Milk Price- Please read Mod note in post #1

Dawggone

stanflt wrote: »

I hate being negative but all indications are for a lower milk price than this years avg- double dip recession possibly on the cards- frontera aren't selling all there product- Ireland is putting large amounts into storage- soya and maize meal seriously low price- currency could change etc

No point bitching about it as these are the indicators

No point blaming new entrants etc etc as this is reality and be prepared for lows and highs

I would be delighted if milk didn't drop below 25 for the next 12 months

Thanks Stan.
People that say it like it is are NOT negative. It's called pragmatic...one can get shouted down for detailing facts!


I didn't think that Irish processors were putting much product into storage? Maybe Kowtow would know tonnage?

Anyhow I'm a bit concerned about the price bumping along the bottom for a while yet. China not looking too hot...major surpluses of grains...the U.S. having a "guaranteed" margin on milk etc etc.
Having said that things could change pretty fast also, be it a drought or some geopolitical mess up or whatever.


BTW what egits are blaming new entrants??Mind blowing ignorance!

darragh_haven

Could someone explain how the gaurenteed margin works in the USA

mf240

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Why are milk quota's still on the posted statements and more importantly why do they include what you temporary leased last year?
I'm asking because if the compensation deal is based on that figure,you'd be paid on quota plus temporary leasing not quota

On one page they have written "This page is blank."

Surely its not blank anymore then???

Should it not say this page "was " blank.

Dawggone

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

Must be a typo, it's definitely 70%

Same old shyte every year Clyde. Back in July or early Aug when farmers started complaining Brussels said they would release 70% early...all the countries had to do was ask...
Also this yearly 'announcement' at the ploughing (?) of 50% payed early is standard across Europe. Why is it pedaled as ministerial largesse?


Now must finish pit maize this evening!

mf240

stanflt wrote: »

Time to buckle down

family car being changed- this is my only option

Are there pedals in it or an engine. ?

whelan2

RightTurnClyde wrote: »

I've heard lots of interviews where he is saying there will be an upturn next year but I've ye to hear 1 reason from him why there should be an upturn.

only 1 is that he mightnt be minister of agriculture then

WheatenBriar

Look
Nobody knows what milk price will do next year
People predicting in the past didnt predict the short lived rise in 2007 or last year for that matter, just stabs in the dark,some lucky some not
According to Coveny for example China has taken more product from us this year than last,yet china is cited in other areas as a reason for price falls
The U.S dollar was supposed to hit parity or above the euro according to many 'analysts' in the last 2 years-also wrong

Analyst's have poor reputations if you ask me,they couldn't predict rain in a hurricane

RightTurnClyde

Dawggone wrote: »

Same old shyte every year Clyde. Back in July or early Aug when farmers started complaining Brussels said they would release 70% early...all the countries had to do was ask...
Also this yearly 'announcement' at the ploughing (?) of 50% payed early is standard across Europe. Why is it pedaled as ministerial largesse?


Now must finish pit maize this evening!

Dawg, I agree, and the 7th of Sept Brussels meeting was a total joke.
I got lambasted yesterday in the Teagasc tent for saying that there was no improvement on the horizon. When I asked for one reason why there should be an improvement in 2016, the response I got was that I was "a naysayer " and that I was being negative. ( I was waiting for someone who to tell me to 'don the green jersey).
The likes of the minister and Teagasc telling us 'black is white' can't be good for the industry and is only making it harder for individual farmers who are trying to plan and budget for the next 12 months.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Dawggone wrote: »

Same old shyte every year Clyde. Back in July or early Aug when farmers started complaining Brussels said they would release 70% early...all the countries had to do was ask...
Also this yearly 'announcement' at the ploughing (?) of 50% payed early is standard across Europe. Why is it pedaled as ministerial largesse?


Now must finish pit maize this evening!

We have a peculiar relationship with Europe.

Anything bad that happens in agriculture can easily be blamed on EU rules while any money received by us from the EU, despite it coming by right, is painted as 'plucky Ireland taking on big bad EU', trying to give the impression that our representatives have an influence at the big table.

The reality is that we have little or none!

