The Football Tips Thread V

magherakid

Exeter v Burton
BTTS 5/6

Exeter so far all 9 home league games seen both teams score, Burton have 1 clean sheet in 10 away league games.

Torquay v Barnet
BTTS 3/5

Torquay have scored in 10/11 home league matches, Barnet have scored in all 12 away league matches. Last match between these 2 seen both teams score.

magherakid

magherakid wrote: »

Exeter v Burton
BTTS 5/6

Exeter so far all 9 home league games seen both teams score, Burton have 1 clean sheet in 10 away league games.

Torquay v Barnet
BTTS 3/5

Torquay have scored in 10/11 home league matches, Barnet have scored in all 12 away league matches. Last match between these 2 seen both teams score.

both winners

Dio On The Doubles

Some of the youth champs league today is set up for goals.

http://www.uefa.com/uefayouthleague/news/newsid=2191427.html

Some extracts

Group B
Liverpool FC (9) v FC Basel 1893 (12) - Tuesday
Real Madrid CF (9) v PFC Ludogorets Razgrad (0) - Tuesday

• Basel will win the group if they avoid defeat by Liverpool.

• If Basel, Liverpool and Madrid all finish on 12 points, Madrid would definitely qualify as they have a positive goal difference in the matches between the three sides. Therefore Madrid are assured progress with a win.

• Liverpool will be through if they defeat Basel by a margin of two goals of more.

• Ludogorets are out.

In the case of the Gala Arsenal game (which has just gone in play) below its worth noting that Gala have been very strong at home while really bad away. They also score a huge amount of their goals in the second half .. 78% to be exact. Arsenal score 58% of their goals in the second half.

In the meeting in London it was 0-0 till half time and then ended up 5-1.

Crowley is in the starting XI for Arsenal u19 but no Zelalem who will be a miss for them.

Group D
Galatasaray AŞ (6) v Arsenal FC (9) - Tuesday
Borussia Dortmund (3) v RSC Anderlecht (12) - Wednesday

• Anderlecht have won the group.

• Galatasaray need to defeat Arsenal by a margin that will give them the head-to-head advantage on the English side. Arsenal won the first game 5-1 and if they lose exactly 5-1 the Gunners would still go through on overall goal difference.

• Dortmund are out.

Group F
AFC Ajax (11) v APOEL FC (1) - Tuesday
FC Barcelona (8) v Paris Saint-Germain (7) - Tuesday

• Ajax have won the group.

• Holders Barcelona will qualify if they avoid defeat. Paris need to win.

• APOEL cannot qualify.

If Atletico Madrid and Juventus draw tonight they'll both go through! 2/1 the draw....

hefferboi

Monaco v Zenit:

All Monaco's games and all Zenit's, bar 1, have been 0-0 at half time. There's a lot at stake here as whoever wins will go through so I think it will be a cagey affair. Monaco are notoriously defensive this year so this is a plus as well. A safe bet would be Draw at half time @2.00 but my pick is:

0-0 Half Time Result
@2.50

hefferboi

hefferboi wrote: »

Monaco v Zenit:

All Monaco's games and all Zenit's, bar 1, have been 0-0 at half time. There's a lot at stake here as whoever wins will go through so I think it will be a cagey affair. Monaco are notoriously defensive this year so this is a plus as well. A safe bet would be Draw at half time @2.00 but my pick is:

0-0 Half Time Result
@2.50

Money in the bank.


Sorry I left it late to put it up.

Lasagna Diarra

Going very big on this double, hoping for the same outcome as with my previous big bet

Qarabag double chance
Under 3.5 in Maghrib Tetouan vs Auckland City
@ 1.48

Qarabag for the reasons posted in the other thread and Inter sending a youth/reserve team: http://www.inter.it/en/news/47090)

and unders in the Auckland game cuz the Oceanian champions are always hard to beat in this competition, last year they narrowly lost 2-1 against another Morrocan team cuz of a last minute goal and they recently drew 0-0 against Uzbekistan who are pretty decent

Shanotheslayer

Everton V Krasnador

Kras are notorious for being tired in Europa in the late stages conceded a tonne of late goals against Lille/Everton/Wolfsberg a long with scoring a couple late ones themselves.

