Depressing Dublin House prices

Theboinkmaster

spockety wrote: »

Check out 6 The Lawn, Woodpark, Balinteer.

Sold in 2012 for 315k.
Went back on the market in august 2013 unmodified, and is apparently sale agreed now at 420k.

That is the 30% increase you see referenced in the media.

It's also quite insane. Fair play to the flipper, very well played.

I know the area very well and that is absolutely insane, not worth more than 300k IMO.

Fair play to the flipper indeed and what an idiot who paid 420k for that.

The_Conductor

Piriz wrote: »

we are discussing the current economic forces in the housing market in Dublin not whether i bought a house or use google imaging to compare houses that were sold years ago on one street... your a time waster... your input is brutal!

Regardless of how justified you feel- do not attack other posters. Warning.

The_Conductor

The Spider wrote: »

As opposed to your non existent input, the prices were used to show the difference in price from 2010 - 2011in the same street, for what it worth another one sold for 320 in 2012

I've already warned you once today- so this time its an infraction.

Cop on.

Heisenberg1

Oral Surgeon wrote: »

Yes but on a 85% mortgage, Joe needs to front €30K deposit, €2K stamp and €2-3K legal fees. You'd be a long time saving that with €600/month.

Why would he need 15% deposit I bought at the start of 2012 and I only needed 8% for a deposit on a similar amount borrowed. So that would be roughly around 20k mark that's needed. Saving the €600 you would have that figure in 3 years. That's money you will never see renting.

Heisenberg1

Bayview in Ballybrack is a prime example of what I have been saying at its lowest you could have got a 3 bed semi for under 200k. But I know of a couple who are paying €1450 a month for the same type house around the corner.

Oral Surgeon

Heisenberg1 wrote: »

Why would he need 15% deposit I bought at the start of 2012 and I only needed 8% for a deposit on a similar amount borrowed. So that would be roughly around 20k mark that's needed. Saving the €600 you would have that figure in 3 years. That's money you will never see renting.

Good luck getting 92% today, 85% is more realistic.
You're missing the point, a lot of people will find it difficult to save the €30k deposit in advance of the mortgage. Your calculations have the fictitious couple saving €600 per month as they are paying a €1000 per month on a mortgage!!
The reality is that they would never get the chance to pay that 1000 and save that 600 per month as the banks require the €30k deposit before the mortgage is issued. In the meantime, they are renting for €1600/month and have little or nothing to save.....

Heisenberg1

Oral Surgeon wrote: »

Good luck getting 92% today, 85% is more realistic.
You're missing the point, a lot of people will find it difficult to save the €30k deposit in advance of the mortgage. Your calculations have the fictitious couple saving €600 per month as they are paying a €1000 per month on a mortgage!!
The reality is that they would never get the chance to pay that 1000 and save that 600 per month as the banks require the €30k deposit before the mortgage is issued. In the meantime, they are renting for €1600/month and have little or nothing to save.....

We'll I got it as did many people I know did at the time. My point was that people are paying more now for rent. Than if they would have bought at the lowest point of the market. Assuming they were in a position to buy.

Cuddlesworth

Heisenberg1 wrote: »

I disagree with that for example. If Joe bought a house when they where at there lowest price and the mortgage is lets say 200k over 30 years is around €1000pm. His neighbour bob who only started to rent is now pay €1600 pm the extra €600 a month would more than cover the additional expenses you have outlined. As I said in an earlier post I have friends that are in this situation. Hardly apples and oranges.

I've thought on the same lines that you have, as a first time buyer.

I'm 29 years old in a 5 year relationship with a decent sum of money saved. I also earn 50k+ a year in a stable profession. I pay 1150 a month in rent for a large 3 bed apartment. I've lived in practically every part of this city in my life, I'm aware of the areas I would like and the areas I would settle for.

So its really easy to look at the 1150 and say I'm paying somebody elses mortgage.

But you know what else. I only pay 1150 a month. I don't pay management fees. Or property taxes. I don't have to pay to get the roofer out to fix the leak that has cropped up. Or had to replace the oven when it broke. And when my lease is up, I can move away from the asshole neighbor that has loud parties every weekend, who leaves his poor dog in the garden all day barking at shadows because he is bored out of his mind.

To me, if I get a mortgage now I face the following issues.

