Why are people still voting Fianna Fail?

v638sg7k1a92bx

In the context of our continued recession and economic woes and despite the current governments difficulties re abortion legislation etc. I still cant understand the rationale for the upsurge in support for FF. Bear in mind that the current government is only in two years, do people have such short memories that they can't remember or fail to realise that is was as a direct result of FF policies that we are in the current predicament.

No party affiliations to declare.

nesf

What people say on surveys and what people do in the voting booth can be quite different. Really, do not interpret a poll right now as probable voting behaviour, in the next election we are going to hear a lot about what FF did and this may damage their support level. People have short memories and all that.

Sand

As I understand it, and I could be wrong, party support in these polls is only measured within the respondents who profess to supporting a party to reach a nice 100% total. People who abandon party support and indicate "None of the above" or "Undecided" reduce the denominator of party support. So if voters abandon Labour and Fine Gael, but declare themselves undecided then by the polls Fianna Fails support will increase, relative to Labour and Fine Gael.

I've said it a couple of times but I'm underwhelmed by reports of Zombie FF. There is little to indicate their support is actually increasing in any meaningful way and that even if it does that their resurgence will survive contact with a new election cycle or a banking inquiry. I just don't see voter rushing back to Fianna Fail, and particularly Michael Martin, with the Anglo Irish tapes being replayed again and again. Fine Gael and Labour aren't in full electoral mode. Yet. When they are reminding the voters who FF are on a daily basis we'll see how solid that FF support base is.

What I believe is happening is that Fine Gael and Labour are suffering from failure to deliver. Labour overpromised to a laughable extent, and are led by a man who has a complicated relationship with honesty. Fine Gael campaigned on a policy of change and reform, and simply through it out the window as soon as they got inside the Dail, going into full gombeen politics mode. I think a lot of voters are backing away from both parties for different reasons, but don't have an alternative (A lot of Labour voters could drift to Fianna Fail, but see above). They answer "Undecided", FF experiences a "resurgence".

Fine Gael might be able to recover because they could wake up and remember they were elected to reform the state. Labour are probably doomed though.

AlmightyCushion

nesf wrote: »

What people say on surveys and what people do in the voting booth can be quite different. Really, do not interpret a poll right now as probable voting behaviour, in the next election we are going to hear a lot about what FF did and this may damage their support level. People have short memories and all that.

While this is true, you have to remember that the party who were in charge in Iceland when shít hit the fan got re-elected recently. The same could happen here.

nesf

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

While this is true, you have to remember that the party who were in charge in Iceland when shít hit the fan got re-elected recently. The same could happen here.

Oh it could very easily happen. I'm just cautioning people not to confuse mid electoral cycle polling with future voting behaviour.

gaius c

But people are not voting Zanu FF. There's been two by-elections, one of which was for a seat that they "owned" and yet the government parties won both easily enough. Remember that government parties are not supposed to win by-elections.

ardmacha

The present government have no more integrity nor competence than FF. They should not be allowed continue in government, in the absence of anyone else to vote for what can people do except alternate them with FF?

Sleepy

As I'd see it, ardmacha, the public perception at present would be that Fine Gael would have more integrity and competence than FF. Far fewer of their politicians have been found out in dodgy dealings and, historically, they've been the "sensible" party used to clean up Fianna Fail's messes... Personally, while I'd have a huge problem with the conservatism of FG on social issues, they're the only ones speaking anything remotely close to economic sense in the Irish arena and, as such, will continue to get my vote for the foreseeable future.

jmayo

ardmacha wrote: »

The present government have no more integrity nor competence than FF. They should not be allowed continue in government, in the absence of anyone else to vote for what can people do except alternate them with FF?

Ahh yes I see you are using the "they are all the same" argument.
I suppose it is bit better than "lehmans are at fault" :rolleyes:

I might not agree with a lot of what the current crowd are doing or rather not doing, but they will have to go a long way down to equal the lack of integrity, total arrogance and sheer gross incompetence of ff.

Manach

jmayo wrote: »

I might not agree with a lot of what the current crowd are doing or rather not doing, but they will have to go a long way down to equal the lack of integrity, total arrogance and sheer gross incompetence of ff.

