egypt about to collapse??

Iwasfrozen

wes wrote: »

The military in Turkey also had a habit of butchering Kurds on a regular basis, so there hardly a great example to use.

In fairness the Turkish military did hand back power voluntarily, but there very much the exception.

Also, it is far better that people compromise via the democratic process, as opposed to having the military come in and topple governments. All you will end up with is a viscous cycle

Well yes, democratic compromise would be ideal but when a large portion of the population are religious nutjobs who desire oppressive regimes then the military has a duty to prevent this. All I'm saying is freedom > democracy when it comes to crunch.

old_aussie

Religion should stay well out of politics.

You've just gotta step back and watch Egypt implode.

eireannBEAR

old_aussie wrote: »

Religion should stay well out of politics.

You've just gotta step back and watch Egypt implode.

allahu akbar. :pac:

Scofflaw

wes wrote: »

The military in Turkey also had a habit of butchering Kurds on a regular basis, so there hardly a great example to use.

In fairness the Turkish military did hand back power voluntarily, but there very much the exception.

Also, it is far better that people compromise via the democratic process, as opposed to having the military come in and topple governments. All you will end up with is a viscous cycle

There's a difficulty with respect to religious rules, though, which is that they're not really susceptible to democratic compromise, on account of being eternal verities. If God says "thou shalt not do x" it's generally not accepted by the faithful that you can simply outvote that - no amount of votes can make what's wrong right.

cordially,
Scofflaw

eireannBEAR

300 arrest warrants issued for the muslim brotherhood,morsi is being held by the military.

i dont agree with this,at the end of the day he didnt break the law.

Reekwind

Scofflaw wrote: »

There's a difficulty with respect to religious rules, though, which is that they're not really susceptible to democratic compromise, on account of being eternal verities. If God says "thou shalt not do x" it's generally not accepted by the faithful that you can simply outvote that - no amount of votes can make what's wrong right

Somebody should tell that to the Christian Democracy parties that have been a mainstay of European politics since the war

The root problem here is not religion but the failure of secular authorities in the Arab world in the past century. There was no room for moderate Muslim opposition to the likes of Mubarak and so an alternative, one that rejected secular state structures, took shape. I don't see this coup addressing that key faultline

eireannBEAR wrote:

300 arrest warrants issued for the muslim brotherhood,morsi is being held by the military.

i dont agree with this,at the end of the day he didnt break the law.

Military coups are, by definition, extrajudicial. Nothing about these events is legal or otherwise respects the law

wes

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Well yes, democratic compromise would be ideal but when a large portion of the population are religious nutjobs who desire oppressive regimes then the military has a duty to prevent this. All I'm saying is freedom > democracy when it comes to crunch.

Again, the military doesn't necessarily represent freedom, and disenfranchising a huge amount of the populace regardless of what they believe, doesn't end well imho.

Neither side is coming out looking good here, and I think your ignoring the huge and imho very likely potential for things to go badly wrong.

biko

eireannBEAR wrote: »

is this the end of the brotherhood??

Inshallah!

But in honesty, when the military steps in it usually gets worse. Hopefully not this time.

wes

Scofflaw wrote: »

There's a difficulty with respect to religious rules, though, which is that they're not really susceptible to democratic compromise, on account of being eternal verities. If God says "thou shalt not do x" it's generally not accepted by the faithful that you can simply outvote that - no amount of votes can make what's wrong right.

A fair point, and as I said earlier Morsi did himself no favours, with the way he was running things. He should have stepped down imho, as he clearly lost legitimacy, but I fail to see people behind a military coup being any better than him, and this sets a very bad example for Egypt, and regardless of one feeling on Religion and politics, the fact remains that a lot of people support Morsi, and a military coup is a recipe for disaster.

Hopefully things work out, but I don't see it as being likely.

The following article from Juan Coles blog, says things better than I do:
Egypt’s “Revocouption” and the future of Democracy on the Nile

Scofflaw

I wouldn't really agree that a military coup is necessarily a recipe for disaster. The downside risk is certainly large, but not guaranteed to materialise.

cordially,
Scofflaw

wes

Scofflaw wrote: »

I wouldn't really agree that a military coup is necessarily a recipe for disaster. The downside risk is certainly large, but not guaranteed to materialise.

cordially,
Scofflaw

There are certainly no guarantees, and its possible that both sides don't do something stupid to escalate things. Its just that from what I know of both sides, I think there is a good change that the Muslim brotherhood, or military will do something very stupid and things could easily escalate beyond there control.

Jonny7

It's early days yet, I think the country was headed toward a definite trainwreck with Morsi at the helm, such was the growing animosity toward him, especially over the creeping islamifaction and the economy

What has happened is entirely illegal - however I think in a choice between chaos and the current procedings, then the current is the better option

The Muslim Brotherhood were one of the only coherent parties after Mubarak fell, mainly due to the fact that opposition was pretty scarce during the last decades - and many seem to feel that this is the only reason the MB got in in the first place

bmaxi

eireannBEAR wrote: »

300 arrest warrants issued for the muslim brotherhood,morsi is being held by the military.

i dont agree with this,at the end of the day he didnt break the law.