Any bank in Ireland that gives me a mortgage is facing a second wave of looming bankruptcy. Their loan books are shattered, the bailout only propped them up. Sooner or later somebody is going to audit them and the house of cards will fall. You don't need to be a genius to see that. I know of too many people who bought a house in Navan for 300K. Coupled with the huge numbers of trackers on hand, any variable rate is not going to stay where it is. The only reason they have stayed where they are is the cheap loans they are getting.

Then I look at my actual payments. Yeah, I could get a mortgage for roughly the same cost as my current rent. But I don't think it will stay at that, if interest rates rose I wouldn't be looking at 1k payments. I could be looking at up to 2k payments. I don't want to be paying 50%+ of my wages to live in a downtrodden area. Especially when I earn a good wage. And like new entrants to the public sector, all I will be doing is paying somebody elses mortgage if I do chose to get one.

So now I'm looking at leaving. It just makes more sense to me.

To fix this issue we as a country need to start to increase the property tax to a significant % of the value of a house. Not only will this bring us a stable source in revenue, but it will create a system that purposely utilizes our housing stock to its best. Plus any attempted bubble will be self defeating. It won't stop SCD being any more desirable though but it will open more housing stock. I personally know of far to many 4-6 bedroom houses with a single occupant.

Victor

A large number of posts have been moved here: Murder rates and house prices (split from Depressing Dublin House prices)

Let me know if any more need to be moved.

Moderator

McDook

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

I've thought on the same lines that you have, as a first time buyer.

I'm 29 years old in a 5 year relationship with a decent sum of money saved. I also earn 50k+ a year in a stable profession. I pay 1150 a month in rent for a large 3 bed apartment. I've lived in practically every part of this city in my life, I'm aware of the areas I would like and the areas I would settle for.

So its really easy to look at the 1150 and say I'm paying somebody elses mortgage.

But you know what else. I only pay 1150 a month. I don't pay management fees. Or property taxes. I don't have to pay to get the roofer out to fix the leak that has cropped up. Or had to replace the oven when it broke. And when my lease is up, I can move away from the asshole neighbor that has loud parties every weekend, who leaves his poor dog in the garden all day barking at shadows because he is bored out of his mind.

To me, if I get a mortgage now I face the following issues.

Any bank in Ireland that gives me a mortgage is facing a second wave of looming bankruptcy. Their loan books are shattered, the bailout only propped them up. Sooner or later somebody is going to audit them and the house of cards will fall. You don't need to be a genius to see that. I know of too many people who bought a house in Navan for 300K. Coupled with the huge numbers of trackers on hand, any variable rate is not going to stay where it is. The only reason they have stayed where they are is the cheap loans they are getting.

Then I look at my actual payments. Yeah, I could get a mortgage for roughly the same cost as my current rent. But I don't think it will stay at that, if interest rates rose I wouldn't be looking at 1k payments. I could be looking at up to 2k payments. I don't want to be paying 50%+ of my wages to live in a downtrodden area. Especially when I earn a good wage. And like new entrants to the public sector, all I will be doing is paying somebody elses mortgage if I do chose to get one.

So now I'm looking at leaving. It just makes more sense to me.

To fix this issue we as a country need to start to increase the property tax to a significant % of the value of a house. Not only will this bring us a stable source in revenue, but it will create a system that purposely utilizes our housing stock to its best. Plus any attempted bubble will be self defeating. It won't stop SCD being any more desirable though but it will open more housing stock. I personally know of far to many 4-6 bedroom houses with a single occupant.

My opinion is that the property tax is going to end up more like the uk one.
The person who lives in the place pays it and not the owner.
At the moment even the renter pays it now, but doesnt event realize it.
How much have rents gone up in the last few years in Dublin? Im guessing theres enough for the property tax in there.
And then when renters do have to pay it it themselves, their rent wont go down, they will just have an extra tax to pay to revenue, on top of their rent.

We sold our house in 2005 when we moved to the UK for work.
We moved back in 2008 and have been renting ever since, which was fine most of the time.
Sick of renting now. Young family, schools, stability etc have all become a need that just wasnt there before. Nesting time. Life changes, the older we get. And rent is just going up and up for us.

The smaller the space you need the better off you are renting.
If you only need a room in a house share, then you are way better off renting than buying. If you need a 1 bed apartment, better off renting. If you need 3 bedrooms and a garden and want stability in where you live then renting might be a false economy. There comes a time when you want to put down roots for the sake of yourself and your family.