Gilmore, Hogan and O'Reilly are making a stab at it though.

eireannBEAR

who else can we vote for??

FG are power crazed imbeciles.

and anytime a labour TD speaks its just to spew contempt for the irish people.

Gringo180

What would happen if Sinn Fein were voted in, surely they couldn't be any worse than the morons in power now??

Sleepy

Our deficit would expand as talent and capital flee the country to avoid even more oppressive tax regimes, the markets would cease to lend to us (or at best, do so at insane interest levels), the troika would leave and Sinn Fein would be left having to either default on all national debt or fire most of the public service in order to bring spending in line with receipts.

Or, more realistically, they'd get taken in hand by the senior civil servants and break every election promise they'd made whilst learning how countries are governed.

eireannBEAR

Sleepy wrote: »

Our deficit would expand as talent and capital flee the country to avoid even more oppressive tax regimes, the markets would cease to lend to us (or at best, do so at insane interest levels), the troika would leave and Sinn Fein would be left having to either default on all national debt or fire most of the public service in order to bring spending in line with receipts.

Or, more realistically, they'd get taken in hand by the senior civil servants and break every election promise they'd made whilst learning how countries are governed.

[

THIS.

nuac

While governments are supposed to lose by elections, the Meath bye-election was unusual because of the sym pathy vote.

It was called sooner than usual, and the tragic circs of Shane McEntees death were major factors.

Re polling

the 2011 FF collapse was "overdone" . It was to be expected that they would recover to some extent. A long way to the 40% or more days. Un likely to be seen again in that range, unless FG collapse for some reason.

Labour have already collapsed

antoobrien

Sleepy wrote: »

Or, more realistically, they'd get taken in hand by the senior civil servants and break every election promise they'd made whilst learning how countries are governed.

Isn't this what happened to them in the assembly, they quickly either realised (or more likely were shown) that a lot of their policies were not praticularly practical.

Pat Mustard

eireannBEAR

ardmacha

I might not agree with a lot of what the current crowd are doing or rather not doing, but they will have to go a long way down to equal the lack of integrity, total arrogance and sheer gross incompetence of ff.

It would be undesireable if the present government could behave as they like because the alternative is unelectable. FF became that way you describe because people did not hold them to account.

COYW

ardmacha wrote: »

It would be undesireable if the present government could behave as they like because the alternative is unelectable. FF became that way you describe because people did not hold them to account.

Truth is that there is no alternative. You can have a centrist majority, fractionally to the right on some issues, with a minority of left wing, FG & Labour or more of the same in FF + whatever else you chose.

Interestingly, out of the abortion fallout, a new party may come into existence, with a more right wing moral compass and left wing economic ethos. They will not be a majority party in the next election but they will cost the likes of FG votes and will have a place in politics. Not my cup of tea but it would be nice to see something different in Irish politics.

Sand

COYW wrote: »

Interestingly, out of the abortion fallout, a new party may come into existence, with a more right wing moral compass and left wing economic ethos.

Fianna Fail basically? There might be a gap in the party political market but the <flat cap catholicism/handouts for me and my mates socialism> constituency of voters is already well served.

Potatoeman

Even though FF caused the mess the country is in they put off cuts so the party elected after them would be seen as implementing these cuts. Many of the rate cuts/ allowances cuts being protested against should never have existed in the first place.
I remember an English guy complaining against cuts to disabled children allowences as he moved here due to the better allowances. It made my head spin that he would claim this on TV. People remember who brings in the cuts not who caused them.

Sleepy

Sand wrote: »

Fianna Fail basically? There might be a gap in the party political market but the <flat cap catholicism/handouts for me and my mates socialism> constituency of voters is already well served.

I'd agree, it's the exact opposite we need: right of centre on economic issues and liberal socially.

Brussels Sprout

A huge problem for FF in future elections will be that (like SF) they'll be transfer repellent. Their core voters (along with their cheerleaders in the Sunday Independent) appear to have deemed it ok to come crawling back to them at this point. However they'll have a lot more problems getting the number 2 and number 3 votes that are vital for any politician getting elected within our electoral system.

