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Heifer prices 2015/2016

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  • 06-02-2014 10:08am
    #1
    freedominacup
    Registered Users Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭


    Sticking to the post 2015 prediction craze that's sweeping F&F at the moment. What will dairy heifers be making next spring and the one after? Is it certain that they will be mad money? Don't the majority of the incumbents incl everyone here have a good supply of heifers for the coming years and if we do how much extra demand will there be and where will it come from? I know it seems like a no brainer that they will be very expensive but in quota times 10-12k head of an oversupply nationally could knock £200 off the value of dairy heifers and with all of these extra girls knocking around will the demand be there to soak them up?


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    #2
    stanflt
    Registered Users Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭stanflt


    freedominacup wrote: »
    Sticking to the post 2015 prediction craze that's sweeping F&F at the moment. What will dairy heifers be making next spring and the one after? Is it certain that they will be mad money? Don't the majority of the incumbents incl everyone here have a good supply of heifers for the coming years and if we do how much extra demand will there be and where will it come from? I know it seems like a no brainer that they will be very expensive but in quota times 10-12k head of an oversupply nationally could knock £200 off the value of dairy heifers and with all of these extra girls knocking around will the demand be there to soak them up?


    Heifer prices predicted to jump 2-800 euro a head


    In reality quota kept prices down
    Take one of my cows for example
    9000 litres delivered per year at 18cpl avg

    Nearly 1800 in revenue and then you also get a calf

    If she doesn't make 2200 why would I sell her

    Give a man a cheap cow and he has no risk with her

    Takes a lot of looking after animals to get them calving at 2 yo


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    #3
    bob charles
    Registered Users Posts: 6,343 ✭✭✭bob charles


    Allot will depend on our TB situation I would think, if things start going like the UK, which they seem to be around me, it will have a serious effect on price. On the supply side is that every cow will be getting sexed semen and the herd could have 75% replacement with such and not effect price. How much things cost to supply may become irrelevant with market forces, just look at the beef business


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    #4
    Gillespy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,220 ✭✭✭Gillespy


    Rubbing my hands at the thought of bumper heifer and cow prices. Those of us with modest expansion plans will cash in.


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    #5
    sheebadog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭sheebadog


    Prepping here to collect also. Building up numbers hard ATM. Using 30% sexed now and will probably go 75% next year.
    The plan is to build up a good production quota with the Coop and if things in dairy look like they will overheat, I'll sell the lot.
    Easy enough to get back in later.


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    #6
    keep going
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,551 ✭✭✭keep going


    Just wondering whats going on in your area as regards post 2015, the general feeling in west cork seems to be that there will be more milk produced by incumbent suppliers but there isn't a heap of new suppliers coming.its sort of reflected in dairy stock prices in that in bulling heifers and heifer calves are not going mad all together


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    #7
    biddy2013
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,643 ✭✭✭biddy2013


    had 2 fellas ring me in the last week selling dairy stock. Calved cows and heifers, is there no market for them at the minute?


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    #8
    Brown Podzol
    Registered Users Posts: 1,847 ✭✭✭Brown Podzol


    biddy2013 wrote: »
    had 2 fellas ring me in the last week selling dairy stock. Calved cows and heifers, is there no market for them at the minute?

    I have had four enquiries for dairy stock since Christmas, all for export to Uk. It's the price of milk at the moment and the tb situation that is creating the demand in the UK and looking ahead I think the price of milk will be the main driver of heifer price here. A strong milk price and unfettered production and we could be importing dairy stock. Personally over €2k and I would be selling the bottom end of my heifers and not making a fortune considering the cost, effort and generations of breeding in them and if they are not making this price then sexed semen to produce enough replacements for my own herd and AA bulls to clean up.


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    #9
    Farmer Pudsey
    Registered Users Posts: 6,326 ✭✭✭Farmer Pudsey


    It will all be dependent on milk price. A strong milk price(above 35c/L) weill see strong prices for dairy heifers. A price below this down around the 30c/L will really dampen prices. The good operator will hold off at high prices and wait for realistic prices. When sexed semen is completely proven technology it will be time to get out of town The glut of heifers for the first year or two will dampen prices


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    #10
    milkprofit
    Registered Users Posts: 1,168 ✭✭✭milkprofit


    biddy2013 wrote: »
    had 2 fellas ring me in the last week selling dairy stock. Calved cows and heifers, is there no market for them at the minute?

