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Football ranking table

1…1718202223…29

Comments

  • #952
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Model output for this weekend's games:
    Game|Prediction
    Dublin vs Monaghan | Dublin by 12.6
    Armagh vs Kildare | Armagh by 2
    Waterford vs Wexford | Wexford by 1.2
    Meath vs Mayo | Mayo by 4.3
    Donegal vs Galway | Donegal by 4
    Tyrone vs Kerry | Kerry by 3.9
    Westmeath vs Fermanagh | Fermanagh by 1.3
    Laois vs Cavan | Cavan by 1.9
    Roscommon vs Clare | Roscommon by 6
    Derry vs Tipperary | Derry by 4.3
    Longford vs Leitrim | Longford by 6
    Louth vs Offaly | Offaly by 2.2
    Cork vs Down | Cork by 4.9
    Carlow vs Limerick | Draw game
    Wicklow vs Sligo | Sligo by 1.2
    London vs Antrim | Antrim by 10.5


  • #953
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    celt262 wrote: »
    Cavan vs Westmeath Cavan by 7.3

    I think the model will need a reboot after this weekend in relation to Cavan.

    Past performance is not an indicator of future success. ;)


  • #954
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Lots of rating points exchanged but little movement overall after Round 3.

    What did stand out though was that Limerick are at their highest ranking since September 2015….…..and that Louth had never descended as low as 29th place in the rankings before !

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 113.30 | -1.50
    2 | = | Kerry | 105.58 | -2.29
    3 | ▲ | Mayo | 102.26 | 0.43
    4 | ▼ | Donegal | 99.34 | -2.68
    5 | = | Tyrone | 99.24 | 2.29
    6 | ▲ | Galway | 95.88 | 2.68
    7 | ▼ | Roscommon | 94.21 | 0.46
    8 | = | Cavan | 91.53 | 1.94
    9 | = | Armagh | 90.42 | 1.34
    10 | ▲ | Monaghan | 89.02 | 1.50
    11 | ▼ | Meath | 87.67 | -0.43
    12 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.34
    13 | = | Kildare | 84.65 | -1.34
    14 | = | Clare | 84.39 | -0.46
    15 | = | Laois | 82.60 | -1.94
    16 | = | Fermanagh | 82.33 | -1.82
    17 | = | Longford | 80.73 | 0.17
    18 | = | Westmeath | 79.79 | 1.82
    19 | = | Down | 77.28 | -0.34
    20 | = | Offaly | 74.63 | 0.85
    21 | = | Derry | 73.18 | 0.89
    22 | = | Antrim | 70.02 | 0.00
    23 | ▲ 2 | Limerick | 69.64 | 1.66
    24 | ▼ | Leitrim | 69.50 | -0.17
    25 | ▼ | Tipperary | 68.26 | -0.89
    26 | = | Sligo | 65.02 | -1.75
    27 | = | Carlow | 64.88 | -1.66
    28 | ▲ | Wexford | 63.81 | 1.53
    29 | ▼ | Louth | 63.47 | -0.85
    30 | = | Wicklow | 63.04 | 1.75
    31 | = | Waterford | 58.04 | -1.53
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 51.14 | 0.00


  • #955
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output for this weekend's games.

    Game|Prediction
    Dublin vs Donegal | Dublin by 7.3
    Fermanagh vs Cavan | Cavan by 3.5
    Down vs Longford | Down by 1
    Tipperary vs Cork | Cork by 7.5
    Sligo vs Waterford | Sligo by 5
    Kerry vs Meath | Kerry by 8.6
    Galway vs Tyrone | Draw game
    Monaghan vs Mayo | Mayo by 5.2
    Clare vs Laois | Clare by 1.2
    Westmeath vs Armagh | Armagh by 4.3
    Kildare vs Roscommon | Roscommon by 2.1
    Derry vs Louth | Derry by 5
    Leitrim vs Offaly | Offaly by 2.1
    Wexford vs London | Wexford by 9.3
    Limerick vs Wicklow | Limerick by 2.9
    Antrim vs Carlow | Antrim by 5.2