Sierra Oscar

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

A huge problem for FF in future elections will be that (like SF) they'll be transfer repellent. Their core voters (along with their cheerleaders in the Sunday Independent) appear to have deemed it ok to come crawling back to them at this point. However they'll have a lot more problems getting the number 2 and number 3 votes that are vital for any politician getting elected within our electoral system.

Both by-elections since the General Election have shown a substantial improvement in the transfers moving towards Fianna Fáil. Obtaining first preferences will remain the most difficult task, but it is the likes of Labour that will become transfer toxic.

If there was an election tomorrow, and FF still only received 17% of the first preference votes that they got in the GE, if you factor in the improvement in transfers in the two by-elections then the party would gain extra Dáil seats even with only the same number of first preferences.

Going Forward

jmayo wrote: »

Ahh yes I see you are using the "they are all the same" argument.
I suppose it is bit better than "lehmans are at fault" :rolleyes:

I might not agree with a lot of what the current crowd are doing or rather not doing, but they will have to go a long way down to equal the lack of integrity, total arrogance and sheer gross incompetence of ff.

Give them time.
They are all liars.

jobeenfitz

As already pointed out it happened in Iceland and the fact that there is even the tiniest(hopefully miniscule) chance FF could be the largest party after the next GE just confirms that sanity is in short supply it this world. I do see a major problem if we want to elect other that FG led government next time. Who could it be if not FF? So it could just come down to the least worst option. Sad situation indeed.

BadCharlie

Don't understand also why FF are doing so well in the polls. I know my parents in law was visting and one said, Im going to vote FF back in at the next election "We never had it this bad with FF in power" both of them agreeing. I did not say anything but was thinking of all my friends and relations that have left the country.

So that is how they will get back in, the older people will vote them back in while the younger generation are working overseas.

Ohh i like to add i jump from party to party when voting. I look at what they say they are going to do and make my mind up on that. But will never vote FF again.

eyescreamcone

COYW wrote: »

Truth is that there is no alternative. You can have a centrist majority, fractionally to the right on some issues, with a minority of left wing, FG & Labour or more of the same in FF + whatever else you chose.

Interestingly, out of the abortion fallout, a new party may come into existence, with a more right wing moral compass and left wing economic ethos. They will not be a majority party in the next election but they will cost the likes of FG votes and will have a place in politics. Not my cup of tea but it would be nice to see something different in Irish politics.

I'm looking for a party with a left wing moral compass with a right wing economic ethos - who should I vote for???

DoesNotCompute

The way I see it, FF seem to be picking up support from former Labour and/or FG supporters, who are disillusioned with the current government because they are increasing taxes and making cuts to services. People are also getting behind the rhetoric that FF are spouting from the backbenches about the austerity agenda, etc.

What these same people don't realise is that even if an election were called tomorrow, and FF won by a landslide victory, the cuts and increase in taxes would still have to be made.

It's shortsightedness on behalf of the electorate.

TwoShedsJackson

They got 17% or so in the last election, despite just having bankrupted the country for the third time. That is the hardcore support they will never lose, the 'he fixed the road', the 'our family has always voted FF so I vote FF' element that have no interest in politics really.

Their FF TD could call round and sacrafice their eldest child to Satan in their front garden and they'd still vote FF.

Pat Mustard

Link.

LATEST Irish poll figures have shown... that Ireland’s voting population is saturated with brain dead morons.

“Most of these idiots would have a sort of ‘goldfish’ memory, making them susceptible to the Fianna Fail PR machine.”

Riddle101

When you have so few options to choose from, I think you'll find many will vote for the same people again, even if they did wrong in the past. People voted for Fianna Faíl after Charles Haughey remember and he was arguably worse then Bertie Ahern. But sure enough it wasn't enough to turn people fully against them. Now we're seeing the same thing again. People want to current FF back in power because they're still not happy, and seem to think maybe this FF will be better then the last.

Pat Mustard

The Fianna Fáil party has been in 19 of the 25 governments that we have had since 1932.

That number is disproportionate in the extreme.

I don't think that the numbers can be explained by saying that support will rise for Fianna Fáil because voters are unhappy with Fine Gael.

The Irish voter has an obtuse, almost addictive relationship with FF.

