Will Ukraine be another Syria?

thisNthat

Watching the news the last few weeks things seem to be really heating up in Ukraine with Russia putting troops in Crimea,
I'm interested to know if people think this will escalate to another Syria?

Russia won't take this lying down, they're being made to look like the bad guy in all this (maybe they are?)
I see this only getting started and going on for years.
What do you think?

spank_inferno

Probably not.

Syria is ferocious because the sides are evenly matched.

However the Ukraine army without a functioning government behind it is in no position to resist a determined Russian incursion.

There will be no shots fired in the short term (IMO).

losthorizon

Cant see it happening!

The reason there is some trouble in the Crimea is that it was part of Russia up until 60 years ago until it was just given to the Ukraine.

The fact is though that those in Western Ukraine tend to be anti Russian and those in Eastern Russia tend to have less anti Russian feelings but I doubt that Russia will intervene. Ukraine is a very big nation.

The sooner this is sorted out the better though. I would say most people are more worried about earning money to feed their families though.

Sir Arthur Daley

thisNthat wrote: »

Russia won't take this lying down
What do you think?

Agree with you there, Mary would no bother.

thisNthat

spank_inferno wrote: »

Probably not.

Syria is ferocious because the sides are evenly matched.

However the Ukraine army without a functioning government behind it is in no position to resist a determined Russian incursion.

There will be no shots fired in the short term (IMO).

Russia has sent 6000 troops in to Criema and Obama warns Russia "there will be costs" for military intervention.
This is only getting started, I honestly think this will go on for years and turn out to be a massive war

http://www.thejournal.ie/russia-has-sent-troops-to-crimea-1339313-Mar2014/

spank_inferno

thisNthat wrote: »

Russia has sent 6000 troops in to Criema and Obama warns Russia "there will be costs" for military intervention.
This is only getting started, I honestly think this will go on for years and turn out to be a massive war

http://www.thejournal.ie/russia-has-sent-troops-to-crimea-1339313-Mar2014/

Well, if it turns out to be a massive war, I'll buy you a drink.

Chances are there will be no massive war.

darkpagandeath

losthorizon wrote: »

Cant see it happening!

The reason there is some trouble in the Crimea is that it was part of Russia up until 60 years ago until it was just given to the Ukraine.

The fact is though that those in Western Ukraine tend to be anti Russian and those in Eastern Russia tend to have less anti Russian feelings but I doubt that Russia will intervene. Ukraine is a very big nation.

The sooner this is sorted out the better though. I would say most people are more worried about earning money to feed their families though.

So when are they taking East Berlin back then ?

losthorizon

darkpagandeath wrote: »

So when are they taking East Berlin back then ?

Berlin was always part of a Germany

super_furry

People in power will care too much about the situation in the Ukraine escalating and affecting neighbouring countries. There's not as much concern with Syria.

hsilgnede

Crimea will be given too/taken by the Russians. The rest of Ukraine will drift towards Europe although the Russians will make it hard for them by turning the gas off.

It won't descend into Syria. Nor will it escalate into world war three because no-one cares enough about it. The Russians will be in and have Crimea secured before the Europeans are done talking about it and the Americans have enough on their plate and probably don't care enough to do anything meaningful about it. Obama has to say something but honestly there's not much he can do. America's not going to war with Russia over the Crimea or even all of Ukraine.

wendell borton

Crimea was an independent tatar state before russia invaded, later on stalin then had them deported.

Filibuster

No it will be another Northern Ireland. We are at the 1912 Ulster Convenant stage.

sopretty

Just read this article. Whatever happens, this won't be pretty.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/putin-asks-to-use-military-in-ukraine-623939.html

Aidric

hsilgnede wrote: »

the Russians will make it hard for them by turning the gas off.

Russia will cut off one of it's biggest debtors. You really believe that?

Killer Wench

Well, gee, what was the point of the Olympics and all of that brotherly stuff?

