2014 NFL Draft

Paully D

A 3rd, two 4th's and a 5th really helps the Ravens after the Monroe trade.

The Ravens have had 41 compensatory draft picks since 1994, with the next closest being the Cowboys and Packers on 33.

nerd69

Paully D wrote: »

A 3rd, two 4th's and a 5th really helps the Ravens after the Monroe trade.

The Ravens have had 41 compensatory draft picks since 1994, with the next closest being the Cowboys and Packers on 33.

With the depth in this years draft those picks are Huge I herd one expert say once you get to round 3 you could move the value of most players up a round in any other year

UnitedIrishman

Did a bit of analysis on the 2012 Mock Draft we did and what the biggest moves and drops were - Here are the picks and what their real life outcome was. The forum pick is listed first followed by the outcome -

1 – Colts – AF Pick - Andrew Luck; Picked Andrew Luck.
2 – Redskins – AF Pick – RGIII; Picked RGIII.
3 – Vikings – AF Pick – Matt Khalil; Browns traded up and picked Trent Richardson.
4 – Browns – AF Pick – Trent Richardson; Vikes traded down and picked Matt Khalil.
5 – Buccs – AF Pick – Morris Claiborne; Jags drafted up to pick Justin Blackmon.
6 – Rams – AF Pick – Blackmon; Cowboys traded up to pick Morris Claiborne.
7 - Jags – AF Pick – Riley Reiff; Buccs traded back to 7 to pick Mark Barron.
8 – Miami – AF Pick – Jonathan Martin; Picked Ryan Tannehill.
9 –Panthers – AF Pick – Dre Kirkpatrick; Picked Luke Keuchly.
10 – Bills – AF Pick – Stephon Gilmore; Picked Stephen Gilmore.
11 – Kansas – AF Pick – David DeCastro; Picked Dontari Poe.
12 – Seattle – AF Pick – Michael Floyd; Eagles traded up to pick Fletcher Cox.
13 – Cardinals – AF Pick – Luke Keuchly; Picked Michael Floyd.
14 – Cowboys – AF Pick – Mark Barron; Rams traded back and picked Michael Brockers.
15 – Eagles – AF Pick – Dontari Poe; Seattle traded back and picked Bruce Irvin.
16 – Jets – AF Pick – Melvin Ingram; picked Quinton Coples.
17 – Bengals – AF Pick – Quinton Coples; picked Dre Kirkpatrick.
18 – Chargers – AF Pick – Whitney Mercilus; picked Melvin Ingram.
19 – Bears – AF Pick – Peter Konz; picked Shea McClellin.
20 – Titans – AF Pick – Fletcher Cox; picked Kendall Wright.
21 – Bengals – AF Pick – Janoris Jenkins; Pats traded up and picked Chandler Jones.
22 – Browns – AF Pick – Ryan Tannehill; Picked Brandon (lol) Weeden.
23 – Lions – AF Pick – Cordy Glenn; Picked Riley Reiff.
24 – Steelers – AF Pick – Dont’e Hightower; Picked David DeCastro.
25 – Broncos – AF Pick – Devon Still; Pats traded up and picked Dont’a Hightower.
26 – Texans – AF Pick – Kendall Wright; Picked Whitney Mercilus.
27 – Pats – AF Pick – Nick Perry; Bengals traded back and picked Kevin Zeitler.
28 – Green Bay – AF Pick – Courtney Upshaw; Picked Nick Perry.
29 – Ravens – AF Pick – Stephen Hill; Vikings traded up to select Harrison Smith.
30 – 49ers – AF Pick – Coby Fleener; Picked AJ Jenkins.
31 – Pats – AF Pick – Michael Brockers; Buccs traded up to pick Doug Martin.
32 – Giants – AF Pick – Jerel Worthy; Picked David Wilson.

Biggest positional change (down) in comparison to real draft: Peter Konz from 19 to 55. (36 picks)
Biggest positional change (up) in comparison to real draft: Ryan Tannehill 8 from 22. (14 picks)
Correct picks per team: 5. Luck, RGIII, Khalil, Richardson and Martin (although picked a round later).
Players correctly picked in round 1 by AF Forum – 22.

Overall everyone did pretty well and quite a few of the picks were within a pick or two of their actual outcome.