Everton won't be playing a near a full strength team, at least I expect them not to. Considering they have topped the group and play QPR on Monday.

Probably see the likes of Robles/Hibbert/Browning/Atsu/Kone I still expect an Everton win as I feel Kras just wont have the legs.

Will be comparing odds now and before the teams are announced on these bets:

Everton to score over 1.5 Evens
Everton to win over 2.5 11/5


Bets I will backing:

Highest scoring half: 2ND Half 21/20
Goal after 71:59 5/6
Everton to score more goals in 2ND half than 1ST half 7/5




Kras have conceded in the 2nd half:

Away to Lille 63' 1-1

Home to Everton 82' 1-1

Home to Wolfsburg:
Scored 51'
Conceded 64'
Conceded 79'
Scored 86'

Away to Wolfsburg
Scored 72'
Conceded 73'
Conceded 89
Conceded 90+'

Home to Lille:
Conceded 79'


Hopefully these stats help and we get some winners!


EDIT: "Revealed Joel Robles, Christian Atsu, Steven Pienaar, Arouna Kone, Bryan Oviedo, Conor McAleny, Antolin Alcaraz, Tyias Browning and Luke Garbutt will all start along with two unnamed youngsters.
England Under-18 captain Ryan Ledson and fellow 17-year-old Kieran Dowell appear to be the leading contenders, while Martinez is known to also think highly of Liam Walsh, another midfielder."

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Going very big on this double, hoping for the same outcome as with my previous big bet

Qarabag double chance
Under 3.5 in Maghrib Tetouan vs Auckland City
@ 1.48

Qarabag for the reasons posted in the other thread and Inter sending a youth/reserve team: http://www.inter.it/en/news/47090)

and unders in the Auckland game cuz the Oceanian champions are always hard to beat in this competition, last year they narrowly lost 2-1 against another Morrocan team cuz of a last minute goal and they recently drew 0-0 against Uzbekistan who are pretty decent

yessssssssssssssssssssss :D

Shanotheslayer

Utter Scutter. Sorry lads.

ManagerXI

Sunderland v West Ham Betting Preview:

Sunderland host an inform West Ham side who have made their best ever start to a Premier League season with 27 points after 15 games while Sunderland have failed to score in 7 of their last 11 Premier League games and 3 of their last 4 and are currently on a 5 game winless streak and their recent form leaves them just 2 points above the relegation zone.

West Ham have surpassed expectations this season and currently sit 4th in the Premier League, just 1 point behind Manchester United. West Ham have the third best away record in the league this season and all the expectations is that West Ham will continue this run of form against a Sunderland team who have won just 2 from their opening 15 games of the season.

West Ham have all their important players back from injury and Sam Allardyce will have to decide between starting Enner Valencia or Andy Carroll who scored 2 goals in West Hams very impressive victory over Swansea last week who can take advantage of West Hams good wide play to score from crosses and set pieces as West Ham have scored 12 headed goals this season, twice as many as any other Premier League side. Diafra Sakho is expected to start up front for West Ham and he has made a great start to life in the Premier League having scored 7 times in his last 8 Premier League appearances for West Ham while Stewart Downing has been incredible this season now that he is playing at the tip of a midfield diamond and has more Premier League assists this season (6 in 14 apps) than he managed in 65 games during his Liverpool career (5).

Sunderland have been involved in five 0-0 draws this season in the Premier League, more than any other side while there has been 25 goals scored in West Hams 7 away games this season so both teams will come into this game with very different game plans but West Ham have the advantage of having an extremely fast counter attack which is their main advantage when playing away and has resulted in them scoring 14 away goals and if Sunderland try to play an open game then West Ham will have the advantage as Sunderland can be expected to play Johnson and Wickham on the wings and they are not great when tracking back after their attack breaks down and their only defensive strength against West Hams style of play is their huge goalkeeper Pantilimon who at 6ft 8in is the favourite when the ball is sent high into the Sunderland box so we have to see if West Ham go for the pace and trickery of Valencia to counter this as Sunderlands expected center back pairing of Brown and O'Shea are in the twilight of their careers and don't have a hope of keeping up with him.