Out of all of the escalated war threats from North Korea and Syria, this one from Russia has the biggest potential to become a multi-national explosion.

realweirdo

It will likely be more like Afghanistan in the 1980s, a long costly campaign for the Russians who may well leave eventually, but leave behind a destroyed Ukraine.

If Ukraine is invaded and taken over by the Russians, its only a matter a time until more states in Eastern Europe suffer the same fate.

I think the Russians see the weakness of the European Union and what an utterly bankrupt organisation it is with no strength militarily or economically. Merkel and co are weak leaders militarily and hate confrontation.

darkpagandeath

losthorizon wrote: »

Berlin was always part of a Germany

when was that country founded ?

Paramite Pie

I think Ukraine could lead to a serious stand off between East and West. And let's not forget that China was buying up massive chunks of farmland in Ukraine. I can't help but wonder if they'll get involved.

losthorizon wrote: »

Berlin was always part of a Germany

Never heard of the Cold War? Berlin Wall? Soviet occupation of Germany?

A large chunk of Germany was under Russian control up until 1990 with large numbers of Russian troops stationed there. Berlin was deep in the Russian side although the US also had troops in West Berlin.

thisNthat

hsilgnede wrote: »

Crimea will be given too/taken by the Russians. The rest of Ukraine will drift towards Europe although the Russians will make it hard for them by turning the gas off.

It won't descend into Syria. Nor will it escalate into world war three because no-one cares enough about it. The Russians will be in and have Crimea secured before the Europeans are done talking about it and the Americans have enough on their plate and probably don't care enough to do anything meaningful about it. Obama has to say something but honestly there's not much he can do. America's not going to war with Russia over the Crimea or even all of Ukraine.

No-one cares enough about Syria either if we're honest, and that's a mess. If people think Russia will be happy just to secure Crimea and let the rest of their influence over Ukraine go to Europe without a serious battle then I think that naivety at its highest.

America is already making threats to Russia over this. They want a smooth transition of Ukraine to Europe and that ain't gonna happen. The US can't make anymore threats to other countries without following up on them, Its not that long ago they were nearly going into Syria until Joe Biden was asked a question at a press conference about what can Syria do to prevent US intervention and he panicked and said "if they give up all their chemical weapons", Syria and Russia jumped on this and they (Syria) gave up (Supposedly) all their chemical weapons, Have things changed in Syria since?
Not one bit and the US has egg on its face over this.

Obama is already making threats and if he doesn't follow through (Should Russia put more troops in Ukraine, and Russia will) them he'll be made to look a fool again (Making big threats and never following them through). Remindes me of someone on the Korean peninsula.

No this is only starting, Russia will not just be happy with Crimea and there are other ares of Ukraine outside of Crimea with massive Russian support.

Filibuster

Filibuster wrote: »

No it will be another Northern Ireland. We are at the 1912 Ulster Convenant stage.

No,more likely to be like Cyprus in 1974. A Greek Cypriot government wanted to unify with Greece and the Turkish Cypriots "invited" Turkey in to prevent that from happening.
They did and stayed.

Here a similar situation is unfolding, the difference is that the Ukraine Government wants to look west and the Russian sections of the population want to remain within the Russian field of influence and have therefore invited the Russians in to protect them.

If the Russians do invade, chances are they'll only take the eastern parts and Crimea and leaving the rest to the Ukraine, other wise there will be a major civil war.

sopretty

Deleted User wrote: »

No,more likely to be like Cyprus in 1974. A Greek Cypriot government wanted to unify with Greece and the Turkish Cypriots "invited" Turkey in to prevent that from happening.
They did and stayed.

Here a similar situation is unfolding, the difference is that the Ukraine Government wants to look west and the Russian sections of the population want to remain within the Russian field of influence and have therefore invited the Russians in to protect them.

If the Russians do invade, chances are they'll only take the eastern parts and Crimea and leaving the rest to the Ukraine, other wise there will be a major civil war.