No, he just lied, imposed his opinions, ignored the majority of the population, favoured his own and denied dignity to the working classes. A bit like Enda Kenny in other words, maybe we should round up the cabinet. On me way to Cathal Brugha barracks to rally the lads as we speak
Seriously, this is the sort of scenario that played out in Ireland from the 1920s to the 1980s when an extreme religious movement and their toadies controlled the state, it's just that a much larger portion of the population here was in thrall to that religious movement and so the country lacked volatility, such was also the case in Iran in the 1970s when the Ayatollahs first came to power. It was just such a prospect, IMO, plus the prospect of zero funds from the West for a fundamentalist government that prompted the unrest and the military intervention in Egypt but military intervention has a particularly bad history in this region.

An Coilean

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Don't know if anyone's posted this yet but here's a live cam onto the celebrations in Cairo after Morsi's ousting. Pretty amazing stuff and I hope the secularists win through.

http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News/80938159

It always strikes me that the Islamic world is a good example to show democracy is not always the best option. Sometimes you have to suspend democracy in order to guarantee the rights of the individual.

Its all well and good when its going your way, but the army stepping into politics is a doubble edged sword. I think the army will keep faith and allow free elections again but if they do one of the principle tasks of the new administration will be to bring the army to heel and make sure this does not happen to a democratically elected government again.

eireannBEAR

bmaxi wrote: »

No, he just lied, imposed his opinions, ignored the majority of the population, favoured his own and denied dignity to the working classes. A bit like Enda Kenny in other words, maybe we should round up the cabinet. On me way to Cathal Brugha barracks to rally the lads as we speak
Seriously, this is the sort of scenario that played out in Ireland from the 1920s to the 1980s when an extreme religious movement and their toadies controlled the state, it's just that a much larger portion of the population here was in thrall to that religious movement and so the country lacked volatility, such was also the case in Iran in the 1970s when the Ayatollahs first came to power. It was just such a prospect, IMO, plus the prospect of zero funds from the West for a fundamentalist government that prompted the unrest and the military intervention in Egypt but military intervention has a particularly bad history in this region.

i dont support him,but he had the majority of support so you are wrong there.

any new government will be a puppet state run by generals. and mubarak era judges.

wes

Egyptian authorities target Al Jazeera

Clamping down on the media like this, is a very bad sign. We may be looking at a very shaky road ahead.

bmaxi

eireannBEAR wrote: »

i dont support him,but he had the majority of support so you are wrong there.

any new government will be a puppet state run by generals. and mubarak era judges.

Not exactly, he got a majority of a minority. Many Egyptians were disenchanted with the fare on offer in the election and did not vote. When you have a situation like that, where you have one group of dedicated people who will vote to a man for their candidate and another group apathetic, the result is almost inevitable.
The Army was never going to go away in Egypt, too deeply entrenched. Morsi chose the wrong strategy and was a poor choice for the task in hand, not amenable enough.

old_aussie

Appears that there were some people upset by the majority elected government.

So a few protesters hit the streets and that's the end of the majority elected government, by the army that serves the elected government.

WTF type of country is egypt?

It's spring time again, send in the cleaners.

Egyptions have a problem with understanding why they had democratic elections.

Egypt is one of many countries that cannot handle democracy.

As soon as the one side/party gets elected, the opposition turn violent and deaths follow, then the destruction of infrastructure.

When will they learn, has their society tried to evolve too quickly.

Jonny7

old_aussie wrote: »

Appears that there were some people upset by the majority elected government.

So a few protesters hit the streets and that's the end of the majority elected government, by the army that servers the elected government.

That wasn't a few protesters.

To put it simply, the Muslim Brotherhood was really the only group organised enough to field a party during the last elections (not surprising considering decades of opposition not tolerated) a bit like the BNP being the only party in a fledgling democracy.

The next crowd to get elected in better have their act together, the Egyptians have a taste for protest now.

cyberhog

Jonny7 wrote: »

That wasn't a few protesters.

It doesn't matter how many protestors were involved. A democratically elected government was overthrown by illegitimate means.

Jonny7 wrote: »

the Egyptians have a taste for protest now.

Protesting is fine as long as it doesn't lead to a military coup.

Jonny7

cyberhog wrote: »

It doesn't matter how many protestors were involved. A democratically elected government was overthrown by illegitimate means.

I agree, and in black and white terms you are absolutely right.

However, the reality on the ground is that the military have pulled off a highly popular coup, and they've done it very well so far, carefully aligning themselves with virtually every group bar the MB and Gamaa Islamists

Anyway, it's done, no turning back now, Egyptians just have to hope they stick to their promises to pave the way for future elections.

Protesting is fine as long as it doesn't lead to a military coup.

Yes because a military coup is a terrible thing, whereas a dictator slaughtering his own people for protesting is practically to be cheered on

Extremely bizarre set of principles going on there

eireannBEAR

Jonny7 wrote: »

I agree, and in black and white terms you are absolutely right.

