Will Ukraine be another Syria?

thisNthat · 01-03-2014 1:51pm #1

Watching the news the last few weeks things seem to be really heating up in Ukraine with Russia putting troops in Crimea,
I'm interested to know if people think this will escalate to another Syria?

Russia won't take this lying down, they're being made to look like the bad guy in all this (maybe they are?)
I see this only getting started and going on for years.
What do you think?

spank_inferno · 01-03-2014 1:55pm

Probably not.

Syria is ferocious because the sides are evenly matched.

However the Ukraine army without a functioning government behind it is in no position to resist a determined Russian incursion.

There will be no shots fired in the short term (IMO).

losthorizon · 01-03-2014 2:00pm

Cant see it happening!

The reason there is some trouble in the Crimea is that it was part of Russia up until 60 years ago until it was just given to the Ukraine.

The fact is though that those in Western Ukraine tend to be anti Russian and those in Eastern Russia tend to have less anti Russian feelings but I doubt that Russia will intervene. Ukraine is a very big nation.

The sooner this is sorted out the better though. I would say most people are more worried about earning money to feed their families though.

Sir Arthur Daley · 01-03-2014 2:01pm

thisNthat wrote: »

Russia won't take this lying down
What do you think?

Agree with you there, Mary would no bother.

thisNthat · 01-03-2014 2:03pm

spank_inferno wrote: »

Probably not.

Syria is ferocious because the sides are evenly matched.

However the Ukraine army without a functioning government behind it is in no position to resist a determined Russian incursion.

There will be no shots fired in the short term (IMO).

Russia has sent 6000 troops in to Criema and Obama warns Russia "there will be costs" for military intervention.
This is only getting started, I honestly think this will go on for years and turn out to be a massive war

http://www.thejournal.ie/russia-has-sent-troops-to-crimea-1339313-Mar2014/

spank_inferno · 01-03-2014 2:09pm

thisNthat wrote: »

Russia has sent 6000 troops in to Criema and Obama warns Russia "there will be costs" for military intervention.
This is only getting started, I honestly think this will go on for years and turn out to be a massive war

http://www.thejournal.ie/russia-has-sent-troops-to-crimea-1339313-Mar2014/

Well, if it turns out to be a massive war, I'll buy you a drink.

Chances are there will be no massive war.

darkpagandeath · 01-03-2014 3:42pm

losthorizon wrote: »

Cant see it happening!

The reason there is some trouble in the Crimea is that it was part of Russia up until 60 years ago until it was just given to the Ukraine.

The fact is though that those in Western Ukraine tend to be anti Russian and those in Eastern Russia tend to have less anti Russian feelings but I doubt that Russia will intervene. Ukraine is a very big nation.

The sooner this is sorted out the better though. I would say most people are more worried about earning money to feed their families though.

So when are they taking East Berlin back then ?

losthorizon · 01-03-2014 3:45pm

darkpagandeath wrote: »

So when are they taking East Berlin back then ?

Berlin was always part of a Germany

super_furry · 01-03-2014 3:48pm

People in power will care too much about the situation in the Ukraine escalating and affecting neighbouring countries. There's not as much concern with Syria.

hsilgnede · 01-03-2014 3:56pm

Crimea will be given too/taken by the Russians. The rest of Ukraine will drift towards Europe although the Russians will make it hard for them by turning the gas off.

It won't descend into Syria. Nor will it escalate into world war three because no-one cares enough about it. The Russians will be in and have Crimea secured before the Europeans are done talking about it and the Americans have enough on their plate and probably don't care enough to do anything meaningful about it. Obama has to say something but honestly there's not much he can do. America's not going to war with Russia over the Crimea or even all of Ukraine.

wendell borton · 01-03-2014 4:10pm

Crimea was an independent tatar state before russia invaded, later on stalin then had them deported.

Filibuster · 01-03-2014 4:13pm

No it will be another Northern Ireland. We are at the 1912 Ulster Convenant stage.

sopretty · 01-03-2014 4:14pm

Just read this article. Whatever happens, this won't be pretty.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/putin-asks-to-use-military-in-ukraine-623939.html

Aidric · 01-03-2014 4:22pm

hsilgnede wrote: »

the Russians will make it hard for them by turning the gas off.

Russia will cut off one of it's biggest debtors. You really believe that?

Killer Wench · 01-03-2014 4:41pm

Well, gee, what was the point of the Olympics and all of that brotherly stuff?

Out of all of the escalated war threats from North Korea and Syria, this one from Russia has the biggest potential to become a multi-national explosion.

realweirdo · 01-03-2014 4:44pm

It will likely be more like Afghanistan in the 1980s, a long costly campaign for the Russians who may well leave eventually, but leave behind a destroyed Ukraine.

If Ukraine is invaded and taken over by the Russians, its only a matter a time until more states in Eastern Europe suffer the same fate.

I think the Russians see the weakness of the European Union and what an utterly bankrupt organisation it is with no strength militarily or economically. Merkel and co are weak leaders militarily and hate confrontation.

darkpagandeath · 01-03-2014 4:48pm

losthorizon wrote: »

Berlin was always part of a Germany

when was that country founded ?

Paramite Pie · 01-03-2014 4:52pm

I think Ukraine could lead to a serious stand off between East and West. And let's not forget that China was buying up massive chunks of farmland in Ukraine. I can't help but wonder if they'll get involved.

losthorizon wrote: »

Berlin was always part of a Germany

Never heard of the Cold War? Berlin Wall? Soviet occupation of Germany?