  • #956
    seligehgit
    Registered Users Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    Wow that Mayo Monaghan prediction is a bit of an outlier based on current form.:)


  • #957
    jj72
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭jj72


    seligehgit wrote: »
    Wow that Mayo Monaghan prediction is a bit of an outlier based on current form.:)

    The form that sees both on 3 points? :confused:


  • #958
    seligehgit
    Registered Users Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    jj72 wrote: »
    The form that sees both on 3 points? :confused:

    Mayo were blessed to get anything in Ballybofey and got out of jail in Navan.

    Monaghan lost by the minimum to Galway.Put Tyrone to the sword and were unlucky to not get the win in Croker.

    Big difference in the form line IMO.


  • #959
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 7,712 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    seligehgit wrote: »
    Mayo were blessed to get anything in Ballybofey and got out of jail in Navan.

    Monaghan lost by the minimum to Galway.Put Tyrone to the sword and were unlucky to not get the win in Croker.

    Big difference in the form line IMO.

    This is just going on results though isn’t it?


  • #960
    tayto lover
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 52,807 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Meath are due to take a big scalp, they usually do.


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  • #961
    White lighting
    Registered Users Posts: 592 ✭✭✭White lighting


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Meath are due to take a big scalp, they usually do.


    I would be very surprised if Meath won any game in the League. Poor side made poorer by loads of injuries and a poor manager who is not up to it.


  • #962
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,874 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Meath are due to take a big scalp, they usually do.

    We do?

    The last significant league scalp I can remember is Galway 2017, and even then it wasn't a major shock at the time. Last big championship scalp (relative to each team's standing at the time) was probably Kildare 2012.

    Even getting promoted and reaching the AI QFs last year we didn't take any big scalps.


  • #963
    aidan24326
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭aidan24326


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Meath are due to take a big scalp, they usually do.

    Hard to see Meath getting a result in Killarney though, and defeat tomorrow will leave them facing very likely relegation.


  • #964
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Sligo at their lowest ranking since 2014 following their surprise loss to Waterford!

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 113.30 | 0.00
    2 | = | Kerry | 105.58 | 0.00
    3 | ▲ | Donegal | 99.34 | 0.00
    4 | ▼ | Mayo | 98.47 | -3.79
    5 | ▲ | Galway | 98.18 | 2.30
    6 | ▼ | Tyrone | 96.94 | -2.30
    7 | = | Roscommon | 95.05 | 0.84
    8 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 92.81 | 3.79
    9 | ▼ | Cavan | 92.41 | 0.88
    10 | ▼ | Armagh | 89.66 | -0.76
    11 | = | Meath | 87.67 | 0.00
    12 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
    13 | ▲ 2 | Laois | 84.58 | 1.98
    14 | ▼ | Kildare | 83.81 | -0.84
    15 | ▼ | Clare | 82.41 | -1.98
    16 | = | Fermanagh | 81.45 | -0.88
    17 | ▲ | Westmeath | 80.55 | 0.76
    18 | ▼ | Longford | 79.18 | -1.55
    19 | = | Down | 78.83 | 1.55
    20 | = | Offaly | 76.56 | 1.93
    21 | = | Derry | 73.41 | 0.23
    22 | ▲ | Limerick | 70.45 | 0.81
    23 | ▼ | Antrim | 69.21 | -0.81
    24 | ▲ | Tipperary | 68.26 | 0.00
    25 | ▼ | Leitrim | 67.57 | -1.93
    26 | ▲ | Carlow | 65.69 | 0.81
    27 | ▲ | Wexford | 63.81 | 0.00
    28 | ▲ | Louth | 63.24 | -0.23
    29 | ▼ 3 | Sligo | 62.52 | -2.50
    30 | = | Wicklow | 62.23 | -0.81
    31 | = | Waterford | 60.54 | 2.50
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 51.14 | 0.00


