egypt about to collapse??

eireannBEAR

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/02/world/middleeast/egypt-protests.html?hp&_r=0

the egyption army have issued a strong statement to president morsi giving him 48 hours to resolve issues with protesters who want him removed!!

is this the end of the brotherhood??

Nodin

...they survived many a year of violent repression, so I doubt this is the end of them in any final sense. Certainly its looking they'll be out of power for some time.

eireannBEAR

Nodin wrote: »

...they survived many a year of violent repression, so I doubt this is the end of them in any final sense. Certainly its looking they'll be out of power for some time.

its hard to know if that is a good or bad thing,they could be staring at military dictatorship.

smcgiff

eireannBEAR wrote: »

its hard to know if that is a good or bad thing,they could be staring at military dictatorship.

sad to say but military dictatorship > than Islamic Republic

eireannBEAR

smcgiff wrote: »

sad to say but military dictatorship > than Islamic Republic

ah i dont know,at least morsi couldnt attack the people as he didnt contol the army,but if you get a couple of mad army generals who decide ''you know what this aint working we could do a better job'' then the people of egypt couldbe in big trouble i hope im wrong.

but it was a shame after egypts revolution the they ended up with more wanna be controllers just as bad as mubarak but at least he didnt try and tell them how to think.

smcgiff

The military in Egypt seem restrained. If they are left alone, don't get pay cuts etc. and appear to be on the secular side.

eireannBEAR

smcgiff wrote: »

The military in Egypt seem restrained. If they are left alone, don't get pay cuts etc. and appear to be on the secular side.

they tried to hold on to power after mubarak was ousted and a couple of generals were arrested.

people were protesting on the street and the muslim brotherhood had to defy the army and call their bluff by taken office early.

ah we will see how it plays out,eitherway morsi's fecked.

bmaxi

Tourism, one of Egypt's biggest earners, has taken a beating recently, you can see that reflected in the cost of holidays. The economy is fcuked, unemployment is rampant, the currency is worthless. People expected more of the revolution than what was delivered and then Morsi hammered the final nail by trying to turn it into an Islamic Republic by stealth. Hard to believe he was democratically elected but I suppose it was Hobson's choice at the time, they'll have to let all comers in to the next ballot, if any.

Reekwind

smcgiff wrote: »

sad to say but military dictatorship > than Islamic Republic

And it's exactly that attitude that has produced today's mess. The West was happy to deal with Mubarak but when that regime did collapse the result was that a Muslim Brotherhood being the most ideologically and organisationally coherent political group in the country

smcgiff

Reekwind wrote: »

And it's exactly that attitude that has produced today's mess. The West was happy to deal with Mubarak but when that regime did collapse the result was that a Muslim Brotherhood being the most ideologically and organisationally coherent political group in the country

Sorry, I don't follow your argument.

Nodin

smcgiff wrote: »

Sorry, I don't follow your argument.

'Externally imposed and aided regimes only add to the Islamist movements credibility', I think.

smcgiff

Nodin wrote: »

'Externally imposed and aided regimes only add to the Islamist movements credibility', I think.

Which is true, still don't get why he was following it up on my comment. It looks as if western intervention in Syria is a disaster. I get that. It's not as clear cut in Egypt. However, I cannot imagine any likely scenario worse than an Islamic republic for Egypt.

Busted Flat.

Back to military government, they have seen Libya fall asunder, look at Syria, the US, little boy haig, wants to supports the rebels. Anyone see the beheading of the priest. Think of what the west right wing neocon governments have done. What Hitler tried to achieve, pales in comparison.

Reekwind

smcgiff wrote: »

Sorry, I don't follow your argument.

