Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

M.T. Cranium

The weather crew have been tracking a rapidly intensifying low that is expected to track northeast across Ireland Tuesday night. By late afternoon this will be near or just southwest of Valentia at 947 mb, and winds from the southeast to south could gust over 120 km/hr near the south coast and in exposed locations inland. In early stages of the storm, heavy rain and southeast to east gales will spread over most regions (30 mm rains could bring rapid onset of flooding; strong winds and high tides could combine to produce another round of coastal flooding).

By later Tuesday evening, with the centre near Shannon, very strong winds will rapidly spread north up the east coast affecting Wicklow and Dublin.

Although some areas will see slack winds for a time Tuesday night, a later phase of the storm will involve moderate to strong westerly winds in most regions.

Although I have started this discussion with a level 2 title, it would not be out of place to mention level 3 concern for coastal flooding and even some isolated wind gusts over 130 km/hr. I am fairly confident that the offshore Kinsale energy platform will record gusts near 90-100 knots and some of the more exposed south coast stations could see 70-80 knots, if brief in duration, due to the forward speed and strong gradient of this storm.

I wanted to start a new thread partly to have editing capability during the late overnight when it may be more possible to assess the exact details of this dangerous storm.

We are of course also concerned about potential for Saturday's deep low.

Steopo

Did MT just say potentially 100knt gust @ Kinsale Energy just 50km off the South coast, that would be 185km/h, surely not.

I know we're all focusing on our own patch but it does look like South West UK & Northern France are going to take an even bigger hammering than us on Wed morning - strongest winds, largest sea swell,heavy rain & high tides all combining at the same time. So expect to see lots of Sky New reports standing in 3ft of water

Cogsy88

Somerset is still flooded since the last round of storms. Looks like der gona take a hit from this one aswell.

_Whimsical_

Where is Saturdays storm looking likely to hit ?

maquiladora

Looks like a double cloud head.

flynnlives

Is this a potential Hurricane event?



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

947mb!!

uncle_sam_ie

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like a double cloud head.

Nearly looks like the eye of a hurricane to me.

maquiladora

flynnlives wrote: »

Is this a potential Hurricane event?

It just means Force 12 (hurricane force) winds at sea. It's not at all unusual with Atlantic lows like this, and those winds won't reach Irish coasts.

uncle_sam_ie wrote: »

Nearly looks like the eye of a hurricane to me.

The darkest area is a patch of dry air. Something you often see with deepening depressions.

M.T. Cranium

Yep, those dark circles often appear between 30W and 10W on Atlantic lows, something I've been researching because I have the hunch they are connected to geomagnetic field variables. They are features on infra-red rather than visible images where you would see more low-level cloud disguising the features.

When I said 90-100 knots at the Kinsale platform, this translates to 80 knots at the surface. We'll see what the extreme gust readings are, soon enough. The modelling may show the winds and waves heading to Cornwall and Brittany but the storm makes a fairly steady northeast turn while deepening, so take it seriously if you're anywhere near the south coast and for the Irish Sea, all that excess water has to go somewhere, there again, expect some very large swells and waves.

By the time the 00z models come in, there will only be a few hours of preparation time but we may have a new perspective on this storm by morning. Of course I'll be around all night, it is only supper time here.

dacogawa

Thanks for the update MT, very much appreciated. Was about to 'hit the sack' but your warning made me 'hit the charts' :eek: it really has picked up, it looks like the south & east coasts are going to get a hammering from this & I'd passed it as I was waiting for Friday night/Saturday morning.

From my perspective the coast of Wexford & all along the Irish sea coast are going to hit a lot worse than we have been hit so far this winter ? would love a bit of your insight on this.

Going to go batten down the hatches now...

Not sure if what I'm about to say makes sense but anyway. :P On BBC there it showed yesterday's low being pushed out north/west as tonight's low moves in. What'll happen to that old system? Will it just fizzle out? Or could it come back with more rain in a few days?

zenno

Met Éireann has warned that another Atlantic storm depression is heading for Ireland today.