  • #965
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output for Round 5

    Game|Prediction
    Mayo vs Kerry | Kerry by 2.3
    Tyrone vs Dublin | Dublin by 5.8
    Laois vs Kildare | Draw game
    London vs Wicklow | Wicklow by 6
    Wexford vs Sligo | Wexford by 1.1
    Waterford vs Carlow | Carlow by 1.1
    Donegal vs Monaghan | Donegal by 4.2
    Meath vs Galway | Galway by 2
    Fermanagh vs Armagh | Armagh by 2.7
    Roscommon vs Westmeath | Roscommon by 7.9
    Cavan vs Clare | Cavan by 5.9
    Louth vs Leitrim | Louth by 1.2
    Cork vs Derry | Cork by 6.2
    Longford vs Tipperary | Longford by 5.7
    Offaly vs Down | Draw game
    Antrim vs Limerick | Antrim by 3.3


  • #966
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    I was waiting for the Armagh-Fermanagh game to complete the fixtures from round 5. Some minor shuffling of places, with Louth gone to a new all time low of 30th.

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 110.46 | -2.84
    2 | = | Kerry | 106.67 | 1.09
    3 | = | Donegal | 100.16 | 0.82
    4 | ▲ 2 | Tyrone | 99.78 | 2.84
    5 | = | Galway | 98.93 | 0.75
    6 | ▼ 2 | Mayo | 97.38 | -1.09
    7 | = | Roscommon | 95.05 | 0.00
    8 | = | Monaghan | 91.99 | -0.82
    9 | ▲ | Armagh | 91.13 | 1.47
    10 | ▼ | Cavan | 89.61 | -2.80
    11 | = | Meath | 86.92 | -0.75
    12 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
    13 | ▲ | Kildare | 85.69 | 1.88
    14 | ▲ | Clare | 85.21 | 2.80
    15 | ▼ 2 | Laois | 82.70 | -1.88
    16 | ▲ 3 | Down | 81.19 | 2.36
    17 | = | Westmeath | 80.55 | 0.00
    18 | ▼ 2 | Fermanagh | 79.98 | -1.47
    19 | ▼ | Longford | 79.29 | 0.11
    20 | = | Offaly | 74.20 | -2.36
    21 | = | Derry | 73.41 | 0.00
    22 | ▲ | Antrim | 71.20 | 1.99
    23 | ▲ 2 | Leitrim | 69.62 | 2.05
    24 | ▼ 2 | Limerick | 68.46 | -1.99
    25 | ▼ | Tipperary | 68.15 | -0.11
    26 | = | Carlow | 65.48 | -0.21
    27 | ▲ 2 | Sligo | 64.45 | 1.93
    28 | ▲ 2 | Wicklow | 63.27 | 1.04
    29 | ▼ 2 | Wexford | 61.88 | -1.93
    30 | ▼ 2 | Louth | 61.19 | -2.05
    31 | = | Waterford | 60.75 | 0.21
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 50.10 | -1.04


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  • #967
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Output from the prediction model below...........a draw accumulator looks promising!

    Game|Prediction
    Donegal vs Tyrone | Donegal by 1.4
    Armagh vs Roscommon | Draw game
    Waterford vs London | Waterford by 7.2
    Carlow vs Sligo | Draw game
    Galway vs Mayo | Draw game
    Dublin vs Meath | Dublin by 10.4
    Monaghan vs Kerry | Kerry by 6.1
    Clare vs Fermanagh | Clare by 2.6
    Westmeath vs Laois | Draw game
    Kildare vs Cavan | Draw game
    Down vs Leitrim | Down by 6.9
    Cork vs Louth | Cork by 10.8
    Derry vs Longford | Draw game
    Tipperary vs Offaly | Offaly by 2.1
    Wicklow vs Antrim | Antrim by 3.5
    Limerick vs Wexford | Limerick by 2.2


  • #968
    What.Now
    Registered Users Posts: 336 ✭✭What.Now


    Question - Does time lag bring teams ranking points down. For example if no teams are able to play in the next, say 10 years, would the ranking points still remain as in post No.966.