That the current mess and (temporary ascendency) of the Muslim Brotherhood is a direct product of the past several decades of, foreign supported, secular dictatorship

Which is to say, to really spell it out, that "military dictatorship" is not a viable or long-term solution. It simply buttresses the Islamic movement, stunts the development of a secular democratic culture and will ultimately put us right back in the same position again when the next Mubarak is overthrown. Shockingly enough, anti-democracy military coups are rarely the answer

eireannBEAR

Busted Flat. wrote: »

Back to military government, they have seen Libya fall asunder, look at Syria, the US, little boy haig, wants to supports the rebels. Anyone see the beheading of the priest. Think of what the west right wing neocon governments have done. What Hitler tried to achieve, pales in comparison.

did you see the syrian rebel cutting out a government soldiers heart and lungs and eating them? you can view it on youtube.

smcgiff

Reekwind wrote: »

That the current mess and (temporary ascendency) of the Muslim Brotherhood is a direct product of the past several decades of, foreign supported, secular dictatorship

Which is to say, to really spell it out, that "military dictatorship" is not a viable or long-term solution. It simply buttresses the Islamic movement, stunts the development of a secular democratic culture and will ultimately put us right back in the same position again when the next Mubarak is overthrown. Shockingly enough, anti-democracy military coups are rarely the answer

Where I disagree with you is whether an islamic Republic woukd be temporary. I'd say it would be very hard to backtrack from an IR if it bed in.

Busted Flat.

eireannBEAR wrote: »

did you see the syrian rebel cutting out a government soldiers heart and lungs and eating them? you can view it on youtube.

I did, are these the people to take charge in Syria. What sort of world is the west pushing for. The brits are being forced out of Afghanistan, they are trying to put a good face on it. When they depart, who is going to take back control of the country, the people they went in to remove. How many lives were lost for this little expedition, many were not classified as dead but came back with serious brain injury. We now know when these guys come back in pretty awful situations they have to stand in the queue with no support of the clowns that sent them out there.

The clowns that seem to have control of world affairs, seems to have a lot of low life idiots advising them.

Seaneh

I just want to point out that the Egyptian Military have made no moves that show an intention to create a military dictatorship.

They have stated that they will not get involved in the political situation and have only said that they will enforce the will of the people and remove the Muslim Brotherhood from power so that new elections can be held and only if the president doesn't step down himself.

They have showed no desire or willingness to take control of the country and have, so far, only expressed their desire to impose the will of the people of Egypt upon the government. Hopefully they carry on in this manner.

I find it extremely positive that the Military do not bow to the government and instead support the citizens wishes. The military is there to protect the country and it's citizens, not to prop up the government.

audman

eireannBEAR wrote: »

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/02/world/middleeast/egypt-protests.html?hp&_r=0

the egyption army have issued a strong statement to president morsi giving him 48 hours to resolve issues with protesters who want him removed!!

is this the end of the brotherhood??

If Egypt collapses should we not be there to pick help pick them up. Let them not suffer in practical depression like we do as a country on a daily basis. Let's rise up and be counted in the world. It might be too late for us. But I'll be damned if I'm going to let it be too late for the likes of innocent Egyptian kids! It's a cause that needs support and most of all numbers, support and numbers!

Sierra Oscar

One of the main media outlets in Egypt this morning has claimed that President Morsi will resign, or else he will be forced from office by the military this afternoon.

Jonny7

I think Morsi has to go, yes he won in a pretty fair election, but he seems to be creating too much of a rift

I don't think the military want a coup, even though its pretty clear they enjoy their independent status..

I think if Morsi doesn't step down, then the military will just force him to leave and the country will hold further elections

The Muslim brotherhood have lost a huge amount of popularity over the last year

cyberhog

Jonny7 wrote: »

I think if Morsi doesn't step down, then the military will just force him to leave and the country will hold further elections

The Islamist base appears ready to fight should the Army try to remove Morsi by force.

Mohamed Morsi loyalists ready to fight to preserve Islamist rule


For many Islamists, the removal of Morsi from power would be a coup not just against him but against Islam as they perceive it

Patrick Kingsley in Cairo
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 2 July 2013


For many their backing of Morsi goes beyond support for his democratic legitimacy. The battle for Morsi is also a battle for the concept of political Islam, or the idea that the state should be run according to Islamist principles.