So we are approved for 92% mortgage and are taking our time about it (we puled out of one sale we were interested in). There are some nice houses we like, but they are definitely getting more expensive.

anncoates

handlemaster wrote: »

Please stop mentioning SCD or south Dublin etc its nauseating at this stage. We all know prices were and are higher there.

Its actually a bubble thread. Pages of agonized hairsplitting about a single area..

Supercell

Heisenberg1 wrote: »

Bayview in Ballybrack is a prime example of what I have been saying at its lowest you could have got a 3 bed semi for under 200k. But I know of a couple who are paying €1450 a month for the same type house around the corner.

Its in Killiney, but that aside.
We looked at some houses in Bayview in late 2011 but in the end bought in Loughlinstown.
We almost closed on a house in Bayview for 220k. Looking at the property register it looks like the exact same houses are now fetching north of 300k.

We also were sale agreed in a house on Ballinteer but decided against it because the garden was too small. The agreed price was €247k, exact same houses on that road now are asking €375+

Houses similar to the one we bought in Loughlinstown are only going for about 20-40k more then when we bought which is a little bit of a sickner to be honest (we spent about 25k doing it up since buying), but I suppose we are in a better position that a lot of people that bought in the boom (although we dont have a tracker to soften the blow).

McDook

anncoates wrote: »

Its actually a bubble thread. Pages of agonized hairsplitting about a single area..

Its actually the bears who are trying their best to try to say that house price rises are confined to SCD. Ive been looking far and wide and they arent just confined to scd to be fair.

handlemaster

Mac Dook ... you do know bears sell ??

McDook

handlemaster wrote: »

Mac Dook ... you do know bears sell ??

Im talking about the bears in this thread. You know the ones im talking about.
The ones who are terrified at any mention of property prices going north that they will even quote the indo when there is a story backing their view up.
Its almost like they believe they can influence the market by talking it down or trying to convince people there is a bubble.
They are the one trying to point at only scd prices going up. Trying to deflect the fact that all of dublin prices are going up.

handlemaster

Mcdook. Just like the boom years always the people with blinkers. Prices have moved up alright in Dublin. Wishing for lower prices is just that. I think the true bottom was 2012. Prices will bounce along for a number of years to come

The_Conductor

All of Dublin prices- and indeed quite a large swathe of Kildare and Meath- are going up. It why several developments in the greater Dublin hinterland, which had been mothballed, have been opened again and building recommenced. The rate of increase has been falling month on month- consistently for the last 8 months though- and at the current rate of arrest in prices- a plateau will form by March/April- unless there is some reason for sentiment and/or availablility of cold hard cash, to change.

The rest of the country (outside of the Pale) including the major cities, are continuing to fall- with the rate of fall lowest in Cork/Galway/Clare and a few other interesting spots.

Are Dublin house price increases sustainable- or indeed anything other than a flash in the pan? Who knows? There isn't a functional property market- and the majority of property in the area being sold (@ 45%) is executor sales- hardly encouraging.

I genuinely don't think anyone can call it a bubble- or not a bubble- there isn't a functional market, and there are far too many unknowns out there to call it one way or the other. Are prices in the greater Dublin area likely to dive again? Once again- who knows. There is a residual level of inherent demand- that will probably put a floor on the market below which prices won't fall, come what may. Whether this interest can back up their intent with cash, when the push comes to a shove, once again, who knows......

Personally- if I had cash to invest- I couldn't justify investing in residential property- a firm case could however be made for piling into commercial property in good locations. By good locations- I'd be looking rather fondly at sites around Loughlinstown/Cherrywood- and other places which are relatively undeveloped/under-developed, with good transport links.

What is going to happen to the Irish market? I smell bullsheet with the claims that we need 20,000 units per annum for the Dublin area. We do need more units though- and people are killing each other for low density units in mature areas- thats where the demand is. Unfortunately- there is a limit to the availability of development land- in desireable mature areas- akin to 'none' for the SDCC area (which I'd have to broaden to include all the areas in the council area as far west as the Liffey in Lucan Village).

All suggestions of high density units- are being met with ferocious nimby'ism- and its political suicide to try to persuade people otherwise.

Time will tell- but at the moment- our property market is in a coma, with only vestial signs of life- booming prices in SCD notwithstanding.

On a day like today- driving down Avondale Park Road and looking over Dublin Bay- I can understand why many people are enamoured with the area- but are the prices that property in the area justified? Probably not. Will the prices fall again? Once again- probably not. From all the 131-132 and even 141 cars on the road (and its surprising how many 14 regs there are- despite today only being the 4th of January)- people have squirreled money away- how many, and to what extent- god only knows.