Stev_o

Sake, i am to blame for that Konz pick

mikemac1

Jaysus, I thought Stephen Hill deserved to go in the 1st round

nerd69

Stev_o wrote: »

Sake, i am to blame for that Konz pick

to be fair i thought he was gona go first to there was massive hype around him

mikemac1 wrote: »

Jaysus, I thought Stephen Hill deserved to go in the 1st round

again i think i had rated early second and a few buddys ripped me for that so i wouldn't be to harsh on yourself



love the 2012 draft class possibly the best in my franchises history

Dublin Red Devil

1. I think you have to go DE. JD Clowney No.1

2. I see the Rams going with an OT. Probably Robinson. Mathews also a possibility

3. The Jags could go one of two ways. WR Watkins or LB Mack.

4. The Browns probably take what the Jags leave behind. They could also take Mathews if Robinson is gone to St. Louis

5. 1st QB of the board. The Raiders take Johnny Football

6. Falcons go either Mathews or Mack, Whoever is left

7. Buccs need a QB, Bridgewater goes to Tampa Bay

8. The Vikings take QB Blake Bortles, In my opinion a steal in this draft.

9. Bills go with LB Anthony Barr

10. The lions need a CB. Best on the board is Justin Gilbert

HigginsJ

Johnny Football worked out in pads today

UnitedIrishman

HigginsJ wrote: »

Johnny Football worked out in pads today

Reports were that he did it to make himself look taller. He said it was because he game is played in pads, so why not workout in them.

According to reports he looked excellent but Pro Days should make up about 2% of what scouts and coaches should be looking at.

Dohnny Jepp

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Reports were that he did it to make himself look taller. He said it was because he game is played in pads, so why not workout in them.

According to reports he looked excellent but Pro Days should make up about 2% of what scouts and coaches should be looking at.

To me, there is nothing to be gained from pro days but a lot to lose. A player won't improve his position with a great pro day but he can really hurt his chances with a bad pro day.

JaMarcusHustle

Not putting too much stock in a pro day, but ignoring the scripted nature of it all, this is an impressive throw from under centre for a guy who's used to shotgun.

Knex*

Watched that gif easily ten times, and I keep watching the footwork. Impressive.

Was it much better than Bridgewater's Pro Day, does anyone know? I heard his was less than impressive.

Paully D

I don't even bother with the pro-days. If they change someones evaluation of a player, what they have watched and reviewed time and time again on tape, then they're doing something completely wrong. As an AFC Scout said at Bortles' pro-day few weeks ago, it should only be around 1% of the evaluation process. I couldn't believe people were dropping Bridgewater on their draft boards due to his pro-day. Surely you've got to trust in what you have seen on the tape and the body of work a player has accumulated over a number of years? Even though it is scripted, players have bad days. Even the best players have bad days. What Bridgewater has done over the last few years in college suggests his pro-day was just a bad day for him.

On another note, good to see you post JaMarcus. Are you back?

nerd69

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Not putting too much stock in a pro day, but ignoring the scripted nature of it all, this is an impressive throw from under centre for a guy who's used to shotgun.

Reminds me of jamarcus Russell

davyjose

It was a masterclass of a pro day. I think it will improve his stock if only because Bortles and Teddy were so mediocre.
I keep thinking JFF will bust at the NFL and he constantly continues to impreas me.

Paully D

davyjose wrote: »

It was a masterclass of a pro day. I think it will improve his stock if only because Bortles and Teddy were so mediocre.
I keep thinking JFF will bust at the NFL and he constantly continues to impreas me.

Can't recall who said it, but someone summed up what they are thinking about him quite nicely. "I wouldn't draft him, but I don't want my rival to draft him either."

Red Crow

Paully D wrote: »

I don't even bother with the pro-days. If they change someones evaluation of a player, what they have watched and reviewed time and time again on tape, then they're doing something completely wrong. As an AFC Scout said at Bortles' pro-day few weeks ago, it should only be around 1% of the evaluation process. I couldn't believe people were dropping Bridgewater on their draft boards due to his pro-day. Surely you've got to trust in what you have seen on the tape and the body of work a player has accumulated over a number of years? Even though it is scripted, players have bad days. Even the best players have bad days. What Bridgewater has done over the last few years in college suggests his pro-day was just a bad day for him.

On another note, good to see you post JaMarcus. Are you back?

The way I would look at it is that a Pro Day should be an opportunity to show exactly what your good at and that's why Bridgewater's Pro Day will certainly have a negative impact on his draft stock. Don't forget that this could be some of the initial scouting of a player that some Head Coaches do becuase they have been busy the rest of the year. Seeing someone like Bridgewater look so uncomfortable could seriously have an impact on his stock and if I'm the Texans a display like that isn't making me comfortable. I don't think a Pro Day will make you slide but it certainly will have a negative impact and it just raises more red flags.

