Depressing Dublin House prices

jon1981 · 03-01-2014 11:35am

Potatoeman wrote: »

This reminds me of just before the colapse of the bubble where anyone questioning the prices and affordability were shrugged off. We really havnt learned anything if we think only 5% of the population can live south of the Liffey.

Again this is not true!! there are loads of places South of the liffey people can live in ! But it's the select areas people are moaning about that most of the population could never live in now, 10 years ago, 50 years ago!!

drumswan · 03-01-2014 11:36am

Potatoeman wrote: »

This reminds me of just before the colapse of the bubble where anyone questioning the prices and affordability were shrugged off. We really havnt learned anything if we think only 5% of the population can live south of the Liffey.

You dont have to buy property to live somewhere. We sure havent learned anything.

Potatoeman · 03-01-2014 11:39am

drumswan wrote: »

You dont have to buy property to live somewhere. We sure havent learned anything.

We have a very bad rental market here. Many people renting are almoat paying mortgage rates at present.

drumswan · 03-01-2014 11:41am

Potatoeman wrote: »

We have a very bad rental market here. Many people renting are almoat paying mortgage rates at present.

Not in the desirable areas of SCD they arent.

Potatoeman · 03-01-2014 11:42am

jon1981 wrote: »

Again this is not true!! there are loads of places South of the liffey people can live in ! But it's the select areas people are moaning about that most of the population could never live in now, 10 years ago, 50 years ago!!

Some areas sure but there are far more than some being mentioned.

jon1981 · 03-01-2014 11:42am

drumswan wrote: »

Not in the desirable areas of SCD they arent.

give me a 20/30 year lease and i'd happily rent

Theboinkmaster · 03-01-2014 12:11pm

jon1981 wrote: »

assuming 50k deposit, 400k is 2k a month roughly over 30 yrs. That's well within reach of of a joint income of 150k.

I disagree - i think that's too much relative to the income, also shouldn't you just buy based on 1 salary for prudence.

Again - houses like these in D14, what did they cost relative to salaries 20 years ago? Are they overpriced?

jon1981 · 03-01-2014 12:16pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I disagree - i think that's too much relative to the income, also shouldn't you just buy based on 1 salary for prudence.

In terms of reducing the risk should one person lose their job , yes that's the ideal but unless the banks enforce such a policy the house prices will never fall to a level that makes this achievable.

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Again - houses like these in D14, what did they cost relative to salaries 20 years ago? Are they overpriced?

Good question, but I would think even with the downturn in the economy there is a far more wealth in the country now than 20+ years ago...?

Heisenberg1 · 03-01-2014 12:31pm

drumswan wrote: »

Not in the desirable areas of SCD they arent.

I can assure you they are paying more than a mortgage to rent in the desirable areas of SCD. I have two friends paying in excess in rent than what it would have cost them to buy these houses when they where at there lowest price.

Potatoeman · 03-01-2014 12:41pm

Heisenberg1 wrote: »

I can assure you they are paying more than a mortgage to rent in the desirable areas of SCD. I have two friends paying in excess in rent than what it would have cost them to buy these houses when they where at there lowest price.

This is the problem that people face when renting. They have little stability and rents are just as if not more likley to increase than mortgages. Your mortgage will decrease once you start paying off capital and at the end of it you own the property.

drumswan · 03-01-2014 12:49pm

Heisenberg1 wrote: »

I can assure you they are paying more than a mortgage to rent in the desirable areas of SCD. I have two friends paying in excess in rent than what it would have cost them to buy these houses when they where at there lowest price.

Whats thats the properties lowest historical price got to do with it? Im talking about now. Asking prices are rising rapidly in these areas.

The Spider · 03-01-2014 12:50pm

jon1981 wrote: »

give me a 20/30 year lease and i'd happily rent

Why would you do that? after paying rent for 30 years you'd have nothing at the end of it, and would be turfed out, if rent is more than a mortgage it makes no sense.

drumswan · 03-01-2014 12:51pm

The Spider wrote: »

Why would you do that? after paying rent for 30 years you'd have nothing at the end of it, and would be turfed out, if rent is more than a mortgage it makes no sense.