The midfield battle will be extremely important in this match and with Alex Song providing the steel in West Hams spine he will control the game in the middle of the park and Sunderlands central midfield pairing of Rodwell and Larsson have more of a brute strength approach which will be easily countered by Song and Kouyate in midfield who are backed up by the excellent understanding between the West Ham center back pairing of Tomkins and Reid and I expect Sunderland to go with just Fletcher up front who should be left isolated for the vast majority of the game as Sunderland will have to sit deep to counter West Hams pace while Sunderlands defensive midfielder Cattermole does not have the pace required to deal with West Hams interchangeable attacking players and it should be relatively easy for West Ham to play around him.

Recommended Bet: West Ham To Win Or Draw (Double Chance) - 1.44 Ladbrokes/Coral/SkyBet/Boylesports

Lasagna Diarra

another big bet for me

Bastia DNB @ 1.80
Bastia double chance @ 1.42 (main bet)
Bastia @ 2.85 (small bet)

first time betting on my team Bastia this season. Makélélé proved to be useless as a coach and after his sacking the youth team coach got promoted and he's done a pretty good job so far. We've lost our last 3 games in a row and are now in the relegation zone so this is a must win game.
Our last 3 home games with our new coach were:
- a 2-0 win vs Montpellier - a strong team like Rennes
- a 0-0 draw vs Lyon - one of the most in-form teams atm
- a 2-1 loss vs Evian, very unlucky loss Evian got back into the game thanks to an amazing free kick
our last game was a 1-0 loss away to St Etienne who are very strong at home but we were extremely unlucky to lose, hitting the bar three times and having the ball cleared off the line once

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

another big bet for me

Bastia DNB @ 1.80
Bastia double chance @ 1.42 (main bet)
Bastia @ 2.85 (small bet)

first time betting on my team Bastia this season. Makélélé proved to be useless as a coach and after his sacking the youth team coach got promoted and he's done a pretty good job so far. We've lost our last 3 games in a row and are now in the relegation zone so this is a must win game.
Our last 3 home games with our new coach were:
- a 2-0 win vs Montpellier - a strong team like Rennes
- a 0-0 draw vs Lyon - one of the most in-form teams atm
- a 2-1 loss vs Evian, very unlucky loss Evian got back into the game thanks to an amazing free kick
our last game was a 1-0 loss away to St Etienne who are very strong at home but we were extremely unlucky to lose, hitting the bar three times and having the ball cleared off the line once

Bastia won 2-0 all 3 bets came in!

inforfun

Dutch eredivisie
PSV - Feyenoord
Bet: BTTS > No
Odds: 2,5
Bookie: Paddy Power

Not often i pick a bet on stuff NOT too happen but in this case the odds are too nice.
This match was supposed to be played 10 days ago but PSV had to do some over time the friday before in Estoril so this match was postponed.
And of course bad luck struck Feyenoord in the mean time, Toornstra got injured last sunday.
He has been very important for Feyenoord, scoring goals ( was on a 4 match scoring run before last sunday)

If anyone was going to score for Feyenoord, i think it would have been him.

Anyway, PSV at home or away are 2 different things this season. For whatever reason no one seems to be able to score in Eindhoven apart from EL clubs.
Only NAC managed to score in Eindhoven this season and it was a penalty.
Feyenoord had a very solid defence in September and October, when only Reijka managed to score against them. Last 2 matches wasnt that solid unfortunately and both Excelsior and AZ managed to score.

Now if things are being normal, so no early red cards, i dont think there will be many goals and a 0-0 wouldnt even be too surprising.

Really hopeing for a 1 or 2-0 being brought back to Rotterdam. Would have been convinced that would have happened 10 days ago.

Trimm Trabb

inforfun wrote: »

Dutch eredivisie
PSV - Feyenoord
Bet: BTTS > No
Odds: 2,5
Bookie: Paddy Power

Not often i pick a bet on stuff NOT too happen but in this case the odds are too nice.
This match was supposed to be played 10 days ago but PSV had to do some over time the friday before in Estoril so this match was postponed.
And of course bad luck struck Feyenoord in the mean time, Toornstra got injured last sunday.
He has been very important for Feyenoord, scoring goals ( was on a 4 match scoring run before last sunday)

If anyone was going to score for Feyenoord, i think it would have been him.

