Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

farmersfriend

whelan2 wrote: »

have to be in house here for 7.45 to get eldest lad out and back in for 8.30 to get others out. Everything has to be ready the night before. I love the peace and quiet at 9am

Exact same here,

Timmaay

awaywithyou wrote: »

25 rows here upto 2 months ago.... New machine switched on then... Getting it done in 6 rounds now if ye get my drift...

Best money ever spent...

Jezz, must of been some upgrade, from 6units to 20/24??? What machine did ya get, and more importantly any photos ha?

darragh_haven

Timmaay wrote: »

Jezz, must of been some upgrade, from 6units to 20/24??? What machine did ya get, and more importantly any photos ha?

He said he upgraded to rounds....... not rows

whelan2

http://www.donedeal.ie/dairycattle-for-sale/glanbia-dairygold-fat-cats-merger/10479165?offset=6

WheatenBriar

whelan2 wrote: »

http://www.donedeal.ie/dairycattle-for-sale/glanbia-dairygold-fat-cats-merger/10479165?offset=6

Aye, they have their members well brainwashed though when their members ignore the fact they're not getting a decent pay for their work and think the falls 30c high solids price is good(it should be near 50 ffs)..
But as long as the farm keeps running... Shur its alright says the board member..
You keep farming lads and we'll keep paying ourselves our fat bonuses and company cars..

kowtow

stanflt wrote: »

I hate being negative but all indications are for a lower milk price than this years avg- double dip recession possibly on the cards- frontera aren't selling all there product- Ireland is putting large amounts into storage- soya and maize meal seriously low price- currency could change etc

No point bitching about it as these are the indicators

No point blaming new entrants etc etc as this is reality and be prepared for lows and highs

I would be delighted if milk didn't drop below 25 for the next 12 months

Absolutely, + 1000

The extensive coverage given to the GDT price bounce (on managed lower volume) is evidence of journalists & commentators clutching at straws.

Fundamentally we have a lower commodity complex (possibly for the medium term & longer), anaemic demand, and significant inventory both of milk products & grains from so many of them come.

Add strong production by countries (see the 150 cow US dairy farm in the journal) where local production remains profitable and it is difficult to see any bullish case for world commodity milk at least in the near term.

Against that, the Ornua index appears to suggest that we are producing something further up the value chain than a commodity. On the other hand, we have put 1100t into intervention at what - 21c ? .. these two contrasting figures are close to home and highlight the case for transparency.

Are we selling profitable, differentiated milk to a grateful world or are we plundering our co-ops balance sheets? Or both?

WheatenBriar

Unfortunately I agree that world milk prices are tied by the vultures who trade in milk products to world commodity prices
Ergo there is continued downward pressure

Predicting the future of those though and we are back to guys not able to forecast rain in a hurricane

Buford T. Justice XIX

Fonterra increase payout forecast to 4.60, up 75c:)

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/new-zealand-dairy-farmers-get-boost-as-fonterra-increases-its-forecast-payout/

kevthegaff

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Fonterra increase payout forecast to 4.60, up 75c:)

http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/new-zealand-dairy-farmers-get-boost-as-fonterra-increases-its-forecast-payout/

Is this to instill confidence into the market? This, holding product from the gdt, lower forecast perhaps are tactics to get buyers back in the market..

kowtow

kevthegaff wrote: »

Is this to instill confidence into the market? This, holding product from the gdt, lower forecast perhaps are tactics to get buyers back in the market..

I could be wrong, but as it is a dividend surely it is simply the distribution of last years (high) profits?

frazzledhome

whelan2 wrote: »

http://www.donedeal.ie/dairycattle-for-sale/glanbia-dairygold-fat-cats-merger/10479165?offset=6

What was on this ad?

kevthegaff

frazzledhome wrote: »

What was on this ad?