It makes sense if its considerably cheaper and has a break clause which allows to tenant to move?

jon1981 · 03-01-2014 12:52pm

The Spider wrote: »

Why would you do that? after paying rent for 30 years you'd have nothing at the end of it, and wuld be turfed out, if rent is more than a mortgage it makes no sense.

It would have be a very good rate, much less than a mortgage allowing you to save in parallel and relocate to somewhere nice (Spain, Thailand...etc. when I retire

)

Theboinkmaster · 03-01-2014 1:01pm

Are we not getting off topic here?

We don't care about crime and comparing areas, that's not what this thread is about.

Fundamentally are house prices in south Dublin (eg D14) overpriced and due to decrease?

Is there a signifcant cash bubble in existence and is due to pop.

With the illustrative example i gave before they seem to be. Average semi D with garage being 10x average professional salary.

jon1981 · 03-01-2014 1:03pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Are we not getting off topic here?

We don't care about crime and comparing areas, that's not what this thread is about.

Fundamentally are house prices in south Dublin (eg D14) overpriced and due to decrease?

Is there a signifcant cash bubble in existence and is due to pop.

With the illustrative example i gave before they seem to be. Average semi D with garage being 10x average professional salary.

What's average

an average Semi D in Crumlin would be a good multiple less

Theboinkmaster · 03-01-2014 1:07pm

jon1981 wrote: »

What's average

an average Semi D in Crumlin would be a good multiple less

Say Dublin 14 as average.

markpb · 03-01-2014 1:09pm

Heisenberg1 wrote: »

I can assure you they are paying more than a mortgage to rent in the desirable areas of SCD. I have two friends paying in excess in rent than what it would have cost them to buy these houses when they where at there lowest price.

Comparing rent only with mortgage repayments is like comparing apples and oranges. You're ignoring purchase costs (stamp duty, solicitors fees, surveyors fees) and ongoing costs (insurance, property tax, repairs, maintenance, capital expenditure) as well as the flexibility that renting offers over purchasing.

jon1981 · 03-01-2014 1:11pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Say Dublin 14 as average.

only looking in Rathfarnham for 3 bed semi d ...

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin-14/semi-detached-house-for-sale-in-rathfarnham?maxprice=300000&minbeds=3

there are options, but this could be argued all day!

Ush1 · 03-01-2014 1:13pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Nobody cares :rolleyes:

Obviously the person engaging in the debate does.

Theboinkmaster · 03-01-2014 1:18pm

jon1981 wrote: »

only looking in Rathfarnham for 3 bed semi d ...

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin-14/semi-detached-house-for-sale-in-rathfarnham?maxprice=300000&minbeds=3

there are options, but this could be argued all day!

I referred to proper areas of Rathfarnham in an earlier post, near the village - stocking lane is not

jon1981 · 03-01-2014 1:21pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I referred to proper areas of Rathfarnham in an earlier post, near the village - stocking lane is not

ah now you're just being picky!

Theboinkmaster · 03-01-2014 1:24pm

jon1981 wrote: »

ah now you're just being picky!

Nobody would consider stocking lane as D14 really, sure it's outside the m50 and literally miles away from the village.

Anyway i can't link any houses as there are none currently up on myhome but in D14 say a 1,200 sq foot 3 bed semi D with garage are going for €450-550k.

Is this too much?

Something link this:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=741652

jon1981 · 03-01-2014 1:26pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Nobody would consider stocking lane as D14 really, sure it's outside the m50 and literally miles away from the village.

Anyway i can't link any houses as there are none currently up on myhome but in D14 say a 1,200 sq foot 3 bed semi D with garage are going for €450-550k.

Is this too much?

yes it is for me, but then prices like that will also keep the young ruffians out...

