The Official Off Topic Thread

MyStubbleItches

Jayden Powerful Accident wrote: »

The smart money was to place it 6months ago, before it was confirmed, only risk was a 'void' status.
Now it's only 1/2 those odds for GmG to win.

Guy on the radio earlier mentioned 'either corner to throw in the towel' as the best bet now, circa @5.

Prediction 1: FM R6 or 7. (doubled with TopTug, tommorow).
Prediction 2: GMcG R4/6.

Alt 3rd prediction: 12 rounds of showboating, dancing and light sports entertainment + Ad agencies with a fully booked bonanza slot-fest.

When are you going to realise that nobody cares about your strange inputs and just disappear?

4068ac1elhodqr

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

When are you ... blah blah blah

Sorry missed your prediction, just seen your usual troll commentary, ah well.

4068ac1elhodqr

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I don't agree with this to be honest. Mayweather is 40, it's likely that this is his last mega pay-day. He said himself, this is his last fight, he will also be conscious of his 49-0 record, so he's not going to hold back too much on a loose canon like McGregor, indeed, he might actually be so annoyed as to want to humiliate the man and end the fight quickly.

Maybe, he could dance the 12 rounds if he's that good and win on massive point difference which would be just as good.

Allegedly he's wagered $5m on himself to win. Without those 8oz gloves it would only last 1 round.

Copper_pipe

Betway are currently 2/1 for Mayweather and McGregor not to touch gloves ahead of the fight, with the Irishman failing to touch gloves with five of his last seven opponents.

Fanny Wank

"Smart money" on McGregor?

It's exactly the opposite. Smaller stakes mugs on McGregor, pros on Mayweather

Any of the Vegas books are saying the above. Large numbers of (small) bets on McGregor, but 75%ish of actual cash on Mayweather.

4068ac1elhodqr

Fanny **** wrote: »

"Smart money" on McGregor?

It's exactly the opposite. Smaller stakes mugs on McGregor, pros on Mayweather

Any of the Vegas books are saying the above. Large numbers of (small) bets on McGregor, but 75%ish of actual cash on Mayweather.

Agree to an extent, but if you (smartly) took McG @10 way back in Feb/March, you can assume a profit by backing FM @1.26 this week. Barring a draw, of course.

4068ac1elhodqr

Some data suggests now that most of the bets (frequency) and the stake (value) is with both with FM.
Imagine the books will take a kicking if McG actually wins.



At the end of the day, it's two lads throwing punches at each other, either can drop.
It was a no-brainer choosing between 1.04 or 10.0, 6 months ago.

Fanny Wank

We need aftertime Ansell to open a boards account

slimshady007

On the bare facts you'd have to think Mayweather is the outstanding favourite and anyone into placing big money on long odds-on shots then I'd definitely consider him "value".

You've got the greatest defensive fighter in the game who has beaten all the top boxers who have challenged him. He's just too good at dancing round the ring for McGregor to lay a glove on him. I remember Hatton chasing him round the ring and Mayweather ducking and diving before Hatton eventually ran out of puff.

The one weapon McGregor has is his left hand but Mayweather will be too clever to get caught by it. It's not particularly well disguised either and while MMA fighters have got caught before I'd put that down to been wary of it been a decoy and getting caught by a kick, takedown, etc whereas those distractions won't apply here - all Mayweather will have to watch out for is that left hand.

Another aspect is Mayweather's legacy - there's no way he's genuinely going to risk a 49-0 record if he thinks he'll be beaten. For McGregor I think this is his pinnacle. He's gone from having zilch to earning 80-100m for this one fight which will set him and his family up for life by his ability to talk the greatest boxer of his generation out of retirement. - and good luck to him. I'll be cheering him on in the hope he does pull off the impossible but assume the current odds have been driven by McGregor's hopeful fans and believe the odds from months ago (where Mayweather was around 1/12) will be a truer reflection of the fight.

BumperD

Friend works in bookies laid a 3k bet yesterday on gmg. I suspect not the largest but some people are having a wild punt on an upset.

Copper_pipe

Gigginstown cull list this year includes Dedigout, Net d'Ecosse, Devils Bride, Folsom Blue, Killer Crow, & Captain Von Trappe. All for sale

Peintre Celebre

Can't believe people are getting excited about this sham of a fight.

