Football ranking table

Godge

Jayop wrote: »

My call for an upset us fermanagh beating Donegal.

If the reports of Murphy carrying an injury are true, it is definitely a possibility.

Jayop

Godge wrote: »

If the reports of Murphy carrying an injury are true, it is definitely a possibility.

I'd still put my own money on Donegal if I had to bet but yeah fermanagh are on a high and Donegal are on a low ebb. Just depends if the two waves are extreme enough to overlap.

Boom__Boom

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I'd agree there, Tipp seem to be like Ulster in the Rugby, they have been "up and coming" for 5 or 6 years at this stage. At what stage will they finally reach their best? While they've certainly solidified themselves as a good mid ranking team, overtaking the likes of Longford or Louth, I think people are a bit too optimistic for them.

Tipp have lost something like 11 players from last year's football panel, between going to Oz, going hurling and long-term injuries. Colin O'Riordan is in Oz and he was an absolutely massive player for them even at the age of 19.

During the league there was one game, where the match panel named didn't feature even one out of the 26 players who won the minor football title in 2011.

For a county which is still drawing from a relatively small pool of seriousish club footballers and where there is a clear hurling over football pecking order they are doing fairly well imo. Given their lack of squad depth, with 11 players missing from last year and a mediocre league campaign I really don't see them troubling Cork even though Cork did get relegated.

Boom__Boom

Jayop wrote: »

My call for an upset us fermanagh beating Donegal.

It does look like the "likeliest" upset in my opinion.

I think this could be the year the age of the panel and the small size of the panel McGuinness worked with could come back to haunt them.

CrabRevolution

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I'd agree there, Tipp seem to be like Ulster in the Rugby, they have been "up and coming" for 5 or 6 years at this stage. At what stage will they finally reach their best? While they've certainly solidified themselves as a good mid ranking team, overtaking the likes of Longford or Louth, I think people are a bit too optimistic for them.

Well. Shows what I know....

laoisman11

And finally we get an upset, and what an upset!

• Tipperary's win over Cork gains them 4.94 rating points and an increase of 5 ranking places
• Cork drop to 11th, their worst ranking since 2005
• Westmeath's slender win over their near neighbours results in them climbing 3 places while Offaly drop 5
• Meath move into the top 12 after a solid win over Louth
• Donegal picked up 1.02 rating points from Fermanagh and close in on a top 4 place
• No points were exchanged in the Kerry Clare game

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.98 | 0.00
3 | = | Mayo | 97.29 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 97.29 | 0.00
5 | = | Donegal | 94.06 | 1.02
6 | = | Monaghan | 92.10 | 0.00
7 | ▲ | Roscommon | 90.63 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Kildare | 88.92 | 0.00
9 | ▲ | Cavan | 88.45 | 0.00
10 | ▲ | Galway | 85.88 | 0.00
11 | ▼ 4 | Cork | 85.76 | -4.94
12 | ▲ | Meath | 84.54 | 1.44
13 | ▼ | Fermanagh | 83.41 | -1.02
14 | = | Clare | 82.92 | 0.00
14 | ▲ 5| Tipperary | 82.92 | 4.94
16 | = | Derry | 81.07 | 0.00
17 | ▲ 3 | Westmeath | 80.90 | 3.06
18 | ▼ | Armagh | 80.37 | 0.00
19 | ▼ | Sligo | 78.21 | 0.00
20 | ▼ 5 | Offaly | 78.10 | -3.06
21 | = | Down | 76.87 | 0.00
22 | ▲ | Longford | 75.24 | 0.00
23 | ▼ | Louth | 73.86 | -1.44
24 | = | Laois | 73.57 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 73.14 | 0.00
26 | = | Antrim | 72.56 | 0.00
27 | = | Limerick | 65.88 | 0.00
28 | = | Wicklow | 61.93 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 61.43 | 0.00
30 | = | Carlow | 61.07 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 58.67 | 0.00
32 | = | London | 57.61 | 0.00
33 | = | New York | 57.17 | 0.00

laoisman11

A busy weekend, and one which will see 4 counties "retire" from this year's championship. It has to be said that the qualifiers have dealt a good hand to a group of counties (Carlow, Wicklow, Leitrim, Waterford) allowing them to play against teams at a similar level.