I'd fancy my chances against a Turkish army over a Russian army any day!

thisNthat

The Russian parliament has granted President Vladimir Putin permission to use the country’s military in Ukraine.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/russia-approves-ukraine-troops-move-623945.html

RichardoKhan

To coin a quote if this goes 'Massive' its to be sure the next war will be fought with sticks & stones.......

darkpagandeath

RichardoKhan wrote: »

To coin a quote if this goes 'Massive' its to be sure the next war will be fought with sticks & stones.......

No no it's not time to break out the bug out bags yet .. No major government with Nukes will ever use them against a government that has them. It will just Result in MAD

oceanman

who gives a flying F! ??

sopretty

Where is me iodine tablet when I need it?

thisNthat

darkpagandeath wrote: »

No no it's not time to break out the bug out bags yet .. No major government with Nukes will ever use them against a government that has them. It will just Result in MAD

Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
Robert A. Heinlein

darkpagandeath

sopretty wrote: »

Where is me iodine tablet when I need it?

You going to paint you house windows and so on white too :P

I don't this being a major military conflict, there is a greater risk of a Yugoslavia type of "ethnic cleansing" occurring if Russia takes over half the country.

Fitzo

This has to potential to be one of the biggest things to happen in World politics if it continues at the pace that it has developed. Russia has been waiting for the chance to reclaim some of it's old territories in the West and this has occurred at a perfect time. There's little anyone can do to stop Russia should decide to take further action in Ukraine beyond the Crimea.

This also sets a huge precedent if the Russians are working under the cover of protecting Russian speakers or Ethnic Russians. Some sweaty bums in the Baltic states...

sopretty

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't this being a major military conflict, there is a greater risk of a Yugoslavia type of "ethnic cleansing" occurring if Russia takes over half the country.

I think there are 3 big players here, namely the EU, the US and Russia, who are not going to like being 'bullied' by Russia and who will each want to see themselves come out on top in this situation. The US has already been shooting its mouth off with the threat of consequences. The EU won't like Russia bearing in on them. There are a lot of 'head-the-balls' involved here. I think it is unlikely the US will just ignore this and turn their backs on Russia's actions here. Maybe they'll decide to just put sanctions or something. I don't know though. I wouldn't bet on it.

ceadaoin.

losthorizon wrote: »

Cant see it happening!

The reason there is some trouble in the Crimea is that it was part of Russia up until 60 years ago until it was just given to the Ukraine.

The fact is though that those in Western Ukraine tend to be anti Russian and those in Eastern Russia tend to have less anti Russian feelings but I doubt that Russia will intervene. Ukraine is a very big nation.

The sooner this is sorted out the better though. I would say most people are more worried about earning money to feed their families though.

I'd say any Tatars living in Crimea are fairly worried about more than money

sopretty

2 questions: What is Russia going to do - deploy Russian troops to take control of Ukraine?
Also, has the EU made any statement(s) about the situation?

The Backwards Man

This thread has reminded me why I never watch Fox or Sky News.

MRnotlob606

The Ukraine values the Crimea strategically as the russias have one of there major naval bases there. they couldnt care who lives in all fairness

thisNthat

So the UK's response to Russia's military intervention in Ukraine is to withdraw from preparatory talks due to be held in the coming days for the G8 summit in Sochi in June.
That should teach the Russian's, Putin must be shaking :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Diabhal Beag

Heard Russia are trying to squash the beef by having a festival in Kiev tomorrow. It'll be on in Indiependence Square.

Manach

From what I remember of the old days of the Cold War, the Russians will act in a interventist fashion to deemed security issues in bordering countries: ie the same as the US with their Monroe doctrine.

nacho libre

The Russians are doing what the Israelis do; creating facts on the ground, so Obama can issue all the condemnatory statements he likes, but there is nothing he can do now to change whats about to happen. Crimea will become part of Russia. The Republicans are going to hammer Obama over this as being once again being weak and impotent...

hsilgnede

Aidric wrote: »

Russia will cut off one of it's biggest debtors. You really believe that?

For the chance to flex their muscle and secure the Crimea? Definitly. Ukraine needs the gas more than Russia needs the money.

