry | 2.76 | 1
20 | Longford | -6.07 | -4
21 | Offaly | -0.82 | 0
22 | Fermanagh | -10.82 | -7
23 | Wicklow | 11.00 | 7
24 | Antrim | -2.59 | -2
25 | Limerick | 1.68 | 1
26 | Leitrim | -1.38 | -2
27 | Carlow | -4.84 | -4
28 | Louth | -1.10 | -1
29 | Sligo | -2.12 | -1
30 | Wexford | 1.37 | 1
31 | Waterford | -6.67 | -2
32 | New York | 0.00 | 0
33 | London | -1.96 | 00 -
Thanks again for all the work you do on this, it’s brilliant.0
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It's great to be back thinking about GAA, long evenings, cider and ice cream........
As in previous years, I have ranked teams in each division based on their rating points. This has been previously shown to give some indication of whether a team will finish in relegation/promotion territory.
2021 NFL
Div 1 N| Rating| Div 1 S| Rating| Div 2 N| Rating| Div 2 S| Rating| Div 3 N| Rating| Div 3 S| Rating| Div 4 N| Rating| Div 4 S| Rating
Donegal|99|Dublin|112|Mayo|104|Cork|87|Cavan|98|Tipperary|85|Antrim|69|Carlow|65
Tyrone|98|Kerry|102|Meath|92|Laois|86|Derry|77|Offaly|72|Leitrim|68|Wexford|60
Armagh|91|Galway|93|Westmeath|82|Kildare|83|Longford|75|Wicklow|70|Louth|65|Waterford|57
Monaghan|87|Roscommon|92|Down|81|Clare|80|Fermanagh|71|Limerick|68|Sligo|62|||- In Division 1, it is hard to see beyond Dublin or Kerry as league winners, although one of the Ulster teams may pip Kerry in a semi-final. For relegation candidates, absolutely any of them could go down
- Mayo will be looking to bounce straight back out of Division 2, with Meath, Cork or potentially Kildare looking to join them. The remaining teams would be happy to hold their position
- The surprise packages of last year's championship, Cavan and Tipperary, stand head and shoulders above the other teams in Division 3, but both probably know that they will not have it their own way. Wicklow and Limerick to find the going too tough
- Antrim will have been disappointed to let last year's promotion challenge fizzle out. Any of the other teams could join them at the top
Previous year's finishes: tables are sorted by rating or ranking position prior to start of the league, colour indicate top 2 finish (green) or bottom 2 finish (red)
2020 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin |115|Roscommon|98|Cork|86|Antrim|72
Kerry |107|Cavan|91|Longford|81|Carlow|70
Mayo|103|Armagh|91|Down|78|Limerick|67
Donegal|101|Kildare|87|Derry|74|Sligo|64
Tyrone|99|Clare|85|Offaly|73|Waterford|63
Galway|93|Fermanagh|82|Leitrim|69|Wicklow|59
Meath|89|Laois|79|Tipperary|67|Wexford|59
Monaghan|85|Westmeath|76|Louth|66|London|52
2019 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 114|Donegal|95|Laois|86|Leitrim|70
Tyrone |106|Kildare|90|Carlow|80|Derry|70
Monaghan|104|Armagh|87|Longford|80|Antrim|66
Kerry|100|Cork|86|Down|77|Waterford|63
Galway|100|Clare|84|Sligo|74|Wexford|61
Mayo|91|Fermanagh|84|Westmeath|72|Limerick|61
Roscommon|88|Meath|80|Offaly|72|Wicklow|61
Cavan|85|Tipperary|78|Louth|63|London|52
2018 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111|Roscommon|91|Armagh|91|Carlow|73