I know that the Healy-Raes are no longer member of FF, and even though that recent bid to allow drink-driving for seasoned rural-dwelling drinkers was probably just a publicity gimmick*, it was still parish pump paddywhackery of the highest order.

This type of voter irresponsibility will result in this kind of representative:





*I presume that they knew that it could not succeed.

nesf

The Mustard wrote: »

The Fianna Fáil party has been in 19 of the 25 governments that we have had since 1932.

That number is disproportionate in the extreme.

I don't think that the numbers can be explained by saying that support will rise for Fianna Fáil because voters are unhappy with Fine Gael.

The Irish voter has an obtuse, almost addictive relationship with FF.

I know that the Healy-Raes are no longer member of FF, and even though that recent bid to allow drink-driving for seasoned rural-dwelling drinkers was probably just a publicity gimmick*, it was still parish pump paddywhackery of the highest order.

This type of voter irresponsibility will result in this kind of representative:





*I presume that they knew that it could not succeed.

Well, FF tried to get rid of Jackie by not allowing him to run for the seat he'd held for 20 odd years in Kerry South. So he went Independent and FF have had one less seat there since...

Because people are gluttons for punishment.

worded

Read the poster ..... One road fixed ....More fixes to follow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjl8OIZijjY&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Pat Mustard

nesf wrote: »

Well, FF tried to get rid of Jackie by not allowing him to run for the seat he'd held for 20 odd years in Kerry South. So he went Independent and FF have had one less seat there since...

Well then, I present other famous FF personalities, voted in by the adoring Irish electorate:

Ivor Callely, who had a long old commute from West Cork to Leinster House. Fair play to him.



Pee Flynn, who had to struggle to manage the cost of his homes in Dublin, Castlebar and Brussels and a few housekeepers on his £140,000 salary, who cautioned others to "try it sometime." There are also some charming youtube comments from happy former constituents.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ORNfD8e_sk

Beverley Flynn, who lost her libel case and Supreme Court Appeal, running up costs of €2.3m.



Ray Burke, who receives income of €103,000.00 per year from the State.



A man who had no bank account when he was Minister for Finance. It was those pesky banking charges, I suppose. Famously wondered why cribbers and moaners didn't commit suicide. Turned up in a cupboard on an ad. There is a vulgar yet amusing song on youtube called Message for Bertie Ahern (NSFW). Obviously the singer is not a fan.



Charles J. Haughey, fan of Napoleon. A man of wealth and taste in shirts. Not every fella had a private island with an air exclusion zone. Lived in a mansion. Ate at Le Coq Hardi. Advised the public to tighten their belts.

Son Of A Vidic

The Mustard wrote: »

People are also forgetting that......

.jacksparrow.

Its called propaganda, keep telling people the same thing over and ever again, eventualy they will believe it.


Sheep.

_Kaiser_

- Lack of real/realistic options

- A lazy electorate with a "can't someone ELSE do it" approach to civic responsibility AKA the "I'm alright Jack" effect

- Support for the cute hoor mentality that leads to all these "strokes" by politicians and other "leaders" in our society

- A broken system where 90% of TDs are there solely to make up the numbers anyway (and line their own pockets of course)

- Collusion and support from the Civil Service, Gardai, military, trade unions (ie: the kind of groups that can generally support/force change)

Actually.. I'm tempted to withdraw the second point above. I'm not actually sure if it's just laziness or an inherent docile submissive nature to "Authority" after generations of being run by the corrupt, backwards institution that is the Catholic Church (in other news this morning - Church refuses to pay compensation to the Magdeline victims), and government after government (and it makes no difference which party is at the wheel) of local gombeen men having their fill at the taxpayer's expense to the point where most are just resigned to the fact that things just won't change regardless of whatever comes to light.

Why else are there not mass protests over the Anglo Tapes, why have people like Reilly and Hogan not been forced to resign, why has the Garda Commissioner not been stripped of his post and members fired over recent behavior like the Penalty Points affair, leaking supposedly confidential information on citizens for political point-scoring and so on, why has not ONE former politician or banking executive been sent to prison for crashing the economy etc..

