Would the rest of the UK survive a Scottish exit?

ewan whose army

I can't see England wanting to be stuck with Northern Ireland or Wales to be honest.

Whats worse is that I would potentially have to be stuck with an "English" passport despite the fact that I don't even identify as English I was just born there to Scottish parents.

I wonder what would happen to the North and Wales, I can't see either being viable on their own.

murphaph

Wales is more or less integrated into England. They don't even have a parliament, just an assembly. There would be no compelling reason for Wales to do anything.

Who knows what the effects would be on NI.

Personally I don't see Scotland leaving the union any time soon.

Iwasfrozen

ewan whose army wrote: »

I can't see England wanting to be stuck with Northern Ireland or Wales to be honest.

Whats worse is that I would potentially have to be stuck with an "English" passport despite the fact that I don't even identify as English I was just born there to Scottish parents.

I wonder what would happen to the North and Wales, I can't see either being viable on their own.

Yeah Scotland is going no where and when this referendum is defeated it will kill the independence movement. Don't worry OP you'll die a British citizen!

Broxi_Bear_Eire

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Yeah Scotland is going no where and when this referendum is defeated it will kill the independence movement. Don't worry OP you'll die a British citizen!

While I agree the referendum will be defeated this time. The independence movement won't die it will take a hit and wobble but it won't go away.

Godge

A more pertinent question is whether Scotland would survive a UK exit, especially as North Sea oil revenues run out.

Jawgap

Godge wrote: »

A more pertinent question is whether Scotland would survive a UK exit, especially as North Sea oil revenues run out.

.....plus they'll more than likely have to negotiate EU membership.

Personally, I think a lot Scots favour independence in the aspirational sense, just like a lot of nationalists in NI favour a united Ireland, but when it comes to the practicalities of it too many are pragmatists to vote in favour of it.

I doubt the Scottish independence will disappear - I'd expect them to reflect on the result then return to the campaign, probably looking for 'devo max' or at least much greater fiscal autonomy...........and they'll probably get it, esepcially if the vote is any way close.

COYW

I can't see Scotland exiting the union, in all honesty. I think that the independence movement in Scotland appears to be significant (large enough to challenge the 'No' campaign properly) from the level of media coverage it gets, but they will be comfortably outnumbered when voting times come. The movement won't disappear but it will fall off the front pages for the a decade or so, after the vote.

The 'No' vote is at about 60% at the moment. As people become more clued in regarding the pitfalls of leaving the Union, the 'No' percentage will increase to about 65-70%.

Jawgap wrote: »

Personally, I think a lot Scots favour independence in the aspirational sense, just like a lot of nationalists in NI favour a united Ireland, but when it comes to the practicalities of it too many are pragmatists to vote in favour of it.

NI Nationalists are a smart bunch. They understand the value of their place in the Union. I think N.I. is more bound to the union, at a citizen level than it every has been. Take a look at the city of culture in L'Derry/Derry. Thousands of Nationalists there have been out celebrating that their city as the UK city of culture. That wouldn't have happened ten or fifteen years ago. I think that more an more citizen's in NI will start identifying themselves as Northern Irish over the next few years, i.e. neither British nor Irish but still citizens of the UK.

Iwasfrozen

Broxi_Bear_Eire wrote: »

While I agree the referendum will be defeated this time. The independence movement won't die it will take a hit and wobble but it won't go away.

Ah it will. At least for this generation.

Iwasfrozen

COYW wrote: »

NI Nationalists are a smart bunch. They understand the value of their place in the Union. I think N.I. is more bound to the union, at a citizen level than it every has been. Take a look at the city of culture in L'Derry/Derry. Thousands of Nationalists there have been out celebrating that their city as the UK city of culture. That wouldn't have happened ten or fifteen years ago. I think that more an more citizen's in NI will start identifying themselves as Northern Irish over the next few years, i.e. neither British nor Irish but still citizens of the UK.

I've noticed this growing trend too. There seems to be an erosion of "Irishness" taking place in NI. Or at least a redefinition of what it means to be Irish with more and more people describing themselves as Northern Irish. To be "Irish" is no longer a monolithic culture of nation. Of course SF and hard core nationalists in general will flatly deny what is plain before their face.