Deepsouthwest

stanflt wrote: »

I hate being negative but all indications are for a lower milk price than this years avg- double dip recession possibly on the cards- frontera aren't selling all there product- Ireland is putting large amounts into storage- soya and maize meal seriously low price- currency could change etc

No point bitching about it as these are the indicators

No point blaming new entrants etc etc as this is reality and be prepared for lows and highs

I would be delighted if milk didn't drop below 25 for the next 12 months

Ouch, that's hard reading Stan, but I have to agree with u. I've been saying for a while I can't see any reason a major price increase in the near future. Inspite of the poor milk price most of the major players are still pumping out milk regardless. What incentive is there for buyers to increase price in this situation.
Having said all that, I just got 35c/l for my august milk, if we're in the middle of a "crisis" then we'll be ok.

Milked out

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Ouch, that's hard reading Stan, but I have to agree with u. I've been saying for a while I can't see any reason a major price increase in the near future. Inspite of the poor milk price most of the major players are still pumping out milk regardless. What incentive is there for buyers to increase price in this situation.
Having said all that, I just got 35c/l for my august milk, if we're in the middle of a "crisis" then we'll be ok.

Will carbery be able to stay ahead of the game thru next spring? Are your early season solids much above base price? If prices start rising in the spring it would be ok but if they stay low thru to the summer then it's a different kettle of fish. End of season solids are taking the sting off the low prices at the moment

kevthegaff

I think dawg was right about get big or get out, if prices are depressed will the average farmer with kids in college, repayments start to exit or expand? Serious expansion at the moment in my parish, 3 new z grazers in the area, is it mad to be increasing cost of production with current prices..

Dawggone

Almost there, few more loads and forage maize finished..






Edit. Put this in the wrong thread. Should be in Dairy thread.

mahoney_j

kevthegaff wrote: »

I think dawg was right about get big or get out, if prices are depressed will the average farmer with kids in college, repayments start to exit or expand? Serious expansion at the moment in my parish, 3 new z grazers in the area, is it mad to be increasing cost of production with current prices..

Yes ,efficiency efficency efficency and more efficency .expansion through z grazers ,more land etc etc should not be considered unless what u already I have is purring along like a well oiled machine ,eg growing and utilising as much grass as possible ,maximising milk solids improving genetics improving soil indexes and ph .

jaymla627

kevthegaff wrote: »

I think dawg was right about get big or get out, if prices are depressed will the average farmer with kids in college, repayments start to exit or expand? Serious expansion at the moment in my parish, 3 new z grazers in the area, is it mad to be increasing cost of production with current prices..

The lely robot/zero - grazing fad we are seeing at the moment is all down to the fact the companies selling the above are providing the finance, over nice long periods with no upfront payments....
seen a lely video the other day where a suckler farmer built a greenfield 130 cow cubicle shed complete with two robots, he was saying how it was only costing 45 euro a day for each robot over 10 years, and the labour savings alone covered this, could see his point only the way things are going we are all basically working for noting at the minute and trying to minimize losses so the paid labour saving scenario can't really come into the equation

Timmaay

45*356*10, thats 165k for each robot. I assume it includes all the servicing etc on the robots? Are they just leasing the robots, after 10years is the robot yours or what?

Sticking to conventional milking for the second, from a labour point of view, OAD milking starts to make a lot of sense if your cowtype allows, as does having plenty of units. I went from 14 to 6 rows this year with the new parlour, don't think I'd ever go back to anything over 10rows again.

stanflt

Timmaay wrote: »

45*356*10, thats 165k for each robot. I assume it includes all the servicing etc on the robots? Are they just leasing the robots, after 10years is the robot yours or what?

Sticking to conventional milking for the second, from a labour point of view, OAD milking starts to make a lot of sense if your cowtype allows, as does having plenty of units. I went from 14 to 6 rows this year with the new parlour, don't think I'd ever go back to anything over 10rows again.

I'll be at 16 next April

Buford T. Justice XIX

stanflt wrote: »

I'll be at 16 next April

But milking is shared by 3 in your parlour, iirc?

It's a whole different ball game with 1 labour unit. A friend of mine is on 12 rounds with a young family and he works crazy hours till he gets his parlour built next year.

stanflt

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

But milking is shared by 3 in your parlour, iirc?

It's a whole different ball game with 1 labour unit. A friend of mine is on 12 rounds with a young family and he works crazy hours till he gets his parlour built next year.

Yeah but it's days like tomorrow that are the problem- the lads are going ploughing in the morning so I've to milk at 5.30 so I can be back home for 8 as the wife has to work and the young lad is sick with hand foot and mouth so I've to mind him during the day-

Greengrass1

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

But milking is shared by 3 in your parlour, iirc?