Really, if we're not prepared to fully hand over the reins to someone else, whether that be the UK, US or (last resort IMO) the EU, then I can only advise that anyone who has the option and opportunity leaves this corrupt little cesspool and never looks back - were it not for my own age and personal circumstances that's what I'd be doing!

nuac

Gardai, military, "forcing change" - like in Egypt?

T runner

Jessie Microscopic Kicker wrote: »

In the context of our continued recession and economic woes and despite the current governments difficulties re abortion legislation etc. I still cant understand the rationale for the upsurge in support for FF. Bear in mind that the current government is only in two years, do people have such short memories that they can't remember or fail to realise that is was as a direct result of FF policies that we are in the current predicament.

No party affiliations to declare.

No matter who gets elected, the typical "type" of candidate and TD will be a middle aged, wife at home, socially conservative, pint drinking when supposed to be working, anti-intellectual relic who is un-representative of the population.

T runner

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

- Lack of real/realistic options

- A lazy electorate with a "can't someone ELSE do it" approach to civic responsibility AKA the "I'm alright Jack" effect

- Support for the cute hoor mentality that leads to all these "strokes" by politicians and other "leaders" in our society

- A broken system where 90% of TDs are there solely to make up the numbers anyway (and line their own pockets of course)

- Collusion and support from the Civil Service, Gardai, military, trade unions (ie: the kind of groups that can generally support/force change)

Actually.. I'm tempted to withdraw the second point above. I'm not actually sure if it's just laziness or an inherent docile submissive nature to "Authority" after generations of being run by the corrupt, backwards institution that is the Catholic Church (in other news this morning - Church refuses to pay compensation to the Magdeline victims), and government after government (and it makes no difference which party is at the wheel) of local gombeen men having their fill at the taxpayer's expense to the point where most are just resigned to the fact that things just won't change regardless of whatever comes to light.

Why else are there not mass protests over the Anglo Tapes, why have people like Reilly and Hogan not been forced to resign, why has the Garda Commissioner not been stripped of his post and members fired over recent behavior like the Penalty Points affair, leaking supposedly confidential information on citizens for political point-scoring and so on, why has not ONE former politician or banking executive been sent to prison for crashing the economy etc..

Really, if we're not prepared to fully hand over the reins to someone else, whether that be the UK, US or (last resort IMO) the EU, then I can only advise that anyone who has the option and opportunity leaves this corrupt little cesspool and never looks back - were it not for my own age and personal circumstances that's what I'd be doing!

Why not attempt to solve theses problems rather than hand over sovereignty to supra-national authorities with problems and loyalties of their own?

Any corruption here is drawved by what transpired in colonial times: (£1.5 million paid to Irish MPs to "vote" for Act of Union!)

A reformation to ensure a representative Dail would be a great start. Further breakthroughs would ensue. The talent is in the country, but not represented in Dail Eireann. The EU has overall been of huge social and economic benefit to Ireland. Its foreign policy is also acceptable to us which is clearly not the case for your other suggestions.

oscarBravo

T runner wrote: »

...anti-intellectual relic who is un-representative of the population.

There's a lot of work to be done to convince me that an anti-intellectual is unrepresentative of the population.

Sleepy

T runner wrote: »

Why not attempt to solve theses problems rather than hand over sovereignty to supra-national authorities with problems and loyalties of their own?

Fear of jail? Honestly, as an ordinary individual the most effective input I could have into politics in Ireland would involve a rifle.

Bullseye1

Jessie Microscopic Kicker wrote: »

In the context of our continued recession and economic woes and despite the current governments difficulties re abortion legislation etc. I still cant understand the rationale for the upsurge in support for FF. Bear in mind that the current government is only in two years, do people have such short memories that they can't remember or fail to realise that is was as a direct result of FF policies that we are in the current predicament.

No party affiliations to declare.

I guess 1. The die hard fans will vote for them no matter what and 2. The current bunch are not exactly covering themselves in glory either.

The economy is back in recession, the banks are broken and may well require more capital from taxpayers, one in seven people in the workforce is without work and public debt is touching €200 billion.
On top of this litany of woes, the State’s statisticians said yesterday that the value of goods exports fell in May to €7 billion, well below the monthly average over recent times – in 2011-12 that average was €7.6 billion. The one bright spot over the past half decade of recession – sales of goods and services to foreigners – has faltered this year. Sources of growth in the Irish economy are now fewer than ever.