The omens are improving- our economy may still be on life support- but international conditions haven't looked as good in years, and we're a small open economy- so you'd be mad not to be optimistic. However- our future is not in our own control (and even when it was- we were crap at controlling it)- so good conditions or not- we are at the mercy of international economics- and the perception our trading partners have towards us.

The future is unknown- but its more positive than the tunnel with no bright light that we have been in for much of the last 7 years.

If anyone can give a clear reason why we need 20-30-40k new housing units in the country per annum- feel free to fire away- I can't think of any good reason though.

MouseTail

McDook wrote: »

Im talking about the bears in this thread. You know the ones im talking about.
The ones who are terrified at any mention of property prices going north that they will even quote the indo when there is a story backing their view up
.

you would want to have been on here in 2012. The bears on this thread are tame pussycats compared to how they reacted to Bulls then who dared opine the market was turning.

Glenbhoy

McDook wrote: »

My opinion is that the property tax is going to end up more like the uk one.

There is no property tax in the UK, there is council tax which replaced the poll tax (in England and Wales) and rates in NI.

Council tax is not a wealth tax like the property tax and isn't comparable in any way - the rationale behind council tax is that everyone pays there bit towards the services provided by their local council.

The logic behind property tax or any other such wealth tax is redistribution of wealth and the tax can be engineered in such a way as to achieve the goals specified by Cuddlesworth.

You may be right that for now landlords will attempt to pass on the property tax to the tenants, but that will only be achievable as long as demand remains strong. It's not long ago that rentors were able to name their price and landlords were always happy to accommodate good tenants.

McDook

Glenbhoy wrote: »

There is no property tax in the UK, there is council tax which replaced the poll tax (in England and Wales) and rates in NI.

Council tax is not a wealth tax like the property tax and isn't comparable in any way - the rationale behind council tax is that everyone pays there bit towards the services provided by their local council.

The logic behind property tax or any other such wealth tax is redistribution of wealth and the tax can be engineered in such a way as to achieve the goals specified by Cuddlesworth.

You may be right that for now landlords will attempt to pass on the property tax to the tenants, but that will only be achievable as long as demand remains strong. It's not long ago that rentors were able to name their price and landlords were always happy to accommodate good tenants.

It is comparable to property tax.
It is paid on bands which are determined by the value of the property.
The major difference is just that anyone who lives there pays it and not the owner.

I paid it for long enough. Its still a tax on property. And a tax on just living in a property at that.

There, like here, it can hard to find out where exactly the money is going.
A tax is a tax no matter how you try to name it or dress it up.
I heard someone try to say that the USC was not income tax on the radio the other day. The only people who seem to think it isnt are the government.

McDook

MouseTail wrote: »

you would want to have been on here in 2012. The bears on this thread are tame pussycats compared to how they reacted to Bulls then who dared opine the market was turning.

Sometimes people have been longing for something so long that that can just lift their head up and look around.
Bulls were the same not so long ago.

I learned a long time ago that trying to predict any market is dangerous. Its the things that happen that nobody knew about that will get you. Of course the world is full of people who think they saw it coming. Every time a train changes direction suddenly.

spockety

I have to say my experience of the bulls vs bears debate on this forum and others is that the bears tend to try and bring a lot of reasoned argument in and look to facts to try and call or question the market. Most bulls tend to be arrogant gleeful aggressives who distort and twist bear arguments and try to make them look like some sort of kooks.

Not all of course.

MCD.

So... I just bought a house in South Dublin for 385,000 with an 88% mortgage.

Two incomes (approaching 80k a year total).

The house is a 3 bed semi.

Purchased as a first family home. If we need to sell it in 10 years wed like to get more for it but its not bought as an investment as such.

At this stage if it went arse over tits the most we would lose on it would be 10% which is our deposit.

Did I do a good thing or not?

Glenbhoy

MCD. wrote: »

So... I just bought a house in South Dublin for 385,000 with an 88% mortgage.

Two incomes (approaching 80k a year total).

The house is a 3 bed semi.

Purchased as a first family home. If we need to sell it in 10 years wed like to get more for it but its not bought as an investment as such.

At this stage if it went arse over tits the most we would lose on it would be 10% which is our deposit.

Did I do a good thing or not?

If you feel it will suit your needs for the forseeable future (how long is that anyway), then yeah, you should be okay.

Many of us may feel it's overpriced, but if you're happy with the repayments, then, who are we to argue.