"Myself, I hate Morsi," says Badr Badradin, an advertising agent who feels Morsi hasn't done enough to promote Islamist rule. "But it's not just about Morsi. It's about the future of political Islam. He just happens to be its face right now." Outside the mosque this week Islamists have often pointedly chanted: "Seculars will not rule Egypt again."

...

"Any coup of any sort will only pass over our dead bodies," said Mohamed el-Beltagy, a senior Brotherhood official, at the rally on Monday night. He called for "families in all Egyptian governorates and villages to be prepared to take to the streets and fill squares" to support their president.

In the eyes of many Morsi supporters the 2011 uprising was an Islamic one, and it is now being disrupted by saboteurs loyal to the ousted dictator Hosni Mubarak. "Now we're seeing the revolution being threatened," says Mohamed Sherif Abdeen, an IT teacher and member of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood.

Many Islamists – not just in the Brotherhood – would be out of control," said Khalil al-Anani, a specialist on Islamism at Durham University, who warned that the fall of Morsi would radicalise scores of young Islamists. "For them, this would be a coup not just against the president but against Islam as they perceive it – and this is one of the problems facing Morsi at the moment. He can't satisfy the opposition if he doesn't step down, nor his social base if he does."

"It's fine," says Mohamed Tariq, a 16-year-old student at a new pro-Morsi rally in west Cairo. "If he goes down, we'll bring down the president they elect. It's either an Islamist state, or we get martyred."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/02/mohamed-morsi-loyalists-islamist

eireannBEAR

oh...and like that hes gone.

i wonder what will happen to him now,will he be allowed to run for government again or will he be arrested/exiled??

Iwasfrozen

Don't know if anyone's posted this yet but here's a live cam onto the celebrations in Cairo after Morsi's ousting. Pretty amazing stuff and I hope the secularists win through.

http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News/80938159

It always strikes me that the Islamic world is a good example to show democracy is not always the best option. Sometimes you have to suspend democracy in order to guarantee the rights of the individual.

Busted Flat.

It is a great day for Egypt, and a great day for democracy, when the opposition do not like the result, call in the army. Well when we look at it, it's like an Irish spring, it's just a continuation of winter.

wes

No fan of Morsi or his party, but this will not end well for anyone imho. A military coup is not the answer, and any government from here on, will simply not have any legitimacy for a huge chunk of the Egyptian electorate.

Basically, the people who voted for Morsi will now be just as pissed as the current protesters, and they will have a legitimate grievance as he was democratically elected and removed by the military.

Now Morsi did himself no favors either, as he did alienate a huge section of the Egyptian electorate, to the point, where they seem to be welcoming a military coup. However, with this coup, i believe Morsi's opponents have shown themselves to be no better than Morsi

Its seems neither the Muslim Brotherhood or there opponents are big on democracy sadly.

If neither side is capable of compromise, i can see things descending into chaos, and I certainly hope things don't turn out that way.

IMHO, if the Muslim Brotherhood, are blocked from contesting elections, then the new government will simply have no legitimacy. The best thing now, would be to let them contest elections, as I think they will lose this time round, as they were frankly terrible in government. Now allowing them to contest elections will imho result in disaster.

Iwasfrozen

wes wrote: »

No fan of Morsi or his party, but this will not end well for anyone imho. A military coup is not the answer, and any government from here on, will simply not have any legitimacy for a huge chunk of the Egyptian electorate.

Basically, the people who voted for Morsi will now be just as pissed as the current protesters, and they will have a legitimate grievance as he was democratically elected and removed by the military.

Now Morsi did himself no favors either, as he did alienate a huge section of the Egyptian electorate, to the point, where they seem to be welcoming a military coup. However, with this coup, i believe Morsi's opponents have shown themselves to be no better than Morsi

Its seems neither the Muslim Brotherhood or there opponents are big on democracy sadly.