MRnotlob606

will england loose money from the north sea oil and gas ?

ewan whose army

Jawgap wrote: »

.....plus they'll more than likely have to negotiate EU membership.

Personally, I think a lot Scots favour independence in the aspirational sense, just like a lot of nationalists in NI favour a united Ireland, but when it comes to the practicalities of it too many are pragmatists to vote in favour of it.

I doubt the Scottish independence will disappear - I'd expect them to reflect on the result then return to the campaign, probably looking for 'devo max' or at least much greater fiscal autonomy...........and they'll probably get it, esepcially if the vote is any way close.

I think the UK as a whole should go Devo Max , with each of the countries having their own parliaments (I would like an English parliament outside of London) with Westminster having UK wide laws on non devolved matters.

So more a federal state

I remember hearing someone saying if you want Scotland to be out of the UK get England to vote to leave the Union, since nationalism is a bigger factor in England than anywhere else.

ewan whose army

MRnotlob606 wrote: »

will england loose money from the north sea oil and gas ?

Nope, it would get split between England and Scotland, since its legally the UK's oil not Scotland's. Also the oil debate has offended alot of people in the Shetlands who are actually against independence and have threatened to not join an independent Scotland.

Iwasfrozen

ewan whose army wrote: »

Nope, it would get split between England and Scotland, since its legally the UK's oil not Scotland's. Also the oil debate has offended alot of people in the Shetlands who are actually against independence and have threatened to not join an independent Scotland.

How will it be split?

djpbarry

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

How will it be split?

It's something of a moot point given that supplies are dwindling.

Onthe3rdDay

The Scots want independence in the romantic sense but I doubt very much they'll vote for it. A lot of the support the SNP have is an anti-Labour vote.

They're not been given the choice of Devo Max at this time, I'd reckon you'd get a huge majority going for that if it were available.

If they don't vote for independence in 2014 that will be the question resolved for another 35 or so years. Some sort of negotiation for Devo Max is likely however, and a few decades of that could mean the eventual independence of Scotland.

Iwasfrozen

djpbarry wrote: »

It's something of a moot point given that supplies are dwindling.

Not really. The money that Scotland will get from the North Sea oil is a key cornerstone of nationalist rhetoric. If it can be shown that Scotland will only get a share of the oil anyway then it defeats that point.

ewan whose army

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

How will it be split?

Not sure, but its the same with things like the National Debt Scotland would have to take a share of that.

Countries that have succeeded from others have had to split resources like that.

ewan whose army

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Not really. The money that Scotland will get from the North Sea oil is a key cornerstone of nationalist rhetoric. If it can be shown that Scotland will only get a share of the oil anyway then it defeats that point.

The North Sea Oil reserves were only a point about 30 years ago, most of it comes from outside the UK now anyway

Iwasfrozen

ewan whose army wrote: »

Not sure, but its the same with things like the National Debt Scotland would have to take a share of that.

Countries that have succeeded from others have had to split resources like that.

Splitting the debt as a % of GDP would really be the only fair thing to do.

Tabnabs

djpbarry wrote: »

It's something of a moot point given that supplies are dwindling.

Supplies have been "dwindling" since they were first tapped in the 60s. The very large area known as 'west of Shetland' is believed to have around 20% of the UKs oil reserves and is only now being explored. Scotland has a very large safety net from oil revenue should they go it alone.

karma_

COYW wrote: »

NI Nationalists are a smart bunch. They understand the value of their place in the Union. I think N.I. is more bound to the union, at a citizen level than it every has been. Take a look at the city of culture in L'Derry/Derry. Thousands of Nationalists there have been out celebrating that their city as the UK city of culture. That wouldn't have happened ten or fifteen years ago. I think that more an more citizen's in NI will start identifying themselves as Northern Irish over the next few years, i.e. neither British nor Irish but still citizens of the UK.

I think you are a little bit off on the whole City of Culture thing. It's seen as a way to boost the City, which has been badly ignored for generations. No one in Derry talks about the 'UK' part, it's just enjoyed as a way to get the spotlight on the city. Yes I'm from Derry.

