Road deaths on the rise

Iwannahurl

Days 298 wrote: »

The question why an extra 24 people have died is impossible to answer compared to this time last year. Do you have a theory why these 24 people are dead? They are tragic accidents.

[...]

The last death was;

Very little legislation could prevent this. Better lighting? Guard with a hair dryer hidden away? Improved road surfaces if only...

[...]

Maybe if we banned private motor vehicles we could but with all the lovely motorways we built that would be a shame.:pac:

I prefer to use collision or crash, rather than "accident". "Accident" suggests random, unpredictable, unfortunate and unavoidable circumstance, whereas crash or collision is more neutral and allows for the possibility that there are causal factors that can be investigated and addressed.

I don't know why there are 24 more road deaths this year so far compared to the same period in 2012.

Regression to the mean is a possible factor. As you point out, this year's number of fatalities could be a (random) spike in statistical terms, and it's hard to reduce road deaths year on year. If the preceding years were exceptionally good in terms of fatality reductions, then a return to a more 'normal' level of road deaths could be mistaken for something going wrong.

The thing is, if we want to know what is really going on then we need to quantify and compare all the relevant variables over time. Individual cases, or a small number of incidents, don't provide much in the way of generalisable information.

Has anything significant changed this year, with nationwide implications? How much change has there been? What is the relative importance of each variable in terms of contribution to the number of road deaths? Are we seeing any new trends or patterns, or a resurgence of old ones?

http://www.rsa.ie/RSA/Road-Safety/Our-Research/Collision-Statistics/

Incidentally, the chairman of the Road Safety Authority has blamed a reduction in enforcement due to cutbacks, but this is disputed: http://www.thestar.ie/star/gardai-back-gay-byrne-in-road-deaths-criticism-17293/

L1011

Iwannahurl wrote: »

There isn't a lot of evidence to support that.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/10-of-single-vehicle-crashes-are-suicide-bids-250258.html

10% of non-fatal crashes; nobody has done similar analysis on fatal ones.

Iwannahurl

The suicide rate in Ireland significantly increased after the 1970s.

The opposite was the case with road traffic fatalities.

If suicide is a significant contributor to road deaths, and if the suicide rate increases over time, then you would expect the number of road deaths to rise accordingly.

The official figure for the number of suicides was 525 in 2011.

In the same year there were 186 road deaths, 40% of which were single vehicle only. Even if we assume that every one of the single vehicle fatalities was a suicide, which is extremely unlikely, that would still amount to less than 15% of the total number of recorded suicides.

It's also worth bearing in mind that road deaths are accurately recorded, whereas suicide may be under-reported.

SeanW

Iwannahurl wrote: »

I prefer to use collision or crash, rather than "accident". "Accident" suggests random, unpredictable, unfortunate and unavoidable circumstance, whereas crash or collision is ...

Policing language are we now?

Has anything significant changed this year, with nationwide implications? How much change has there been? What is the relative importance of each variable in terms of contribution to the number of road deaths? Are we seeing any new trends or patterns, or a resurgence of old ones?

The most recent thing I can think of that has changed is that the NCT requirements were "enhanced" over the last few years. The last major change (a real issue for me) is that cars over 10 years old now have to be tested annually instead of the standard two years.

This has been part of a trend that regulation and taxes that effects motorists throughout all aspects (licensing, vehicle standards, insurance regulations, engine design, fuel costs) are continulally made more difficult, more expensive and more onerous but these changes have often been referred to as "enhancements," a sort of twist of language that would make George Orwell shiver.

So ... we keep on hearing from certain quarters that regulation on motorists is a great thing and that there can never be enough.

If that were true, and - for example - 10 year old cars were such a horrifying menace that working and lower middle class people who drive them had to have more onerous and expensive regulation dumped on them, then fatal road accidents ... eh sorry "collisions" should have continued to fall.

Iwannahurl

SeanW wrote: »

Policing language are we now?

.

SeanW wrote: »

... these changes have often been referred to as "enhancements," a sort of twist of language that would make George Orwell shiver.

ardmacha

'Onerous' regulations, not drinking and driving, not speeding, having a driving licence, maintaining your car etc do have a role in road safety as some people have to be compelled to do these things.

mydiscworld

Unfortunately it's looking like this won't be a happy xmas for some.

The road deaths figures exceeded those in 2012 about 6 weeks ago and look set now to be higher than even 2011.

Iwannahurl

It certainly looks as if 2013 will be on a par with 2011, which is quite a setback.

SpaceTime

Iwannahurl wrote: »

The suicide rate in Ireland significantly increased after the 1970s.