    What price i have 10 to sell


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    #11
    biddy2013
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,643 ✭✭✭biddy2013


    milkprofit wrote: »
    What price i have 10 to sell
    i didnt go there. Not interested at the minute


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    #12
    sheebadog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭sheebadog


    Cows are a strong trade in this neck of the woods.
    In fact they are hard to source, I'm having to go to Holland to get some sort of a selection. Good money too.


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    #13
    maxxuumman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭maxxuumman


    sheebadog wrote: »
    Cows are a strong trade in this neck of the woods.
    In fact they are hard to source, I'm having to go to Holland to get some sort of a selection. Good money too.

    Is the strong trade down to milk price, or expansion for 2015.


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    #14
    sheebadog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭sheebadog


    maxxuumman wrote: »
    Is the strong trade down to milk price, or expansion for 2015.

    Both Max. All dairy around here are either getting out or getting bigger.

    Price also inflates.


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    #15
    frazzledhome
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,278 ✭✭✭frazzledhome


    Bulling heifers are a strong trade, if you have the right ones


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    #16
    moy83
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,701 ✭✭✭moy83


    sheebadog wrote: »
    Both Max. All dairy around here are either getting out or getting bigger.

    Price also inflates.

    Do ye use many xbreeds over there or stick mostly to pedigree ?


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    #17
    sheebadog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭sheebadog


    moy83 wrote: »
    Do ye use many xbreeds over there or stick mostly to pedigree ?

    Xbreeding is frowned upon even the beef breeds would be pure.
    However I'm trying some crosses.


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    #18
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users Posts: 11,095 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    sheebadog wrote: »
    Xbreeding is frowned upon even the beef breeds would be pure.
    However I'm trying some crosses.

    Down with that sort of thing!!!!.ill have no support left here soon


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    #19
    stanflt
    Registered Users Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭stanflt


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    Down with that sort of thing!!!!.ill have no support left here soon


    Looking at bulls in the lic catelog last week would have me tempted

    Big decisions ahead


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    #20
    frazzledhome
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,278 ✭✭✭frazzledhome


    stanflt wrote: »
    Looking at bulls in the lic catelog last week would have me tempted

    Big decisions ahead

    Tell ye boys, it would be some boost to ye're business'


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    #21
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users Posts: 11,095 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    stanflt wrote: »
    Looking at bulls in the lic catelog last week would have me tempted

    Big decisions ahead

    It'd be a massive decison all right stan,especially for a herd like yours.youve got nearly a complete package.a fertile cow that dose a high volume of milk with high kg of solids.and to think its with all high ebi Holstein freisans makes it all the better.do you not feel that if u go x breeding you will devalue your herd as stock sales will also take a hit.personaly think your going the right way as it is by dropping volume to 7500 delievered on 1.2 or 1.4 tonne of meal.


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    #22
    stanflt
    Registered Users Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭stanflt


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    It'd be a massive decison all right stan,especially for a herd like yours.youve got nearly a complete package.a fertile cow that dose a high volume of milk with high kg of solids.and to think its with all high ebi Holstein freisans makes it all the better.do you not feel that if u go x breeding you will devalue your herd as stock sales will also take a hit.personaly think your going the right way as it is by dropping volume to 7500 delievered on 1.2 or 1.4 tonne of meal.


    Yeah I definitely won't need to cross breed
    There is hols bull available next year with milk sub indexes of 127
    With great breeding behind
    Wink wink nudge nudge
    Just off the press


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    #23
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users Posts: 11,095 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    stanflt wrote: »
    Yeah I definitely won't need to cross breed
    There is hols bull available next year with milk sub indexes of 127
    With great breeding behind
    Wink wink nudge nudge
    Just off the
    Postman bought u good news this am so stan!!