If neither side is capable of compromise, i can see things descending into chaos, and I certainly hope things don't turn out that way.

IMHO, if the Muslim Brotherhood, are blocked from contesting elections, then the new government will simply have no legitimacy. The best thing now, would be to let them contest elections, as I think they will lose this time round, as they were frankly terrible in government. Now allowing them to contest elections will imho result in disaster.

As I've said, sometimes democracy has to be suspended to guarantee the rights of the individual.

wes

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

As I've said, sometimes democracy has to be suspended to guarantee the rights of the individual.

The last dictator was a former General, so the military hasn't best record in guarantying the rights of anyone. The military ran rough shod over individual rights for years. Now maybe they have changed, and that remains to be seen, but I think its best to be cautious, as I see a potential pandoras box being opened rights now. IMHO, the protesters would be fools to trust the military, and they may need to take to the streets, very quickly again if they decide to hold onto power.

**EDIT**
Security forces raid Al Jazeera Egyptian TV channel

If the above is any indication, the military are already screwing things up. This isn't a good start at all.
**END EDIT*

Iwasfrozen

wes wrote: »

The last dictator was a former General, so the military hasn't best record in guarantying the rights of anyone. The military ran rough shod over individual rights for years. Now maybe they have changed, and that remains to be seen, but I think its best to be cautious, as I see a potential pandoras box being opened rights now.

Cautious yes but if you look at a secular Islamic state like Turkey the military has historically played a very important role in holding back the more radical elements and enforcing secularism.

wes

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Cautious yes but if you look at a secular Islamic state like Turkey the military has historically played a very important role in holding back the more radical elements and enforcing secularism.

The military in Turkey also had a habit of butchering Kurds on a regular basis, so there hardly a great example to use.

In fairness the Turkish military did hand back power voluntarily, but there very much the exception.

Also, it is far better that people compromise via the democratic process, as opposed to having the military come in and topple governments. All you will end up with is a viscous cycle

hfallada

The economist magazine knew from asking people the country would be a mess by the summer. It was kept afloat for the last few months from other arab states. But they were sick of giving money Egypt. Also Egypts foreign currency reserves were rapidly being used up and the economist estimated that the cities would be in darkness by mid summer as they would run out of money to buy anything.

I hope I doesnt turn into an oppressive country like Iran.

Iwasfrozen

wes wrote: »

The military in Turkey also had a habit of butchering Kurds on a regular basis, so there hardly a great example to use.

In fairness the Turkish military did hand back power voluntarily, but there very much the exception.

Also, it is far better that people compromise via the democratic process, as opposed to having the military come in and topple governments. All you will end up with is a viscous cycle

Well yes, democratic compromise would be ideal but when a large portion of the population are religious nutjobs who desire oppressive regimes then the military has a duty to prevent this. All I'm saying is freedom > democracy when it comes to crunch.

old_aussie

Religion should stay well out of politics.

You've just gotta step back and watch Egypt implode.

eireannBEAR

old_aussie wrote: »

Religion should stay well out of politics.

You've just gotta step back and watch Egypt implode.

allahu akbar. :pac:

Scofflaw

wes wrote: »

The military in Turkey also had a habit of butchering Kurds on a regular basis, so there hardly a great example to use.

In fairness the Turkish military did hand back power voluntarily, but there very much the exception.

Also, it is far better that people compromise via the democratic process, as opposed to having the military come in and topple governments. All you will end up with is a viscous cycle

There's a difficulty with respect to religious rules, though, which is that they're not really susceptible to democratic compromise, on account of being eternal verities. If God says "thou shalt not do x" it's generally not accepted by the faithful that you can simply outvote that - no amount of votes can make what's wrong right.

cordially,
Scofflaw

eireannBEAR

300 arrest warrants issued for the muslim brotherhood,morsi is being held by the military.

i dont agree with this,at the end of the day he didnt break the law.