Mayo (97.29, at home) vs Galway (85.88)
Galway's defeat in their final game of Division 2 deprived them of promotion, a fact which may have been forgotten in the lead up to this game. They are not that far off the pace, but still have a huge number of debutants (5) for this important game. Mayo's objective has to be a sunny Sunday in September, and they need to use this game to perfect their game plan for bigger days ahead. Prediction: Mayo by 4

Laois (73.57, at home) vs Armagh (80.37)
The best possible draw for Laois, at home, against a team that they know are extremely tough to beat, and whom have a point to prove after their league encounter. Armagh can't have been happy with their Ulster championship exit at the hands of Cavan, while Laois might have been content with an 11 point defeat to Dublin. This should be a tough, hard-hitting game and one or two red cards might be the order of the day. The prediction model is going for a narrow Armagh win: Armagh by 2

Derry (81.07, at home) vs Louth (73.86)
After succumbing easily to Tyrone, Derry have a chance to reignite their season against a Louth side that already have 2 good games under their belts. Home advantage has to count for something here though, and the trip north will not suit the Louth men. Prediction: Derry by 4

Carlow (61.07, at home) vs Wicklow (61.93)
Two mid-Division 4 sides play off for a chance to progress, and both will fancy their chances here. Carlow won the league tie in Aughrim, which normally means that Wicklow will win the return tie away from home! The prediction model agrees: Wicklow by 1

Leitrim (61.43, at home) vs Waterford (58.67)
Both teams had 2 wins out of 5 in Division 4, with Waterford sneaking the game between the sides. Neither will expect to go much further, but for the moment, short-term glory and bragging rights for next year's league will suffice. Prediction: Leitrim by 3

Tyrone (97.29) vs Cavan (88.45)
Cavan are on a great streak at the moment and it will be interesting to see what they have learnt from their first round and league final defeats (by 2 and 5 points, respectively) to their opposition on Sunday. Tyrone appear to have rediscovered their mojo and easily overcame a poor Derry challenge. The O'Neill county are looking for their first Ulster final appearance since 2010; Cavan's wait is longer: 2001. The prediction model says: Tyrone by 2

kerryjack

First time I put a few bob on your system tought I might be able to beat the bookies no luck, don't give up your day job just yet.

Hammer Archer

kerryjack wrote: »

First time I put a few bob on your system tought I might be able to beat the bookies no luck, don't give up your day job just yet.

Mod: laoisman11 has specifically warned against using this for betting purposes. More fool you if you didn't heed his warning! Any more of these sort of posts will be carded.
laoisman11 (and Hanalei in the equivalent hurling thread) has put massive amounts of effort into this thread and 99.9% are massively grateful for it.

laoisman11

And now the shocks can't stop coming…..

• Galway pulled off an historic win over Mayo, and gained 5.88 rating points in the process. They move to 6th in the rankings, their highest position since April 2010
• Mayo drop 4 places to 7th, their lowest placement since March 2012
• Laois move up 4 places following an unexpected win over Armagh; Armagh drop to 22nd, their lowest ranking since October 1975
• Carlow were the next big winners, gaining 2.57 rating points and hopping 2 places, following their win over Wicklow
• Waterford's defeat at the hands of Leitrim consigns them to the last and final place in the rankings (although one could argue about the validity of New York's ranking given how few games they play)
• Finally, Cavan gained 1.77 rating points following their draw with Tyrone