  • #969
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    What.Now wrote: »
    Question - Does time lag bring teams ranking points down. For example if no teams are able to play in the next, say 10 years, would the ranking points still remain as in post No.966.

    No, no effect of time lag, either in the event that all teams do not play or that an individual team does not play. It is a rating point exchange system, if you do not play, you cannot exchange points.


  • #970
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Very excited that inter-county football is back up and running!

    Some minor changes after last weekend's games, but for real changes, we will have to wait for championship, which is just around the corner :-)

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 110.46 | 0.00
    2 | = | Kerry | 107.00 | 0.33
    3 | = | Donegal | 101.32 | 1.16
    4 | ▲ 2 | Mayo | 100.31 | 2.93
    5 | ▼ | Tyrone | 98.62 | -1.16
    6 | ▲ | Roscommon | 96.46 | 1.41
    7 | ▼ 2 | Galway | 96.00 | -2.93
    8 | = | Monaghan | 91.66 | -0.33
    9 | = | Armagh | 89.72 | -1.41
    10 | = | Cavan | 88.02 | -1.59
    11 | ▲ 2 | Kildare | 87.28 | 1.59
    12 | ▼ | Meath | 86.92 | 0.00
    13 | ▼ | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
    14 | = | Clare | 85.89 | 0.68
    15 | ▲ 2 | Westmeath | 82.67 | 2.12
    16 | = | Down | 81.19 | 0.00
    17 | ▼ 2 | Laois | 80.58 | -2.12
    18 | = | Fermanagh | 79.30 | -0.68
    19 | = | Longford | 76.61 | -2.68
    20 | ▲ | Derry | 76.09 | 2.68
    21 | ▼ | Offaly | 72.40 | -1.80
    22 | ▲ 3 | Tipperary | 69.95 | 1.80
    23 | = | Leitrim | 69.62 | 0.00
    24 | ▼ 2 | Antrim | 68.21 | -2.99
    25 | ▲ | Carlow | 66.58 | 1.10
    26 | ▲ 2 | Wicklow | 66.26 | 2.99
    27 | ▼ 3 | Limerick | 66.00 | -2.46
    28 | ▲ | Wexford | 64.34 | 2.46
    29 | ▼ 2 | Sligo | 63.35 | -1.10
    30 | = | Louth | 61.19 | 0.00
    31 | = | Waterford | 60.75 | 0.00
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00


  • #971
    dr.kenneth noisewater
    Registered Users Posts: 5,730 ✭✭✭dr.kenneth noisewater


    what happens for games given as walkovers?


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  • #972
    conor05
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 985 ✭✭✭conor05


    Is there a hurling rankings table anywhere?


  • #973
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 7,712 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    conor05 wrote: »
    Is there a hurling rankings table anywhere?

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057160431


  • #974
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    dr.kenneth noisewater wrote: »
    what happens for games given as walkovers?

    No game played, no exchange of rating points.


  • #975
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    The big winners from this final round of the league were Louth, who gained 4.5 rating points following a big win over an already promoted Down side. I'm sure neighbourly love was also in play in that result!

    In terms of the overall league, the big movers were:
    • Wicklow who jumped 6 ranking places to end at their highest level since 2014
    • Monaghan rose 5 ranking places after a solid Division 1 campaign
    • Cavan, Carlow and Longford all fell 4 ranking places.