Mayo |104|Cork|88|Westmeath|81|Laois|73
Kerry|101|Tipperary|85|Derry|79|Antrim|69
Tyrone|100|Clare|85|Longford|78|Limerick|65
Monaghan|93|Meath|83|Sligo|77|Leitrim|65
Galway|93|Down|82|Fermanagh|75|Waterford|57
Kildare|90|Cavan|82|Offaly|73|Wicklow|56
Donegal|88|Louth|69|Wexford|71|London|54
2017 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111 | Clare | 91| Tipperary | 92| Westmeath | 84
Kerry | 103 | Galway | 89 | Longford | 80| Wexford | 72
Mayo | 103 | Cork | 88| Laois | 78| Limerick | 71
Tyrone | 97 | Derry| 85 | Offaly | 77| Carlow | 64
Donegal | 96| Kildare | 84 | Sligo | 75| Leitrim | 63
Monaghan | 84| Fermanagh| 84| Armagh | 74 | Wicklow | 59
Roscommon | 83 | Meath | 82| Louth | 73 | London | 58
Cavan| 83 | Down | 73|Antrim | 68 | Waterford | 57
2016 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 109 | Tyrone | 96 | Kildare | 93 | Wexford | 76
Kerry | 104 | Galway | 90 | Westmeath | 81 | Antrim | 72
Mayo | 100 | Fermanagh| 89 | Sligo | 81 | Louth | 70
Donegal | 96 | Derry| 86 | Tipperary | 79 | Leitrim | 65
Monaghan | 96 | Meath | 83 | Longford | 78 | Wicklow | 61
Cork | 89 | Armagh | 83 | Clare | 73 | London | 61
Roscommon | 84 | Cavan | 75 | Limerick | 72 | Carlow | 61
Down| 77 | Laois | 72 | Offaly | 71 | Waterford | 56
2015 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Kerry | 1 | Kildare | 9 | Armagh | 7 | Longford | 22
Donegal | 2 | Meath | 10 | Tipperary | 15 | Antrim | 26
Dublin | 3 | Galway | 11 | Louth | 18 | Wicklow | 27
Mayo | 4 | Roscommon | 13 | Wexford | 19 | Leitrim | 28
Monaghan | 5 | Laois | 14 | Clare | 20 | Offaly | 29
Cork | 6 | Down | 16 | Fermanagh | 23 | London | 30
Tyrone | 8 | Cavan | 17 | Limerick | 24 | Carlow | 31
Derry | 12 | Westmeath | 21 | Sligo | 25 | Waterford | 32
2014 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Dublin | 1 | Donegal | 6 | Cavan | 12 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 2 | Monaghan | 7 | Wexford | 17 | Antrim | 26
Kerry | 3 | Meath | 9 | Roscommon | 19 | Clare | 27
Tyrone | 4 | Down | 10 | Limerick | 21 | Wicklow | 28
Cork | 5 | Laois | 11 | Fermanagh | 22 | London | 29
Kildare | 8 | Galway | 14 | Longford | 23 | Waterford | 30
Derry | 13 | Louth | 15 | Offaly | 24 | Leitrim | 31
Westmeath | 18 | Armagh | 16 | Sligo | 25 | Carlow | 32
2013 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Donegal | 1 | Laois | 9 | Meath | 10 | Limerick | 17
Cork | 2 | Armagh | 11 | Sligo | 15 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 3 | Wexford | 12 | Monaghan | 19 | Clare | 25
Kerry | 4 | Derry | 13 | Roscommon | 21 | Offaly | 27
Dublin | 5 | Galway | 14 | Antrim | 22 | Leitrim | 28
Tyrone | 6 | Westmeath | 16 | Cavan | 24 | Carlow | 29
Kildare | 7 | Longford | 18 | Wicklow | 26 | Waterford | 31
Down | 8 | Louth | 23 | Fermanagh | 30 | London | 33
The trend since 2013 shows that Munster have been moving up in the world. Perhaps an average rating point per province would be a more accurate indication of relative strengths of different provinces; I might have a look at it later on in the year.