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.98 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Tyrone | 95.52 | -1.77
4 | ▲ | Donegal | 94.06 | 0.00
5 | ▲ | Monaghan | 92.10 | 0.00
6 | ▲4 | Galway | 91.76 | 5.88
7 | ▼ 4 | Mayo | 91.41 | -5.88
8 | ▼ | Roscommon | 90.63 | 0.00
9 | = | Cavan | 90.22 | 1.77
10 | ▼2 | Kildare | 88.92 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 85.76 | 0.00
12 | = | Meath | 84.54 | 0.00
13 | = | Fermanagh | 83.41 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 82.92 | 0.00
14 | ▲ | Tipperary | 82.92 | 0.00
16 | = | Derry | 82.03 | 0.96
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.90 | 0.00
18 | ▲ | Sligo | 78.21 | 0.00
19 | ▲ | Offaly | 78.10 | 0.00
20 | ▲4 | Laois | 77.33 | 3.76
21 | = | Down | 76.87 | 0.00
22 | ▼4 | Armagh | 76.61 | -3.76
23 | ▼ | Longford | 75.24 | 0.00
24 | ▲ | Wexford | 73.14 | 0.00
25 | ▼2 | Louth | 72.90 | -0.96
26 | = | Antrim | 72.56 | 0.00
27 | = | Limerick | 65.88 | 0.00
28 | ▲2 | Carlow | 63.64 | 2.57
29 | = | Leitrim | 63.28 | 1.85
30 | ▼2 | Wicklow | 59.36 | -2.57
31 | ▲ | London | 57.61 | 0.00
32 | ▲ | New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33 | ▼2 | Waterford | 56.82 | -1.85

J Cheever Loophole

laoisman11 wrote: »

Laois move up 4 places following an unexpected win over Armagh; Armagh drop to 22nd, their lowest ranking since October 1975

Couple of points - firstly, congratulations on a thoroughly deserved victory yesterday - hopefully Laois can build on that and develop a bit of momentum. Secondly, in light of recent mindless criticism (above), can I compliment you on the excellent work around these rankings. I find them fascinating. Lastly, what I have bolded in the quote above - do you mind me asking how you know this? My question is not to doubt your conclusion by the way, as I was making the very point to a couple of friends that I feel it is a long time since we have been this low in a 1 - 32 of all teams - I'm just genuinely curious, as I assume your work does not go back that far?

laoisman11

J Cheever Loophole wrote: »

Couple of points - firstly, congratulations on a thoroughly deserved victory yesterday - hopefully Laois can build on that and develop a bit of momentum. Secondly, in light of recent mindless criticism (above), can I compliment you on the excellent work around these rankings. I find them fascinating. Lastly, what I have bolded in the quote above - do you mind me asking how you know this? My question is not to doubt your conclusion by the way, as I was making the very point to a couple of friends that I feel it is a long time since we have been this low in a 1 - 32 of all teams - I'm just genuinely curious, as I assume your work does not go back that far?

Thanks for the compliments, they are well received.

I have all GAA results dating back from the early days, but only used the results from the championship of 1925 on to develop the rankings, primarily because the league started in '26 and resulted in an increased number of games.

I had described the entire system on a wiki page, but the users over there decided it did not meet their T&Cs so it was pulled. I contacted hoganstand and even the GAA to see if they were interested in hosting the whole shebang, but little interest.

What I can do is try to attach a PDF print of what the wiki page looked like as of September 2015, it may help people understand the system a little more. If it uploads ok, perhaps the mods might be able to move it to the first post in the thread?

Looks like Laois and Armagh are going to get another chance to stay in the championship - may the best team win!

Jayop

So do your rank changes from the first game now become reversed?

laoisman11

Jayop wrote: »

So do your rank changes from the first game now become reversed?

I presume you are talking about the Laois - Armagh game?

If so, it is a good question, and one I thought about over the last 48 hours. Until the GAA gave me my answer this morning. The next game between the sides is considered a replay, so for me the original game stands.

However, I would like to come up with a set of rules to determine what should happen if it were a refixture, or if a team had to forfeit a game.

laoisman11

The busiest weekend of the championship so far.......