However, the reality on the ground is that the military have pulled off a highly popular coup, and they've done it very well so far, carefully aligning themselves with virtually every group bar the MB and Gamaa Islamists

Anyway, it's done, no turning back now, Egyptians just have to hope they stick to their promises to pave the way for future elections.




Yes because a military coup is a terrible thing, whereas a dictator slaughtering his own people for protesting is practically to be cheered on

Extremely bizarre set of principles going on there

yes that was an incredible efficient coup,but its going to be followed by years of suicide bombings...mark my words. im sure islamists from all over the arab world are making their way there now, as we speak.

Jonny7

eireannBEAR wrote: »

yes that was an incredible efficient coup,but its going to be followed by years of suicide bombings...mark my words. im sure islamists from all over the arab world are making their way there now, as we speak.

Seems doubtful.

The MB was representative of itself, not of hardline Islamists, therefore they won't be flocking to "avenge" - also Egypt, with it's precious tourism, has been difficult for jihadists and extremists over the years.

If, however the military did something very stupid, like martyred Morsi or carried out some heavy miscarriages of justice, then I believe domestic violence is a possibility

partyatmygaff

old_aussie wrote: »

Appears that there were some people upset by the majority elected government.

So a few protesters hit the streets and that's the end of the majority elected government, by the army that servers the elected government.

A few protestors? Well over 20 million signed the petition for his removal and an estimated 33 million protested against him. A far cry from the 13 million who voted for him last year.

Speaking of those 13 million, quite a few of them regretted voting him in as time went by as time went by.

WTF type of country is egypt?
Egyptions have a problem with understanding why they had democratic elections.
Egypt is one of many countries that cannot handle democracy.
As soon as the one side/party gets elected, the opposition turn violent and deaths follow, then the destruction of infrastructure.
When will they learn, has their society tried to evolve too quickly.

Egypt is ruled by its people. There was no major uproar after Morsi was voted in, the 49% who didn't vote him in (and the many others who didn't vote for lack of choice) weren't pleased but they didn't go out and protest.

It's only as the year went by and the Muslim Brotherhood showed their true colours did people start to turn against him and his party. As for violence, the anti-Morsi protestors weren't the ones who instigated any of the relatively limited (given the scale) violence that occurred over the past few days. It was the Pro-Morsi protestors who were being egged on and "armed" with sticks by Brotherhood leaders to go attack the other protestors. They could've sparked a civil war in their desperate bid to cling on to power.

cyberhog wrote: »

It doesn't matter how many protestors were involved. A democratically elected government was overthrown by illegitimate means.

They had the people's support last year, this year they had the people's disdain. The government sets the law of the land. If the government themselves no longer have the support of the people then no law should be able to justify keeping them in power.

Protesting is fine as long as it doesn't lead to a military coup.

What outcome would you have preferred these protests to have? Maintaining the Brotherhood's position despite the fact tens of millions in the country despise them as they continue to ruin the country and curtail freedom of expression and press?

eireannBEAR wrote: »

yes that was an incredible efficient coup,but its going to be followed by years of suicide bombings...mark my words. im sure islamists from all over the arab world are making their way there now, as we speak.

That's very uninformed. The Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists hate each other. Salafists are the other big radical Islamists in Egypt and are even bigger scumbags than the Brotherhood.

If the Muslim Brotherhood thought they could benefit from violence, they could have easily sent in a suicide bomber in to the middle of Tahrir Square over the last few days but they didn't. The best they could was give their supporters hard hats and sticks.

The country's simply far too big and the people have seen far too much for violence from Islamists to have any effect. The people who voted Islamists in last year on the basis of religious belief now by and large hate political Islamism. It's nothing more than using religion as a cheap trick to grab power.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Jaysus he didn't last long did he? It's like Chelsea managers except with serious levels of violence.

eireannBEAR

partyatmygaff i bet you anything there will be a bomb attack by the end of the weekend??

cyberhog

Jonny7 wrote: »

Yes because a military coup is a terrible thing, whereas a dictator slaughtering his own people for protesting is practically to be cheered on

Extremely bizarre set of principles going on there

Pretty sad that you have to resort to that sort of insinuation. The ad hominem attacks really don't strengthen your position.

partyatmygaff

eireannBEAR wrote: »

partyatmygaff i bet you anything there will be a bomb attack by the end of the weekend??

Why would there be a bomb attack by the weekend?

The people already hate the Muslim Brotherhood, if they try and bomb anything all they'll do is stir up even more hate for themselves. If they wanted to scare away people from protesting to save their position, they could have done something on or before the 30th June but they couldn't and didn't.

eireannBEAR

partyatmygaff wrote: »

Why would there be a bomb attack by the weekend?

The people already hate the Muslim Brotherhood, if they try and bomb anything all they'll do is stir up even more hate for themselves. If they wanted to scare away people from protesting to save their position, they could have done something on or before the 30th June but they couldn't and didn't.

the people of afganistan hate being bombed by pakistani kids to,but it still happens.

partyatmygaff

eireannBEAR wrote: »

the people of afganistan hate being bombed by pakistani kids to,but it still happens.

Eh...?

No idea how that's relevant to what I said.