Football ranking table

CrabRevolution

tayto lover wrote: »

Meath are due to take a big scalp, they usually do.

We do?

The last significant league scalp I can remember is Galway 2017, and even then it wasn't a major shock at the time. Last big championship scalp (relative to each team's standing at the time) was probably Kildare 2012.

Even getting promoted and reaching the AI QFs last year we didn't take any big scalps.

aidan24326

tayto lover wrote: »

Meath are due to take a big scalp, they usually do.

Hard to see Meath getting a result in Killarney though, and defeat tomorrow will leave them facing very likely relegation.

laoisman11

Sligo at their lowest ranking since 2014 following their surprise loss to Waterford!

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 113.30 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 105.58 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Donegal | 99.34 | 0.00
4 | ▼ | Mayo | 98.47 | -3.79
5 | ▲ | Galway | 98.18 | 2.30
6 | ▼ | Tyrone | 96.94 | -2.30
7 | = | Roscommon | 95.05 | 0.84
8 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 92.81 | 3.79
9 | ▼ | Cavan | 92.41 | 0.88
10 | ▼ | Armagh | 89.66 | -0.76
11 | = | Meath | 87.67 | 0.00
12 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
13 | ▲ 2 | Laois | 84.58 | 1.98
14 | ▼ | Kildare | 83.81 | -0.84
15 | ▼ | Clare | 82.41 | -1.98
16 | = | Fermanagh | 81.45 | -0.88
17 | ▲ | Westmeath | 80.55 | 0.76
18 | ▼ | Longford | 79.18 | -1.55
19 | = | Down | 78.83 | 1.55
20 | = | Offaly | 76.56 | 1.93
21 | = | Derry | 73.41 | 0.23
22 | ▲ | Limerick | 70.45 | 0.81
23 | ▼ | Antrim | 69.21 | -0.81
24 | ▲ | Tipperary | 68.26 | 0.00
25 | ▼ | Leitrim | 67.57 | -1.93
26 | ▲ | Carlow | 65.69 | 0.81
27 | ▲ | Wexford | 63.81 | 0.00
28 | ▲ | Louth | 63.24 | -0.23
29 | ▼ 3 | Sligo | 62.52 | -2.50
30 | = | Wicklow | 62.23 | -0.81
31 | = | Waterford | 60.54 | 2.50
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.14 | 0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output for Round 5

Game|Prediction
Mayo vs Kerry | Kerry by 2.3
Tyrone vs Dublin | Dublin by 5.8
Laois vs Kildare | Draw game
London vs Wicklow | Wicklow by 6
Wexford vs Sligo | Wexford by 1.1
Waterford vs Carlow | Carlow by 1.1
Donegal vs Monaghan | Donegal by 4.2
Meath vs Galway | Galway by 2
Fermanagh vs Armagh | Armagh by 2.7
Roscommon vs Westmeath | Roscommon by 7.9
Cavan vs Clare | Cavan by 5.9
Louth vs Leitrim | Louth by 1.2
Cork vs Derry | Cork by 6.2
Longford vs Tipperary | Longford by 5.7
Offaly vs Down | Draw game
Antrim vs Limerick | Antrim by 3.3