Source: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/ratings-move-helps-with-debt-burden-1.1462267

T runner

oscarBravo wrote: »

There's a lot of work to be done to convince me that an anti-intellectual is unrepresentative of the population.

Anti-intellectualism is not confined to these shores. Sorry if i've misunderstood but I don't really subscribe to the defeatest attitude that we as Irish are not fit to govern ourselves.

Look at a recent poll on abortion. (from memory) 75% of irish people would favour abortion for foetal abnormalities, and cases of incest and rape.

Yet the vast majority of the two main political parties vehementally oppose this reasonable position.

The drunk TD manhandling a female colleague does not represent Irish men or women most of home respect women as equals in the workforce and share in child rearing.

There are plenty of politically minded people with immense talent and integrity who are simply locked out of politics by its current structure and by barriers that protect the status quo.

The people of Ireland are different, thinking for themselves.

Reflecting this in political structures is not easy. Even after one of the worst crises in the States history the politicians are unwilling to reform without duress.

No, they are anti-intellectual...and that does not represent the population anymore.

T runner

Sleepy wrote: »

Fear of jail? Honestly, as an ordinary individual the most effective input I could have into politics in Ireland would involve a rifle.

Anybody can say that of any country. No. You can engage in mass democratic protest. This is highly effective.
It is the political elite who fear this and who benefit from your fear and apathy.

You could also identify radical changes that could produce many more.

I see Ireland being more open minded now..as progressing. I see Dail TDs as men of the 70's.

Most effective step is to make the Dail more representative. For me that is gender quotas for Dail Eireann. Not every agrees with it but more and more people are starting to view it as necessary now. The amount of structural change and barrier removal just to accomplish this would open up politics for many many more people (of both sexes, more cultures, more backgrounds.)

Potatoeman

T runner wrote: »

Anybody can say that of any country. No. You can engage in mass democratic protest. This is highly effective.
It is the political elite who fear this and who benefit from your fear and apathy.

You could also identify radical changes that could produce many more.

I see Ireland being more open minded now..as progressing. I see Dail TDs as men of the 70's.

Most effective step is to make the Dail more representative. For me that is gender quotas for Dail Eireann. Not every agrees with it but more and more people are starting to view it as necessary now. The amount of structural change and barrier removal just to accomplish this would open up politics for many many more people (of both sexes, more cultures, more backgrounds.)

Quotas will just see more women from the same class fill these positions so nothing will change and even then there is no guarantee that they will be voted for. I dont think there is a valid reason for quotas based on gender as its not a motivator for people that vote. Its more reflective of the age group of politicians rather than bias.

What other cultures are you looking for? Shouldnt we be presented by Irish people?

T runner

Potatoeman wrote: »

Quotas will just see more women from the same class fill these positions so nothing will change and even then there is no guarantee that they will be voted for. I dont think there is a valid reason for quotas based on gender as its not a motivator for people that vote. Its more reflective of the age group of politicians rather than bias.

What other cultures are you looking for? Shouldnt we be presented by Irish people?

The initial change will be what the establishment must do to facilitate more women candidates. They must remove barriers to this happenning which will effectively mean chnaging political culture. Less barriers will mean opening up politics to more men (with more life experinces) so the result is politicians who are more represenative with a wider skillset and range of experiences. Cost is one of the barriers affecting women. Addressing this should open things up to people on lower incomes.



Drawing from a bigger pool means better quality.
If IT professionals could only be drawn from middle aged men from a narropw background with a child minding wife at home would the It industry be a poorer place? Ofcourse it would.

Same with politics or any other sector. If you know of another way of opening it up im all ears. If not then without quotas, FF will keep popping back up like a jack in the box, FG will win votes despite their catholic social policies, and other parties will never be able to threaten this status quo. As i said, its not ideal, but people are starting to realsie that it may be necessary.

BTW the definition of Irish is having an Irish passport. Culture doesnt nor shouldnt come into it. Religion does, but that will hopefully be removed from the constitution too.