Iwasfrozen wrote:

I've noticed this growing trend too. There seems to be an erosion of "Irishness" taking place in NI. Or at least a redefinition of what it means to be Irish with more and more people describing themselves as Northern Irish. To be "Irish" is no longer a monolithic culture of nation. Of course SF and hard core nationalists in general will flatly deny what is plain before their face.

Seriously I have not noticed this at all, do you even spend any time in the North? It's well hidden for something that's plain before my face. I've seen the census stats too and the truth is that it could be better argued that it's an erosion of the British identity in the North if anything.

Iwasfrozen

karma_ wrote: »

Seriously I have not noticed this at all, do you even spend any time in the North? It's well hidden for something that's plain before my face. I've seen the census stats too and the truth is that it could be better argued that it's an erosion of the British identity in the North if anything.

Deny the truth and spin the results all you want but at the end of the day you will have to accept the reality of a redefined Northern Irish identity distinct from us southerners.

ewan whose army

karma_ wrote: »

I think you are a little bit off on the whole City of Culture thing. It's seen as a way to boost the City, which has been badly ignored for generations. No one in Derry talks about the 'UK' part, it's just enjoyed as a way to get the spotlight on the city. Yes I'm from Derry.



Seriously I have not noticed this at all, do you even spend any time in the North? It's well hidden for something that's plain before my face. I've seen the census stats too and the truth is that it could be better argued that it's an erosion of the British identity in the North if anything.

Another point is that the rest of the UK doesn't seem to pay much attention to the North, the Unionists are seen as not British or just make the rest of the UK embarrassed to the point of not caring. Those flag riots before Christmas didn't even make the headlines in the main UK press. There is a view of apathy to Northern Ireland in the rest of the UK, I have heard people say that Unionists are just people who don't want to accept they are Irish.

ewan whose army

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Deny the truth and spin the results all you want but at the end of the day you will have to accept the reality of a redefined Northern Irish identity distinct from us southerners.

NI is ruled by Religion, the UK and the Republic are both becoming more Secular as time comes on

karma_

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Deny the truth and spin the results all you want but at the end of the day you will have to accept the reality of a redefined Northern Irish identity distinct from us southerners.

So when I use the very same argument that you used in regards to those figures it's spin and denying facts? Good one.

Been here all my life, spare three years spent abroad and I think my finger is a bit closer to the pulse than yours.

bmaxi

karma_ wrote: »

So when I use the very same argument that you used in regards to those figures it's spin and denying facts? Good one.

Been here all my life, spare three years spent abroad and I think my finger is a bit closer to the pulse than yours.

What the fcuk's this got to do with Scotland seceding from the UK. I'm sure there are plenty of threads where you guys can snipe at each other without turning this into another one.

karma_

bmaxi wrote: »

What the fcuk's this got to do with Scotland seceding from the UK. I'm sure there are plenty of threads where you guys can snipe at each other without turning this into another one.

It's a fair cop guv!

Scofflaw

karma_ wrote: »

It's a fair cop guv!

Others would do well to note and copy! Thread is about Scotland, not NI, and turning it into standard NI trench warfare will be savagely and gleefully punished. Fair warning.

moderately,
Scofflaw

RDM_83 again

The OP's question isn't, will Scotland leave the Union, its what will happen if it does (and IMO there's still at least an outside chance of it happening).

I don't know enough to comment on the financial side of things in terms of its impact on the rest of the UK especially with the uncertanty about the future Scottish currency.

But it would have a huge effect I imagine on the Political system in the UK, suddenly all the old safe Labour seats in Scotland would be gone forever with no chance of return unlike their (possibly temporary) loss to the SNP at present. This would alter the balance of power in Westminster forever and presumably force a redrawing of party lines.
The loss of Labour influence in a UK dominated (even more) by the South East might push Northern England even further into the periphery, I've no idea of the response though considering Northern England rejected a regional assembly in the 2000's (not sure of the details).

I would presume that the impact psychologically would be profound especially if Scotland prospers or at least remains stable, suddenly there would be a real example to point to for the "peripheral areas" of the UK that leaving the English dominated UK doesn't spell doom.

