Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

maquiladora

Yeah interesting GFS. Though ECM/HIRLAM proved to be king with the last storm, so I reckon this is low probability unless the ECM has it. How do the ECM postage stamps look?

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah interesting GFS. Though ECM/HIRLAM proved to be king with the last storm, so I reckon this is low probability unless the ECM has it. How do the ECM postage stamps look?

Overall the postage stamps are not very developmental, but the time frames aren't the best as only 72hrs and 96hrs available.

Strangegravy

Violent storm force winds off the south coast on Thurs morning according to the GFS. I'm getting a sense of deja vu here.

Wondering is it worth putting the fence panels back up, wouldn't take much to develop this and send it a bit north and right down our throats again here in Limerick.

Another week of close model watching ahead!

ninebeanrows

First model out, the GME does develop a feature crossing the country. Now the model is not great but it didn't have the feature on this mornings run. So perhaps a sign that models later this evening will make more of the feature than on previous output.

The next few hours will be telling.

ninebeanrows

12z a bit less threatening but still one to keep a close eye on.

With the prospect of some rapid development of the system over Ireland, the system remains a very real threat.

Let's see what the UKM and ECM et al. make of it.

ninebeanrows

UKM takes the feature in to southwest Britain.

However it is a big move forward for the UKM to even show the feature, as didn't really develop any closed centre on the 0z. So i would not pay to much attention to the placement of this feature at the moment!

- The important fact is it is being picked up and is a development can deliver very high winds.

IT-Guy

In Youghal again today, rain has only eased off now, been non stop since around 12. I guess regardless of the rain, Youghal is feeling super as the double rainbow shows

maquiladora

Worth keeping an eye on for sure. It really is something where you'd want the ECM's higher resolution.

maquiladora

12Z GEM is very similar to the 12Z GFS in appearance at 72 hours. The potential for some kind of wet and windy, if not stormy, conditions has increased since this morning with two models now showing something very similar and two other models not too far away either. 12Z ECM will be most important of them all, it's usually the best model and it's higher resolution should do a better job at resolving the evolution and structure of this type of small, quickly developing low that may develop.

sunbabe08

Just heard on the radio that met eireann said there will b no signifcant storms, just normal winter weather. Eh that's something that they pretty much said last week as well & look what happened :-\

ninebeanrows

GFS Ensembles not making much of it. Will be interesting to see whether ECMWF even picks it up at all!

SpaceTime

If it tracks North of Scotland (not looking likely) at least it might indicate an end to this cycle.

ninebeanrows

ECMWF having none of it.

xXxkorixXx

I am flying dublin to heathrow next monday morning. Can anyone tell me what it will be like weather wise? thanks

maquiladora

No closed low on the ECM. Weaker than GFS, GEM, GME and UKMO.

Hard to bet against the ECM at 72 hours...but too early to call with a lack of model agreement.

I think the potential for a wet and windy spell is still there, but probably not severe. Hard to imagine the ECM being that far off the mark at this range.

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Hard to bet against the ECM at 72 hours...but too early to call with a lack of model agreement.

12Z WRF at +70 not heeding the advice.............

ninebeanrows

WRF is initialised with GFS boundary data so you'd expect it to be quite similar to the global model, just resolves the pressure systems better and gives a better idea of surface conditions having a much higher resolution.

ninebeanrows

Very few ECMWF ensembles back the idea of a significant low pressure system.

A few develop a closed low with a tight enough gradient but most are northing to be too concerned with.

Will be interesting to see whether the GFS 18z drops the idea or keeps it.

Villain

Interesting that the short term (beta) forecast on Met Eireann didn't show any of this intense rain that has we have seen in past hour, the NMM model was closest

Iancar29

Villain wrote: »

Interesting that the short term (beta) forecast on Met Eireann didn't show any of this intense rain that has we have seen in past hour, the NMM model was closest

Yep , saw it on the NMM last night , always very good for short term convection IMO , over the last two years i always rely on it

ninebeanrows

The signal for that developing low is being diluted further on the 18z

- But still something to keep an eye on.

Duiske

Villain wrote: »

Interesting that the short term (beta) forecast on Met Eireann didn't show any of this intense rain that has we have seen in past hour, the NMM model was closest

Co. Cavan getting a right deluge all evening from that.

hotwhiskey

Duiske wrote: »

Co. Cavan getting a right deluge all evening from that.

The rain here for the past 5 hours has been horrendous. We have rivers of water flowing down many roads with water inlets not able to take the volume of water. Outside my own house there is a constant 4ft wide stream of water flowing by. This will do some serious flooding to low lying areas in this region.

lolie

Duiske wrote: »

Co. Cavan getting a right deluge all evening from that.

Must have had about an inch of rain here this evenin, easing off now. Few roads near here flooded but passable.
As hotwhiskey said theres gonna be a lot of land flooded after this, if it wasnt bad enough already.

sdanseo

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

I am flying dublin to heathrow next monday morning. Can anyone tell me what it will be like weather wise? thanks

Hard to forecast accurate high winds at 24-36 hrs - impossible beyond that with any accuracy at all or degree of confidence.

You're asking about +168hrs - we could use a random number generator and come up with more accurate information or advice I'm afraid

pauldry

isnt it always windy ?

would probably say windy and showery is 60% likely at least

dry and sunny 1%(jokin but less likely alright)

ninebeanrows

Looks like we will get away with it Thursday. ECMWF certainly the form horse at the moment.

hotwhiskey

Here is a few pics on my way to work after the torrential rain here yesterday. Its all over local radio this morning with the fire department on speaking on call outs of serious flooding in Co Cavan.

Iancar29

Estimated radar accumulations for the last 24hrs in mms. Fairly high considering the already saturated ground it all fell on.

Villain

Iancar29 wrote: »

Estimated radar accumulations for the last 24hrs in mms. Fairly high considering the already saturated ground it all fell on.

Where did you get that chart?