    Onwards and upwards! The championship rolls into town in a few days :D

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.53
    2 | = | Kerry | 107.95 | 0.95
    3 | ▲ 2 | Tyrone | 100.59 | 1.97
    4 | ▼ | Donegal | 100.37 | -0.95
    5 | ▼ | Mayo | 98.34 | -1.97
    6 | = | Roscommon | 97.42 | 0.96
    7 | = | Galway | 95.47 | -0.53
    8 | ▲ | Armagh | 91.14 | 1.42
    9 | ▼ | Monaghan | 90.89 | -0.77
    10 | ▲ | Kildare | 88.02 | 0.74
    11 | ▲ | Meath | 87.69 | 0.77
    12 | ▼ 2 | Cavan | 87.06 | -0.96
    13 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
    14 | = | Clare | 84.47 | -1.42
    15 | ▲ 2 | Laois | 83.09 | 2.51
    16 | ▼ | Westmeath | 81.93 | -0.74
    17 | ▲ 3 | Derry | 77.52 | 1.43
    18 | = | Fermanagh | 76.79 | -2.51
    19 | ▼ 3 | Down | 76.69 | -4.50
    20 | ▼ | Longford | 76.61 | 0.00
    21 | ▲ | Tipperary | 71.72 | 1.77
    22 | ▼ | Offaly | 70.97 | -1.43
    23 | ▲ | Antrim | 69.34 | 1.13
    24 | ▲ 3 | Wicklow | 67.87 | 1.61
    25 | ▼ 3 | Leitrim | 67.85 | -1.77
    26 | ▲ | Limerick | 67.53 | 1.53
    27 | ▼ 3 | Carlow | 66.58 | 0.00
    28 | ▲ 3 | Louth | 65.69 | 4.50
    29 | ▼ | Wexford | 62.73 | -1.61
    30 | ▼ | Sligo | 61.82 | -1.53
    31 | = | Waterford | 59.62 | -1.13
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00


  • #976
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output for this weekend's games below.

    It will be interesting to see if, and if so, by how far, predictions skew from results this year compared to previous years.

    Game|Prediction
    Waterford vs Limerick | Limerick by 1.9
    Monaghan vs Cavan | Monaghan by 1.8
    Leitrim vs Mayo | Mayo by 12.9
    Louth vs Longford | Longford by 3.1
    Offaly vs Carlow | Offaly by 5.4
    Wexford vs Wicklow | Draw game
    Tipperary vs Clare | Clare by 4.2
    Donegal vs Tyrone | Donegal by 1.1
    Derry vs Armagh | Armagh by 3.8


  • #977
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,039 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Donegal vs Tyrone Donegal by 1.1
    Derry vs Armagh Armagh by 3.8

    Not so far off on the last two.


  • #978
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    Not so far off on the last two.

    5 of 9 within 2 points, that's outstanding!!! ;)


  • #979
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,039 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    5 of 9 within 2 points, that's outstanding!!! ;)


    I always thought 7 of 9 was outstanding, especially in the new Picard series.
    But good work on the ranking.


  • #980
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Difficult to believe that after the first round of the championship, that the teams that were ranked 3rd and 9th are already out of the running! Strange times indeed.

    Tipp and Cavan were the big winners from the first weekend of the championship, with 4.95 and 4.37 rating points gained from wins over Clare and Monaghan, respectively. Limerick also gained a respectable 3.03 rating points following a bonus-point away win over Waterford.


    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
    2 | = | Kerry | 107.95 | 0.00
    3 | ▲ | Donegal | 102.81 | 2.44
    4 | ▲ | Mayo | 98.34 | 0.00
    5 | ▼ 2 | Tyrone | 98.15 | -2.44
    6 | = | Roscommon | 97.42 | 0.00
    7 | = | Galway | 95.47 | 0.00
    8 | = | Armagh | 92.02 | 0.88
    9 | ▲ 3 | Cavan | 91.43 | 4.37
    10 | = | Kildare | 88.02 | 0.00
    11 | = | Meath | 87.69 | 0.00
    12 | ▲ | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
    13 | ▼ 4 | Monaghan | 86.52 | -4.37
    14 | ▲ | Laois | 83.09 | 0.00
    15 | ▲ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
    16 | ▼ 2 | Clare | 79.52 | -4.95
    17 | ▲ 3 | Longford | 77.43 | 0.82
    18 | = | Fermanagh | 76.79 | 0.00
    19 | = | Down | 76.69 | 0.00
    20 | ▲ | Tipperary | 76.67 | 4.95
    21 | ▼ 4 | Derry | 76.64 | -0.88
    22 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 1.52
    23 | ▲ 3| Limerick | 70.56 | 3.03
    24 | = | Wicklow | 70.44 | 2.57
    25 | ▼ 2 | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
    26 | ▼ | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
    27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | -1.52
    28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | -0.82
    29 | ▲ | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
    30 | ▼ | Wexford | 60.16 | -2.57
    31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | -3.03
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00