Basically a rant at dairygold and glanbia, how the mergers were a disaster and that they pay the farmers crap. Not sure what he was selling tho

atlantic mist

opec predicting oil price to increase to 80 dollars per barrel by 2020, oil and milk have followed similar trends over the years

Ad mentioned talk to merging coops at meetings...only a method to deflect from price, amalgamation of coops would not result in an increased milk price, having competition in our domestic market is important, we could sell everything throu ornua and just keep the coops as investment vehicles, reduce 2 management teams, ornua might set up R&D over here then instead of spain

were only tied to gdt as much as we allow, we dont trade in it, our ornua pi index continuously outperforms the market(only representative of some of our products which is similar to gdt) why is this if customers are beating them down wit gdt prices?

kowtow

atlantic mist wrote:

opec predicting oil price to increase to 80 dollars per barrel by 2020, oil and milk have followed similar trends over the years

There's a school of thought that has oil returning slowly to reach 2010 levels by 2020. That's what opec are reflecting there.

atlantic mist

EU Milk Price Jul-15

Belgomilk (Milcobel) 28.49
Alois Muller 26.87
DMK (Nordmilch) 27.17
Arla Foods Denmark 28.90
Hameenlinnan.O. 37.78
Bongrain CLE 33.91
Danone 37.76
Lactalis 33.57
Sodiaal 32.81
First Milk 27.28
Dairy Crest Davidstow 35.26
Glanbia 24.98
Kerry 26.52
Granarolo 38.29
DOC Kaas 24.67
Campina 29.17

Average **** 30.84

red bull

From 38 /l to 24c/l Euro league. Ireland at the base. World market we are told. Is small domestic market the Irish problem pricewise ?

WheatenBriar

Oil and milk
They're such similar commodities
Of course their price should be related
I pour crude on my cornflakes all the time
Yummy

kowtow

red bull wrote:

From 38 /l to 24c/l Euro league. Ireland at the base. World market we are told. Is small domestic market the Irish problem pricewise ?

Yup I would think so - higher % of our milk goes to global surplus / commodity markets.

Dawggone

I'm not altogether sure that the globalisation of markets are beneficial to farmers. Back in the day before world markets home grown cereals always commanded a premium over imports because we couldn't (as now) fill our requirements. Nowadays native cereals are priced in at world market prices. Qui Bono?
So the world market is always going to be the price platform that farmers get paid. In France I think that around 85% of milk produced is used on the home market and for the moment native French milk gets a few cents above world market price...this may not last too much longer.
Am I wrong in thinking that global markets benefit multinational companies at the expense of farmers?

atlantic mist

i only put up eu price league

Fonterra 19.76
USA 37.13
Emmi A.G.(CHINA) 56.91
for the same july period

shows processors can and are paying more than what ours are paying, were only a dot on the export scene, bigger eu players than us exporting globally and their able to pay a better milk price to suppliers

what % of our product goes to foreign markets outside of eu?

china nz biggest trading partner n yet they set their price at 19 and china domestic market at 56

kowtow

atlantic mist wrote: »

i only put up eu price league

shows processors can and are paying more than what ours are paying, were only a dot on the export scene, bigger eu players than us exporting globally and their able to pay a better milk price to suppliers

what % of our product goes to foreign markets outside of eu?

china nz biggest trading partner n yet they set their price at 19 and china domestic market at 56

Not saying that processors are paying all they could, but I'm pretty sure price in the other EU players reflects the local liquid market.

You have to think of it as a blended, two tier system. The local liquid price keeps the average price up so average price is a function of how much milk is absorbed locally and how much is surplus for export.

In Ireland average price is a function of how much is high value branded products / how much is surplus, on the basis that the local liquid market is tiny as a fraction of the whole.

Could be wrong but thats the way I read the prices; note that countries with a higher export % are nearer the bottom - Ireland, Denmark...

Actually thats where the great deception of "most competitive milk in Europe" really hits... even if you accept that our costs are low (on the basis that we are stupid enough to work for nothing and our land is free)... we are also condemned to the low price end of the market.

Simply not true to say Ireland will succeed because it will be the "last man standing" when other EU countries have a profitable local market to supply.

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

Not



Actually thats where the great deception of "most competitive milk in Europe" really hits... even if you accept that our costs are low (on the basis that we are stupid enough to work for nothing and our land is free)... we are also condemned to the low price end of the market.

Simply not true to say Ireland will succeed because it will be the "last man standing" when other EU countries have a profitable local market to supply.