Anyway, PSV at home or away are 2 different things this season. For whatever reason no one seems to be able to score in Eindhoven apart from EL clubs.
Only NAC managed to score in Eindhoven this season and it was a penalty.
Feyenoord had a very solid defence in September and October, when only Reijka managed to score against them. Last 2 matches wasnt that solid unfortunately and both Excelsior and AZ managed to score.

Now if things are being normal, so no early red cards, i dont think there will be many goals and a 0-0 wouldnt even be too surprising.

Really hopeing for a 1 or 2-0 being brought back to Rotterdam. Would have been convinced that would have happened 10 days ago.

Thanks - have taken the single on onder 3.5 goals at 8/15 and supplemented a few accums with that selection too.

No goal before the 25th minute at 5/6 could also be worth a look in light of the above info.

inforfun

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

Thanks - have taken the single on onder 3.5 goals at 8/15 and supplemented a few accums with that selection too.

No goal before the 25th minute at 5/6 could also be worth a look in light of the above info.

Yeah well.
Thanks to the ref who didnt see a blatant foul by De Jong who scored for PSV it was done and dusted in 22 mins.

ManagerXI

West Ham v Leicester Betting Stats:

Leicester City are winless in their last 11 Premier League fixtures (L9 D2).

No player has created more goalscoring opportunities than Stewart Downing (50) in the Premier League so far this season.

No side have had a larger spread of goalscorers than West Ham United (12) this season in the Premier League (Chelsea also have 12).

Anything less than a win in this game will ensure Leicester are bottom at Christmas. Only two teams (WBA in 2004 and Sunderland in 2013) have been bottom of the PL at Xmas and avoided relegation.

Mark Noble is likely to be the only absentee for West Ham, with the midfielder struggling with a calf problem.

Andy Carroll and Diafra Sakho got the nod at Sunderland last weekend, though Enner Valencia is waiting in the wings.

Ritchie de Laet is back available for Leicester and could regain his place in the side ahead of Danny Simpson.

Kasper Schmeichel's foot injury will mean an extended run in the Leicester team for summer signing Ben Hamer.

Leicester have lost their last 6 away matches in the Premier League, have now lost four matches in a row and are without a win in 11.

West Ham have won 5 of their last 6 home matches in the Premier League.

Leicester have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 away matches in the Premier League.

ManagerXI

Hull v Swansea Betting Stats:

Swansea City have lost a league-high 16 points from leading positions this season; losing four and drawing two of the 12 PL games that they have held a lead in.

Wilfried Bony has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances - 20 in 2014.

Hull have won just one of their last 15 Premier League games (W1 D7 L7).

Swansea City have picked up just two points in their last six Premier League away games (D2 L4).

Tom Huddlestone (Hull) will serve a 4-match ban after his red card and fifth yellow card of the season against Chelsea.

Michael Dawson (Hull) is a out after tearing his hamstring against Chelsea. He will be out for 3-5 weeks.

Diamé (Hull) will be out until the new year.

Swansea have no injury concerns ahead of the trip to Hull. Lukasz Fabianski returns in goal after missing the loss to Tottenham through suspension.

Hull have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches in the Premier League and have failed to win their last 9 matches in the Premier League.

Swansea have failed to win their last 6 away matches in the Premier League.

ManagerXI

Tottenham v Burnley Betting Stats:

Tottenham have won a league-high eight points from goals scored in the 85th minute or later in the Premier League this season.

Burnley have played the highest proportion of passes long this season in the PL (20.4%).

Emmanuel Adebayor (Tottenham) is unlikely to feature having been injured and then given some time off for personal reasons.

Eric Dier (Tottenham) is doubtful.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 8 of Tottenham's last 9 games in the Premier League.

Burnley have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Premier League.

Burnley have now won 3 and lost only 1 of their last 6 matches.

ManagerXI

Aston Villa v Man Utd Betting Stats:

Aston Villa have won just one of the last 37 Premier League games against Man Utd (W1 D9 L27), including losing the last seven in a row.