Best of luck.

gaius c

MCD. wrote: »

So... I just bought a house in South Dublin for 385,000 with an 88% mortgage.

Two incomes (approaching 80k a year total).

The house is a 3 bed semi.

Purchased as a first family home. If we need to sell it in 10 years wed like to get more for it but its not bought as an investment as such.

At this stage if it went arse over tits the most we would lose on it would be 10% which is our deposit.

Did I do a good thing or not?

Erm...you could lose a good bit more than that if the sale price of the house falls short of the loan amount because you're liable for the full loan. You're fine with 88% LTV for the moment but if things go "arse over tits" as you say, 4-5 times salary isn't really where I'd like to be.

What are the monthly repayments if you don't mind me asking?

MCD.

gaius c wrote: »

Erm...you could lose a good bit more than that if the sale price of the house falls short of the loan amount because you're liable for the full loan. You're fine with 88% LTV for the moment but if things go "arse over tits" as you say, 4-5 times salary isn't really where I'd like to be.

What are the monthly repayments if you don't mind me asking?

1525 a month.

I don't envisage the a sale price falling too far below the loan amount of 340k. Obviously anything is possible but taking a look at the Property Price Register the lowest a similar property went for in the last number of years was less than what we played but by no means less than 340k.

Naturally I am worried as it as a large commitment. We have done the math and after repaymemts, bills and groceries are accounted for we are left with just under 1400 a month.

In terms of motivation, we are both in our mid twenties at the start of our careers. The hope being that our salaries will increase over the life of the mortgage (not a guarantee) and given that we had the deposit we felt now was as good a time as any plus the right house came up. We played a small amount over asking.

As for the location, we are both from south Dublin. One of us preferred to not move too far from home which ruled out a lot of other (probably more affordable areas).

All things considered I am happy with the purchase. But am a bit apprehensive.

ChRoMe

MCD. wrote: »

1525 a month.

I don't envisage the a sale price falling too far below the loan amount of 340k. Obviously anything is possible but taking a look at the Property Price Register the lowest a similar property went for in the last number of years was less than what we played but by no means less than 340k.

Naturally I am worried as it as a large commitment. We have done the math and after repaymemts, bills and groceries are accounted for we are left with just under 1400 a month.

In terms of motivation, we are both in our mid twenties at the start of our careers. The hope being that our salaries will increase over the life of the mortgage (not a guarantee) and given that we had the deposit we felt now was as good a time as any plus the right house came up. We played a small amount over asking.

As for the location, we are both from south Dublin. One of us preferred to not move too far from home which ruled out a lot of other (probably more affordable areas).

All things considered I am happy with the purchase. But am a bit apprehensive.

Is that a variable rate mortgage? By the sounds of things you are going to be squeezed very tightly when interest rates eventually go up.

The_Conductor

I'd echo the above sentiment. Most lenders are offering to fix for 5 years, with a review @ 5 years (which has to be requested by the morgator) and the possibility to fix for another 5 (and so on) at that stage. Current rate on offer for 5 years, varies by lender- but is in or around 5%.

Duckjob

The Spider wrote: »

The bears instead of actually acknowledging the fact that prices are going up in Dublin purely because people are buying them, point to dark forces at work, and a vast conspiracy that prevents them getting their house.

If all the gross market manipulations - no repossessions, Nama, etc were removed, and the market was let function 100% naturally, based on true supply / demand, then I suspect most people would accept the average price in any part of SCD or any area for that matter, whether that average price was 30k or 3 million.

Potatoeman

MCD. wrote: »

1525 a month.

I don't envisage the a sale price falling too far below the loan amount of 340k. Obviously anything is possible but taking a look at the Property Price Register the lowest a similar property went for in the last number of years was less than what we played but by no means less than 340k.

Naturally I am worried as it as a large commitment. We have done the math and after repaymemts, bills and groceries are accounted for we are left with just under 1400 a month.

In terms of motivation, we are both in our mid twenties at the start of our careers. The hope being that our salaries will increase over the life of the mortgage (not a guarantee) and given that we had the deposit we felt now was as good a time as any plus the right house came up. We played a small amount over asking.

As for the location, we are both from south Dublin. One of us preferred to not move too far from home which ruled out a lot of other (probably more affordable areas).

All things considered I am happy with the purchase. But am a bit apprehensive.

Do you want kids? Have you factored their cost into your future or do both of you have to be working to make paymenys?