Finishes per province (2013-2020 combined)
Province| Top 2 | Bottom 2
Leinster | 23 | 26
Ulster | 20 | 19
Connacht | 7 | 12*
Munster | 12 | 6
*Connacht's 12 bottom 2 finishes are not helped by London finishing last in Div 4 during 7 of the last 8 years.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]0 -
[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]laoisman11 wrote: »It's great to be back thinking about GAA, long evenings, cider and ice cream........
As in previous years, I have ranked teams in each division based on their rating points. This has been previously shown to give some indication of whether a team will finish in relegation/promotion territory.
2021 NFL
Div 1 N| Rating| Div 1 S| Rating| Div 2 N| Rating| Div 2 S| Rating| Div 3 N| Rating| Div 3 S| Rating| Div 4 N| Rating| Div 4 S| Rating
Donegal|99|Dublin|112|Mayo|104|Cork|87|Cavan|98|Tipperary|85|Antrim|69|Carlow|65
Tyrone|98|Kerry|102|Meath|92|Laois|86|Derry|77|Offaly|72|Leitrim|68|Wexford|60
Armagh|91|Galway|93|Westmeath|82|Kildare|83|Longford|75|Wicklow|70|Louth|65|Waterford|57
Monaghan|87|Roscommon|92|Down|81|Clare|80|Fermanagh|71|Limerick|68|Sligo|62|||- In Division 1, it is hard to see beyond Dublin or Kerry as league winners, although one of the Ulster teams may pip Kerry in a semi-final. For relegation candidates, absolutely any of them could go down
- Mayo will be looking to bounce straight back out of Division 2, with Meath, Cork or potentially Kildare looking to join them. The remaining teams would be happy to hold their position
- The surprise packages of last year's championship, Cavan and Tipperary, stand head and shoulders above the other teams in Division 3, but both probably know that they will not have it their own way. Wicklow and Limerick to find the going too tough
- Antrim will have been disappointed to let last year's promotion challenge fizzle out. Any of the other teams could join them at the top
Previous year's finishes: tables are sorted by rating or ranking position prior to start of the league, colour indicate top 2 finish (green) or bottom 2 finish (red)
2020 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin |115|Roscommon|98|Cork|86|Antrim|72
Kerry |107|Cavan|91|Longford|81|Carlow|70
Mayo|103|Armagh|91|Down|78|Limerick|67
Donegal|101|Kildare|87|Derry|74|Sligo|64
Tyrone|99|Clare|85|Offaly|73|Waterford|63
Galway|93|Fermanagh|82|Leitrim|69|Wicklow|59
Meath|89|Laois|79|Tipperary|67|Wexford|59
Monaghan|85|Westmeath|76|Louth|66|London|52
2019 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 114|Donegal|95|Laois|86|Leitrim|70
Tyrone |106|Kildare|90|Carlow|80|Derry|70
Monaghan|104|Armagh|87|Longford|80|Antrim|66
Kerry|100|Cork|86|Down|77|Waterford|63
Galway|100|Clare|84|Sligo|74|Wexford|61
Mayo|91|Fermanagh|84|Westmeath|72|Limerick|61
Roscommon|88|Meath|80|Offaly|72|Wicklow|61
Cavan|85|Tipperary|78|Louth|63|London|52
2018 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111|Roscommon|91|Armagh|91|Carlow|73
Mayo |104|Cork|88|Westmeath|81|Laois|73
Kerry|101|Tipperary|85|Derry|79|Antrim|69
Tyrone|100|Clare|85|Longford|78|Limerick|65
Monaghan|93|Meath|83|Sligo|77|Leitrim|65