The opposite was the case with road traffic fatalities.

If suicide is a significant contributor to road deaths, and if the suicide rate increases over time, then you would expect the number of road deaths to rise accordingly.

The official figure for the number of suicides was 525 in 2011.

In the same year there were 186 road deaths, 40% of which were single vehicle only. Even if we assume that every one of the single vehicle fatalities was a suicide, which is extremely unlikely, that would still amount to less than 15% of the total number of recorded suicides.

It's also worth bearing in mind that road deaths are accurately recorded, whereas suicide may be under-reported.

You can be 100% sure that the suicide rate pre 1970s was even less reported as Ireland was about as buttoned up a society as you could possibly imagine and things like suicide were treated with nearly as much shame as someone getting pregnant outside of marriage or divorce.

I wouldn't really believe any stats from that period on issues like suicide.

...

The biggest changes I've seen in terms of road safety have been a sense that rules aren't being enforced. People got a bit scared with penalty points for a while now they're letting their hair down again.

For example, and this is just speaking from what I'm observing, the number of people on their mobiles while driving is way up again where as it had really gone down quite dramatically a couple of years ago.

The big thing that came in about 2 years ago was the mobile speed check vans and I think most people are now not worried about them anymore as they know where they are and haven't gotten penalties.

I'd like to see some serious speed enforcement on rural roads and outer urban roads where you get 'boy racers'.

It needs to be done at night and probably with some kind of super-hardened speed cameras on poles or something.

There's still too much focus on busy N roads and busy urban dual-carriageways and other obvious locations.

From what I can see, the deaths are happening mostly on rural / urban hinterland roads at night and are predominantly single car collisions.

---

I'm not really seeing any maniac driving on N roads or motorways to be perfectly honest or amongst normal drivers in general.

Iwannahurl

The number of road fatalities up to 27th December 2013 has exceeded the total for 2011 (188 versus 186).

Link: http://www.garda.ie/Controller.aspx?Page=10816&Lang=1

Very sad.

Sheldons Brain

Was there not some talk of a EuroRAP report in 2013? This might point out particular roads.

Clonsuttonlad

They should move the resources away from speed vans in safe areas, and put them into proper education on speed in schools

SpaceTime

I think this is going to need a new strategy.

We need stats published showing the location of all of the accidents as I think there's a need for a public and media debate on this.

road_high

SpaceTime wrote: »

I think this is going to need a new strategy.

We need stats published showing the location of all of the accidents as I think there's a need for a public and media debate on this.

Exactly. Look at when, how and where the accidents are happening.
I don't buy this simple "speed kills" propaganda. While inappropriate speed for the road conditions are a factor in many accidents I believe many other factors are at play like road surfaces, poor sight-lines and width. Some junction designs in particular are woeful.
Could be just me but a lot of the fatal accidents now appear to be single vehicle accidents.

Clonsuttonlad

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

They should move the resources away from speed vans in safe areas, and put them into proper education on speed in schools

true, in general the vast majority (not all) drivers drive at a reasonable and appropriate speed for the road conditions ahead.

If the majority of drivers are breaking the limit on a section of road, then the limit is set wrong! Correct use of warning signs for potential hazards (like junctions) would be better, than a blanket speed reduction.

A speed van parked on a dangerous bendy section of road will catch only those who deserve to be caught, but would not be financially viable!

Iwannahurl

road_high wrote: »

I don't buy this simple "speed kills" propaganda.

...


Could be just me but a lot of the fatal accidents now appear to be single vehicle accidents.

...which are often related to speed.

marmurr1916

SpaceTime wrote: »

You can be 100% sure that the suicide rate pre 1970s was even less reported as Ireland was about as buttoned up a society as you could possibly imagine and things like suicide were treated with nearly as much shame as someone getting pregnant outside of marriage or divorce.

I wouldn't really believe any stats from that period on issues like suicide.

Suicide was a criminal offence until the 1980s!

People who attempted to kill themselves but failed were not prosecuted but could potentially have been.

SpaceTime wrote: »

The biggest changes I've seen in terms of road safety have been a sense that rules aren't being enforced. People got a bit scared with penalty points for a while now they're letting their hair down again.

For example, and this is just speaking from what I'm observing, the number of people on their mobiles while driving is way up again where as it had really gone down quite dramatically a couple of years ago.

The big thing that came in about 2 years ago was the mobile speed check vans and I think most people are now not worried about them anymore as they know where they are and haven't gotten penalties.

I'd like to see some serious speed enforcement on rural roads and outer urban roads where you get 'boy racers'.