Chucky the tree

A pro day would never show what Bridgewater excels at though. As a college prospect he's excellent in the pocket, excellent at going through progressions, can read defences and his extremely intelligent. This traits can't be judged at a pro day. Looking at the college tape his deep ball accuracy has always been a problem so seeing his struggle and thus having a "poor" day isn't a huge surprise.


On the other hand a pro-day is a wet-dream for a guy like Manziel. He can show off his deep ball accuracy and display solid arm strength. A pro day doesn't highlight how terrible he is in the pocket and how he knows nothing about going through progressions or reading defences. I generally don't get any use out of a pro, about the only thing I'll look for is arm strength. The rest is pointless.

Chucky the tree

Here's the video of all his throws at the pro day. Angle isn't great. First time I've seen it.

http://www.jaguars.com/media-gallery/videos/Johnny-Manziel-Pro-Day/7ef76f0b-a4aa-4df9-ac37-f33fcf2cc130

I was never a fan of him and I can't say I'm hugely impressed with that video either. A huge amount of his short/intermediate throws seem to wobble a lot. When he can do though is throw lovely deep ball.

ChicagoJoe

Maybe someone unexpected like the Titans stock the world and trade up for Clowney then I can see the Rams being forced to just take the top player on their board. Maybe they will be able to trade down from the later first round pick though, in fact if Derek Carr makes it to 13 I can see the Browns trading up. At very least I think the Rams, like Oakland last year, will have to accept a half price deal if they want to move down, but this isn't like 2012 where you have several teams vying over the one remaining franchise QB in the draft

Knex*

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Here's the video of all his throws at the pro day. Angle isn't great. First time I've seen it.

http://www.jaguars.com/media-gallery/videos/Johnny-Manziel-Pro-Day/7ef76f0b-a4aa-4df9-ac37-f33fcf2cc130

I was never a fan of him and I can't say I'm hugely impressed with that video either. A huge amount of his short/intermediate throws seem to wobble a lot. When he can do that though he does have a lovely deep ball.

Hadn't really noticed that wobble until this video. As you say, its a huge percentage of his throws.

Is it common for a QB to be able to get a tight spiral on the deep ball, yet throw it a bit loose on short-medium throws?

I know Eli has an issue at times like that, albeit not as extreme.

TO.

Knex. wrote: »

Is it common for a QB to be able to get a tight spiral on the deep ball, yet throw it a bit loose on short-medium throws?

Normally the other way around. Depends on the QB but the Wobble normally is more obvious on long high deep passes. Drew Brees is prime example as is Tom Brady. Wobbles on their deep passes but extremely tight spirals on their short passes.

I have a video here explaining the physics of the ball in flight from a QB. I will see if I can cut up the section on it and post up. Nothing wrong with the wobble on long balls I would worry about it on short to mid passes if the wobble is all over the place though as it generally means passes aren't quick. But looking at the tape there is nothing major wrong with Manziel passes even the wobble. Some of the short to mid he zips quickly and others he just floats short.

Chucky the tree

Knex. wrote: »

Hadn't really noticed that wobble until this video. As you say, its a huge percentage of his throws.

Is it common for a QB to be able to get a tight spiral on the deep ball, yet throw it a bit loose on short-medium throws?

I know Eli has an issue at times like that, albeit not as extreme.

Not sure how common it is tbh. I think the reason it happens for Manziel is that he has time to step into the throw on his deep balls. In the most games and even in the gif you post it's a one read deep throw. He knows exactly what he's doing and he has plenty of time to wind up and put his whole body into the throw. In a pro day it doesn't even matter where it lands because a WR is running free and can adjust easily to the to ball.





After he throws it you can see his back leg left up and his throwing arm follow throw which causes his to shift body position a lot. The same happens to everyone when you are asked to throw a ball as hard you can. The problem with this is that in the NFL he won't be able to drop back, stare down his WR and be able to take two steps in his throw. Those scripted deep balls will happen in maybe once or twice per game. That's even before we consider the times a blitzer will come free and Manziel will have to release it early.

Short/Intermediates throws are the bread and butter and Manziel could really struggle with these from that tape. I think the problem is that he can't put his full weight and torque into those throws. He has to rely purely on arm strength and that's where he struggles. Intermediate throws are hugely on timing, he won't have time to step back and then put his full body into it, the timing would be miles off.

Another big question about his arm strength when you see his balls wobble is how he will be able to quickly get rid of the ball to his second or third read in a split second. If he looks the deep ball down the right and it's not open, will he be able look left, and basically throw the ball 15 yards while not getting huge time to step into it with enough zip to get there? I wouldn't be hugely confident.