+1.
I've railed against that business model for quite a while now.

kowtow

Dawggone wrote: »

Am I wrong in thinking that global markets benefit multinational companies at the expense of farmers?

No, I think you are exactly right. And there is no greater fan of global markets than me -

But everyone hates the corporation nowadays, and probably quite rightly when corporate behaviour often amounts to an abuse of power or scale, and the abuser gets to shape the regulatory environment in which they work. It's easy to be a great footballer if you are the only one on the field who knows where the boundaries are.

I'd like to think the impetus for localisation (and the premium it affords farmers) can come from a change of mindset among primary producers and primary consumers - and I think there is some evidence for that change happening. We don't really need global food trade in the way we are conditioned to think we do.

I wonder if there is a lesson to be learned here from the French, or the Italians, who seem to have at least stronger ties to their own producers than the anglo-saxons (Irish included). Why do (our consumers) accept second best and mediocre quite so easily? Surely it takes a particularly extreme form of self-loathing for the population to fall for chicken nuggets?

Dawggone

kowtow wrote: »

I wonder if there is a lesson to be learned here from the French, or the Italians, who seem to have at least stronger ties to their own producers than the anglo-saxons (Irish included). Why do (our consumers) accept second best and mediocre quite so easily? Surely it takes a particularly extreme form of self-loathing for the population to fall for chicken nuggets?

Lol. Chicken nuggets would be in the top ten of the protein intakes of children nowadays!

Ireland is a small open economy that is trying to overcome a disconnect from locally produced edibles. Slow progress is being made as the provenance of our food becomes more important. However the 4+mil pop is tiny and wouldn't even account for the spilled Irish dairy produce. But we do have nearly 500mil people on our doorstep and with some R&D and a sprinkle of ingenuity, who knows? It doesn't help either that we wouldn't be known as a nation of culinary savants...

kowtow

Dawggone wrote: »

Lol. Chicken nuggets would be in the top ten of the protein intakes of children nowadays!

Ireland is a small open economy that is trying to overcome a disconnect from locally produced edibles. Slow progress is being made as the provenance of our food becomes more important. However the 4+mil pop is tiny and wouldn't even account for the spilled Irish dairy produce. But we do have nearly 500mil people on our doorstep and with some R&D and a sprinkle of ingenuity, who knows? It doesn't help either that we wouldn't be known as a nation of culinary savants...

An interesting idea I heard recently is that localisation does not necessarily need to be a geographical thing - fair trade coffee, for example, is an example of the ultimate consumer making it his/her business to become "close" to the primary producer, the connection being shared values rather than pure proximity.

On that basis Ireland ought to have a strong start, not difficult to get the world to engage with our image as a wet, green, nation full of family farms... and I suppose to a large extent that is what bord bia et. al. are trying to do..... it needs more, though, than top down window dressing & commodity milk powder to really make things happen.

We have an unfortunate habit sometimes of declaring something to be true and then refusing to believe that it isn't. A classic example is the touted image of Cork as "food capital of Ireland / Europe"... I'm sorry to say that the reality is long way behind what we'd like the tourists to think.

whelan2

This might be of interest to some people http://www.donedeal.ie/dairycattle-for-sale/for-sale-icmsa-re-glanbia-co-op-shares/10501789?offset=12

Sacrolyte

whelan2 wrote: »

This might be of interest to some people http://www.donedeal.ie/dairycattle-for-sale/for-sale-icmsa-re-glanbia-co-op-shares/10501789?offset=12

Ad removed. Anything interesting?

whelan2

Sacrolyte wrote: »

Ad removed. Anything interesting?

a meeting about the legality of with holding the bonus of milk price to those who are not shared up in certain co-ops, meeting is in cavan on 30th september icmsa are holding it

jaymla627

whelan2 wrote: »

This might be of interest to some people http://www.donedeal.ie/dairycattle-for-sale/for-sale-icmsa-re-glanbia-co-op-shares/10501789?offset=12

Is it a well kept secret our something, noting on the iscma website about it taking place, you'd imagen it would of been flagged/advertised alot better then a add in donedeal on a issue that affects over a 1000 dairy farmers

jaymla627

Big brother must be watching us haha