It needs to be done at night and probably with some kind of super-hardened speed cameras on poles or something.

There's still too much focus on busy N roads and busy urban dual-carriageways and other obvious locations.

From what I can see, the deaths are happening mostly on rural / urban hinterland roads at night and are predominantly single car collisions.

---

I'm not really seeing any maniac driving on N roads or motorways to be perfectly honest or amongst normal drivers in general.

I don't think there's much maniac driving on any roads amongst most drivers.

There is still a cohort of drivers who drive far too fast for road conditions and drive without any sense of courtesy or respect for other road users, including for pedestrians and cyclists.

Cracking down on these drivers with increased penalty points and/or outright bans, along with crack downs on driving while using mobiles or otherwise distracted, should be a priority.

Iwannahurl

Deleted User wrote: »

true, in general the vast majority (not all) drivers drive at a reasonable and appropriate speed for the road conditions ahead.

If the majority of drivers are breaking the limit on a section of road, then the limit is set wrong! Correct use of warning signs for potential hazards (like junctions) would be better, than a blanket speed reduction.

A speed van parked on a dangerous bendy section of road will catch only those who deserve to be caught, but would not be financially viable!

How do you define "reasonable and appropriate speed"?

Can you back up your claims that (a) the "vast majority" of motorists drive at a "reasonable and appropriate speed", and (b) that "if the majority of drivers are breaking the limit on a section of road, then the limit is set wrong"?

Iwannahurl

Iwannahurl wrote: »

How do you define "reasonable and appropriate speed"?

Can you back up your claims that (a) the "vast majority" of motorists drive at a "reasonable and appropriate speed", and (b) that "if the majority of drivers are breaking the limit on a section of road, then the limit is set wrong"?

By the simple fact that the crash rates are so low!

Days 298

Anti-Motorists would dictate any discussion on this topic. This thread has descended into a speed thread quelle surprise. 99% of drivers behave well and drive at reasonable speeds. I can think of two N roads here in Cork where the limit has been raised to 120km/h reflecting the speeds people were driving at. The speed limit lovers will never admit that some limits should be raised.

Try say that the limit on our empty motorways/some N roads should be raised and the will always turn it into an argument. But then again the way they talk the motorists on our roads seem go out of their way to endanger pedestrians, cyclists and other road users and are generally homicidal .

Such that every discussion will revolve around them arguing for more speed enforcement, harsher punishments. Whens the last time a road safety thread discussed learners unaccompanied or fatigue driving? The average joe gets a headache from the usual rhetoric and stops listening.

I want Gaybo and Varadkar to put their money where their mouth is and resit the driving test on live national television. They wont though. I wonder why :rolleyes: All talk.

Middle Man

Well it's ironic that the mass provision of motorways has actually slashed the number of road deaths - that's certainly the case since the M1 near where I live was built. The old N1 was fast becoming a linear graveyard.

Not ironic at all (ironically) the three E's (engineering, Education & Enforcement) all play a part in road safety, it just appears that enforcement is put before education!

Engineering as in better roads is a real no brainer, the only issue is which project identified should have the priority over other equally deserving projects.

mydiscworld

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

Was there not some talk of a EuroRAP report in 2013? This might point out particular roads.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056618782

See post 12

mydiscworld

SpaceTime wrote: »

I think this is going to need a new strategy.

We need stats published showing the location of all of the accidents as I think there's a need for a public and media debate on this.

I have advocated this requirement for some time.

Thread started here last year
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056618782

Iwannahurl

Deleted User wrote: »

By the simple fact that the crash rates are so low!

Crash rates are low on many roads. That doesn't mean that driving faster than the posted limit is "reasonable and appropriate" or that "if the majority of drivers are breaking the limit on a section of road, then the limit is set wrong".

Speeding is commonplace, yet most drivers get home without being killed or injured, without killing or injuring someone else, or even without damaging their vehicle. That only proves, retrospectively, that nothing pass-remarkable happened. It says nothing about the inherent risks of higher speed versus lower speed, at population level.

In any case, who gets to decide what is "reasonable and appropriate"? I know of many urban residential areas where speeding seems to be endemic, and where people are afraid to let their children walk, cycle or play because of the fear of road traffic. On many such roads, eg routes to school, there have been no fatalities or serious injuries in recent years. They are still dangerous and intimidating places, especially for vulnerable road users such as cyclists, pedestrians, children and the elderly.

Speaking of which, another (elderly) pedestrian has been killed, this time in Donegal.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/female-pedestrian-70-loses-life-following-road-traffic-collision-29878058.html

That's 30 pedestrians killed so far, out of a total of 189 road fatalities up to this hour on the last day of the year.