Down (76.87, at home) vs Longford (75.24)
The largest defeat of the championship to date (19 points) and the worst aggregate score from the league (-60 points over 7 games) don't speak volumes for Down's defensive system. They are coming up against a Longford side which hasn't exactly set the world on fire this year; a mediocre league was followed by a disappointing 8 point loss to Offaly. The signs are not positive for a classic, but given that little is expected of either, the sides might well play some football. The prediction model says: Down by 4

Antrim (72.56, at home) vs Limerick (65.88)
6 and 5. The scores from play from these sides in their first round provincial defeats to Fermanagh and Clare, respectively. Nevertheless, Antrim are coming off a more positive league campaign than Limerick and the long journey north is sure to count against the Treaty. Prediction: Antrim by 5

Offaly (78.10, at home) vs London (57.61)
A good draw for Offaly here, they will be fancied to advance with ease. Prediction: Offaly by 12

Wexford (73.14, at home) vs Fermanagh (83.41)
Ciaran Lyng is a late withdrawal for Wexford who weren't so far off creating the first shock of the championship against Kildare. They are facing a decent Fermanagh team who seem to enjoy traveling the country in order to advance through the qualifiers. Croke Park is their preferred destination, and the prediction model believes that they will advance in that direction. Fermanagh by 2

Monaghan (92.10) vs Donegal (94.06)
These teams have contested the last 3 Ulster finals, but this year, only one of them can advance. Monaghan won the vital league tie by the minimum of margins, retaining their Division 1 status in the process. Both are coming off good wins in their respective quarter-finals and little is expected between the teams. I'll leave it to the model to call: Donegal by 1

Kildare (88.92) vs Westmeath (80.90)
Many have questioned Kildare's place in the ranking table and here is a minor opportunity for them to prove themselves. They barely scraped by Wexford, lost their league final to Clare but at least they made it to a league final. Westmeath have dropped from Division 1 to Division 4 in 3 seasons and in the championship, edged past a gallant Offaly side by 1 point. Based on their higher rating points, the prediction model is unambiguous: Kildare by 4

Dublin (111.55, at home) vs Meath (84.54)
The champions (league, provincial, All-Ireland) vs their historical rivals. The gap seems to be spreading between these teams: Dublin have beaten Meath by 16, 7 and 3 points in their last 3 meetings. Meath did not seem to be overly troubled by Louth, while Dublin had Laois dismissed in 10 minutes before relaxing. Meath may already have one eye on the qualifiers – or perhaps they could provide us with the shock of this weekend??? Prediction: Dublin by 9

Hammer Archer

laoisman11 wrote: »

Dublin (111.55, at home) vs Meath (84.54)
Meath may already have one eye on the qualifiers – or perhaps they could provide us with the shock of this weekend???

Hesh's Umpire

laoisman11 wrote: »

Dublin (111.55, at home]) vs Meath (84.54)

laoisman11

Some shocks this weekend, with great wins for Limerick, Westmeath and Longford over higher-ranked opponents

• In terms of rating points gains, Limerick were the top movers after this weekend's action after a hard-fought win over Antrim, gaining 4.94 points
• In terms of ranking places, Westmeath hopped a massive 6 places to 11th following their one-point win over Kildare
• Longford weren't far behind, moving up 5 ranking places with an extra-time win over Down
• Down haven't won a league or championship game since April 2015, and are now at their lowest ranking since June 2007
• Fermanagh move back into the top 12 and have a serious game against Mayo to look forward to
• Monaghan edge closer to Donegal following the Breffni Park stalemate
• No points were exchanged in the Dublin-Meath non-shock or in the Offaly-London game