Iwasfrozen

Scofflaw wrote: »

Others would do well to note and copy! Thread is about Scotland, not NI, and turning it into standard NI trench warfare will be savagely and gleefully punished. Fair warning.

moderately,
Scofflaw

The thread is about the survival of the UK given a Scottish breakaway. It has everything to do with NI.

ewan whose army

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

The thread is about the survival of the UK given a Scottish breakaway. It has everything to do with NI.

Well it would but the rest of the UK keeps on forgetting about it

Iwasfrozen

ewan whose army wrote: »

Well it would but the rest of the UK keeps on forgetting about it

Given the event of a Scottish breakaway NI and Wales are all that's left except England itself. And neither of them are capable of being independent nations.

ewan whose army

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Given the event of a Scottish breakaway NI and Wales are all that's left except England itself. And neither of them are capable of being independent nations.

I know, well its debatable if Scotland is capable.

NI is dependent on subsidies from Westminster to keep going. Compare London to Belfast, you can't. Well compare Dublin to Belfast and there is a huge difference, Dublin full of tech companies, Belfast errr ?

NI can't be viable at the moment without the UK, its a fact. Alot of people in the UK don't like this and want to get rid of the North, seriously they sell passport covers without Northern Ireland on them.

Thing is most people don't know what Northern Ireland is like, I am there fairly regularly so I know whats its like.

The fact is England is by a huge margin the most populated part of the UK, it nearly has 9 times the population of Scotland living there!

If you want to end the UK get the English to vote on English independence, they would happily get rid of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Iwasfrozen

ewan whose army wrote: »

I know, well its debatable if Scotland is capable.

NI is dependent on subsidies from Westminster to keep going. Compare London to Belfast, you can't. Well compare Dublin to Belfast and there is a huge difference, Dublin full of tech companies, Belfast errr ?

NI can't be viable at the moment without the UK, its a fact. Alot of people in the UK don't like this and want to get rid of the North, seriously they sell passport covers without Northern Ireland on them.

Thing is most people don't know what Northern Ireland is like, I am there fairly regularly so I know whats its like.

The fact is England is by a huge margin the most populated part of the UK, it nearly has 9 times the population of Scotland living there!

If you want to end the UK get the English to vote on English independence, they would happily get rid of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Ah it is, they have a nice little industrial base in the central belt. They have a very good third level education system over there too.

There's no comparison between Dublin and Belfast, at least not any more.

Where do you see the passport covers without Northern Ireland on them? Surely they're only cheap knockoffs and not official.

What makes you think the English want to destroy the Union?

Fratton Fred

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Ah it is, they have a nice little industrial base in the central belt. They have a very good third level education system over there too.

There's no comparison between Dublin and Belfast, at least not any more.

Where do you see the passport covers without Northern Ireland on them? Surely they're only cheap knockoffs and not official.

What makes you think the English want to destroy the Union?

There was a poll a couple of years ago asking "do you think Scotland should leave the UK?"

In Scotland something like 41% said yes, in England it was about 48%.

ewan whose army

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Ah it is, they have a nice little industrial base in the central belt. They have a very good third level education system over there too.

There's no comparison between Dublin and Belfast, at least not any more.

Where do you see the passport covers without Northern Ireland on them? Surely they're only cheap knockoffs and not official.

What makes you think the English want to destroy the Union?

Well there is no such thing as an official passport cover! They however wouldn't make them if there was no market for it.

djpbarry

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Not really. The money that Scotland will get from the North Sea oil is a key cornerstone of nationalist rhetoric.

Sure, but that's all it is - rhetoric.

djpbarry

Tabnabs wrote: »

Supplies have been "dwindling" since they were first tapped in the 60s.

What I mean is it's passed it's peak. About three quarters of known reserves have been recovered.

Tabnabs wrote: »

The very large area known as 'west of Shetland' is believed to have around 20% of the UKs oil reserves and is only now being explored.

Only now being explored? There's been a pipeline running from developed fields in that region for years?

djpbarry

RDM_83 again wrote: »

I would presume that the impact psychologically would be profound especially if Scotland prospers or at least remains stable, suddenly there would be a real example to point to for the "peripheral areas" of the UK that leaving the English dominated UK doesn't spell doom.

The UK isn't dominated by England. It's dominated by London.

ewan whose army

djpbarry wrote: »

The UK isn't dominated by England. It's dominated by London.

