Will Ukraine be another Syria?

ceadaoin.

losthorizon wrote: »

Cant see it happening!

The reason there is some trouble in the Crimea is that it was part of Russia up until 60 years ago until it was just given to the Ukraine.

The fact is though that those in Western Ukraine tend to be anti Russian and those in Eastern Russia tend to have less anti Russian feelings but I doubt that Russia will intervene. Ukraine is a very big nation.

The sooner this is sorted out the better though. I would say most people are more worried about earning money to feed their families though.

I'd say any Tatars living in Crimea are fairly worried about more than money

sopretty

2 questions: What is Russia going to do - deploy Russian troops to take control of Ukraine?
Also, has the EU made any statement(s) about the situation?

The Backwards Man

This thread has reminded me why I never watch Fox or Sky News.

MRnotlob606

The Ukraine values the Crimea strategically as the russias have one of there major naval bases there. they couldnt care who lives in all fairness

thisNthat

So the UK's response to Russia's military intervention in Ukraine is to withdraw from preparatory talks due to be held in the coming days for the G8 summit in Sochi in June.
That should teach the Russian's, Putin must be shaking :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Diabhal Beag

Heard Russia are trying to squash the beef by having a festival in Kiev tomorrow. It'll be on in Indiependence Square.

Manach

From what I remember of the old days of the Cold War, the Russians will act in a interventist fashion to deemed security issues in bordering countries: ie the same as the US with their Monroe doctrine.

nacho libre

The Russians are doing what the Israelis do; creating facts on the ground, so Obama can issue all the condemnatory statements he likes, but there is nothing he can do now to change whats about to happen. Crimea will become part of Russia. The Republicans are going to hammer Obama over this as being once again being weak and impotent...

hsilgnede

Aidric wrote: »

Russia will cut off one of it's biggest debtors. You really believe that?

For the chance to flex their muscle and secure the Crimea? Definitly. Ukraine needs the gas more than Russia needs the money.

Pumpkinseeds

I don't see much coming of it tbh. There'll be lots of posturing on all sides, Obama, Merkel, Cameron et al will issue grave warnings, NATO will take it's usual impotent stance. There is no appetite for a war with Russia, it doesn't directly affect America or Britain so it would be very difficult to sell a war to the public who are already being squeezed financially.

force eleven

There is no way Putin is looking for a confrontation with NATO. He has taken a calculated gamble to move now to protect, what he sees as, Russia's interests.

Crimea really should never have been part of Ukraine, you can blame Khrushchev for that.

I speculate that Putin, seeing things in Kiev swing away from Russia, towards a Pro-EU/NATO stance, could not wait for 'discussions and 'negotiations' in the vacuum now created by Yanukovych leaving office. He may even look at other parts of Eastern Ukraine to 'protect' but that really would up the ante.

Obama and Kerry have no sway whatsoever, sanctions are not going to work, and Russia does have some grip on Europe in terms of gas supplies. but not as strong a grip as some would think.

Ultimately I don't think this will result in conflict, in terms of Crimea, but if he decides to move into Eastern Ukraine, where he has a good deal of support, there will be fighting.

MRnotlob606

crimea will be giving autonomy and ukraine will do nothing

fergiesfolly

There will be a referendum in Crimea at the end of this month.
The ethnic Russian majority will vote for full independence from Ukraine( and may thereafter vote to join Russia) and Putin will have gotten his way.
The US, EU and other western powers will posture and threaten action until after the vote, but won't actually do anything.
They can't very well argue against the democratic will of the people and the worlds media will move onto the next crisis( which will also see a lot of posturing,but no action)

Fiery mutant

Actually the vote to have a referendum only came about because only pro Russian parliament members were allowed into the parliament building at the time. All other members were kicked out, so hardly democratic process taking place there. Even if the vote was fair, you can be sure Putin will comeup with another BS excuse to do what he wants. Russia will not give it up plain and simple.

The vast difference here is in actions. Russia mobilised a plan and acted on it in 48 hours, the same as with Georgia in 2008. The EU and US couldn't agree on the colour of sh1te in 48 hours. The West will once again be left with egg on their faces, while Russia will once again do as it pleases.

Putin is old school, as much as I hate the old ****, he is efficient. Obama and all the other western leaders are useless. What Europe misses now is leaders like Churchill, ballsy and not afraid to man the **** up.

The days of being bullied by the Ruskies are back.

spank_inferno

Maybe, just maybe Europe will start to look at energy policy properly.

The Republicans in the US frequently bang on that energy independence is a national security issue & so they act.

Here, a few NIMBYS can halt the only decent bit of natural gas we have coming ashore while others ensure wind energy is stunted.

If the west could spend some time developing energy resources so we wouldn't have to be so dependent on despots, it would be easier to grow a pair on the geopolitical field.

rockonollie

More sabre-rattling today......"not"-Russian soldiers at the entrance to a ukrainian army base fired warning shots as unarmed Ukranian soldiers approached them this morning.
Now there's reports that the Russian navy have blocked the passage in and out of the Black Sea and Ukranian ships stationed around the mediterranean are now speeding in that direction.

thisNthat

Is Estonia next? or eastern Ukraine? HERE

sopretty

thisNthat wrote: »

Is Estonia next? or eastern Ukraine? HERE

Sh*te. I'd believe Reuters as being a credible source. F**K

Iwasfrozen

sopretty wrote: »

Sh*te. I'd believe Reuters as being a credible source. F**K

This should have been nipped in the bud weeks ago when Russia entered Crimea. If Russia can get away with annoying land from one country it will do the same thing again. NATO needs to come down hard if Russia tries anything with Estonia.

thisNthat

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

This should have been nipped in the bud weeks ago when Russia entered Crimea. If Russia can get away with annoying land from one country it will do the same thing again. NATO needs to come down hard if Russia tries anything with Estonia.

Agreed, but, what are they gonna do? Seriously? War?

Who against who?

Sanctions ha ha that's a joke,

As I said in my OP, This is just getting started (Unfortunately )

sopretty

thisNthat wrote: »

Agreed, but, what are they gonna do? Seriously? War?

Who against who?

Sanctions ha ha that's a joke,

As I said in my OP, This is just getting started (Unfortunately )

I have also always felt that Putin was just testing the waters with Crimea.