Manchester United have scored at least three goals in each of their last five Premier League games against Villa.

Man Utd have won more points from their last six Premier League games than any other side (18).

Aston Villa will be without the suspended Alan Hutton along with Kieran Richardson who begins a 3-match ban following his dismissal against West Brom last time out.

Fabian Delph (Aston Villa) is likely to play after returning from injury considering that Westwood is injured, Richardson suspended and Cleverly ineligible to face his parent club.
Angel Di Maria and Marcos Rojo are close to returning to the Man Utd lineup. Falcao is fit and expected to gain a regular starting place soon.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Man Utd's last 5 games in the Premier League.

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Aston Villa's last 6 games in the Premier League.

Aston Villa have scored the fewest goals in the Premier League this season, failing to score in 8 of their 16 league games, while keeping 5 clean sheets to stay above the relegation zone.

ManagerXI

Liverpool v Arsenal Betting Stats:

Mario Balotelli has had more shots (42; inc. blocked) than any other player yet to score in the Premier League this season.

Only Sergio Aguero (17) has had an involvement (goals or assists) in more Premier League goals than Alexis Sanchez (14) this season.

Alexis Sanchez has scored (7) or assisted (4) 11 of Arsenal's last 17 Premier League goals (65%).

After failing to score with his previous 38 shots this season in the Premier League (inc. blocked), Santi Cazorla has scored 3 goals from his last 7 shots.

Dejan Lovren and Mario Balotelli are both doubts and will face late fitness tests with Daniel Sturridge and Glen Johnson definitely out.

Arsenal will be without Mesut Ozil, Mikel Arteta, Laurent Koscielny, Aaron Ramsey, David Ospina, Abou Diaby, Jack Wilshere, Theo Walcott and Serge Gnabry.

ManagerXI

Hull v Swansea Betting Preview:

Hull (19th) host Swansea (9th) with both teams currently in poor form. Hull have won just 2 games this season with a recent record of W0 D2 L4 while Swansea have won 6 games this season they are in a slump at the moment with a recent record of W1 D2 L4 however this recent form includes losses against Man City, Tottenham and the in form West Ham. In that run of 6 games, except for the game against Man City, Swansea was the better team in all and it was simply bad luck in front of goal that they don't have a much better points tally however this run has provided us with the value for this weekends bet.

Swansea are a formidable team and they play a very exciting brand of football with a front three of Bony, Sigurdsson and Montero who have caused every team they faced problems this season. 17 of Swansea's 21 league goals this season have been either scored or assisted by one of Wilfried Bony or Gylfi Sigurdsson while Jefferson Montero has been getting the best of every right back with his incredible pace since his arrival from Mexico in the summer and Hulls Ahmed El Mohamady, who played at right back in their last game, does not possess the defensive ability to contain him. Wilfried Bony has scored eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances (20 goals in 2014). Swansea have no injury concerns ahead of the trip to Hull. Lukasz Fabianski returns in goal after missing the loss to Tottenham through suspension.

Hull are in freefall at the moment having won just one of their last 15 league and cup games and they are without a win in 9 games in the league since beating Crystal Palace at the beginning of October while scoring just 2 goals in their last 8 games. They will be missing some very important players for this game with Tom Huddlestone serving a 4-match ban after his red card and fifth yellow card of the season against Chelsea and Michael Dawson is a out for 3-5 weeks after tearing his hamstring and he has been the heart of Hulls defence this season while Huddlestone will be a major loss in midfield and Hull will struggle to maintain possession with him out of the side while Mohamed Diame will be unavailable until the new year and his powerful runs forward from midfield were almost unstoppable and forced defences to sit a bit deeper than they might have otherwise. Hull averages the lowest shots-per-game ratio this season, with just 9.2 and they are unlikely to get more than that against Swansea.

While I was tempted by the draw no bet market I will go for the more conservative double chance market as Swansea have failed to win in their last 6 away matches in the Premier League.

Recommended Bet: Swansea To Win or Draw (Double Chance) - 1.44 Coral

mailburner

ManagerXI wrote: »

Aston Villa v Man Utd Betting Stats:

Aston Villa have won just one of the last 37 Premier League games against Man Utd (W1 D9 L27), including losing the last seven in a row.

