Why are people still voting Fianna Fail?

v638sg7k1a92bx

In the context of our continued recession and economic woes and despite the current governments difficulties re abortion legislation etc. I still cant understand the rationale for the upsurge in support for FF. Bear in mind that the current government is only in two years, do people have such short memories that they can't remember or fail to realise that is was as a direct result of FF policies that we are in the current predicament.

No party affiliations to declare.

nesf

What people say on surveys and what people do in the voting booth can be quite different. Really, do not interpret a poll right now as probable voting behaviour, in the next election we are going to hear a lot about what FF did and this may damage their support level. People have short memories and all that.

Sand

As I understand it, and I could be wrong, party support in these polls is only measured within the respondents who profess to supporting a party to reach a nice 100% total. People who abandon party support and indicate "None of the above" or "Undecided" reduce the denominator of party support. So if voters abandon Labour and Fine Gael, but declare themselves undecided then by the polls Fianna Fails support will increase, relative to Labour and Fine Gael.

I've said it a couple of times but I'm underwhelmed by reports of Zombie FF. There is little to indicate their support is actually increasing in any meaningful way and that even if it does that their resurgence will survive contact with a new election cycle or a banking inquiry. I just don't see voter rushing back to Fianna Fail, and particularly Michael Martin, with the Anglo Irish tapes being replayed again and again. Fine Gael and Labour aren't in full electoral mode. Yet. When they are reminding the voters who FF are on a daily basis we'll see how solid that FF support base is.

What I believe is happening is that Fine Gael and Labour are suffering from failure to deliver. Labour overpromised to a laughable extent, and are led by a man who has a complicated relationship with honesty. Fine Gael campaigned on a policy of change and reform, and simply through it out the window as soon as they got inside the Dail, going into full gombeen politics mode. I think a lot of voters are backing away from both parties for different reasons, but don't have an alternative (A lot of Labour voters could drift to Fianna Fail, but see above). They answer "Undecided", FF experiences a "resurgence".

Fine Gael might be able to recover because they could wake up and remember they were elected to reform the state. Labour are probably doomed though.

AlmightyCushion

nesf wrote: »

What people say on surveys and what people do in the voting booth can be quite different. Really, do not interpret a poll right now as probable voting behaviour, in the next election we are going to hear a lot about what FF did and this may damage their support level. People have short memories and all that.

While this is true, you have to remember that the party who were in charge in Iceland when shít hit the fan got re-elected recently. The same could happen here.

nesf

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

While this is true, you have to remember that the party who were in charge in Iceland when shít hit the fan got re-elected recently. The same could happen here.

Oh it could very easily happen. I'm just cautioning people not to confuse mid electoral cycle polling with future voting behaviour.

gaius c

But people are not voting Zanu FF. There's been two by-elections, one of which was for a seat that they "owned" and yet the government parties won both easily enough. Remember that government parties are not supposed to win by-elections.

ardmacha

The present government have no more integrity nor competence than FF. They should not be allowed continue in government, in the absence of anyone else to vote for what can people do except alternate them with FF?

Sleepy

As I'd see it, ardmacha, the public perception at present would be that Fine Gael would have more integrity and competence than FF. Far fewer of their politicians have been found out in dodgy dealings and, historically, they've been the "sensible" party used to clean up Fianna Fail's messes... Personally, while I'd have a huge problem with the conservatism of FG on social issues, they're the only ones speaking anything remotely close to economic sense in the Irish arena and, as such, will continue to get my vote for the foreseeable future.

jmayo

ardmacha wrote: »

The present government have no more integrity nor competence than FF. They should not be allowed continue in government, in the absence of anyone else to vote for what can people do except alternate them with FF?

Ahh yes I see you are using the "they are all the same" argument.
I suppose it is bit better than "lehmans are at fault" :rolleyes:

I might not agree with a lot of what the current crowd are doing or rather not doing, but they will have to go a long way down to equal the lack of integrity, total arrogance and sheer gross incompetence of ff.

Manach

jmayo wrote: »

I might not agree with a lot of what the current crowd are doing or rather not doing, but they will have to go a long way down to equal the lack of integrity, total arrogance and sheer gross incompetence of ff.

Gilmore, Hogan and O'Reilly are making a stab at it though.

eireannBEAR

who else can we vote for??

FG are power crazed imbeciles.

and anytime a labour TD speaks its just to spew contempt for the irish people.

Gringo180

What would happen if Sinn Fein were voted in, surely they couldn't be any worse than the morons in power now??

Sleepy

Our deficit would expand as talent and capital flee the country to avoid even more oppressive tax regimes, the markets would cease to lend to us (or at best, do so at insane interest levels), the troika would leave and Sinn Fein would be left having to either default on all national debt or fire most of the public service in order to bring spending in line with receipts.

Or, more realistically, they'd get taken in hand by the senior civil servants and break every election promise they'd made whilst learning how countries are governed.

eireannBEAR

Sleepy wrote: »

Our deficit would expand as talent and capital flee the country to avoid even more oppressive tax regimes, the markets would cease to lend to us (or at best, do so at insane interest levels), the troika would leave and Sinn Fein would be left having to either default on all national debt or fire most of the public service in order to bring spending in line with receipts.

Or, more realistically, they'd get taken in hand by the senior civil servants and break every election promise they'd made whilst learning how countries are governed.

[

THIS.

nuac

While governments are supposed to lose by elections, the Meath bye-election was unusual because of the sym pathy vote.

It was called sooner than usual, and the tragic circs of Shane McEntees death were major factors.

Re polling

the 2011 FF collapse was "overdone" . It was to be expected that they would recover to some extent. A long way to the 40% or more days. Un likely to be seen again in that range, unless FG collapse for some reason.