Potatoeman · 03-01-2014 1:30pm

markpb wrote: »

Comparing rent only with mortgage repayments is like comparing apples and oranges. You're ignoring purchase costs (stamp duty, solicitors fees, surveyors fees) and ongoing costs (insurance, property tax, repairs, maintenance, capital expenditure) as well as the flexibility that renting offers over purchasing.

A mortgage will decrease as you pay off capital and at the end of the term you own it. Rent is perpetual and usually increases overtime.

Theboinkmaster · 03-01-2014 1:30pm

jon1981 wrote: »

yes it is for me, but then prices like that will also keep the young ruffians out...

But that's my point if couples in early 30s on 150k can't afford to live there comfortably then surely they're seriously over-valued.

The house i linked is a good example - I've seen houses like these sell in D14 for €0.5m and they still need another €100k of work. I think that's still madness.

spockety · 03-01-2014 2:01pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

But that's my point if couples in early 30s on 150k can't afford to live there comfortably then surely they're seriously over-valued.

The house i linked is a good example - I've seen houses like these sell in D14 for €0.5m and they still need another €100k of work. I think that's still madness.

It is madness.

Houses on Ballyroan Road and surrounding areas were selling below €300K not so long ago (the typical 3 bed semi with garage as you describe), which is probably their value in a market which isn't rigged. However I would expect damp executor fixer uppers to appear on the market for 450K-500K asking, such is the current madness.

And who knows, someone with a lot of money may actually pay that.

I'm not sure that it's couples on 150K between them that are going in for them though. I think the 150K couple is competing with the 75K couple who happen to have a €200-€300K stashed towards it from inheritance, savings, bubble-era sale, or something similar. So in fact they end up with a mortgage of about 200K (which is just about their max what with kids etc.).

It's all a bit out of kilter at the moment. The unmistakable key question still remains, is the amount of cash being spent (either outright or part funding) at the moment in line with historical norms, or if not is it sustainable or are we looking at a permanent shift in how the market operates in Dublin?

And again I ask (as earlier in the thread), how do we as a society react to that. Housing should not be treated as any other normal commodity. As a society we should be striving to provide high quality accommodation for families. It's not like we have a shortage of land (in spite of what some people like to spout).

And to anyone who says "this is just capitalism at work". No it is absolutely not. You are wrong. It is the rest of society acting as lender of last resort to failed lines of credit through NAMA, lack of repossessions, bank bailouts, bond holder bailouts, etc. That is not natural market forces, stop believing it.

drumswan · 03-01-2014 2:02pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

If you want to debate which places in Dublin are best to live in start your own thread - this one is about Dublin property prices.

We are discussing how peoples perceptions of areas are feeding into property prices and driving the prices up in those areas seen to be most desirable. If thats OK with you?

The Spider · 03-01-2014 2:09pm

alastair wrote: »

Clearly we don't.

Again - not really. I suspect you're mistaking respectability for affluence. I seem to recall a particularly high profile murder related to the most affluent area in the county only this year.

Assuming you buy into this notion of 'respectable areas'.

Oh come on, everyone buys into the notion of respectable areas, there may have been a murder but what's the percentage versus some of the other areas, like Tallght Crumlin, etc.

The reason prices are rising in particular areas of Dublin is because percentage wise buyers percieve them as respectable.

gaius c · 03-01-2014 2:12pm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Say Butterfield Orchard or Park, Edenbrook Park, Glenbrook Park that whole area near Ballyroan - if you look at those houses they're all average 3 bed semi Ds with a garage and there's thousands of them.

What do you call middle income - €150kpa? I would thought someone on that should be able to buy in this area but the houses are €450k....

Middle income? For Ireland? For a household, somewhere between €40k-50k because that's where the median income is.

keithob wrote: »

do you have kids?

do you really wana settle in this country long term?

have you considered affordable housing options?

For starters, the clawbacks on affordable housing make them extremely unattractive for anybody who needs to move later in life.
Also, I thought we might have gone beyond this belief that folk on pretty normal wages are in need of welfare assistance to buy a house.

Depressing Dublin House prices

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