laoisman11

I was waiting for the Armagh-Fermanagh game to complete the fixtures from round 5. Some minor shuffling of places, with Louth gone to a new all time low of 30th.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.46 | -2.84
2 | = | Kerry | 106.67 | 1.09
3 | = | Donegal | 100.16 | 0.82
4 | ▲ 2 | Tyrone | 99.78 | 2.84
5 | = | Galway | 98.93 | 0.75
6 | ▼ 2 | Mayo | 97.38 | -1.09
7 | = | Roscommon | 95.05 | 0.00
8 | = | Monaghan | 91.99 | -0.82
9 | ▲ | Armagh | 91.13 | 1.47
10 | ▼ | Cavan | 89.61 | -2.80
11 | = | Meath | 86.92 | -0.75
12 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
13 | ▲ | Kildare | 85.69 | 1.88
14 | ▲ | Clare | 85.21 | 2.80
15 | ▼ 2 | Laois | 82.70 | -1.88
16 | ▲ 3 | Down | 81.19 | 2.36
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.55 | 0.00
18 | ▼ 2 | Fermanagh | 79.98 | -1.47
19 | ▼ | Longford | 79.29 | 0.11
20 | = | Offaly | 74.20 | -2.36
21 | = | Derry | 73.41 | 0.00
22 | ▲ | Antrim | 71.20 | 1.99
23 | ▲ 2 | Leitrim | 69.62 | 2.05
24 | ▼ 2 | Limerick | 68.46 | -1.99
25 | ▼ | Tipperary | 68.15 | -0.11
26 | = | Carlow | 65.48 | -0.21
27 | ▲ 2 | Sligo | 64.45 | 1.93
28 | ▲ 2 | Wicklow | 63.27 | 1.04
29 | ▼ 2 | Wexford | 61.88 | -1.93
30 | ▼ 2 | Louth | 61.19 | -2.05
31 | = | Waterford | 60.75 | 0.21
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | -1.04

laoisman11

Output from the prediction model below...........a draw accumulator looks promising!

Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Tyrone | Donegal by 1.4
Armagh vs Roscommon | Draw game
Waterford vs London | Waterford by 7.2
Carlow vs Sligo | Draw game
Galway vs Mayo | Draw game
Dublin vs Meath | Dublin by 10.4
Monaghan vs Kerry | Kerry by 6.1
Clare vs Fermanagh | Clare by 2.6
Westmeath vs Laois | Draw game
Kildare vs Cavan | Draw game
Down vs Leitrim | Down by 6.9
Cork vs Louth | Cork by 10.8
Derry vs Longford | Draw game
Tipperary vs Offaly | Offaly by 2.1
Wicklow vs Antrim | Antrim by 3.5
Limerick vs Wexford | Limerick by 2.2

What.Now

Question - Does time lag bring teams ranking points down. For example if no teams are able to play in the next, say 10 years, would the ranking points still remain as in post No.966.

laoisman11

What.Now wrote: »

Question - Does time lag bring teams ranking points down. For example if no teams are able to play in the next, say 10 years, would the ranking points still remain as in post No.966.

No, no effect of time lag, either in the event that all teams do not play or that an individual team does not play. It is a rating point exchange system, if you do not play, you cannot exchange points.

laoisman11

Very excited that inter-county football is back up and running!

Some minor changes after last weekend's games, but for real changes, we will have to wait for championship, which is just around the corner :-)

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.46 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 107.00 | 0.33
3 | = | Donegal | 101.32 | 1.16
4 | ▲ 2 | Mayo | 100.31 | 2.93
5 | ▼ | Tyrone | 98.62 | -1.16
6 | ▲ | Roscommon | 96.46 | 1.41
7 | ▼ 2 | Galway | 96.00 | -2.93
8 | = | Monaghan | 91.66 | -0.33
9 | = | Armagh | 89.72 | -1.41
10 | = | Cavan | 88.02 | -1.59
11 | ▲ 2 | Kildare | 87.28 | 1.59
12 | ▼ | Meath | 86.92 | 0.00
13 | ▼ | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 85.89 | 0.68
15 | ▲ 2 | Westmeath | 82.67 | 2.12
16 | = | Down | 81.19 | 0.00
17 | ▼ 2 | Laois | 80.58 | -2.12
18 | = | Fermanagh | 79.30 | -0.68
19 | = | Longford | 76.61 | -2.68
20 | ▲ | Derry | 76.09 | 2.68
21 | ▼ | Offaly | 72.40 | -1.80
22 | ▲ 3 | Tipperary | 69.95 | 1.80
23 | = | Leitrim | 69.62 | 0.00
24 | ▼ 2 | Antrim | 68.21 | -2.99
25 | ▲ | Carlow | 66.58 | 1.10
26 | ▲ 2 | Wicklow | 66.26 | 2.99
27 | ▼ 3 | Limerick | 66.00 | -2.46
28 | ▲ | Wexford | 64.34 | 2.46
29 | ▼ 2 | Sligo | 63.35 | -1.10
30 | = | Louth | 61.19 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 60.75 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00

dr.kenneth noisewater

what happens for games given as walkovers?

conor05

Is there a hurling rankings table anywhere?

conor05

conor05 wrote: »

Is there a hurling rankings table anywhere?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057160431

laoisman11

dr.kenneth noisewater wrote: »

what happens for games given as walkovers?