A large chunk of Germany was under Russian control up until 1990 with large numbers of Russian troops stationed there. Berlin was deep in the Russian side although the US also had troops in West Berlin.

thisNthat · 01-03-2014 5:07pm

hsilgnede wrote: »

Crimea will be given too/taken by the Russians. The rest of Ukraine will drift towards Europe although the Russians will make it hard for them by turning the gas off.

It won't descend into Syria. Nor will it escalate into world war three because no-one cares enough about it. The Russians will be in and have Crimea secured before the Europeans are done talking about it and the Americans have enough on their plate and probably don't care enough to do anything meaningful about it. Obama has to say something but honestly there's not much he can do. America's not going to war with Russia over the Crimea or even all of Ukraine.

No-one cares enough about Syria either if we're honest, and that's a mess. If people think Russia will be happy just to secure Crimea and let the rest of their influence over Ukraine go to Europe without a serious battle then I think that naivety at its highest.

America is already making threats to Russia over this. They want a smooth transition of Ukraine to Europe and that ain't gonna happen. The US can't make anymore threats to other countries without following up on them, Its not that long ago they were nearly going into Syria until Joe Biden was asked a question at a press conference about what can Syria do to prevent US intervention and he panicked and said "if they give up all their chemical weapons", Syria and Russia jumped on this and they (Syria) gave up (Supposedly) all their chemical weapons, Have things changed in Syria since?
Not one bit and the US has egg on its face over this.

Obama is already making threats and if he doesn't follow through (Should Russia put more troops in Ukraine, and Russia will) them he'll be made to look a fool again (Making big threats and never following them through). Remindes me of someone on the Korean peninsula.

No this is only starting, Russia will not just be happy with Crimea and there are other ares of Ukraine outside of Crimea with massive Russian support.

01-03-2014 5:32pm

Filibuster wrote: »

No it will be another Northern Ireland. We are at the 1912 Ulster Convenant stage.

No,more likely to be like Cyprus in 1974. A Greek Cypriot government wanted to unify with Greece and the Turkish Cypriots "invited" Turkey in to prevent that from happening.
They did and stayed.

Here a similar situation is unfolding, the difference is that the Ukraine Government wants to look west and the Russian sections of the population want to remain within the Russian field of influence and have therefore invited the Russians in to protect them.

If the Russians do invade, chances are they'll only take the eastern parts and Crimea and leaving the rest to the Ukraine, other wise there will be a major civil war.

sopretty · 01-03-2014 5:41pm

Deleted User wrote: »

No,more likely to be like Cyprus in 1974. A Greek Cypriot government wanted to unify with Greece and the Turkish Cypriots "invited" Turkey in to prevent that from happening.
They did and stayed.

Here a similar situation is unfolding, the difference is that the Ukraine Government wants to look west and the Russian sections of the population want to remain within the Russian field of influence and have therefore invited the Russians in to protect them.

If the Russians do invade, chances are they'll only take the eastern parts and Crimea and leaving the rest to the Ukraine, other wise there will be a major civil war.

I'd fancy my chances against a Turkish army over a Russian army any day!

thisNthat · 01-03-2014 5:42pm

The Russian parliament has granted President Vladimir Putin permission to use the country’s military in Ukraine.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/russia-approves-ukraine-troops-move-623945.html

RichardoKhan · 01-03-2014 5:43pm

To coin a quote if this goes 'Massive' its to be sure the next war will be fought with sticks & stones.......

darkpagandeath · 01-03-2014 6:09pm

RichardoKhan wrote: »

To coin a quote if this goes 'Massive' its to be sure the next war will be fought with sticks & stones.......

No no it's not time to break out the bug out bags yet .. No major government with Nukes will ever use them against a government that has them. It will just Result in MAD

oceanman · 01-03-2014 6:13pm

who gives a flying F! ??

sopretty · 01-03-2014 6:13pm

Where is me iodine tablet when I need it?

thisNthat · 01-03-2014 6:14pm

darkpagandeath wrote: »

No no it's not time to break out the bug out bags yet .. No major government with Nukes will ever use them against a government that has them. It will just Result in MAD

Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
Robert A. Heinlein

darkpagandeath · 01-03-2014 6:16pm

sopretty wrote: »

Where is me iodine tablet when I need it?

You going to paint you house windows and so on white too :P

01-03-2014 6:18pm

I don't this being a major military conflict, there is a greater risk of a Yugoslavia type of "ethnic cleansing" occurring if Russia takes over half the country.

Fitzo · 01-03-2014 6:32pm

This has to potential to be one of the biggest things to happen in World politics if it continues at the pace that it has developed. Russia has been waiting for the chance to reclaim some of it's old territories in the West and this has occurred at a perfect time. There's little anyone can do to stop Russia should decide to take further action in Ukraine beyond the Crimea.

This also sets a huge precedent if the Russians are working under the cover of protecting Russian speakers or Ethnic Russians. Some sweaty bums in the Baltic states...

sopretty · 01-03-2014 6:32pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't this being a major military conflict, there is a greater risk of a Yugoslavia type of "ethnic cleansing" occurring if Russia takes over half the country.

I think there are 3 big players here, namely the EU, the US and Russia, who are not going to like being 'bullied' by Russia and who will each want to see themselves come out on top in this situation. The US has already been shooting its mouth off with the threat of consequences. The EU won't like Russia bearing in on them. There are a lot of 'head-the-balls' involved here. I think it is unlikely the US will just ignore this and turn their backs on Russia's actions here. Maybe they'll decide to just put sanctions or something. I don't know though. I wouldn't bet on it.

Will Ukraine be another Syria?

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