Reekwind

Scofflaw wrote: »

There's a difficulty with respect to religious rules, though, which is that they're not really susceptible to democratic compromise, on account of being eternal verities. If God says "thou shalt not do x" it's generally not accepted by the faithful that you can simply outvote that - no amount of votes can make what's wrong right

Somebody should tell that to the Christian Democracy parties that have been a mainstay of European politics since the war

The root problem here is not religion but the failure of secular authorities in the Arab world in the past century. There was no room for moderate Muslim opposition to the likes of Mubarak and so an alternative, one that rejected secular state structures, took shape. I don't see this coup addressing that key faultline

eireannBEAR wrote:

300 arrest warrants issued for the muslim brotherhood,morsi is being held by the military.

i dont agree with this,at the end of the day he didnt break the law.

Military coups are, by definition, extrajudicial. Nothing about these events is legal or otherwise respects the law

wes

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Well yes, democratic compromise would be ideal but when a large portion of the population are religious nutjobs who desire oppressive regimes then the military has a duty to prevent this. All I'm saying is freedom > democracy when it comes to crunch.

Again, the military doesn't necessarily represent freedom, and disenfranchising a huge amount of the populace regardless of what they believe, doesn't end well imho.

Neither side is coming out looking good here, and I think your ignoring the huge and imho very likely potential for things to go badly wrong.

biko

eireannBEAR wrote: »

is this the end of the brotherhood??

Inshallah!

But in honesty, when the military steps in it usually gets worse. Hopefully not this time.

wes

Scofflaw wrote: »

There's a difficulty with respect to religious rules, though, which is that they're not really susceptible to democratic compromise, on account of being eternal verities. If God says "thou shalt not do x" it's generally not accepted by the faithful that you can simply outvote that - no amount of votes can make what's wrong right.

A fair point, and as I said earlier Morsi did himself no favours, with the way he was running things. He should have stepped down imho, as he clearly lost legitimacy, but I fail to see people behind a military coup being any better than him, and this sets a very bad example for Egypt, and regardless of one feeling on Religion and politics, the fact remains that a lot of people support Morsi, and a military coup is a recipe for disaster.

Hopefully things work out, but I don't see it as being likely.

The following article from Juan Coles blog, says things better than I do:
Egypt’s “Revocouption” and the future of Democracy on the Nile

Scofflaw

I wouldn't really agree that a military coup is necessarily a recipe for disaster. The downside risk is certainly large, but not guaranteed to materialise.

cordially,
Scofflaw

wes

Scofflaw wrote: »

I wouldn't really agree that a military coup is necessarily a recipe for disaster. The downside risk is certainly large, but not guaranteed to materialise.

cordially,
Scofflaw

There are certainly no guarantees, and its possible that both sides don't do something stupid to escalate things. Its just that from what I know of both sides, I think there is a good change that the Muslim brotherhood, or military will do something very stupid and things could easily escalate beyond there control.

Jonny7

It's early days yet, I think the country was headed toward a definite trainwreck with Morsi at the helm, such was the growing animosity toward him, especially over the creeping islamifaction and the economy

What has happened is entirely illegal - however I think in a choice between chaos and the current procedings, then the current is the better option

The Muslim Brotherhood were one of the only coherent parties after Mubarak fell, mainly due to the fact that opposition was pretty scarce during the last decades - and many seem to feel that this is the only reason the MB got in in the first place

bmaxi

eireannBEAR wrote: »

300 arrest warrants issued for the muslim brotherhood,morsi is being held by the military.

i dont agree with this,at the end of the day he didnt break the law.