It has issued a status orange wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford, with gusts of up to 115km/h forecast.

Flooding can be expected along eastern and southern coasts.
A yellow wind warning has been issued for the rest of the country, with gusts of up to 100km/h expected and river flooding likely.
The warnings are valid from 3pm this afternoon until 9am tomorrow..

BuilderPlumber

What month is this again !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

dsmythy

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

What month is this again !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last month of winter.

M.T. Cranium

Once again, I have drawn up a map indicating expected alert levels for tonight's approaching storm.



The south coast will see wind gusts to 130 km/hr and a solid level 2 to borderline level 3 for winds, but more of a potential level 3 for local flooding at the evening high tides. Some heavy rainfalls will add to this flood potential around Cork and Waterford.

The inland south and east coast will be mostly in a level 2 wind and rainfall situation as well as (for the east coast and some parts of the west coast) a level 2 status for coastal flooding although this could increase to level 3 in a few locations, your local flood authorities will of course be your best guide on this, but would be on high alert near the Wicklow and Dublin-Meath coasts at the overnight high tides.

Most of the central to northern regions will barely make it into level 1 wind speeds, with part of that risk coming in a second phase of the storm later on Wednesday, but rainfalls could be a solid level 1 to isolated level 2 here.

Marine areas off the south coast could see force 12 (hurricane) conditions by late afternoon and evening, with force 9-10 likely spreading into the Irish Sea. Western marine areas will actually be at their worst early in the event and will see a reduction in winds towards evening if the low tracks as expected into west Munster and northeastward. I am speculating that the offshore Kinsale energy platform could record gusts in excess of 85 knots around 6 p.m. to midnight, perhaps even into the 90s. This would signal coastal gusts of about 70-80 knots at locations such as Sherkin Island, Roches Point and 50-60 knots at some inland stations but 60-70 knots at more exposed inland locations, and be alert for 80-100 knot gusts on summits of most mountains in Ireland with the higher values likely in the southeast. Anyone venturing above 500m today without a high level of protection should confine their excursions to the hours before 1 p.m. when very strong winds can be expected to begin over exposed areas.

Some thunderstorms may be embedded in the large area of moderate to heavy rain moving inland during the afternoon and early evening, most likely to see lightning would be the southeastern counties and also around Donegal Bay.

Red Nissan

Mods: I did not automatically follow this thread, as had been happening.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Red Nissan wrote: »

Mods: I did not automatically follow this thread, as had been happening.

It's a new thread

DOCARCH

Cloud from this storm system now flirting with SW coast. http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true

Hard to believe what's in store, maybe in 12 hours time, as it's calm, clear and frosty here this morning (0.5c atm).

Tom Cruises Left Nut

DOCARCH wrote: »

Cloud from this storm system now flirting with SW coast. http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true

Hard to believe what's in store, maybe in 12 hours time, as it's calm, clear and frosty here this morning (0.5c atm).

Aye, lovely walk to work up by Dublin Port

Not looking forward to the walk back this evening !

To Sat24 with me !

maquiladora

The latest sea area forecast has gale force 8-9 winds for Irish coasts, so I don't think we are looking at a severe wind event here since storm force winds aren't even in the forecast for coasts. It looks to me like maximum winds will be similar to yesterday morning with a chance of being a little higher at times, though the Met Eireann warning is for gusts to 115 km/h which would be slightly lower than Monday. The period of strong winds will last for a longer duration than on Monday though.

The strongest winds will be on the southern flank of the low, but those strong winds will be staying well offshore to our south. Usually these lows take a more northerly track and that core of strong winds would be heading for the west/northwest coast.

Like Monday, the main feature of this will be the risk of coastal flooding on south and east coasts. That flooding could be similar to yesterday morning, perhaps a bit worse or a bit less severe, depending on how things go.