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.98 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 95.52 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 93.67 | -0.39
5 | = | Monaghan | 92.49 | 0.39
6 | = | Galway | 91.76 | 0.00
7 | = | Mayo | 91.41 | 0.00
8 | = | Roscommon | 90.63 | 0.00
9 | = | Cavan | 90.22 | 0.00
10 | ▲ | Cork | 85.76 | 0.00
11 | ▲ 6 | Westmeath | 85.50 | 4.60
12 | ▲ | Fermanagh | 84.96 | 1.55
13 | ▼ | Meath | 84.54 | 0.00
14 | ▼ 3 | Kildare | 84.32 | -4.60
15 | ▼ | Clare | 82.92 | 0.00
15 | = | Tipperary | 82.92 | 0.00
17 | ▼ | Derry | 82.03 | 0.00
18 | ▲ 5 | Longford | 79.17 | 3.93
19 | ▼ | Sligo | 78.21 | 0.00
20 | ▼ | Offaly | 78.10 | 0.00
21 | ▼ | Laois | 77.33 | 0.00
22 | = | Armagh | 76.61 | 0.00
23 | ▼ 2 | Down | 72.94 | -3.93
24 | ▲ | Louth | 72.90 | 0.00
25 | ▼ | Wexford | 71.59 | -1.55
26 | ▲ | Limerick | 70.82 | 4.94
27 | ▼ | Antrim | 67.62 | -4.94
28 | = | Carlow | 63.64 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 63.28 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.36 | 0.00
31 | = | London | 57.61 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33 | = | Waterford | 56.82 | 0.00

BonnieSituation

If you discount Down's 2010 they would be so much lower.

Jayop

BonnieSituation wrote: »

If you discount Down's 2010 they would be so much lower.

I think they'll come back up. Probably never to their levels of yesteryear but I can see them getting to competing for Ulster again in the next 5-10 years.

Boom__Boom

Jayop wrote: »

I think they'll come back up. Probably never to their levels of yesteryear but I can see them getting to competing for Ulster again in the next 5-10 years.

Given their poor recent record at underage in terms of minor and U21 where are the players going to come from?

Jayop

Boom__Boom wrote: »

Given their poor recent record at underage in terms of minor and U21 where are the players going to come from?

They have a bit of the best of both worlds in terms of the philosophy of the county. Play nice football but can be hard as nails. I don't know where the players will come from but I would have faith that they'll not be too long in the doldrums.

laoisman11

Monaghan (92.49) vs Donegal (93.67)
It was intense in Breffni Park last weekend and I expect the replay to be no different. Both sides will have been disappointed with their scoring stats, especially Donegal for whom Murphy was off-form from dead balls. The prediction model remains consistent from the last day: Donegal by 1

Laois (77.33, at home) vs Armagh (76.61)
A «replay» that neither Laois nor Armagh particularly wanted, I'd imagine, but one that could set up either team for an extended run in the Qualifiers (luck of the draw permitting, of course!). Both sides hit a mountain of wides in the first game, so there is a lot of room for improvements. Laois have O'Loughlin back whereas Armagh seem to be down a few players. This game will be decided by who wants it most. Despite Laois having home advantage and superior rating points, the model is predicting that it will be a northern win: Armagh by 1

Sligo (78.21, at home) vs Leitrim (63.28)
A chance for Sligo to go one step further in the qualifiers, but they will need to shake off complacency as their neighbours are sure to be up for this one. Leitrim recorderd their second only qualifier win in seeing off Waterford, but their lack of scoring abilities will likely be their downfall here. Sligo by 6

Kerry (102.98, at home) vs Tipperary (82.92)
Tipp's shock win over Cork will have been well noted in the Kingdom, and it is highly unlikely that Kerry will underestimate them. A path straight to the All-Ireland quarter-finals awaits the winner, and it is a path which Kerry will want. And will take with ease according to the prediction model: Kerry by 11

Tyrone (95.52) vs Cavan (90.22)
Another Ulster semi-final replay, and another chance for these 2 to build upon good foundations. Tyrone's defence will have been subjected to a severe tightening and it is hard to envisage them leaking 3 majors in one game for the remainder of their participation in this year's championship. Cavan will need to up their scoring rate considerably, but they do have it in them, hitting Armagh for 2-16 and an average of 1-15 during the league. Prediction: Tyrone by 2

Godge

If Cavan, Monaghan and Tipperary win, would that open the possibility that Dublin could win the All-Ireland and fail to pick up any ranking points at all?