Paully D

Chucky the tree wrote: »

A pro day would never show what Bridgewater excels at though. As a college prospect he's excellent in the pocket, excellent at going through progressions, can read defences and his extremely intelligent. This traits can't be judged at a pro day. Looking at the college tape his deep ball accuracy has always been a problem so seeing his struggle and thus having a "poor" day isn't a huge surprise.

Excellent post. His deep ball accuracy is not too bad though. Below is a video of all completions on the deep ball from Manziel, Bortles, Bridgewater and Carr. It generated a lot of discussion last night among some of the lesser-known draft guys on Twitter which was pretty interesting to follow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0PKEvPbLVs

Sure, it only shows completions so it's not a perfect way to assess it by any means, but what stands out to me from it is that Bortles' WR's had to slow up and make a lot of plays in order for the completion to occur. Bortles' is, if you believe common opinion, very good on the deep ball but Bridgewater looks better on the above. He did more of the work, whereas in Bortles' clips it seems to be the receivers doing most of the work.

The sheer amount of plays that Mike Evans made on Manziel's deep passes is astonishing, someone commented last night that he's the player that probably stands out most on the YouTube video and it's hard to disagree.

Carr very impressive. He makes throwing a deep ball look so effortless.

HigginsJ

Paully D wrote: »

Carr very impressive. He makes throwing a deep ball look so effortless.

Carr is a strange one for me, for a guy who is going to be (most likely) a 1st round draft pick he has gotten very little attention.

From what I have seen & read all the physical tools are there but the big knock is that he gets easily rattled in the pocket. I know his brothers career was ruined because of this (& in part because of an awful o-line on an expansion team)

If this is a real flaw in him then I would avoid him like the plague. I think there is a lot of things that you can work on fixing at the QB position but jitters in the pocket is not one of them.

Interested in other peoples opinion of him?

eagle eye

HigginsJ wrote: »

Carr is a strange one for me, for a guy who is going to be (most likely) a 1st round draft pick he has gotten very little attention.

From what I have seen & read all the physical tools are there but the big knock is that he gets easily rattled in the pocket. I know his brothers career was ruined because of this (& in part because of an awful o-line on an expansion team)

If this is a real flaw in him then I would avoid him like the plague. I think there is a lot of things that you can work on fixing at the QB position but jitters in the pocket is not one of them.

Interested in other peoples opinion of him?

The ridiculous thing as that people are looking at his brother when deciding what he is like. There is no comparison between them just like there isn't any between the two famous brothers, one is super consistent but is questionable in big games, the other is the total opposite having proven himself on the biggest stage twice but lacking consistency.

Chucky the tree

HigginsJ wrote: »

Carr is a strange one for me, for a guy who is going to be (most likely) a 1st round draft pick he has gotten very little attention.

From what I have seen & read all the physical tools are there but the big knock is that he gets easily rattled in the pocket. I know his brothers career was ruined because of this (& in part because of an awful o-line on an expansion team)

If this is a real flaw in him then I would avoid him like the plague. I think there is a lot of things that you can work on fixing at the QB position but jitters in the pocket is not one of them.

Interested in other peoples opinion of him?

His footwork is a lot more of a concern than his pocket presence. I think he needs to sit for at least year, ideally 2-3 before he's given a chance to start. Personally I wouldn't spend a high pick on him in this draft because of that.

HigginsJ

eagle eye wrote: »

The ridiculous thing as that people are looking at his brother when deciding what he is like. There is no comparison between them just like there isn't any between the two famous brothers, one is super consistent but is questionable in big games, the other is the total opposite having proven himself on the biggest stage twice but lacking consistency.

It's very annoying that every draft analysis seems to reference his brother in some ways

Chucky the tree wrote: »

His footwork is a lot more of a concern than his pocket presence. I think he needs to sit for at least year, ideally 2-3 before he's given a chance to start. Personally I wouldn't spend a high pick on him in this draft because of that.

In an ideal world most QB's coming out could do with sitting for a year but Carr won't have that luxury, unless he fell to Raiders at top of the 2nd or if the Browns used their 2nd 1st rounder on him he could sit behind Brian Hoyer

HigginsJ

I'll be interested to see where Logan Thomas gets drafted. At the end of the year his stock was very low but at the combine he showed off all his athletic ability & he had a very good pro day recently by all accounts.

All the physical tools are there (cannon arm, prototypical size, outstanding athleticism) but he clearly made a lot of mistakes during college.

Of you were going on production he would barely be draftable but he is one of those guys that someone will look at & think that they can fix the problems in his game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drafted in the 2nd round

Dublin Red Devil

I'm starting to think Bortles might be the 1st QB of the board.