True :-) . Someone mentioned that the whole argument for Scottish independence apply to Northern England, with England having such a big North South divide, all the attention is on London, all the events, all the money goes there.

We are worse off than Scotland being from the north we never got any devolution. (Although we should be given the option)

murphaph

djpbarry wrote: »

The UK isn't dominated by England. It's dominated by London.

I'd say the UK has been every bit as dominated by the Scots for a long time. Scotland has punched above its weight inside the UK for at least a century I'd say. Even today, it's a thorn in the side of the English that Scots MPs can vote on matters affecting England & Wales but not vice versa!

The UK has had 7 Scottish born Prime Ministers.

Iwasfrozen

Fratton Fred wrote: »

There was a poll a couple of years ago asking "do you think Scotland should leave the UK?"

In Scotland something like 41% said yes, in England it was about 48%.

Ah that was one poll. And those things can be skewered any way you want.

ewan whose army wrote: »

Well there is no such thing as an official passport cover! They however wouldn't make them if there was no market for it.

It's just an oversight and full names of countries are unwieldy.

ewan whose army

murphaph wrote: »

I'd say the UK has been every bit as dominated by the Scots for a long time. Scotland has punched above its weight inside the UK for at least a century I'd say. Even today, it's a thorn in the side of the English that Scots MPs can vote on matters affecting England & Wales but not vice versa!

The UK has had 7 Scottish born Prime Ministers.

That would explain why alot of people outside of Scotland want rid of it.

I think no matter what happens the UK may go to a federal model with England (maybe Wales) having their own parliaments.

But England is dominated by London and the South, the North is very left wing, historically very industrial compared to the South which is very right wing to an extent.

djpbarry

murphaph wrote: »

I'd say the UK has been every bit as dominated by the Scots for a long time. Scotland has punched above its weight inside the UK for at least a century I'd say. Even today, it's a thorn in the side of the English that Scots MPs can vote on matters affecting England & Wales but not vice versa!

It doesn't matter where the MPs come from - Westminster panders to London.

ewan whose army

djpbarry wrote: »

It doesn't matter where the MPs come from - Westminster panders to London.

True, look at Gordon Brown, he let the city get away with anything in the early 2000s while he was Chancellor, just because London is dependent on it.

Fratton Fred

ewan whose army wrote: »

True, look at Gordon Brown, he let the city get away with anything in the early 2000s while he was Chancellor, just because London is dependent on it.

The biggest exploiters of Brown's light touch though were based in Edinburgh, growing to the largest bank in the world, swiftly followed by the UK's largest corporate loss.

ewan whose army

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The biggest exploiters of Brown's light touch though were based in Edinburgh, growing to the largest bank in the world, swiftly followed by the UK's largest corporate loss.

Well since Ulster Bank is RBS in all but name I guess it would affect alot of people over here as well. I only moved here last year so I wasn't around for the worst.

Anyway alot of the SNPs Financial Plans were developed by Fred Goodwin !!!!

Fratton Fred

ewan whose army wrote: »

Well since Ulster Bank is RBS in all but name I guess it would affect alot of people over here as well. I only moved here last year so I wasn't around for the worst.

Anyway alot of the SNPs Financial Plans were developed by Fred Goodwin !!!!

Ulsterbank played a significant part in that corporate loss and the losses they made in Ireland were basically underwritten by the UK taxpayer when RBS were bailed out.

Happyman42

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Ah that was one poll. And those things can be skewered any way you want.

But not when they are being carried out by the BBC in NI of course. :rolleyes:

On the main point, the significance of the Scottish referendum is the fact that it is taking place and the discomfort it causes all British unionists. It has and will undermine the more dogmatic adherents to the notion of an unmovable Britishness. It's nothing but a transitory construct in the scheme of things.

djpbarry

Happyman42 wrote: »

It's nothing but a transitory construct in the scheme of things.

As opposed to every other country in the world?

Happyman42

djpbarry wrote: »

As opposed to every other country in the world?

The Scottish Ref. serves to show the dogmatic & belligerent that 'Britishness' is just a construct and is nothing more than a transitory beneificial political alignment. There is nothing immutable about it.
That will be a good and worthwhile excercising of certain minds imo, whatever way the referendum goes.