Rory McIlroy - 4 Time Major Winner

vienne86

rrpc wrote: »

Back to number 2 for Rory and Jason Day now takes over. Rickie is gaining gradually on Bubba.

Position|Name|Points
1|Jason Day|12.6404
2|Rory McIlroy|11.8888
3|Jordan Spieth|11.8569
4|Bubba Watson|8.5527
5|Rickie Fowler|8.0213


It's getting tighter at the top. Any one of the top three wins the Tour Championship and they're number 1.

Nip and tuckat the top now.....way preferable to one player being miles ahead, be it Rory, Tiger or whoever.

abff

rrpc wrote: »

It's getting tighter at the top. Any one of the top three wins the Tour Championship and they're number 1.

I don't think that's correct. Day has opened a bit of daylight at the top of the rankings. By my reckoning, the only way he can lose the number one spot next week is if either Rory or Jordan wins, but even then a top 5 finish will be enough to keep him at number one if Jordan wins and a top 10 or thereabouts will be enough if Rory wins.

The exact finish he would need will depend on how many points are awarded to this week's winner, but it should be somewhere around the 60 mark (last year it was 58).

rrpc

abff wrote: »

I don't think that's correct. Day has opened a bit of daylight at the top of the rankings. By my reckoning, the only way he can lose the number one spot next week is if either Rory or Jordan wins, but even then a top 5 finish will be enough to keep him at number one if Jordan wins and a top 10 or thereabouts will be enough if Rory wins.

The exact finish he would need will depend on how many points are awarded to this week's winner, but it should be somewhere around the 60 mark (last year it was 58).

Please correct me if I'm wrong about this but assuming there are 60 points for winning it, then it's 36 for second, 24 for third and 18 for fourth.

Clearly if Day wins it, he's still number 1. If he comes second, he gets 36/40 = 0.9 which should still be enough even if Rory (60/45=1.33) or Spieth (60/52=1.15) win. He also will drop almost 4 points from two years ago which would make that 0.8. (Rory and Jordan have negligible losses in that regard).

Finishing third makes it a gain of 0.5 (13.14) which is much tighter if either Jordan (13.00) or Rory (13.21) win.

Obviously there are other calculations to be made so this is very raw, but it looks to me that if Rory wins and Jason is third or worse, Rory will take it back. For Jordan to take it back, I think Jason has to finish 4th or worse.

All with the caveat that I may be missing something

abff

Your calculations are broadly correct, but they don't allow for the adjustment that applies to results that are more than 13 weeks old, nor do they allow for the fact that Rory's divisor will increase from 45 to 46 next week.

As a lot of the points Day picked up are within the last three months, the adjustment factor currently has much less impact on him than on the other two. By my reckoning, he will lose approximately 4.07 points, Spieth will lose 7.5 points and Rory will lose 9.66 points.

Taking all the above into account, if Spieth wins and gets 60 points, Day would need to earn 13.1 points, which means he would need to finish no worse than a two way tie for 5th. If Rory wins, Day would need to earn just over 7.4 points, which means finishing no worse than a two way tie for 11th. If the points for the winner are higher or lower than 60, these required finishes would change slightly.

Jayop

The formula for working out the rankings is very good imo. Much better than anything I can think off from another sport.

It probably should be...
1) Day
2) Spieth
3) McIlroy

But it's not far away and that shows a system that works.

Seve OB

Jayop wrote: »

The formula for working out the rankings is very good imo. Much better than anything I can think off from another sport.

It probably should be...
1) Day
2) Spieth
3) McIlroy

But it's not far away and that shows a system that works.

I understand what you mean but you are ranking the top 3 based on form. Longevity has to be accounted for and that's why Rory is no. 2 above speith. In your case you would probably have Ricky above Bubba which again would be fine based on current form, but does not give a true longer term view

Jayop

Seve OB wrote: »

I understand what you mean but you are ranking the top 3 based on form. Longevity has to be accounted for and that's why Rory is no. 2 above speith. In your case you would probably have Ricky above Bubba which again would be fine based on current form, but does not give a true longer term view

Yep, and that's why doing it over three years is much better than looking at it as I did over one season.

Seve OB

Jayop wrote: »

Yep, and that's why doing it over three years is much better than looking at it as I did over one season.

2 years

Jayop

Seve OB wrote: »

2 years

Whoops. :pac:

Montgolfier

What a mistake on the last. Him and his zone are miles apart.

Montgolfier

New girl = poor golf
In an interview tonight he said I want to be the best but I want a life too. He must have been pushed hard as a youngster I guess. Unlike Spieth who growing up in America had it a little easier. Is that a factor? What do you think?

Jayop

I doubt anyone in pro sports from America would have had it easier, golfers as much as anyone. There's a great documentary on Netflix about child golfers and what they go through. Nuts the dedication at such young ages.

RedemptionZ

Jayop wrote: »

I doubt anyone in pro sports from America would have had it easier, golfers as much as anyone. There's a great documentary on Netflix about child golfers and what they go through. Nuts the dedication at such young ages.

http://takimag.com/article/white_men_cant_reach_steve_sailer/print#axzz3mW0JPPAV
This is an interesting article from a website basically written for those pushy parents, in it they talk about Asian American parents trying to raise pro golfers with the 10,000 hour rule after the success of half Asian Tiger woods. They talk about Anthony Kim and how the plan went to **** as he became an adult and his head wasn't at the same level his skill was. I'd say golfers in America have a tougher time if anything, pushy parenting is much more common over there because of the sheer financial incentives of college scholarships, particularly in the Asian community.