They are currently 111.55, which is 114.55 when playing Croke Park and does that mean that they can only collect ranking points from teams over 99.55 (currently only Kerry)? A loss to Tipperary would drop Kerry below 99 and Tyrone and Donegal would drop further as well. Am I correct?

laoisman11

Godge wrote: »

If Cavan, Monaghan and Tipperary win, would that open the possibility that Dublin could win the All-Ireland and fail to pick up any ranking points at all?

They are currently 111.55, which is 114.55 when playing Croke Park and does that mean that they can only collect ranking points from teams over 99.55 (currently only Kerry)? A loss to Tipperary would drop Kerry below 99 and Tyrone and Donegal would drop further as well. Am I correct?

Your maths are correct, but I think it's highly unlikely that Dublin could win the All-Ireland without gaining some rating points. If teams from outside the current top 6, for argument's sake, were to get to a semi-final or final, the fact of getting that far would have gained them serious rating points and put them above the 99.55 cut-off.

Jayop

That's why you're on the big bucks Laoisman!

laoisman11

Twenty-four teams left in the championship….…….

• Tyrone gained the most rating points (2.91) following their bonus-point win over Cavan and cement their 3rd ranked place
• Donegal complete the top 4 (who appear to have distanced themselves from the chasing group for the moment), helped by a good win over Monaghan
• Laois were the big winners in terms of ranking places, hopping 3 places to 18th after repeating the win of 2 weeks ago
• No points were exchanged in the Kerry-Tipp or Sligo-Leitrim game

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.98 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 98.43 | 2.91
4 | = | Donegal | 96.43 | 2.76
5 | ▲ | Galway | 91.76 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Mayo | 91.41 | 0.00
7 | ▲ | Roscommon | 90.63 | 0.00
8 | ▼ 3 | Monaghan | 89.73 | -2.76
9 | = | Cavan | 87.31 | -2.91
10 | = | Cork | 85.76 | 0.00
11 | = | Westmeath | 85.50 | 0.00
12 | = | Fermanagh | 84.96 | 0.00
13 | = | Meath | 84.54 | 0.00
14 | = | Kildare | 84.32 | 0.00
15 | = | Clare | 82.92 | 0.00
15 | = | Tipperary | 82.92 | 0.00
17 | = | Derry | 82.03 | 0.00
18 | ▲ 3 | Laois | 79.59 | 2.26
19 | ▼ | Longford | 79.17 | 0.00
20 | ▼ | Sligo | 78.21 | 0.00
21 | ▼ | Offaly | 78.10 | 0.00
22 | = | Armagh | 74.35 | -2.26
23 | = | Down | 72.94 | 0.00
24 | = | Louth | 72.90 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 71.59 | 0.00
26 | = | Limerick | 70.82 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 67.62 | 0.00
28 | = | Carlow | 63.64 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 63.28 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.36 | 0.00
31 | = | London | 57.61 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33 | = | Waterford | 56.82 | 0.00

Jayop

Still some distance from the top 2. Dublin can't get anything from the Leinster final as far as I can see and Kerry have already played their final so who ever wins Ulster should gain on the top 2 but unless it's Tyrone there will still be a big gap.

laoisman11

A nice smackering of games this weekend, and rating points will be exchanged in 6 of them, so expect lots of changes for Monday!

Derry (82.03, at home) vs Meath (84.54)
Hard to judge either of these teams. Both made fairly tame exits from their provincial championships and both escaped relegation to Division 3 on scoring difference. Derry have home advantage, which doesn't seem to have much bearing on them in general. The prediction model can't call it either. Draw

Cavan (87.31, at home) vs Carlow (63.64)
In spite of running up a decent score against Tyrone last weekend, Cavan were well beaten. Their scoring abilities will help them get over last weekend's hangover, but I'd expect Carlow to raise a green flag along the way. Cavan by 12

Mayo (91.41, at home) vs Fermanagh (84.96)
Mayo's elimination from the Connacht championship sent shock waves around the country (or at least the western province). They have a chance here to get the show back on the road, but it won't be easy going. Fermanagh have built up a good reputation in the last 18 months, and their scoring threat is well known. Mayo's defence, in conjunction with home advantage, should see them though. Mayo by 6