It's a whole different ball game with 1 labour unit. A friend of mine is on 12 rounds with a young family and he works crazy hours till he gets his parlour built next year.

What well have to do next yr with just over 16 rows going through here us I milk 1st hr amd dad milks 2nd so I can go get grass ready and calves fed.

stanflt

Greengrass1 wrote: »

What well have to do next yr with just over 16 rows going through here us I milk 1st hr amd dad milks 2nd so I can go get grass ready and calves fed.

My auld man is heading to New Zealand on Tuesday for three month and then stopping off in Dubai with the sister for three weeks- he will be badly missed even though we say he does sfa😀

He will be fully charged for mid jan!! Calving starts

Greengrass1

stanflt wrote: »

My auld man is heading to New Zealand on Tuesday for three month and then stopping off in Dubai with the sister for three weeks- he will be badly missed even though we say he does sfa😀

He will be fully charged for mid jan!! Calving starts

Going out to see your brother?


I see the positive farming ppl are bringing a ground if 30 ish out to nz for 3 wks to visit various farms etc. Be great experience. Hopefully next time if they do it ill be better prepared to go

Buford T. Justice XIX

stanflt wrote: »

Yeah but it's days like tomorrow that are the problem- the lads are going ploughing in the morning so I've to milk at 5.30 so I can be back home for 8 as the wife has to work and the young lad is sick with hand foot and mouth so I've to mind him during the day-

I know those days, had them all summer with the kids off and herself working. Hope the wee lad is better soon.

There's nothing easy about this job except spending money:pac:

whelan2

Greengrass1 wrote: »

What well have to do next yr with just over 16 rows going through here us I milk 1st hr amd dad milks 2nd so I can go get grass ready and calves fed.

how long will it take to milk?

whelan2

stanflt wrote: »

Yeah but it's days like tomorrow that are the problem- the lads are going ploughing in the morning so I've to milk at 5.30 so I can be back home for 8 as the wife has to work and the young lad is sick with hand foot and mouth so I've to mind him during the day-

have to be in house here for 7.45 to get eldest lad out and back in for 8.30 to get others out. Everything has to be ready the night before. I love the peace and quiet at 9am

Greengrass1

whelan2 wrote: »

how long will it take to milk?

2 hrs I'm hoping. 1 hr 30 at peak this yr.

Milked out

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

But milking is shared by 3 in your parlour, iirc?

It's a whole different ball game with 1 labour unit. A friend of mine is on 12 rounds with a young family and he works crazy hours till he gets his parlour built next year.

Was at 13 rows this year took out old machine put in 14 unit will be at 10 next spring please god but should be a faster 10 with feeders in parlour. cows here are slow rounding up and thru parlour all year round as wasn't feeding in parlour. Compromised with parlour in staying in old building with lower units but if I get 10 to 15 years here and then move up to cubicles shed with a larger parlour to see me out to retirement. If i stayed with old parlour would have been 15 or 16 rows and a few years before i could look at building new anyway so thats my reasoning.Tank and feeders can be moved up and machine should be still worth a bit to trade or sell. All that could change too tho

Deepsouthwest

whelan2 wrote: »

have to be in house here for 7.45 to get eldest lad out and back in for 8.30 to get others out. Everything has to be ready the night before. I love the peace and quiet at 9am

Reading ur post makes me feel v lazy! Three small kids here now, and I find productivity has dropped off hugely. Wife now on a career break, so not huge pressure on me to be in for certain times, but when they're all at home I find myself spending more and more time inside with them, not complaining, I love hanging out with them, but the farming certainly is taking more of a back seat at the moment!

awaywithyou

25 rows here upto 2 months ago.... New machine switched on then... Getting it done in 6 rounds now if ye get my drift...

Best money ever spent...

dar31

Deepsouthwest wrote: »

Reading ur post makes me feel v lazy! Three small kids here now, and I find productivity has dropped off hugely. Wife now on a career break, so not huge pressure on me to be in for certain times, but when they're all at home I find myself spending more and more time inside with them, not complaining, I love hanging out with them, but the farming certainly is taking more of a back seat at the moment!

Spend all the time you can with them now , once spring come it will be a different story.
They will only remember the time spent with them , not all the hard wotk done for them