The writer goes on a lot of tangents but it's a pretty interesting read.

yipsnomore

Montgolfier wrote: »

New girl = poor golf
In an interview tonight he said I want to be the best but I want a life too. He must have been pushed hard as a youngster I guess. Unlike Spieth who growing up in America had it a little easier. Is that a factor? What do you think?

Not a factor. Putting is his no 1 problem. He's losing strokes to the field not to mind jason day and spieth. I think we'll see a more motivated McIlroy for 2016 and he'll pick up one major at least.

Russman

Montgolfier wrote: »

New girl = poor golf
In an interview tonight he said I want to be the best but I want a life too. He must have been pushed hard as a youngster I guess. Unlike Spieth who growing up in America had it a little easier. Is that a factor? What do you think?

Or he just had a bad tournament......

Seve OB

Montgolfier wrote: »

New girl = poor golf

New girl!!!!

As in the girlfriend he has had for a year now??? :rolleyes:

He putted well on Saturday, but a few mistakes over the first few days cost him and despite all the good golf he played, he just couldn't move up the rankings.

Yesterday, it looked like he just didn't want to be there. We all know how that feels don't we

Keano

And I will go one further and say he looks like someone who cannot wait for the season to be over!

whatawaster

Frustrating year for him.

His injury couldn't have come at a worse time. He would have definitely been in the shakeup at St. Andrew's imo, and also has a good record at Whistling Straits. Unfortunately he went into that one too rusty (still a good showing).

I too think we will see an extremely motivated McIlroy next year. Being only the third best golfer in the world this year won't sit well with him.

He played fantastic at Chambers Bay, if he had putted decent he would have been up there, perhaps won. His game was really in good shape when the injury happened.

ForeRight

He should get rid of his caddy and go back to titleist and he will be fine

yipsnomore

Seve OB wrote: »

New girl!!!!

He putted well on Saturday

Yes but its been the exception this year. Check out the stats on pgatour.com

Seve OB

yipsnomore wrote: »

Yes but its been the exception this year. Check out the stats on pgatour.com

agree, his putting is nowhere near consistently good enough

pistol_75

Seve OB wrote: »

agree, his putting is nowhere near consistently good enough

His short putting is really poor given his status in the game. I find it hard to believe he doesn't spend more time with Stockton. Maybe he is but I doubt it given there is normally news about it when he does. You can almost always see an improvement in his putting when you hear he has been with Stockton that week or the week before.

benny79

I think his putting is and always has been his biggest weakness. But I'd expect a big year in 2016 from him after losing the no 1 spot!.

yipsnomore

pistol_75 wrote: »

His short putting is really poor given his status in the game. I find it hard to believe he doesn't spend more time with Stockton. Maybe he is but I doubt it given there is normally news about it when he does. You can almost always see an improvement in his putting when you hear he has been with Stockton that week or the week before.

The closer McIlroy gets to the green the less fluid he looks. In fairness his short game around the greens is amazing but his long free full swing just doesn't seem to suit his short iron game and he doesn't look like the most 'natural' putter either.

He'd be crazy to change anything though and practicing more putting might backfire on him also. Confidence is what he needs, he looks so uncomfortable over short putts. A case for a mind doctor i think ha ha

rrpc

benny79 wrote: »

I think his putting is and always has been his biggest weakness. But I'd expect a big year in 2016 from him after losing the no 1 spot!.

It's been up and down over the years. But it's never been brilliant:

PGA Tour stats
Year|Putts gained|Strokes gained
2015|-0.069|1.854
2014|0.273|1.993
2013|-0.092|1.077
2012|0.088|2.318
2011|-0.128|1.149
2010|-0.226|0.940
2009|-0.334|0.523


Wobbled either side of the gain line really.

When he was playing his best stuff, it was his approach play that took the pressure off his putting. That's not been so good lately so the pressure on his putting has increased.

If he wants to challenge Spieth and Day, that's where he needs to putt in the work


I'll get me coat...

Dr Devious

Its quite simple really, McIllroy has never been and never will be a good putter. You either have it or you haven't, if he had it would be obvious by now. He'll get a streak going from time to time and thats about it, if it coincides with a big event so be it. Never recall an average putter becoming a really good one, as I said you have or you don't. Lots of guys struggle with some aspect of the game, Westwoods short game, no matter how much work they put in to it, it rarely seems to matter.

HighLine

Haha! What a load of BS.

Dr Devious

So we have different opinions. Who became a good putter as a matter of interest.

HighLine

Dr Devious wrote: »

So we have different opinions. Who became a good putter as a matter of interest.

A difference of opinion is all well and good but for you to come out and say a 4 time major champ with circa 15+ wins to his name was never a good putter and suggest that any wins he does have and may get, is just the luck of a streak coinciding with some big events is just silly IMO.

yipsnomore

Dr Devious wrote: »

Its quite simple really, McIllroy has never been and never will be a good putter. You either have it or you haven't, if he had it would be obvious by now. He'll get a streak going from time to time and thats about it, if it coincides with a big event so be it. Never recall an average putter becoming a really good one, as I said you have or you don't. Lots of guys struggle with some aspect of the game, Westwoods short game, no matter how much work they put in to it, it rarely seems to matter.

Ah cmon thats hilarious. We are talking about the difference between his great 2014 and this year. To say he's not a good putter is way off base. Having some issues certainly.