Monaghan (89.73, at home) vs Longford (79.17)
Monaghan's third game in three weeks, but they will be delighted to get back to winning ways here. Longford, apart from that extra-time scorefest with Down, have been pretty poor this year. In fact, considering that Monaghan beat Down by 19 points, and that Longford took extra time to get over the same opposition says enough. Monaghan by 6

Kildare (84.32, at home) vs Offaly (78.10)
Tight games are what Kildare seem to thrive on, coming off a 1 point loss to Westmeath and a 1 point win over Wexford in the Leinster championship. Offaly also lost to Westmeath by a single point, so a big margin of victory is unlikely here. Kildare won the league tie by 4, and surprisingly, the prediction model is going for the same result here. Kildare by 4

Cork (85.76) vs Limerick (70.82)
Cork have a point to prove here and I think Limerick could feel the brunt of it come Saturday afternoon. Limerick did have a great win up in Antrim, but that might have been the highlight of their summer. Cork not to make the same mistake again: Cork by 9

Galway (91.76, at home) vs Roscommon (90.63)
Not many were predicting this pairing in the Connacht final, but that won't bother Galway or Roscommon. Galway's win over Mayo will certainly have alerted Roscommon to the challenge that lies ahead, and Galway will know what is facing them here. I don't know why, but I'm expecting a high scoring game here. The prediction model seems to be swayed by home advantage: Galway by 1

Clare (82.92, at home) vs Laois (79.59)
Laois finally shook off Armagh's challenge but won't be happy with their scoring return in either game. They don't seem to have really clicked as a unit and can go into hibernation for long periods throughout a game. Clare never seriously threatened Kerry (much like Laois never threatened Dublin) but are coming off a good league with a final victory over Kildare still fresh in the memory. They are tipped to continue their good form: Clare by 1

laoisman11

• Unsurprisingly, Longford are the main movers after their shock win over Monaghan, they jump 6 places to 13th and gain 5.71 rating points
• Monaghan drop 7 places to 15th
• Derry were the next big winners, moving up 5 places following a hard-fought win over Meath
• Clare continue their good form, and move up to 14th after coming back from the dead against Laois
• Kildare picked up just over 1 rating point in their high-scoring win over Offaly
• Mayo also gained just over 1 rating point in seeing off Fermanagh in controversial circumstances
• Galway edge closer to Roscommon following their draw in the Connacht final
• And, last but not least, Cork increased their worth by 0.02 rating points after seeing off Limerick

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 111.55 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.98 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 98.43 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 96.43 | 0.00
5 | ▲ | Mayo | 92.52 | 1.11
6 | ▲ | Roscommon | 91.46 | 0.83
7 | ▼ 2| Galway | 90.93 | -0.83
8 | ▲ | Cavan | 87.31 | 0.00
9 | ▲ | Cork | 85.78 | 0.02
10 | ▲ | Westmeath | 85.50 | 0.00
11 | ▲ 3 | Kildare | 85.48 | 1.16
12 | ▲ 5 | Derry | 84.93 | 2.90
13 | ▲ 6 | Longford | 84.88 | 5.71
14 | ▲ | Clare | 84.65 | 1.73
15 | ▼ 7 | Monaghan | 84.02 | -5.71
16 | ▼ 4 | Fermanagh | 83.85 | -1.11
17 | ▼ | Tipperary | 82.92 | 0.00
18 | ▼ 5 | Meath | 81.64 | -2.90
19 | ▲ | Sligo | 78.21 | 0.00
20 | ▼ 2 | Laois | 77.86 | -1.73
21 | = | Offaly | 76.94 | -1.16
22 | = | Armagh | 74.35 | 0.00
23 | = | Down | 72.94 | 0.00
24 | = | Louth | 72.90 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 71.59 | 0.00
26 | = | Limerick | 70.80 | -0.02
27 | = | Antrim | 67.62 | 0.00
28 | = | Carlow | 63.64 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 63.28 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 59.36 | 0.00
31 | = | London | 57.61 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33 | = | Waterford | 56.82 | 0.00