No, he just lied, imposed his opinions, ignored the majority of the population, favoured his own and denied dignity to the working classes. A bit like Enda Kenny in other words, maybe we should round up the cabinet. On me way to Cathal Brugha barracks to rally the lads as we speak
Seriously, this is the sort of scenario that played out in Ireland from the 1920s to the 1980s when an extreme religious movement and their toadies controlled the state, it's just that a much larger portion of the population here was in thrall to that religious movement and so the country lacked volatility, such was also the case in Iran in the 1970s when the Ayatollahs first came to power. It was just such a prospect, IMO, plus the prospect of zero funds from the West for a fundamentalist government that prompted the unrest and the military intervention in Egypt but military intervention has a particularly bad history in this region.

An Coilean

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Don't know if anyone's posted this yet but here's a live cam onto the celebrations in Cairo after Morsi's ousting. Pretty amazing stuff and I hope the secularists win through.

http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News/80938159

It always strikes me that the Islamic world is a good example to show democracy is not always the best option. Sometimes you have to suspend democracy in order to guarantee the rights of the individual.

Its all well and good when its going your way, but the army stepping into politics is a doubble edged sword. I think the army will keep faith and allow free elections again but if they do one of the principle tasks of the new administration will be to bring the army to heel and make sure this does not happen to a democratically elected government again.

eireannBEAR

bmaxi wrote: »

No, he just lied, imposed his opinions, ignored the majority of the population, favoured his own and denied dignity to the working classes. A bit like Enda Kenny in other words, maybe we should round up the cabinet. On me way to Cathal Brugha barracks to rally the lads as we speak
Seriously, this is the sort of scenario that played out in Ireland from the 1920s to the 1980s when an extreme religious movement and their toadies controlled the state, it's just that a much larger portion of the population here was in thrall to that religious movement and so the country lacked volatility, such was also the case in Iran in the 1970s when the Ayatollahs first came to power. It was just such a prospect, IMO, plus the prospect of zero funds from the West for a fundamentalist government that prompted the unrest and the military intervention in Egypt but military intervention has a particularly bad history in this region.

i dont support him,but he had the majority of support so you are wrong there.

any new government will be a puppet state run by generals. and mubarak era judges.

wes

Egyptian authorities target Al Jazeera

Clamping down on the media like this, is a very bad sign. We may be looking at a very shaky road ahead.

bmaxi

eireannBEAR wrote: »

i dont support him,but he had the majority of support so you are wrong there.

any new government will be a puppet state run by generals. and mubarak era judges.

Not exactly, he got a majority of a minority. Many Egyptians were disenchanted with the fare on offer in the election and did not vote. When you have a situation like that, where you have one group of dedicated people who will vote to a man for their candidate and another group apathetic, the result is almost inevitable.
The Army was never going to go away in Egypt, too deeply entrenched. Morsi chose the wrong strategy and was a poor choice for the task in hand, not amenable enough.

old_aussie

Appears that there were some people upset by the majority elected government.

So a few protesters hit the streets and that's the end of the majority elected government, by the army that serves the elected government.

WTF type of country is egypt?

It's spring time again, send in the cleaners.

Egyptions have a problem with understanding why they had democratic elections.

Egypt is one of many countries that cannot handle democracy.

As soon as the one side/party gets elected, the opposition turn violent and deaths follow, then the destruction of infrastructure.

When will they learn, has their society tried to evolve too quickly.

Jonny7

old_aussie wrote: »

Appears that there were some people upset by the majority elected government.

So a few protesters hit the streets and that's the end of the majority elected government, by the army that servers the elected government.

That wasn't a few protesters.

To put it simply, the Muslim Brotherhood was really the only group organised enough to field a party during the last elections (not surprising considering decades of opposition not tolerated) a bit like the BNP being the only party in a fledgling democracy.

The next crowd to get elected in better have their act together, the Egyptians have a taste for protest now.

cyberhog

Jonny7 wrote: »

That wasn't a few protesters.

It doesn't matter how many protestors were involved. A democratically elected government was overthrown by illegitimate means.

Jonny7 wrote: »

the Egyptians have a taste for protest now.

Protesting is fine as long as it doesn't lead to a military coup.