Galway|93|Down|82|Fermanagh|75|Waterford|57
Kildare|90|Cavan|82|Offaly|73|Wicklow|56
Donegal|88|Louth|69|Wexford|71|London|54
2017 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111 | Clare | 91| Tipperary | 92| Westmeath | 84
Kerry | 103 | Galway | 89 | Longford | 80| Wexford | 72
Mayo | 103 | Cork | 88| Laois | 78| Limerick | 71
Tyrone | 97 | Derry| 85 | Offaly | 77| Carlow | 64
Donegal | 96| Kildare | 84 | Sligo | 75| Leitrim | 63
Monaghan | 84| Fermanagh| 84| Armagh | 74 | Wicklow | 59
Roscommon | 83 | Meath | 82| Louth | 73 | London | 58
Cavan| 83 | Down | 73|Antrim | 68 | Waterford | 57
2016 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 109 | Tyrone | 96 | Kildare | 93 | Wexford | 76
Kerry | 104 | Galway | 90 | Westmeath | 81 | Antrim | 72
Mayo | 100 | Fermanagh| 89 | Sligo | 81 | Louth | 70
Donegal | 96 | Derry| 86 | Tipperary | 79 | Leitrim | 65
Monaghan | 96 | Meath | 83 | Longford | 78 | Wicklow | 61
Cork | 89 | Armagh | 83 | Clare | 73 | London | 61
Roscommon | 84 | Cavan | 75 | Limerick | 72 | Carlow | 61
Down| 77 | Laois | 72 | Offaly | 71 | Waterford | 56
2015 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Kerry | 1 | Kildare | 9 | Armagh | 7 | Longford | 22
Donegal | 2 | Meath | 10 | Tipperary | 15 | Antrim | 26
Dublin | 3 | Galway | 11 | Louth | 18 | Wicklow | 27
Mayo | 4 | Roscommon | 13 | Wexford | 19 | Leitrim | 28
Monaghan | 5 | Laois | 14 | Clare | 20 | Offaly | 29
Cork | 6 | Down | 16 | Fermanagh | 23 | London | 30
Tyrone | 8 | Cavan | 17 | Limerick | 24 | Carlow | 31
Derry | 12 | Westmeath | 21 | Sligo | 25 | Waterford | 32
2014 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Dublin | 1 | Donegal | 6 | Cavan | 12 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 2 | Monaghan | 7 | Wexford | 17 | Antrim | 26
Kerry | 3 | Meath | 9 | Roscommon | 19 | Clare | 27
Tyrone | 4 | Down | 10 | Limerick | 21 | Wicklow | 28
Cork | 5 | Laois | 11 | Fermanagh | 22 | London | 29
Kildare | 8 | Galway | 14 | Longford | 23 | Waterford | 30
Derry | 13 | Louth | 15 | Offaly | 24 | Leitrim | 31
Westmeath | 18 | Armagh | 16 | Sligo | 25 | Carlow | 32
2013 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Donegal | 1 | Laois | 9 | Meath | 10 | Limerick | 17
Cork | 2 | Armagh | 11 | Sligo | 15 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 3 | Wexford | 12 | Monaghan | 19 | Clare | 25
Kerry | 4 | Derry | 13 | Roscommon | 21 | Offaly | 27
Dublin | 5 | Galway | 14 | Antrim | 22 | Leitrim | 28
Tyrone | 6 | Westmeath | 16 | Cavan | 24 | Carlow | 29
Kildare | 7 | Longford | 18 | Wicklow | 26 | Waterford | 31
Down | 8 | Louth | 23 | Fermanagh | 30 | London | 33
The trend since 2013 shows that Munster have been moving up in the world. Perhaps an average rating point per province would be a more accurate indication of relative strengths of different provinces; I might have a look at it later on in the year.
Finishes per province (2013-2020 combined)
Province| Top 2 | Bottom 2
Leinster | 23 | 26
Ulster | 20 | 19
Connacht | 7 | 12*
Munster | 12 | 6
*Connacht's 12 bottom 2 finishes are not helped by London finishing last in Div 4 during 7 of the last 8 years.