Manchester United have scored at least three goals in each of their last five Premier League games against Villa.

Man Utd have won more points from their last six Premier League games than any other side (18).

Aston Villa will be without the suspended Alan Hutton along with Kieran Richardson who begins a 3-match ban following his dismissal against West Brom last time out.

Fabian Delph (Aston Villa) is likely to play after returning from injury considering that Westwood is injured, Richardson suspended and Cleverly ineligible to face his parent club.
Angel Di Maria and Marcos Rojo are close to returning to the Man Utd lineup. Falcao is fit and expected to gain a regular starting place soon.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Man Utd's last 5 games in the Premier League.

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Aston Villa's last 6 games in the Premier League.

Aston Villa have scored the fewest goals in the Premier League this season, failing to score in 8 of their 16 league games, while keeping 5 clean sheets to stay above the relegation zone.

Wayne Rooney has scored more Barclays Premier League goals against Aston Villa than he has versus any other opponent (12).

rooney wincast is 19/10 (bwin) (7/5 anytime)

struggling to find a better bet this weekend esp at a decent price

ManagerXI

mailburner wrote: »

Wayne Rooney has scored more Barclays Premier League goals against Aston Villa than he has versus any other opponent (12).

rooney wincast is 19/10 (bwin) (7/5 anytime)

struggling to find a better bet this weekend esp at a decent price

United have won 2 from their 7 away league games so I would keep the stakes low. For every stat to support a bet you can find one to lay it:)

mailburner

ManagerXI wrote: »

United have won 2 from their 7 away league games so I would keep the stakes low. For every stat to support a bet you can find one to lay it:)

Past results are key for me here, villa one of those teams that'll always fail v utd be it down to just a bit of bad luck at times
While I wouldn't be backing utd at 4/6 with my stakes I do think the Rooney
Wincast is very generous at the odds given they usually put a few past villa

Shanotheslayer

mailburner wrote: »

Past results are key for me here, villa one of those teams that'll always fail v utd be it down to just a bit of bad luck at times
While I wouldn't be backing utd at 4/6 with my stakes I do think the Rooney
Wincast is very generous at the odds given they usually put a few past villa

Liking the look of Rooney Wincast myself. Also like the look of some dpubles/Trebles will post tips up here in about 30mins

Shanotheslayer

Southampton V Everton

Southampton injury list:

D Tadic
J Hesketh
J Cork
S Gallagher
J Rodriguez
G Pelle doubtful
S Davies doubtful

Wanyama and Schneiderlin both suspended.

Huge losses for Southampton especially on a bad run of form including losing in the QF away to Sheff Utd.

Everton have been piss poor lately. But with Liverpool playing Arsenal 1 of them has to drop points so Martinez will be looking at this as a chance to catch up.


Everton Win 2/1
Everton DC 4/7

I think we'll concede but with dueMcCarthy back I think it will help the back 4 out a lot.

S.Long AT 7/4


Doubles,Trebles,Accums I think is good value

Main accum

Everton DC 4/7
Utd Win 8/13
West Ham 3/4
Spurs 1/2

5.66/1


Everton Win 2/1
Swansea Win 6/4


Anytime Goalscorers

Eriksen AT 9/4
Sakho AT 5/4
S.Long AT 7/4

Goalscorer one is just more for interest but decent value in those goalscorers.

mailburner

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Southampton V Everton


Anytime Goalscorers

Eriksen AT 9/4
Sakho AT 5/4
S.Long AT 7/4

liking him also but if I can get a price on anytime assist at similiar
odds I'll probably take that

sakho looks very likely also, 6/4 looks a very good price

really liking bwins soccer prices at times

Shanotheslayer

mailburner wrote: »

liking him also but if I can get a price on anytime assist at similiar
odds I'll probably take that

sakho looks very likely also, 6/4 looks a very good price

really liking bwins soccer prices at times

They Bwins prices to? All mine are from Bet365

mailburner

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

They Bwins prices to? All mine are from Bet365

sure are
best on the rooney wincast and sakho at yet almost shortest
on rooney anytime