Pumpkinseeds

I don't see much coming of it tbh. There'll be lots of posturing on all sides, Obama, Merkel, Cameron et al will issue grave warnings, NATO will take it's usual impotent stance. There is no appetite for a war with Russia, it doesn't directly affect America or Britain so it would be very difficult to sell a war to the public who are already being squeezed financially.

force eleven

There is no way Putin is looking for a confrontation with NATO. He has taken a calculated gamble to move now to protect, what he sees as, Russia's interests.

Crimea really should never have been part of Ukraine, you can blame Khrushchev for that.

I speculate that Putin, seeing things in Kiev swing away from Russia, towards a Pro-EU/NATO stance, could not wait for 'discussions and 'negotiations' in the vacuum now created by Yanukovych leaving office. He may even look at other parts of Eastern Ukraine to 'protect' but that really would up the ante.

Obama and Kerry have no sway whatsoever, sanctions are not going to work, and Russia does have some grip on Europe in terms of gas supplies. but not as strong a grip as some would think.

Ultimately I don't think this will result in conflict, in terms of Crimea, but if he decides to move into Eastern Ukraine, where he has a good deal of support, there will be fighting.

MRnotlob606

crimea will be giving autonomy and ukraine will do nothing

fergiesfolly

There will be a referendum in Crimea at the end of this month.
The ethnic Russian majority will vote for full independence from Ukraine( and may thereafter vote to join Russia) and Putin will have gotten his way.
The US, EU and other western powers will posture and threaten action until after the vote, but won't actually do anything.
They can't very well argue against the democratic will of the people and the worlds media will move onto the next crisis( which will also see a lot of posturing,but no action)

Fiery mutant

Actually the vote to have a referendum only came about because only pro Russian parliament members were allowed into the parliament building at the time. All other members were kicked out, so hardly democratic process taking place there. Even if the vote was fair, you can be sure Putin will comeup with another BS excuse to do what he wants. Russia will not give it up plain and simple.

The vast difference here is in actions. Russia mobilised a plan and acted on it in 48 hours, the same as with Georgia in 2008. The EU and US couldn't agree on the colour of sh1te in 48 hours. The West will once again be left with egg on their faces, while Russia will once again do as it pleases.

Putin is old school, as much as I hate the old ****, he is efficient. Obama and all the other western leaders are useless. What Europe misses now is leaders like Churchill, ballsy and not afraid to man the **** up.

The days of being bullied by the Ruskies are back.

spank_inferno

Maybe, just maybe Europe will start to look at energy policy properly.

The Republicans in the US frequently bang on that energy independence is a national security issue & so they act.

Here, a few NIMBYS can halt the only decent bit of natural gas we have coming ashore while others ensure wind energy is stunted.

If the west could spend some time developing energy resources so we wouldn't have to be so dependent on despots, it would be easier to grow a pair on the geopolitical field.

rockonollie

More sabre-rattling today......"not"-Russian soldiers at the entrance to a ukrainian army base fired warning shots as unarmed Ukranian soldiers approached them this morning.
Now there's reports that the Russian navy have blocked the passage in and out of the Black Sea and Ukranian ships stationed around the mediterranean are now speeding in that direction.

thisNthat

Is Estonia next? or eastern Ukraine? HERE

sopretty

thisNthat wrote: »

Is Estonia next? or eastern Ukraine? HERE

Sh*te. I'd believe Reuters as being a credible source. F**K

Iwasfrozen

sopretty wrote: »

Sh*te. I'd believe Reuters as being a credible source. F**K

This should have been nipped in the bud weeks ago when Russia entered Crimea. If Russia can get away with annoying land from one country it will do the same thing again. NATO needs to come down hard if Russia tries anything with Estonia.

thisNthat

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

This should have been nipped in the bud weeks ago when Russia entered Crimea. If Russia can get away with annoying land from one country it will do the same thing again. NATO needs to come down hard if Russia tries anything with Estonia.

Agreed, but, what are they gonna do? Seriously? War?

Who against who?

Sanctions ha ha that's a joke,

As I said in my OP, This is just getting started (Unfortunately )