Looks like Roscommon contributed a lot of them too in Div 1
And a lot of top 2 finishes in Div 20 -
Prediction model output for this weekend's games:
Game|Prediction
Tyrone vs Donegal | Tyrone by 0.9
Kerry vs Galway | Kerry by 4.7
Mayo vs Down | Mayo by 10.6
Cork vs Kildare | Cork by 2
Longford vs Derry | Draw game
Fermanagh vs Cavan | Cavan by 9.8
Limerick vs Tipperary | Tipperary by 5.9
Louth vs Antrim | Draw game
Waterford vs Carlow | Carlow by 1.9
Monaghan vs Armagh | Armagh by 1.1
Roscommon vs Dublin | Dublin by 8.5
Meath vs Westmeath | Meath by 6.8
Clare vs Laois | Laois by 2.4
Wicklow vs Offaly | Offaly by 1.7
Sligo vs Leitrim | Draw game0 -
Big wins for Clare, Sligo, Limerick and Fermanagh in the inaugral round of this year's NFL, while Kerry edge closer to 2nd place.......
(I have finally managed to sort out that error which resulted in the ratings at the start of every season being slightly different to the previous season; it is present again here, but it will be the last time)
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 112.86 | 0.00
2 | = | Mayo | 102.76 | 0.00
3 | = | Kerry | 102.34 | 1.25
4 | = | Donegal | 99.87 | 1.65
5 | = | Tyrone | 95.11 | -1.65
6 | = | Cavan | 93.61 | -3.00
7 | = | Galway | 93.19 | -1.25
8 | = | Meath | 92.77 | 0.44
9 | ▲ | Armagh | 90.93 | 1.28
10 | ▼ | Roscommon | 90.68 | 0.00
11 | ▲ | Monaghan | 86.16 | -1.28
12 | ▼ | Cork | 85.72 | -1.93
13 | ▲ 2 | Kildare | 85.26 | 1.93
14 | ▼ | Laois | 82.37 | -3.39
15 | ▲ 3 | Clare | 81.55 | 3.39
16 | = | Westmeath | 81.27 | -0.44
17 | ▼ 3 | Tipperary | 81.17 | -3.00
18 | ▲ | Derry | 80.20 | 2.51
19 | ▼ 2 | Down | 80.04 | 0.00
20 | ▲ | Offaly | 74.23 | 1.13
21 | ▲ | Fermanagh | 74.21 | 3.00
22 | ▼ 2 | Longford | 73.46 | -2.51
23 | ▲ 3 | Limerick | 70.69 | 3.00
24 | = | Antrim | 70.29 | 1.14
25 | ▼ 2 | Wicklow | 68.29 | -1.13
26 | ▲ 2 | Carlow | 65.76 | 1.15
27 | ▼ 2 | Leitrim | 64.98 | -3.32
28 | ▲ 2 | Sligo | 64.50 | 3.32
29 | ▼ 2 | Louth | 64.42 | -1.14
30 | ▼ | Wexford | 61.22 | 0.00
31 | = | New York | 58.08 | 0.00
32 | = | Waterford | 56.15 | -1.15
33 | = | London | 50.93 | 0.00
34 | = | Kilkenny | 44.93 | 0.000 -
Mickey Harte has room for upward movement for his new team.0
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Prediction model output for Round 2:
Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Monaghan | Donegal by 6.5
Armagh vs Tyrone | Draw game
Westmeath vs Mayo | Mayo by 8.9
Laois vs Cork | Cork by 1.3
Derry vs Fermanagh | Derry by 4.7
Cavan vs Longford | Cavan by 10.2
Offaly vs Limerick | Offaly by 4.5
Tipperary vs Wicklow | Tipperary by 6.4
Wexford vs Waterford | Wexford by 4.7
Dublin vs Kerry | Dublin by 3.4
Galway vs Roscommon | Galway by 2.9
Down vs Meath | Meath by 5.3
Kildare vs Clare | Kildare by 4.1
Leitrim vs Louth | Draw game
Antrim vs Sligo | Antrim by 40
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