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    #24
    stanflt
    Registered Users Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭stanflt


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    stanflt wrote: »
    Yeah I definitely won't need to cross breed
    There is hols bull available next year with milk sub indexes of 127
    With great breeding behind
    Wink wink nudge nudge
    Just off the
    Postman bought u good news this am so stan!!


    Got a phone call

    I knew on fri evening as 4 calves out of a group of 5 came back as the usual text and there was no text for this calf

    Dam did 5.46 fat and 3.76 p 7200 litres and calved 330 days as a heifer

    She is an flt


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    #25
    sheebadog
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,246 ✭✭✭sheebadog


    stanflt wrote: »
    mahoney_j wrote: »


    Got a phone call

    I knew on fri evening as 4 calves out of a group of 5 came back as the usual text and there was no text for this calf

    Dam did 5.46 fat and 3.76 p 7200 litres and calved 330 days as a heifer

    She is an flt

    I'd take a few heifers like that off of you Stan!
    My solids are a disgrace. That's the reason I'm xbreeding into Swiss Brown.
    Using a few Jerseys also.
    BTW congrats.


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    #26
    Gillespy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,220 ✭✭✭Gillespy


    It's a big decision for me too. Do I open it or put in straight into the bin? I really should ask LIC to stop sending me stuff.

    Congrats on your bull, Stan. Goodness knows why you want to even consider crossbreeding. You've the best of both worlds.


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    #27
    mahoney_j
    Registered Users Posts: 11,095 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    stanflt wrote: »
    mahoney_j wrote: »


    Got a phone call

    I knew on fri evening as 4 calves out of a group of 5 came back as the usual text and there was no text for this calf

    Dam did 5.46 fat and 3.76 p 7200 litres and calved 330 days as a heifer

    She is an flt

    Expecting results of mine back this week,hope I get a phone call and not a text!!.13 gone so far.i have one praticular pkr bull that dovea,euro gene and ncbc all sent me letters for and also got a phone call from dovea and ncbc just to check he isxstill there.fingers crossed.presume if a calf is selected they take him fairly quick.congrats also by the way!!!.what sort of ebi are we talking about


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    #28
    stanflt
    Registered Users Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭stanflt


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    stanflt wrote: »

    Expecting results of mine back this week,hope I get a phone call and not a text!!.13 gone so far.i have one praticular pkr bull that dovea,euro gene and ncbc all sent me letters for and also got a phone call from dovea and ncbc just to check he isxstill there.fingers crossed.presume if a calf is selected they take him fairly quick.congrats also by the way!!!.what sort of ebi are we talking about


    Over 300 but the milk sub index is 127 which is one of the highest yet


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    #29
    Milked out
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,433 ✭✭✭Milked out


    mahoney_j wrote: »
    stanflt wrote: »

    Expecting results of mine back this week,hope I get a phone call and not a text!!.13 gone so far.i have one praticular pkr bull that dovea,euro gene and ncbc all sent me letters for and also got a phone call from dovea and ncbc just to check he isxstill there.fingers crossed.presume if a calf is selected they take him fairly quick.congrats also by the way!!!.what sort of ebi are we talking about

    Once the genomic results come back the right way they will take two bloods from the calf and dam and test those for ibr in the calf and johnes in the dam,not sure wat else, may take about 3 weeks. They seem to be really looking for production to go with the fertility side


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    #30
    stanflt
    Registered Users Posts: 4,375 ✭✭✭stanflt


    Milked out wrote: »
    mahoney_j wrote: »

    Once the genomic results come back the right way they will take two bloods from the calf and dam and test those for ibr in the calf and johnes in the dam,not sure wat else, may take about 3 weeks. They seem to be really looking for production to go with the fertility side



    Jersey like solids with hols production


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    #31
    Milked out
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,433 ✭✭✭Milked out


    stanflt wrote: »
    Milked out wrote: »



    Jersey like solids with hols production

    Munster bought one of our autumn bulls, and talking to the man that called to us he reckoned high yielding high solids bulls is what fellas will be looking for once milking blocks are fully stocked, Its what a lot a lads are looking for already. Do you reckon the current crop of genomic bulls will stay for a number of years or will there always be the new bulls coming?


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