Labour have already collapsed

antoobrien

Sleepy wrote: »

Or, more realistically, they'd get taken in hand by the senior civil servants and break every election promise they'd made whilst learning how countries are governed.

Isn't this what happened to them in the assembly, they quickly either realised (or more likely were shown) that a lot of their policies were not praticularly practical.

Pat Mustard

eireannBEAR

ardmacha

I might not agree with a lot of what the current crowd are doing or rather not doing, but they will have to go a long way down to equal the lack of integrity, total arrogance and sheer gross incompetence of ff.

It would be undesireable if the present government could behave as they like because the alternative is unelectable. FF became that way you describe because people did not hold them to account.

COYW

ardmacha wrote: »

It would be undesireable if the present government could behave as they like because the alternative is unelectable. FF became that way you describe because people did not hold them to account.

Truth is that there is no alternative. You can have a centrist majority, fractionally to the right on some issues, with a minority of left wing, FG & Labour or more of the same in FF + whatever else you chose.

Interestingly, out of the abortion fallout, a new party may come into existence, with a more right wing moral compass and left wing economic ethos. They will not be a majority party in the next election but they will cost the likes of FG votes and will have a place in politics. Not my cup of tea but it would be nice to see something different in Irish politics.

Sand

COYW wrote: »

Interestingly, out of the abortion fallout, a new party may come into existence, with a more right wing moral compass and left wing economic ethos.

Fianna Fail basically? There might be a gap in the party political market but the <flat cap catholicism/handouts for me and my mates socialism> constituency of voters is already well served.

Potatoeman

Even though FF caused the mess the country is in they put off cuts so the party elected after them would be seen as implementing these cuts. Many of the rate cuts/ allowances cuts being protested against should never have existed in the first place.
I remember an English guy complaining against cuts to disabled children allowences as he moved here due to the better allowances. It made my head spin that he would claim this on TV. People remember who brings in the cuts not who caused them.

Sleepy

Sand wrote: »

Fianna Fail basically? There might be a gap in the party political market but the <flat cap catholicism/handouts for me and my mates socialism> constituency of voters is already well served.

I'd agree, it's the exact opposite we need: right of centre on economic issues and liberal socially.

Brussels Sprout

A huge problem for FF in future elections will be that (like SF) they'll be transfer repellent. Their core voters (along with their cheerleaders in the Sunday Independent) appear to have deemed it ok to come crawling back to them at this point. However they'll have a lot more problems getting the number 2 and number 3 votes that are vital for any politician getting elected within our electoral system.

Sierra Oscar

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

A huge problem for FF in future elections will be that (like SF) they'll be transfer repellent. Their core voters (along with their cheerleaders in the Sunday Independent) appear to have deemed it ok to come crawling back to them at this point. However they'll have a lot more problems getting the number 2 and number 3 votes that are vital for any politician getting elected within our electoral system.

Both by-elections since the General Election have shown a substantial improvement in the transfers moving towards Fianna Fáil. Obtaining first preferences will remain the most difficult task, but it is the likes of Labour that will become transfer toxic.

If there was an election tomorrow, and FF still only received 17% of the first preference votes that they got in the GE, if you factor in the improvement in transfers in the two by-elections then the party would gain extra Dáil seats even with only the same number of first preferences.

Going Forward

jmayo wrote: »

Ahh yes I see you are using the "they are all the same" argument.
I suppose it is bit better than "lehmans are at fault" :rolleyes:

I might not agree with a lot of what the current crowd are doing or rather not doing, but they will have to go a long way down to equal the lack of integrity, total arrogance and sheer gross incompetence of ff.

Give them time.
They are all liars.

jobeenfitz

As already pointed out it happened in Iceland and the fact that there is even the tiniest(hopefully miniscule) chance FF could be the largest party after the next GE just confirms that sanity is in short supply it this world. I do see a major problem if we want to elect other that FG led government next time. Who could it be if not FF? So it could just come down to the least worst option. Sad situation indeed.

BadCharlie

Don't understand also why FF are doing so well in the polls. I know my parents in law was visting and one said, Im going to vote FF back in at the next election "We never had it this bad with FF in power" both of them agreeing. I did not say anything but was thinking of all my friends and relations that have left the country.

So that is how they will get back in, the older people will vote them back in while the younger generation are working overseas.

Ohh i like to add i jump from party to party when voting. I look at what they say they are going to do and make my mind up on that. But will never vote FF again.

eyescreamcone

COYW wrote: »

Truth is that there is no alternative. You can have a centrist majority, fractionally to the right on some issues, with a minority of left wing, FG & Labour or more of the same in FF + whatever else you chose.

Interestingly, out of the abortion fallout, a new party may come into existence, with a more right wing moral compass and left wing economic ethos. They will not be a majority party in the next election but they will cost the likes of FG votes and will have a place in politics. Not my cup of tea but it would be nice to see something different in Irish politics.

I'm looking for a party with a left wing moral compass with a right wing economic ethos - who should I vote for???

DoesNotCompute

The way I see it, FF seem to be picking up support from former Labour and/or FG supporters, who are disillusioned with the current government because they are increasing taxes and making cuts to services. People are also getting behind the rhetoric that FF are spouting from the backbenches about the austerity agenda, etc.

What these same people don't realise is that even if an election were called tomorrow, and FF won by a landslide victory, the cuts and increase in taxes would still have to be made.

It's shortsightedness on behalf of the electorate.

TwoShedsJackson

They got 17% or so in the last election, despite just having bankrupted the country for the third time. That is the hardcore support they will never lose, the 'he fixed the road', the 'our family has always voted FF so I vote FF' element that have no interest in politics really.

Their FF TD could call round and sacrafice their eldest child to Satan in their front garden and they'd still vote FF.