  • #981
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output for this weekend's games......just as well Sligo decided not to show up, a 15 point beating was in the making.

    Game|Prediction
    Galway vs Sligo | Galway by 15
    Dublin vs Westmeath | Dublin by 13.5
    Limerick vs Tipperary | Tipperary by 1.4
    Cavan vs Antrim | Cavan by 9.6
    Roscommon vs Mayo | Draw game
    Longford vs Laois | Laois by 1.6
    Wicklow vs Meath | Meath by 9.1
    Offaly vs Kildare | Kildare by 6.2
    Cork vs Kerry | Kerry by 7.7
    Fermanagh vs Down | Draw game


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  • #982
    seligehgit
    Registered Users Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    Prediction model output for this weekend's games......just as well Sligo decided not to show up, a 15 point beating was in the making.

    Game|Prediction
    Galway vs Sligo | Galway by 15
    Dublin vs Westmeath | Dublin by 13.5
    Limerick vs Tipperary | Tipperary by 1.4
    Cavan vs Antrim | Cavan by 9.6
    Roscommon vs Mayo | Draw game
    Longford vs Laois | Laois by 1.6
    Wicklow vs Meath | Meath by 9.1
    Offaly vs Kildare | Kildare by 6.2
    Cork vs Kerry | Kerry by 7.7
    Fermanagh vs Down | Draw game

    So who wins the penalty shoot out?:D


  • #983
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    • The first major shock of the championship results in Cork jumping a huge 5 ranking places; they are now at their highest rank since July 2016
    • Both Down and Mayo gained more than 5 rating points following bonus-point wins over Fermanagh and Roscommon (both games were predicted to be much much closer!)
    • Despite losing heavily, Wicklow move up one spot to 23rd, their highest ranking since June 2014
    • The number of teams left is getting surprisingly thin-looking!

    Remaining teams in bold
    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
    2 | ▲ 2 | Mayo | 103.46 | 5.12
    3 | = | Donegal | 102.81 | 0.00
    4 | ▼ 2 | Kerry | 101.95 | -6.00
    5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
    6 | ▲ | Galway | 95.47 | 0.00
    7 | ▲ 5 | Cork | 92.53 | 6.00
    8 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 92.30 | -5.12
    9 | ▼ | Armagh | 92.02 | 0.00
    10 | ▼ | Cavan | 91.43 | 0.00
    11 | ▼ | Kildare | 88.02 | 0.00
    12 | ▼ | Meath | 87.92 | 0.23
    13 | = | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
    14 | = | Laois | 85.56 | 2.47
    15 | ▲ 4 | Down | 82.12 | 5.43
    16 | ▼ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
    17 | ▼ | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
    18 | ▲ 2 | Tipperary | 79.05 | 2.38
    19 | ▲ 2 | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
    20 | ▼ 3 | Longford | 74.96 | -2.47
    21 | ▲ | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
    22 | ▼ 4 | Fermanagh | 71.36 | -5.43
    23 | ▲ | Wicklow | 70.21 | -0.23
    24 | ▲ | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
    25 | ▼ 2 | Limerick | 68.18 | -2.38
    26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
    27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
    28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
    29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
    30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
    31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00


  • #984
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output for this weekend's games.......

    Game|Prediction
    Donegal vs Armagh | Donegal by 3.8
    Galway vs Mayo | Mayo by 1.3
    Meath vs Kildare | Meath by 0.9
    Down vs Cavan | Cavan by 4.4
    Dublin vs Laois | Dublin by 13.2


  • #985
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,874 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    Prediction model output for this weekend's games.......