Tazio

Screenshot taken from the website:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-13.00,53.01,2154

I'm my very amateur mind that's a nice looking shape...

red_bairn

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Aye, lovely walk to work up by Dublin Port

Not looking forward to the walk back this evening !

To Sat24 with me !

Just got in to Fleet St. You wouldn't think that it was gonna be awful later. It feels like a crisp "spring" morning.

simply simple

red_bairn wrote: »

Just got in to Fleet St. You wouldn't think that it was gonna be awful later. It feels like a crisp "spring" morning.

thats what I got from my 5 years old. look mummy ,its spring yay....:):rolleyes:

fryup

so what time will it hit the midlands??

ninebeanrows

I think we will see a period of very strong winds into the Dublin area around 9pm, gusting to 55/60kt, however low tide is that time so coastal flooding won't be an issue here.

Another phase of high winds is then expected from around 4am-10am and i think high tide is due at 4am, at this stage though gusts here just 45-50kt.

red_bairn

simply simple wrote: »

thats what I got from my 5 years old. look mummy ,its spring yay....:):rolleyes:

Oh hi mum! :pac:

barney 20v

From what i've been reading both here and on other pages this is going to have a big impact on Wexford Town and county, its so unusual to have strong s/e winds like those forcast.
Is this storm likely to see Wexford town and even New Ross flooded again?

Lando Griffin

Heading away tonight from Cork, if I leave the recycling bin out will the binmen be working Wednesday; its very full.

maquiladora

Rainfall warning added.

patneve2

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we will see a period of very strong winds into the Dublin area around 9pm, gusting to 55/60kt, however low tide is that time so coastal flooding won't be an issue here.

Another phase of high winds is then expected from around 4am-10am and i think high tide is due at 4am, at this stage though gusts here just 45-50kt.

I agree, but I think that exposed coastal locations might get a few 65 knot gusts...

maquiladora

barney 20v wrote: »

From what i've been reading both here and on other pages this is going to have a big impact on Wexford Town and county, its so unusual to have strong s/e winds like those forcast.
Is this storm likely to see Wexford town and even New Ross flooded again?

High tide in New Ross will be about 1ft lower tonight than yesterday morning and the winds will be more southeasterly and less of a straight southerly than yesterday so the tidal surge may not be as bad there. Wexford town might be more likely to flood due to the wind direction. What are the council saying?

Iancar29

Though I'd rather some weather like today ( sunny and crisp ) for a good few days at this stage ....

Sure have to say that this next storm is a BEAUTY on Sat!

Cantona's Collars

maquiladora wrote: »

High tide in New Ross will be about 1ft lower tonight than yesterday morning and the winds will be more southeasterly and less of a straight southerly than yesterday so the tidal surge may not be as bad there. Wexford town might be more likely to flood due to the wind direction. What are the council saying?

I'm here in Enniscorthy,it's low tide and the river is running very high,it would take very little rain to flood the town,not a sandbag in sight.Over Xmas there were loads left around to be used but we escaped the worst of it as the storms were more focused along the West,this time with this neck of the woods in the firing line there seems to be zero preparation.Of course we'll see the usual handwringing & get soundbites from councillors as once more the town is innundated with water.

Starting to cloud over here already after blue skies earlier.

diceyd

how long is this likely to last?

Tzardine

I love this map. It looks like we are going to be bashed

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-2.35,54.25,1087

patneve2

diceyd wrote: »

how long is this likely to last?

Winds will be strong starting this afternoon until tomorrow morning. Peak on E Coast will be sometime between 8 pm and 11 pm. Possible gusts I'd say of about 58 knots at Dublin airport and 65 knots on exposed coastal areas. Wouldn't be surprised if a location like Rosslare saw 65-68 kt gusts

daelight

Strituck wrote: »

I love this map. It looks like we are going to be bashed

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-2.35,54.25,1087

Need to set to 'Sfc' otherwise looking at winds 1000hpa (330 ft) above sea level, which are a few km/h higher...