No game played, no exchange of rating points.

laoisman11

The big winners from this final round of the league were Louth, who gained 4.5 rating points following a big win over an already promoted Down side. I'm sure neighbourly love was also in play in that result!

In terms of the overall league, the big movers were:

• Wicklow who jumped 6 ranking places to end at their highest level since 2014
• Monaghan rose 5 ranking places after a solid Division 1 campaign
• Cavan, Carlow and Longford all fell 4 ranking places.

Onwards and upwards! The championship rolls into town in a few days

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.53
2 | = | Kerry | 107.95 | 0.95
3 | ▲ 2 | Tyrone | 100.59 | 1.97
4 | ▼ | Donegal | 100.37 | -0.95
5 | ▼ | Mayo | 98.34 | -1.97
6 | = | Roscommon | 97.42 | 0.96
7 | = | Galway | 95.47 | -0.53
8 | ▲ | Armagh | 91.14 | 1.42
9 | ▼ | Monaghan | 90.89 | -0.77
10 | ▲ | Kildare | 88.02 | 0.74
11 | ▲ | Meath | 87.69 | 0.77
12 | ▼ 2 | Cavan | 87.06 | -0.96
13 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 84.47 | -1.42
15 | ▲ 2 | Laois | 83.09 | 2.51
16 | ▼ | Westmeath | 81.93 | -0.74
17 | ▲ 3 | Derry | 77.52 | 1.43
18 | = | Fermanagh | 76.79 | -2.51
19 | ▼ 3 | Down | 76.69 | -4.50
20 | ▼ | Longford | 76.61 | 0.00
21 | ▲ | Tipperary | 71.72 | 1.77
22 | ▼ | Offaly | 70.97 | -1.43
23 | ▲ | Antrim | 69.34 | 1.13
24 | ▲ 3 | Wicklow | 67.87 | 1.61
25 | ▼ 3 | Leitrim | 67.85 | -1.77
26 | ▲ | Limerick | 67.53 | 1.53
27 | ▼ 3 | Carlow | 66.58 | 0.00
28 | ▲ 3 | Louth | 65.69 | 4.50
29 | ▼ | Wexford | 62.73 | -1.61
30 | ▼ | Sligo | 61.82 | -1.53
31 | = | Waterford | 59.62 | -1.13
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games below.

It will be interesting to see if, and if so, by how far, predictions skew from results this year compared to previous years.

Game|Prediction
Waterford vs Limerick | Limerick by 1.9
Monaghan vs Cavan | Monaghan by 1.8
Leitrim vs Mayo | Mayo by 12.9
Louth vs Longford | Longford by 3.1
Offaly vs Carlow | Offaly by 5.4
Wexford vs Wicklow | Draw game
Tipperary vs Clare | Clare by 4.2
Donegal vs Tyrone | Donegal by 1.1
Derry vs Armagh | Armagh by 3.8

Charles Babbage

Donegal vs Tyrone Donegal by 1.1
Derry vs Armagh Armagh by 3.8

Not so far off on the last two.

laoisman11

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Not so far off on the last two.

5 of 9 within 2 points, that's outstanding!!!

Charles Babbage

laoisman11 wrote: »

5 of 9 within 2 points, that's outstanding!!!

I always thought 7 of 9 was outstanding, especially in the new Picard series.
But good work on the ranking.

laoisman11

Difficult to believe that after the first round of the championship, that the teams that were ranked 3rd and 9th are already out of the running! Strange times indeed.