    Game|Prediction
    Donegal vs Armagh | Donegal by 3.8
    Galway vs Mayo | Mayo by 1.3
    Meath vs Kildare | Meath by 0.9
    Down vs Cavan | Cavan by 4.4
    Dublin vs Laois | Dublin by 13.2

    Don't think I've ever seen a <1 point margin predicted before, I thought that just got called as a draw.

    I'm sure I'm missing something, but how are Meath predicted to win, when we're ranked beneath Kildare by a tiny amount, and it's a neutral venue?


  • #986
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    Don't think I've ever seen a <1 point margin predicted before, I thought that just got called as a draw.

    I'm sure I'm missing something, but how are Meath predicted to win, when we're ranked beneath Kildare by a tiny amount, and it's a neutral venue?

    Can't remember exactly how I have set the code but it is probably given as a draw when the predicted margin is less than 0.5. Will check it out when I run this weekend's results.

    The predictions are made on past performances, so Meath must have repeatedly outperformed Kildare in previous meets, and the model takes this into account. I don't think I need to say it, but past performance is no guarantee of future results :cool:


  • #987
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,874 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    Can't remember exactly how I have set the code but it is probably given as a draw when the predicted margin is less than 0.5. Will check it out when I run this weekend's results.

    The predictions are made on past performances, so Meath must have repeatedly outperformed Kildare in previous meets, and the model takes this into account. I don't think I need to say it, but past performance is no guarantee of future results :cool:


    Fair enough, I didn't know it took the specific head to head into account...


  • #988
    Cavan_King
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,182 ✭✭✭Cavan_King


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    Prediction model output for this weekend's games.......

    Game|Prediction
    Donegal vs Armagh | Donegal by 3.8
    Galway vs Mayo | Mayo by 1.3
    Meath vs Kildare | Meath by 0.9
    Down vs Cavan | Cavan by 4.4
    Dublin vs Laois | Dublin by 13.2

    Yet Down are favourites with the bookies 4/6 while Cavan are 6/4.


  • #989
    Blackjack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,626 ✭✭✭Blackjack


    Cavan_King wrote: »
    Yet Down are favourites with the bookies 4/6 while Cavan are 6/4.

    Bookies odds will change depending on how much money had gone on, and would continue to change as more money goes on.


  • #990
    enricoh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,026 ✭✭✭enricoh


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    Prediction model output for this weekend's games.......

    Game|Prediction
    Donegal vs Armagh | Donegal by 3.8
    Galway vs Mayo | Mayo by 1.3
    Meath vs Kildare | Meath by 0.9
    Down vs Cavan | Cavan by 4.4
    Dublin vs Laois | Dublin by 13.2

    Good going , I should have stuck a tenner on!


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  • #991
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Meath's bonus-point win over Kildare give them the most rating points exchanged after this weekend's games, while Cavan make it into the top 8, something which used to be super, but now, nobody is so sure.......

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
    2 | = | Mayo | 105.46 | 2.00
    3 | = | Donegal | 104.07 | 1.26
    4 | = | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
    5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
    6 | = | Galway | 93.47 | -2.00
    7 | ▲ 3 | Cavan | 92.57 | 1.14
    8 | ▼ | Cork | 92.53 | 0.00
    9 | ▲ 3 | Meath | 92.45 | 4.53
    10 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
    11 | ▼ 2 | Armagh | 90.76 | -1.26
    12 | ▲ | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
    13 | ▲ | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
    14 | ▼ 3 | Kildare | 83.49 | -4.53
    15 | ▲ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
    16 | ▼ | Down | 80.98 | -1.14
    17 | = | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
    18 | = | Tipperary | 79.05 | 0.00
    19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
    20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
    21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
    22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
    23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
    24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
    25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
    26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
    27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
    28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
    29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
    30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
    31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00


  • #992
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    3 provincial finals, and only one of them to be particularly close. Apparently.

