Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thomond2006

It's tempting but I've been burned countless times backing the opposition handicap in the RDS.

ionadnapóca

thomond2006 wrote: »

It's tempting but I've been burned countless times backing the opposition handicap in the RDS.

I’ve been tempted....to a 0.5 “point advised” level!

The real mccoy 91

Gloucester getting 4 is tempting with cipriani back..
Also like Edinburgh getting 4
Ulster straight win
And will be taking the over in scarlets v Leicester

aloooof

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Ulster straight win

I think I prefer the Racing side of that, unfortunately.

Is Castres +16 a bit big? Haven't seen the lineups, but they can still qualify so I'd expect them to be somewhat competitive.

Del.Monte

Just starting with some insurance - hopefully, things won't pan out this way.

Del.Monte

Gone with Munster try scorers tonight - hope I don't put the hex on anyone.

sydthebeat

Quite poor odds....

You'll probably need two of them to score to make money?

The real mccoy 91

Gone with
Farrell 3/1
Ben Morgan 9/2

Leinstertomas

Gone for 2 enhanced match specials from Boylesports.
Earls or Conway first try 4/1
Murray or Carbery motm 4/1

sydthebeat

First try scorer Charlie sharplez @10/1

Anytime try scorer Niall scannell @ 10/3

Del.Monte

sydthebeat wrote: »

Quite poor odds....

You'll probably need two of them to score to make money?

Down by just under 10% but it's a game of two halves days and there's plenty of better opportunities tomorrow.

Del.Monte

Thrown some more on Toulouse at 7/2 with an early cash-out in mind once the Leinster screw starts to turn.

razorblunt

Cooney out.
Racing -4 are EVENS.

Del.Monte

Leinster/Toulouse didn't quite go according to plan but I bailed out early and lashed the whole pot on Jacob Stockdale to score any time @ 13/10 - Happy days!

sydthebeat

some early forecasts .....

Leinster -21 is about right.
They will know exactly what they need by the time they kick off and when the TBP is secure they could take the foot off the peddle and wasps could run in some late scores.... therefore im staying away from the spread on this one. I might have a look at half time spreads.

Munster -5 looks attractive. Exeter had a good win last weekend but however they have been pretty kak on the road. a couple of early tries will take the wind from their sails.

i dont like betting on dead rubbers, but i think newcastle -5 against toulon could be good value too. Toulon wont give a crap about this, and they have Racing at home the following week. A home loss against Racing puts them in in the mix again for relegation play offs (though i think they will be safe by then). Newcastle are also staring down the relegation barrell, and while their results over the last few months have been poor, a win here against these "european giants" would be a great fillip for them.

monty / embra is a tough call.. how will monty travel?

ulster -4 v leceister is probably my nap so far though.

sydthebeat

Some open bets:

sydthebeat

add to the above

monty +4

racing -19

Leinstertomas

Have Ulster as part of an accumulator but odds have gone from 1/2 to 10/11. Must be stronger Leicester team than anticipated. Should I be worried?

sydthebeat

Leinstertomas wrote: »

Have Ulster as part of an accumulator but odds have gone from 1/2 to 10/11. Must be stronger Leicester team than anticipated. Should I be worried?

they've gone -4 to -1 so while still favourites the spread has shortened.

It is strong Leicester team but i fancy ulster to win, and i fancy them to win with some to spare.

I'm 8/10 in this weekends games. I need Toulouse and Leinster wins to get 10/10 and €475

Leinstertomas

2/1 double on over 2 tries in 1st half of Leinster match and Glasgow over 12 points in first half v Ospreys

thomond2006

Ireland -9
France scr
Scotland -24

I don't see much value in those games.

sydthebeat

ireland to win by 1 - 12 @ 6/4 has some value...seeing as the spread is -9 and us to win 13+ is @ 6/5

im expecting a very low scoring game

The real mccoy 91

With the named teams have to have a go on davies anytime @9/2

Also looking at a Wales 1-12 and Ireland 1-12 double @11/2

sydthebeat

im not expecting a high try scoring game so i see no value at all in the odds for anytime tryscorers in the ireland england game..... eg dev toner at 12/1 is a joke... realistically he should nearly be 3 times that.

so im looking at POM as MOTM as i expect the game to be swung on individual eye catching moments and no better guy than POM to disrupt english line outs and get over the ball to disrupt..... @10s

also looking at a power up of wales as top tournament points scorers @9/2.... they have us and england at home which will be tight games...
and they could really open up against italy the way they play.... all will come down to the first game to see exactly where they are at.

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The real mccoy 91

Snapped up the 6/4 about a Stockdale try on betway and 8/1 for Stockdale anytime ireland by 1-12 and England under 1.5 tries

thomond2006

I've taken France at evens. I didn't like the bet but then the lineups came out.

sydthebeat

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

8/1 for Stockdale anytime

where did you get that????

edit: sorry, its a treble youve done, i see that now

Del.Monte

Can't make up my mind on France vs Wales but edging towards France. Anyway, so far just over half my pot on England more than 6.5 in the 1st half @10/11. I can already see Ashton doing his butterfly dive inside the first five minutes.



It would help if he wasn't starting on the bench. Lol.

PhuckHugh2

Small scale and will likely get your account closed but Betfair sportsbook have a possible arb up across their main markets.

France win @ Evs
Wales +1 @21/20

For anyone that can get a bet on with them. Not sure its worth the effort and cost yourself an account but may interest some. Free money is free money i suppose.