Anyone wanting a laugh should go on twitter and look at the comments under Paddy power tweets about Mayweather wearing their boxers. Amazing that a group of fans that all act so hard are so sensitive. They come across as such sad and desperate idiots

Peintre Celebre

Just saw there there is an official after hours thread for Mcgregor and mayweather. Then there's some in MMA and Boxing and probably more


Remember that time we weren't allowed talk about the World Cup in the off topic thread :pac: :pac:

Fanny Wank

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Can't believe people are getting excited about this sham of a fight.

A lot of people seem to be getting excited about punting a 1.02 - 1.04 shot at 1.25+

Whether it turns out to be the procession people think, I don't know enough about the sport to comment. Matchbook pod lads reckoned he's a 1/66 shot

Davy received a caution for hitting Kings Dolly in Tramore last week.

http://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Russell-cautioned&prid=184958

Francie Barrett

That Japanese trainer couldn't even buy a winner, yet goes off and wins the Cambridgeshire.

Earendil

Francie Barrett wrote: »

That Japanese trainer couldn't even buy a winner, yet goes off and wins the Cambridgeshire.

Ah don't talk to me, had 3 in it and not a place!

Francie Barrett

Bath 3:10, missed the early price, but 7/1 on Archimedes looks huge, previous course and distance winner in good to firm ground.

Copper_pipe

4 day suspension for Davy Russell

sligeach

Davy Russell: Jockey gets four-day ban for punching horse Kings Dolly

http://www.bbc.com/sport/horse-racing/41159983

Harry Angstrom

The Turf Club have an uncanny habit of perpetually shooting themselves in the foot. The Davy Russell situation should have been dealt with swiftly by issuing him with a ban. Instead they fudge it and now they're back in the headlines again. Bunch of idiots.

The Mig

Davy having the lols on Twitter with former MMA fighter Dan Hardy

https://twitter.com/_Davy_Russel_/status/905135029587759105

https://twitter.com/_Davy_Russel_/status/905141347224612866

bit of a bogey

There was some chat here that there are no good Irish racing sites. Personally I think Irish Racing is top notch. One thing I like but struggle to interpret entirely is the draw bias statistics.

http://www.irishracing.com/draw-analysis?prc=084&prd=6F

The bottom chart is fine but on the top bar chart, how do they determine the No. of expected wins?

Its not based on the odds of the horse drawn because the level stakes value doesn't match up. Is it based on every horse in every race having an equal chance or whats going on?

bit of a bogey

bit of a bogey wrote: »

There was some chat here that there are no good Irish racing sites. Personally I think Irish Racing is top notch. One thing I like but struggle to interpret entirely is the draw bias statistics.

http://www.irishracing.com/draw-analysis?prc=084&prd=6F

The bottom chart is fine but on the top bar chart, how do they determine the No. of expected wins?

Its not based on the odds of the horse drawn because the level stakes value doesn't match up. Is it based on every horse in every race having an equal chance or whats going on?

This was bugging me so I studied it a bit more. The top graph's expected number of wins is based on every horse having an equal chance in the race. e.g. every horse will be expected to win 1 race over 10 races if there were 10 horses running in each race. This has to be it as stall 1, 2 and 3 have the same number of expected winners in the link.

Apologies for posting and answering my own question.

Copper_pipe

https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/former-champion-apprentice-king-switches-to-britain-and-jumping/300277

Gavin "shels"

Peintre Celebre with not one, but two 25/1 winners yesterday at Leopardstown! Glad I bumped into him just a pity myself and herself only got on Hydrangea but both of us already had Zhukova backed when I bumped into him the second time and he mentioned he was on Decorated Knight!

Gamebred

Gavin shels wrote: »

Peintre Celebre with not one, but two 25/1 winners yesterday at Leopardstown! Glad I bumped into him just a pity myself and herself only got on Hydrangea but both of us already had Zhukova backed when I bumped into him the second time and he mentioned he was on Decorated Knight!

Filthy aftertiming nobody cares.

Gavin "shels"

I believe he's selling day passes to accompany him for his next trip to the races... may or may not require additional dinner and drinks afterwards. Lighten up Gamebred!

I see Cooper had a winner this evening for his father. His only ride on the card. His first ride since 2nd September. No booked rides for the rest of the week.

I think if he wants to continue riding he may leave Ireland as he doesnt seem to be wanted/liked here.

Copper_pipe

TheTorment wrote: »

I see Cooper had a winner this evening for his father. His only ride on the card. His first ride since 2nd September. No booked rides for the rest of the week.

I think if he wants to continue riding he may leave Ireland as he doesnt seem to be wanted/liked here.

I was at a Chelt Prefiew night this year and you couldn't help but notice Robbie Mac and Sean Flanagan having a cut off him at any opportunity tbh.