Colser

Wind definitely starting to pick up here sth side Cork city..gone from very calm to howling around the chimney...could this be the start of the big one ?:)

MiNdGaM3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yep, those dark circles often appear between 30W and 10W on Atlantic lows, something I've been researching because I have the hunch they are connected to geomagnetic field variables. They are features on infra-red rather than visible images where you would see more low-level cloud disguising the features.

Any chance of elaborating on this? The connection of the dry air patches to geomagnetic field variables.

Oscar Bravo

A 1200 update from Met Eireann

Dry in many areas at first with some bright or sunny spells. Heavy rain accompanied by strong to gale force Southeast winds will move in to Munster and South Leinster this afternoon and will spread countrywide this evening. Further flooding is likely to occur, especially in exposed coastal counties of the South and Southeast at times of the high tides. Some severe gusts are likely on exposed coasts also. Top temperatures will range 5 to 9 C.
Tonight

It will be extremely windy and blustery for much of tonight, with the winds moderating later. There will be further heavy rain or thundery showers also, with some further flooding in places, especially on the east coast during the early hours at the time of the high tides. Lowest temperatures will range 3 to 5 degrees.


Tomorrow

Very showery tomorrow, Wednesday, with some heavy, prolonged and sometimes thundery showers at times. Some further local spot flooding is possible. Strong West to Northwest winds will affect the West and South of the country but winds will be lighter elsewhere. Top temperatures of 6 to 9 C.

Outlook

General : Cold, changeable weather, with occasional showers and frosty conditions at night. But late Friday, Friday night and Saturday will be extremely windy and very wet too, with a risk of some stormy weather developing.
Cold, windy and showery for much of Wednesday night, with some hail at times. Lowest temperatures zero to plus 3 C., with some frost around dawn.
Thursday will be a cool, breezy day with fresh and gusty southwest winds. Some bright or sunny spells, but some rain hail or sleet showers at times too. Top temperatures of just 4 to 7 C. Cold overnight with slack winds and just isolated wintry showers. Lowest temperatures -1 to plus 2 C., with a sharp frost and some icy patches.
Friday will start off cool and bright, with sunny spells and just a few showers. Highs of 5 to 7 C., are expected. But present indications suggest that an extremely windy and very wet period of weather, will sweep in off the Atlantic late in the day and overnight. Saturday looks like being an extremely windy, blustery day, with further rain or showers too, heavy at times. Some severe gusts are possible and there is an ongoing risk of some flooding in this period.
Sunday looks like being a cold, windy day, with occasional showers, a few possibly wintry.

sunbabe08

college of commerce and school of music closing at 6 and half 6 this evening.


wind also picking up now. it's very cold as well

Villain

Oh dear I expect a LOT of flooding tonight and tomorrow

Mr Cumulonimbus

Here it comes.........

maquiladora

One bit of good news for Cork is that it looks like the strongest winds will have moved to the east/southeast coasts by the time of high tide in Cork city tonight.

Oscar Bravo

Although it wont be extremely windy in the west it will certainly be unusual to have winds that strong from the E/SE.

Oscar Bravo

And winds now beginning to pick up in the south ,Sherkin and Kinsale with a gust of 39kts and Valentia 35kts.

red_bairn

maquiladora wrote: »

One bit of good news for Cork is that it looks like the strongest winds will have moved to the east/southeast coasts by the time of high tide in Cork city tonight.

Are those 120 KM/h gusts over Greystones?

Poochie05

Wind just beginning to pick up here in Wexford and a very squally shower just passed by. Sun is back out now though.

Cantona's Collars

red_bairn wrote: »

Are those 120 KM/h gusts over Greystones?

Make sure not to leave the bins out.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Continues to be a beautiful day here in Dundalk. One of the most cloudless days I've seen in weeks!

earthwormjack

Do you think this one will be not as bad as the last few storms we've had - for the southeast?