Tipp and Cavan were the big winners from the first weekend of the championship, with 4.95 and 4.37 rating points gained from wins over Clare and Monaghan, respectively. Limerick also gained a respectable 3.03 rating points following a bonus-point away win over Waterford.


#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 107.95 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Donegal | 102.81 | 2.44
4 | ▲ | Mayo | 98.34 | 0.00
5 | ▼ 2 | Tyrone | 98.15 | -2.44
6 | = | Roscommon | 97.42 | 0.00
7 | = | Galway | 95.47 | 0.00
8 | = | Armagh | 92.02 | 0.88
9 | ▲ 3 | Cavan | 91.43 | 4.37
10 | = | Kildare | 88.02 | 0.00
11 | = | Meath | 87.69 | 0.00
12 | ▲ | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
13 | ▼ 4 | Monaghan | 86.52 | -4.37
14 | ▲ | Laois | 83.09 | 0.00
15 | ▲ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
16 | ▼ 2 | Clare | 79.52 | -4.95
17 | ▲ 3 | Longford | 77.43 | 0.82
18 | = | Fermanagh | 76.79 | 0.00
19 | = | Down | 76.69 | 0.00
20 | ▲ | Tipperary | 76.67 | 4.95
21 | ▼ 4 | Derry | 76.64 | -0.88
22 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 1.52
23 | ▲ 3| Limerick | 70.56 | 3.03
24 | = | Wicklow | 70.44 | 2.57
25 | ▼ 2 | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
26 | ▼ | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | -1.52
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | -0.82
29 | ▲ | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | ▼ | Wexford | 60.16 | -2.57
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | -3.03
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games......just as well Sligo decided not to show up, a 15 point beating was in the making.

Game|Prediction
Galway vs Sligo | Galway by 15
Dublin vs Westmeath | Dublin by 13.5
Limerick vs Tipperary | Tipperary by 1.4
Cavan vs Antrim | Cavan by 9.6
Roscommon vs Mayo | Draw game
Longford vs Laois | Laois by 1.6
Wicklow vs Meath | Meath by 9.1
Offaly vs Kildare | Kildare by 6.2
Cork vs Kerry | Kerry by 7.7
Fermanagh vs Down | Draw game

seligehgit

laoisman11 wrote: »

Prediction model output for this weekend's games......just as well Sligo decided not to show up, a 15 point beating was in the making.

Game|Prediction
Galway vs Sligo | Galway by 15
Dublin vs Westmeath | Dublin by 13.5
Limerick vs Tipperary | Tipperary by 1.4
Cavan vs Antrim | Cavan by 9.6
Roscommon vs Mayo | Draw game
Longford vs Laois | Laois by 1.6
Wicklow vs Meath | Meath by 9.1
Offaly vs Kildare | Kildare by 6.2
Cork vs Kerry | Kerry by 7.7
Fermanagh vs Down | Draw game

So who wins the penalty shoot out?:D

laoisman11

• The first major shock of the championship results in Cork jumping a huge 5 ranking places; they are now at their highest rank since July 2016
• Both Down and Mayo gained more than 5 rating points following bonus-point wins over Fermanagh and Roscommon (both games were predicted to be much much closer!)
• Despite losing heavily, Wicklow move up one spot to 23rd, their highest ranking since June 2014
• The number of teams left is getting surprisingly thin-looking!

Remaining teams in bold
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
2 | ▲ 2 | Mayo | 103.46 | 5.12
3 | = | Donegal | 102.81 | 0.00
4 | ▼ 2 | Kerry | 101.95 | -6.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Galway | 95.47 | 0.00
7 | ▲ 5 | Cork | 92.53 | 6.00
8 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 92.30 | -5.12
9 | ▼ | Armagh | 92.02 | 0.00
10 | ▼ | Cavan | 91.43 | 0.00
11 | ▼ | Kildare | 88.02 | 0.00
12 | ▼ | Meath | 87.92 | 0.23
13 | = | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
14 | = | Laois | 85.56 | 2.47
15 | ▲ 4 | Down | 82.12 | 5.43
16 | ▼ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
17 | ▼ | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
18 | ▲ 2 | Tipperary | 79.05 | 2.38
19 | ▲ 2 | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | ▼ 3 | Longford | 74.96 | -2.47
21 | ▲ | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | ▼ 4 | Fermanagh | 71.36 | -5.43
23 | ▲ | Wicklow | 70.21 | -0.23
24 | ▲ | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | ▼ 2 | Limerick | 68.18 | -2.38
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games.......

Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Armagh | Donegal by 3.8
Galway vs Mayo | Mayo by 1.3
Meath vs Kildare | Meath by 0.9
Down vs Cavan | Cavan by 4.4
Dublin vs Laois | Dublin by 13.2

CrabRevolution

laoisman11 wrote: »

Prediction model output for this weekend's games.......

Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Armagh | Donegal by 3.8
Galway vs Mayo | Mayo by 1.3
Meath vs Kildare | Meath by 0.9
Down vs Cavan | Cavan by 4.4
Dublin vs Laois | Dublin by 13.2

Don't think I've ever seen a <1 point margin predicted before, I thought that just got called as a draw.

I'm sure I'm missing something, but how are Meath predicted to win, when we're ranked beneath Kildare by a tiny amount, and it's a neutral venue?

laoisman11

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Don't think I've ever seen a <1 point margin predicted before, I thought that just got called as a draw.

I'm sure I'm missing something, but how are Meath predicted to win, when we're ranked beneath Kildare by a tiny amount, and it's a neutral venue?

Can't remember exactly how I have set the code but it is probably given as a draw when the predicted margin is less than 0.5. Will check it out when I run this weekend's results.

The predictions are made on past performances, so Meath must have repeatedly outperformed Kildare in previous meets, and the model takes this into account. I don't think I need to say it, but past performance is no guarantee of future results :cool:

CrabRevolution

laoisman11 wrote: »

Can't remember exactly how I have set the code but it is probably given as a draw when the predicted margin is less than 0.5. Will check it out when I run this weekend's results.

The predictions are made on past performances, so Meath must have repeatedly outperformed Kildare in previous meets, and the model takes this into account. I don't think I need to say it, but past performance is no guarantee of future results :cool:

Fair enough, I didn't know it took the specific head to head into account...

Cavan_King

laoisman11 wrote: »

Prediction model output for this weekend's games.......

Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Armagh | Donegal by 3.8
Galway vs Mayo | Mayo by 1.3
Meath vs Kildare | Meath by 0.9
Down vs Cavan | Cavan by 4.4
Dublin vs Laois | Dublin by 13.2

Yet Down are favourites with the bookies 4/6 while Cavan are 6/4.

Blackjack

Cavan_King wrote: »

Yet Down are favourites with the bookies 4/6 while Cavan are 6/4.

Bookies odds will change depending on how much money had gone on, and would continue to change as more money goes on.

enricoh

laoisman11 wrote: »

Prediction model output for this weekend's games.......

Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Armagh | Donegal by 3.8
Galway vs Mayo | Mayo by 1.3
Meath vs Kildare | Meath by 0.9
Down vs Cavan | Cavan by 4.4
Dublin vs Laois | Dublin by 13.2

Good going , I should have stuck a tenner on!

laoisman11

Meath's bonus-point win over Kildare give them the most rating points exchanged after this weekend's games, while Cavan make it into the top 8, something which used to be super, but now, nobody is so sure.......

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
2 | = | Mayo | 105.46 | 2.00
3 | = | Donegal | 104.07 | 1.26
4 | = | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | = | Galway | 93.47 | -2.00
7 | ▲ 3 | Cavan | 92.57 | 1.14
8 | ▼ | Cork | 92.53 | 0.00
9 | ▲ 3 | Meath | 92.45 | 4.53
10 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
11 | ▼ 2 | Armagh | 90.76 | -1.26
12 | ▲ | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
13 | ▲ | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
14 | ▼ 3 | Kildare | 83.49 | -4.53
15 | ▲ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
16 | ▼ | Down | 80.98 | -1.14
17 | = | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
18 | = | Tipperary | 79.05 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00