    Game|Prediction
    Dublin vs Meath | Dublin by 9.5
    Donegal vs Cavan | Donegal by 4
    Cork vs Tipperary | Cork by 8.5


  • #993
    laoisman11
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    CrabRevolution wrote: »
    Don't think I've ever seen a <1 point margin predicted before, I thought that just got called as a draw.

    I'm sure I'm missing something, but how are Meath predicted to win, when we're ranked beneath Kildare by a tiny amount, and it's a neutral venue?

    I checked the code, anything less than 0.8 as a winning margin gets called a draw.....can't remember why I chose 0.8 tbh.......


  • #994
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,039 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    I think we all thought these rankings wouldn't be moving much for the rest of the season, I expect Tipp will ascend by one of the biggest leaps in one day.


  • #995
    feargale
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,636 ✭✭✭feargale


    Munster Championship:
    Tipp beat Limerick by one and both Cork and Clare by three.
    Cork beat Kerry by two.

    Therefore Munster counties rank as follows:
    1. Tipperary
    2. Limerick
    3. Cork and Clare jointly
    5. Kerry
    6. Waterford.


  • #996
    seligehgit
    Registered Users Posts: 9,286 ✭✭✭seligehgit


    feargale wrote: »
    Munster Championship:
    Tipp beat Limerick by one and both Cork and Clare by three.
    Cork beat Kerry by two.

    Therefore Munster counties rank as follows:
    1. Tipperary
    2. Limerick
    3. Cork and Clare jointly
    5. Kerry
    6. Waterford.

    No offence feargale but I think that's a tad simplistic.:)

    I do not think the majority of people would rank the counties below Tipp in that order.


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  • #997
    feargale
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,636 ✭✭✭feargale


    seligehgit wrote: »
    No offence feargale but I think that's a tad simplistic.:)

    I do not think the majority of people would rank the counties below Tipp in that order.

    Dammit. And there was me thinking I could finally inject some humility into my Kerry neighbour. Notwithstanding what you say I think I'll persist with my analysis where he is concerned.


  • #998
    Cavan_King
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,182 ✭✭✭Cavan_King


    laoisman11 wrote: »
    Meath's bonus-point win over Kildare give them the most rating points exchanged after this weekend's games, while Cavan make it into the top 8, something which used to be super, but now, nobody is so sure.......

    #|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
    1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
    2 | = | Mayo | 105.46 | 2.00
    3 | = | Donegal | 104.07 | 1.26
    4 | = | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
    5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
    6 | = | Galway | 93.47 | -2.00
    7 | ▲ 3 | Cavan | 92.57 | 1.14
    8 | ▼ | Cork | 92.53 | 0.00
    9 | ▲ 3 | Meath | 92.45 | 4.53
    10 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
    11 | ▼ 2 | Armagh | 90.76 | -1.26
    12 | ▲ | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
    13 | ▲ | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
    14 | ▼ 3 | Kildare | 83.49 | -4.53
    15 | ▲ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
    16 | ▼ | Down | 80.98 | -1.14
    17 | = | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
    18 | = | Tipperary | 79.05 | 0.00
    19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
    20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
    21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
    22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
    23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
    24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
    25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
    26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
    27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
    28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
    29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
    30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
    31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
    32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
    33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00

    How high will Cavan go after our win?


  • #999
    washman3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭washman3


    feargale wrote: »
    Munster Championship:
    Tipp beat Limerick by one and both Cork and Clare by three.
    Cork beat Kerry by two.

    Therefore Munster counties rank as follows:
    1. Tipperary
    2. Limerick
    3. Cork and Clare jointly
    5. Kerry
    6. Waterford.


    Have to agree with this.......:):)


  • #1000
    padd b1975
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,824 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    Cavan_King wrote: »
    How high will Cavan go after our win?

    4th I'd think.


  • #1001
    tanko
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,307 ✭✭✭tanko


    padd b1975 wrote: »
    4th I'd think.

    6th i'd say.


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