Days 298

Iwannahurl wrote: »

Another (elderly) pedestrian killed, this time in Donegal.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/female-pedestrian-70-loses-life-following-road-traffic-collision-29878058.html

That's 30 pedestrians killed so far, out of a total of 189 road fatalities up to this hour on the last day of the year.

Very sad. RIP.

Very rural area. We really need to widen roads and include hard shoulders for pedestrians. We need to widen some existing paths. I think that rather than include cycling lanes on the road. Widen the footpath.

Edit:Satellite is after, road view is before

Heres an example in Cork. Works really well. Wide footpath for joggers, walkers and cyclists and works well for safety as they keep away from the road and the chances of an accident are low.

We lack investment in rural areas. Scary walking on rural roads at night. I wouldnt mind a levy on motor tax or fuel if it was ring fenced for vital improvements. People expected the LPT to o towards things ike this but no

Ditches were not cut back in some of the not so rural areas in Cork this summer I noticed. Seriously educing the visibility and width of already narrow boreens making pedestrians harder to see. Its a joke. Cut backs like these are going to cost lives if not already.

Investment would save more lives.

Edit edit: Slow down Tommy your editing is tooo fasht.

Again with residential areas, speed ramps and footpath widening work the treat. Lack of investment. I survived my childhood with the boyracer epidemic roads are even safer since then. Those parents are overreacting unless the children lack road sense. Also we need more areas for children to congregate than near roads.

Iwannahurl

Days 298 wrote: »

Very rural area. We really need to widen roads and include hard shoulders for pedestrians. We need to widen some existing paths. I think that rather than include cycling lanes on the road. Widen the footpath.
http://i.imgur.com/Vm79z3g.png
Edit:Satellite is after, road view is before

Heres an example in Cork. Works really well. Wide footpath for joggers, walkers and cyclists and works well for safety as they keep away from the road and the chances of an accident are low.

Not very rural. Lots of houses in the vicinity.

Can you provide a link (eg StreetView) to the location in Cork that you mentioned?

mydiscworld

The Road Safety Authority have published a


Provisional Review of Road Crashes 2013

http://rsa.ie/Documents/Road%20Safety/Crash%20Stats/Provisional%20Review%20of%20Road%20Crash%202013.pdf

SeanW

Iwannahurl wrote: »

Crash rates are low on many roads. That doesn't mean that driving faster than the posted limit is "reasonable and appropriate" or that "if the majority of drivers are breaking the limit on a section of road, then the limit is set wrong".

You are, of course, partly correct. It is possible that motorists can exceed the speed limit out of recklessness.

However, to assume that it is not possible for a speed limit to be exceeded because it is inappropriately low to the prevailing conditions, requires a level of ignorance, arrogance and intellectual blindness that is absolutely astounding. Would you not agree?

Speeding is commonplace, yet most drivers get home without being killed or injured, without killing or injuring someone else, or even without damaging their vehicle. That only proves, retrospectively, that nothing pass-remarkable happened. It says nothing about the inherent risks of higher speed versus lower speed, at population level.

So ... the vast, vast majority of journies involving speed excess to the limits, by your own admission, happen in perfect safety, yet it says absolutely "nothing" about the inherent risk of speed?

In any case, who gets to decide what is "reasonable and appropriate"? I know of many urban residential areas where speeding seems to be endemic, and where people are afraid to let their children walk, cycle or play because of the fear of road traffic. On many such roads, eg routes to school, there have been no fatalities or serious injuries in recent years. They are still dangerous and intimidating places, especially for vulnerable road users such as cyclists, pedestrians, children and the elderly.

Wonderful. Please explain what this has to do with cyclists and pedestrians that dont exist? Say, grade separated dual carriageways after ~11PM?

That's 30 pedestrians killed so far, out of a total of 189 road fatalities up to this hour on the last day of the year.

Only when pedestrians and cyclists are considered, there have been two less fatalities 2013 vs 2012. Provisional Statistic for 2013 from the RSA.

Carawaystick

Has anyone done a rolling year analysis on the deaths to see where the minimum year was, and if there was any correlation to the extreme weather we had last year ( no spring, lots of summer)

There's probably likely a regression to the mean from '12 to '13 also

Have the rsa got anyone ( even a postgraduate student) to crunch numbers and provide detailed analysis for us and uncle Gay?

When the wrc came here, the drivers were taken aback with how they had no tyres suitable for bad wet irish roads. Irish drivers get used to bad irish roads, but with less maintenance I'd say this would have some effect.